A nutrient increment method for reducing bias in global biogeochemical models

Assimilation of physical variables into coupled physical/biogeochemical models poses considerable difficulties. One problem is that data assimilation can break relationships between physical and biological variables. As a consequence, biological tracers, especially nutrients, are incorrectly displaced in the vertical, resulting in unrealistic biogeochemical fields. To prevent this, we present the idea of applying an increment to the nutrient field within a data assimilating model to ensure that nutrient-potential density relationships are maintained within a water column during assimilation. After correcting the nutrients, it is assumed that other biological variables rapidly adjust to the corrected nutrient fields. We applied this method to a 17 year run of the 2° NEMO ocean-ice model coupled to the PlankTOM5 ecosystem model. Results were compared with a control with no assimilation, and with a model with physical assimilation but no nutrient increment. In the nutrient incrementing experiment, phosphate distributions were improved both at high latitudes and at the equator. At midlatitudes, assimilation generated unrealistic advective upwelling of nutrients within the boundary currents, which spread into the subtropical gyres resulting in more biased nutrient fields. This result was largely unaffected by the nutrient increment and is probably due to boundary currents being poorly resolved in a 2° model. Changes to nutrient distributions fed through into other biological parameters altering primary production, air-sea CO2 flux, and chlorophyll distributions. These secondary changes were most pronounced in the subtropical gyres and at the equator, which are more nutrient limited than high latitudes.

A supramolecular polymer based on tweezer-type pi-pi stacking interactions: molecular design for healability and enhanced toughness

An elastomeric, healable, supramolecular polymer blend comprising a chain-folding polyimide and a telechelic polyurethane with pyrenyl end groups is compatibilized by aromatic pi-pi stacking between the pi-electron-deficient diimide groups and the pi-electron-rich pyrenyl units. This interpolymer interaction is the key to forming a tough, healable, elastomeric material. Variable-temperature FTIR analysis of the bulk material also conclusively demonstrates the presence of hydrogen bonding, which complements the pi-pi stacking interactions. Variable-temperature SAXS analysis shows that the healable polymeric blend has a nanophase-separated morphology and that the X-ray contrast between the two types of domain increases with increasing temperature, a feature that is repeatable over several heating and cooling cycles. A fractured sample of this material reproducibly regains more than 95% of the tensile modulus, 91% of the elongation to break, and 77% of the modulus of toughness of the pristine material.

PEGylated amyloid peptide nanocontainer delivery and release system

A micellar nanocontainer delivery and release system is designed on the basis of a peptide-polymer conjugate. The hybrid molecules self-assemble into micelles comprising a modified amyloid peptide core surrounded by a PEG corona. The modified amyloid peptide previously studied in our group forms helical ribbons based on a beta-sheet motif and contains beta-amino acids that are excluded from the beta-sheet structure, thus being potentially useful as fibrillization inhibitors. In the model peptide-PEG hybrid system studied, enzymatic degradation using alpha-chymotrypsin leads to selective cleavage close to the PEG-peptide linkage, break up of the micelles, and release of peptides in unassociated form. The release of monomeric peptide is useful because aggregation of the released peptide into beta-sheet amyloid fibrils is not observed. This concept has considerable potential in the targeted delivery of peptides for therapeutic applications.

Application of molecular biological methods for studying probiotics and the gut flora

Increasingly, the microbiological scientific community is relying on molecular biology to define the complexity of the gut flora and to distinguish one organism from the next. This is particularly pertinent in the field of probiotics, and probiotic therapy, where identifying probiotics from the commensal flora is often warranted. Current techniques, including genetic fingerprinting, gene sequencing, oligonucleotide probes and specific primer selection, discriminate closely related bacteria with varying degrees of success. Additional molecular methods being employed to determine the constituents of complex microbiota in this area of research are community analysis, denaturing gradient gel electrophoresis (DGGE)/temperature gradient gel electrophoresis (TGGE), fluorescent in situ hybridisation (FISH) and probe grids. Certain approaches enable specific aetiological agents to be monitored, whereas others allow the effects of dietary intervention on bacterial populations to be studied. Other approaches demonstrate diversity, but may not always enable quantification of the population. At the heart of current molecular methods is sequence information gathered from culturable organisms. However, the diversity and novelty identified when applying these methods to the gut microflora demonstrates how little is known about this ecosystem. Of greater concern is the inherent bias associated with some molecular methods. As we understand more of the complexity and dynamics of this diverse microbiota we will be in a position to develop more robust molecular-based technologies to examine it. In addition to identification of the microbiota and discrimination of probiotic strains from commensal organisms, the future of molecular biology in the field of probiotics and the gut flora will, no doubt, stretch to investigations of functionality and activity of the microflora, and/or specific fractions. The quest will be to demonstrate the roles of probiotic strains in vivo and not simply their presence or absence.

Is there regime behavior in monsoon convection in the late 20th century?

Mixture model techniques are applied to a daily index of monsoon convection from ERA‐40 reanalysis to show regime behavior. The result is the existence of two significant regimes showing preferred locations of convection within the Asia/Western‐North Pacific domain, with some resemblance to active‐break events over India. Simple trend analysis over 1958–2001 shows that the first regime has become less frequent while the second becomes much more dominant. Both undergo a change in structure contributing to the total OLR trend over the ERA‐40 period. Stratifying the data according to a large‐scale dynamical index of monsoon interannual variability, we show the regime occurrence to be strongly perturbed by the seasonal condition, in agreement with conceptual ideas. This technique could be used to further examine predictability issues relating the seasonal mean and intraseasonal monsoon variability or to explore changes in monsoon behavior in centennial‐scale model integrations.

Molecular dynamics simulations of threadlike cetyltrimethylammonium chloride micelles: effects of sodium chloride and sodium salicylate salts

We use atomistic molecular dynamics simulations to probe the effects of added sodium chloride (NaCl) and sodium salicylate (NaSal) salts on the spherical-to-threadlike micelle shape transition in aqueous solutions of cetyltrimethylammonium chloride (CTAC) surfactants. Long threadlike micelles are found to be unstable and break into spherical micelles at low concentrations or NaCl, but remain stable for 20 ns above a threshold value of [NaCl] approximate to 3.0 M, which is about 2.5 times larger than the experimental salt concentration at which the transition between spherical and rodlike micelles occurs. The chloride counterions associate weakly oil the surface of the CTAC micelles with the degree of counterion dissociation decreasing slightly with increasing [NaCl] on spherical micelles, but dropping significantly on the threadlike micelles tit high [NaCl]. This effect indicates that the electrolyte ions drive the micellar shape transition by screening the electrostatic repulsions between the micellar headgroups, The aromatic salicylate counterions, on the other hand, penetrate inside the micelle with their hydrophilic groups staying in the surfactant headgroup region and the hydrophobic groups partially embedded into the hydrophobic core of the micelle. The strong association of the salicylate ions with the surfactant headgroups leads to dense packing of the surfactant molecules, which effectively reduces the surface area per surfactant, and increases intramicellar ordering of the surfactant headgroups, favoring the formation of long threadlike micelles. Simulation predictions of the geometric and electrostatic properties of the spherical and threadlike micelles are in good agreement with experiments.

An analysis of the impact of R&D on productivity using Bayesian model averaging with a reversible jump algorithm.

A Bayesian Model Averaging approach to the estimation of lag structures is introduced, and applied to assess the impact of R&D on agricultural productivity in the US from 1889 to 1990. Lag and structural break coefficients are estimated using a reversible jump algorithm that traverses the model space. In addition to producing estimates and standard deviations for the coe¢ cients, the probability that a given lag (or break) enters the model is estimated. The approach is extended to select models populated with Gamma distributed lags of di¤erent frequencies. Results are consistent with the hypothesis that R&D positively drives productivity. Gamma lags are found to retain their usefulness in imposing a plausible structure on lag coe¢ cients, and their role is enhanced through the use of model averaging.

Bayesian model averaging and identification of structural breaks in time series

Bayesian Model Averaging (BMA) is used for testing for multiple break points in univariate series using conjugate normal-gamma priors. This approach can test for the number of structural breaks and produce posterior probabilities for a break at each point in time. Results are averaged over specifications including: stationary; stationary around trend and unit root models, each containing different types and number of breaks and different lag lengths. The procedures are used to test for structural breaks on 14 annual macroeconomic series and 11 natural resource price series. The results indicate that there are structural breaks in all of the natural resource series and most of the macroeconomic series. Many of the series had multiple breaks. Our findings regarding the existence of unit roots, having allowed for structural breaks in the data, are largely consistent with previous work.

Sarah Kane: Cool Britannia's reluctant feminist

Aleks Sierz in his important survey of mid 1990s drama has identified the plays of Sarah Kane as exemplars of what he terms ‘In-Yer Face’ theatre. Sierz argues that Kane and her contemporaries such as Mark Ravenhill and Judy Upton represent a break with the ideological concerns of the previous generation of playwrights such as Doug Lucie and Stephen Lowe, whose work was shaped through recognizable political concerns, often in direct opposition to Thatcherism. In contrast Sarah Kane and her generation have frequently been seen as literary embodiments of ‘Thatcher’s Children’, whereby following the fall of the Berlin Wall and the inertia of the Major years, their drama eschews a recognizable political position, and seems more preoccupied with the plight of individuals cut adrift from society. In the case of Sarah Kane her frequently quoted statement, ‘I have no responsibility as a woman writer because I don’t believe there’s such a thing’, has compounded this perception. Moreover, its dogmatism also echoes the infamous comments attributed to Mrs Thatcher regarding the role of the individual to society. However, this article seeks to reassess Kane’s position as a woman writer and will argue that her drama is positioned somewhere between the female playwrights who emerged after 1979 such as Sarah Daniels, Timberlake Wertenbaker and Clare McIntyre, whose drama was distinguished by overtly feminist concerns, and its subsequent breakdown, best exemplified by the brief cultural moment associated with the newly elected Blair government known as ‘Cool Britannia’. Drawing on a variety of sources, including Kane’s unpublished monologues, written while she was a student just after Mrs Thatcher left office, this paper will argue that far from being an exponent of post-feminism, Kane’s drama frequently revisits and is influenced by the generation of dramatists whose work was forged out the sharp ideological positions that characterized the 1980s and a direct consequence of Thatcherism.

Built environment education, research and practice: integrating diverse interests to make an impact

The role of the academic in the built environment seems generally to be not well understood or articulated. While this problem is not unique to our field, there are plenty of examples in a wide range of academic disciplines where the academic role has been fully articulated. But built environment academics have tended not to look beyond their own literature and their own vocational context in trying to give meaning to their academic work. The purpose of this keynote presentation is to explore the context of academic work generally and the connections between education, research and practice in the built environment, specifically. By drawing on ideas from the sociology of the professions, the role of universities, and the fundamentals of social science research, a case is made that helps to explain the kind of problems that routinely obstruct academic progress in our field. This discussion reveals that while there are likely to be great weaknesses in much of what is published and taught in the built environment, it is not too great a stretch to provide a more robust understanding and a good basis for developing our field in a way that would enable us collectively to make a major contribution to theory-building, theory-testing and to make a good stab at tackling some of the problems facing society at large. There is no reason to disregard the fundamental academic disciplines that underpin our knowledge of the built environment. If we contextualise our work in these more fundamental disciplines, there is every reason to think that we can have a much greater impact that we have experienced to date.

Mechatronic design of a high frequency probe for haptic interaction

Current force feedback, haptic interface devices are generally limited to the display of low frequency, high amplitude spatial data. A typical device consists of a low impedance framework of one or more degrees-of-freedom (dof), allowing a user to explore a pre-defined workspace via an end effector such as a handle, thimble, probe or stylus. The movement of the device is then constrained using high gain positional feedback, thus reducing the apparent dof of the device and conveying the illusion of hard contact to the user. Such devices are, however, limited to a narrow bandwidth of frequencies, typically below 30Hz, and are not well suited to the display of surface properties, such as object texture. This paper details a device to augment an existing force feedback haptic display with a vibrotactile display, thus providing a means of conveying low amplitude, high frequency spatial information of object surface properties. 1. Haptics and Haptic Interfaces Haptics is the study of human touch and interaction with the external environment via touch. Information from the human sense of touch can be classified in to two categories, cutaneous and kinesthetic. Cutaneous information is provided via the mechanoreceptive nerve endings in the glabrous skin of the human hand. It is primarily a means of relaying information regarding small-scale details in the form of skin stretch, compression and vibration.

Correlations of control variables in variational data assimilation

Variational data assimilation systems for numerical weather prediction rely on a transformation of model variables to a set of control variables that are assumed to be uncorrelated. Most implementations of this transformation are based on the assumption that the balanced part of the flow can be represented by the vorticity. However, this assumption is likely to break down in dynamical regimes characterized by low Burger number. It has recently been proposed that a variable transformation based on potential vorticity should lead to control variables that are uncorrelated over a wider range of regimes. In this paper we test the assumption that a transform based on vorticity and one based on potential vorticity produce an uncorrelated set of control variables. Using a shallow-water model we calculate the correlations between the transformed variables in the different methods. We show that the control variables resulting from a vorticity-based transformation may retain large correlations in some dynamical regimes, whereas a potential vorticity based transformation successfully produces a set of uncorrelated control variables. Calculations of spatial correlations show that the benefit of the potential vorticity transformation is linked to its ability to capture more accurately the balanced component of the flow.

Photochemical cross-linking of plastically compressed collagen gel produces an optimal scaffold for corneal tissue engineering

The experiments were designed to use photochemically cross-linked plastically compressed collagen (PCPCC) gel to support corneal epithelial cells. A plastically compressed collagen (PCC) scaffold was photo cross-linked by UVA in the presence of riboflavin to form a biomaterial with optimal mechanical properties. The breaking force, rheology, surgical suture strength, transparency, ultrastructure, and cell-based biocompatibility were compared between PCPCC and PCC gels. The breaking force increased proportionally with an increased concentration of riboflavin. The stress required to reach breaking point of the PCPCC scaffolds was over two times higher compared to the stress necessary to break PCC scaffolds in the presence of 0.1% riboflavin. Rheology results indicated that the structural properties of PCC remain unaltered after UVA cross-linking. The PCC gels were more easily broken than PCPCC gels when sutured on to bovine corneas. The optical density values of PCPCC and PCC showed no significant differences (p > 0.05). SEM analyses showed that the collagen fibres within the PCPCC gels were similar in morphology to PCC gels. No difference in cell-based biocompatibility was seen between the PCPCC and PCC scaffolds in terms of their ability to support the ex vivo expansion of corneal epithelial cells or their subsequent differentiation evidenced by similar levels of cytokeratin 14. In conclusion, PCPCC scaffold is an optimal biomaterial for use in therapeutic tissue engineering of the cornea.

Exit strategies for business tenants

Many businesses in the UK occupy premises on fixed term leases, which usually run for several years. During this time property requirements can change. This research critically examines the three main mechanisms by which tenants can bring their leases to an end; breaks, assignment and subletting. We examine the legal rules governing these devices and undertake an analysis of lease data and surveys. Break clauses are providing a useful exit mechanism for many tenants, but they cannot give the more general flexibility of assignment and subletting. However, change is necessary to ensure that these latter provisions provide real flexibility for tenants.

When does direct real estate improve portfolio performance?

For over twenty years researchers have been recommending that investors diversify their portfolios by adding direct real estate. Based on the tenets of modern portfolio theory (MPT) investors are told that the primary reason they should include direct real estate is that they will enjoy decreased volatility (risk) through increased diversification. However, the MPT methodology hides where this reduction in risk originates. To over come this deficiency we use a four-quadrant approach to break down the co-movement between direct real estate and equities and bonds into negative and positive periods. Then using data for the last 25-years we show that for about 70% of the time a holding in direct real estate would have hurt portfolio returns, i.e. when the other assets showed positive performance. In other words, for only about 30% of the time would a holding in direct real estate lead to improvements in portfolio returns. However, this increase in performance occurs when the alternative asset showed negative returns. In addition, adding direct real estate always leads to reductions in portfolio risk, especially on the downside. In other words, although adding direct real estate helps the investor to avoid large losses it also reduces the potential for large gains. Thus, if the goal of the investor is offsetting losses, then the results show that direct real estate would have been of some benefit. So in answer to the question when does direct real estate improve portfolio performance the answer is on the downside, i.e. when it is most needed.