War Signals: A Theory of Trade, Trust and Conflict

We construct a dynamic theory of civil conflict hinging on inter-ethnic trust and trade. The model economy is inhabitated by two ethnic groups. Inter-ethnic trade requires imperfectly observed bilateral investments and one group has to form beliefs on the average propensity to trade of the other group. Since conflict disrupts trade, the onset of a conflict signals that the aggressor has a low propensity to trade. Agents observe the history of conflicts and update their beliefs over time, transmitting them to the next generation. The theory bears a set of testable predictions. First, war is a stochastic process whose frequency depends on the state of endogenous beliefs. Second, the probability of future conflicts increases after each conflict episode. Third, "accidental" conflicts that do not reflect economic fundamentals can lead to a permanent breakdown of trust, plunging a society into a vicious cycle of recurrent conflicts (a war trap). The incidence of conflict can be reduced by policies abating cultural barriers, fostering inter-ethnic trade and human capital, and shifting beliefs. Coercive peace policies such as peacekeeping forces or externally imposed regime changes have instead no persistent effects.

Technological convergence: a strategic perspective

The information and communication technologies (ICT) sectors are in a process of technological convergence. Determinant factors in this process are the liberalisation of the telecommunications markets and technological change. Many firms are engaged in a process of mergers and alliances to position themselves in this new framework. Technological and demand uncertainties are very important. Our objective in this paper is to study the economic determinants of the strategies of the firms. With this aim, we review some key technological and demand aspects. We shed some light on the strategic motivations of the firms by establishing a parallel with the evolution of the retailing sector

Mutation analysis of the ATP7B gene in a new group of Wilson's disease patients: contribution to diagnosis.

Wilson's disease (WD), an autosomal recessive disorder of copper transport with a broad range of genotypic and phenotypic characteristics, results from mutations in the ATP7B gene. Herein we report the results of mutation analysis of the ATP7B gene in a group of 118 Wilson disease families (236 chromosomes) prevalently of Italian origin. Using DNA sequencing we identified 83 disease-causing mutations. Eleven were novel, while twenty one already described mutations were identified in new populations in this study. In particular, mutation analysis of 13 families of Romanian origin showed a high prevalence of the p.H1069Q mutation (50%). Detection of new mutations in the ATP7B gene in new populations increases our capability of molecular analysis that is essential for early diagnosis and treatment of WD.

Molecular markers allow sibling species identification in red wood ants (Formica rufa group)

Red wood ants (Formica rufa group) constitute a group of species that are considered to be among the most promising bioindicators in forest ecosystems. However, because of their morphological similarity and intraspecific variability, morphological species identification can be difficult. Considerable expertise is necessary to discriminate between the sibling species F. lugubris and F. paralugubris, two species that often live in sympatry in the same Alpine forests. New taxonomic tools providing rapid and reliable species identification are needed. We present a simple and reliable molecular technique based on mtDNA (COI gene) and a restriction enzyme for discriminating between F. lugubris and F. paralugubris. We confirm the validity of this method with a Bayesian analysis based on microsatellites. This new molecular tool represents a clear breakthrough for discriminating between F. lugubris and F. paralugubris and is likely to be helpful in large-scale biomonitoring.

Iowa Department of Corrections Strategic Plan and Plan, Performance 2003

Annual Report, Strategic Plan and Performance Plan

Epithelioid sarcoma: a clinicopathologic and immunohistochemical analysis of 106 cases from the French sarcoma group.

Epithelioid sarcoma (ES) is rare with a poor prognosis and for which a loss of INI1 expression has been recently reported. We report a study of 106 cases with clinical, histologic, and immunohistochemical data, including INI1 expression, and follow-up data. Of the 106 cases, 70 were the conventional subtype and 36 the large cell subtype. INI1 was negative in 86 cases (81.1%): 57 (81%) of 70 conventional and 29 (81%) of 36 large cell subtypes. Treatment modalities were available for 76 and follow-up for 80 patients. Of the 80 patients, 43 (54%) experienced metastasis and 25 (31%) died of the disease. Univariate analysis indicated that tumor size and mitotic index were significant for metastasis-free survival, whereas proximal location, tumor size, tumor multifocality, and mitotic index were significant for overall survival. Loss of expression of INI1 is frequent in the conventional and large cell subtypes of ES and can be used as a diagnostic marker, but it has no prognostic impact.

Distribution des durées de séjour par Diagnosis Related Group

Ce cahier fournit les principales informations concernant les durées de séjour et le nombre de sorties observées dans 33 hôpitaux suisses pour l'années 1984. La description des clientèles hospitalières est fondée sur les "Diagnosis Related Groups" (DRG), qui forment une classification de 472 groupes de patients hospitalisés. [Auteurs, p. 1]

Sistema de votació electrònica sobre corbes el·líptques amb mescla de vots mitjançant Random Group Full Checking

L'objectiu del treball és dissenyar i implementar un sistema de simulació de votació electrònica, emprant una adaptació sobre corbes el·líptiques del criptosistema ElGamal, per tal d'estudiar-ne la viabilitat, centrant l'atenció en temes de seguretat, especialment en el procés de mescla de vots per tal de desvincular un vot de la persona que l'ha emès.

Economics of public governance with strategic production of information: four essays

SUMMARY This paper analyses the outcomes of the EEA and bilateral agreements vote at the level of the 3025 communities of the Swiss Confederation by simultaneously modelling the vote and the participation decisions. Regressions include economic and political factors. The economic variables are the aggregated shares of people employed in the losing, Winning and neutral sectors, according to BRUNETTI, JAGGI and WEDER (1998) classification, Which follows a Ricardo-Viner logic, and the average education levels, which follows a Heckscher-Ohlin approach. The political factors are those used in the recent literature. The results are extremely precise and consistent. Most of the variables have the predicted sign and are significant at the l % level. More than 80 % of the communities' vote variance is explained by the model, substantially reducing the residuals when compared to former studies. The political variables do have the expected signs and are significant as Well. Our results underline the importance of the interaction between electoral choice and participation decisions as well as the importance of simultaneously dealing with those issues. Eventually they reveal the electorate's high level of information and rationality. ZUSAMMENFASSUNG Unser Beitrag analysiert in einem Model, welches gleichzeitig die Stimm- ("ja" oder "nein") und Partizipationsentscheidung einbezieht, den Ausgang der Abstimmungen über den Beitritt zum EWR und über die bilateralen Verträge für die 3025 Gemeinden der Schweiz. Die Regressionsgleichungen beinhalten ökonomische und politische Variabeln. Die ökonomischen Variabeln beinhalten die Anteile an sektoriellen Arbeitsplatzen, die, wie in BRUNETTI, JAGGIl.1I1d WEDER (1998), in Gewinner, Verlierer und Neutrale aufgeteilt Wurden, gemäß dem Model von Ricardo-Viner, und das durchschnittliche Ausbildungsniveau, gemäß dem Model von Heckscher-Ohlin. Die politischen Variabeln sind die in der gegenwärtigen Literatur üblichen. Unsere Resultate sind bemerkenswert präzise und kohärent. Die meisten Variabeln haben das von der Theorie vorausgesagte Vorzeichen und sind hoch signifikant (l%). Mehr als 80% der Varianz der Stimmabgabe in den Gemeinden wird durch das Modell erklärt, was, im Vergleich mit früheren Arbeiten, die unerklärten Residuen Wesentlich verkleinert. Die politischen Variabeln haben auch die erwarteten Vorzeichen und sind signifikant. Unsere Resultate unterstreichen die Bedeutung der Interaktion zwischen der Stimm- und der Partizipationsentscheidung, und die Bedeutung diese gleichzeitig zu behandeln. Letztendlich, belegen sie den hohen lnformationsgrad und die hohe Rationalität der Stimmbürger. RESUME Le présent article analyse les résultats des votations sur l'EEE et sur les accords bilatéraux au niveau des 3025 communes de la Confédération en modélisant simultanément les décisions de vote ("oui" ou "non") et de participation. Les régressions incluent des déterminants économiques et politiques. Les déterminants économiques sont les parts d'emploi sectoriels agrégées en perdants, gagnants et neutres selon la classification de BRUNETTI, JAGGI ET WEDER (1998), suivant la logique du modèle Ricardo-Viner, et les niveaux de diplômes moyens, suivant celle du modèle Heckscher-Ohlin. Les déterminants politiques suivent de près ceux utilisés dans la littérature récente. Les résultats sont remarquablement précis et cohérents. La plupart des variables ont les signes prédits par les modèles et sont significatives a 1%. Plus de 80% de la variance du vote par commune sont expliqués par le modèle, faisant substantiellement reculer la part résiduelle par rapport aux travaux précédents. Les variables politiques ont aussi les signes attendus et sont aussi significatives. Nos résultats soulignent l'importance de l'interaction entre choix électoraux et décisions de participation et l'importance de les traiter simultanément. Enfin, ils mettent en lumière les niveaux élevés d'information et de rationalité de l'électorat.

Revised definitions of invasive fungal disease from the European Organization for Research and Treatment of Cancer/Invasive Fungal Infections Cooperative Group and the National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Diseases Mycoses Study Group (EORTC/MSG) Consensus Group.

BACKGROUND: Invasive fungal diseases are important causes of morbidity and mortality. Clarity and uniformity in defining these infections are important factors in improving the quality of clinical studies. A standard set of definitions strengthens the consistency and reproducibility of such studies. METHODS: After the introduction of the original European Organization for Research and Treatment of Cancer/Invasive Fungal Infections Cooperative Group and the National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Diseases Mycoses Study Group (EORTC/MSG) Consensus Group definitions, advances in diagnostic technology and the recognition of areas in need of improvement led to a revision of this document. The revision process started with a meeting of participants in 2003, to decide on the process and to draft the proposal. This was followed by several rounds of consultation until a final draft was approved in 2005. This was made available for 6 months to allow public comment, and then the manuscript was prepared and approved. RESULTS: The revised definitions retain the original classifications of "proven," "probable," and "possible" invasive fungal disease, but the definition of "probable" has been expanded, whereas the scope of the category "possible" has been diminished. The category of proven invasive fungal disease can apply to any patient, regardless of whether the patient is immunocompromised, whereas the probable and possible categories are proposed for immunocompromised patients only. CONCLUSIONS: These revised definitions of invasive fungal disease are intended to advance clinical and epidemiological research and may serve as a useful model for defining other infections in high-risk patients.