NEW FOSSIL RECORDS OF PLEISTOCENE MARINE MOLLUSKS IN SOUTHERN BRAZIL

Fossils of the gastropods Diodora patagonica, Zidona dufresnei, Olivancillaria carcellesi, Lamniconus lemniscatus carcellesi and the bivalve Arcinella brasiliana are registered for the first time from the outcrops of Chui Creek, on the coastal plain of Rio Grande do Sul State, southernmost Brazil, together with other taxa previously known elsewhere. The specimens were collected in a shallow Pleistocene marine facies exposed at the base of the banks of the creek, in a fossil concentration possibly formed by storm events. The taxa described here live in shallow environments (with the exception of A. brasiliana and Z. dufresnei) with sandy bottoms (except for D. patagonica, T patagonica, B. odites, C. rhizophorae and A. brasiliana). The presence of L. lemniscatus carcellesi, found living today only in Uruguay and Argentina, indicates a wider distribution for this taxon during the late Pleistocene.

RegCM3 nested in HadAM3 scenarios A2 and B2: projected changes in extratropical cyclogenesis, temperature and precipitation over the South Atlantic Ocean

The RegCM3 (Regional Climate Model-version 3) was nested in HadAM3 model to simulate present (1975-1989, referred hereafter as RegHad) and two future climate scenarios (A2 and B2 from 2071 to 2085, referred as RegA2 and RegB2) over the South America (SA) and South Atlantic Ocean (SAO). Projected changes in the air temperature, precipitation, low level circulation and cyclogenesis climatology were investigated. The cyclogenesis were identified using an automatic scheme for tracking based on the minimum of relative vorticity (zeta) from 10-m height wind. During summer, a general decrease (increase) in the precipitation is projected by RegA2 and RegB2 over the northeastern SA (center-west and south Brazil, north Argentina and Uruguay). For winter, an anomalous low level anticyclonic circulation is associated with the reduction in the rainfall over the central part of southern Brazil in RegA2 and RegB2 scenarios. Similar to HadAM3, RegCM3 projects larger warming in A2 scenario. For the present climate, when compared to HadAM3, RegHad defines better both the location of the main cyclogenetic areas and its annual cycle near southwestern SAO. The projections indicate a reduction in the total number of cyclones of -7.2% and -4.7% for RegA2 and RegB2, respectively, while HadAM3 reduction is -4.5% for both scenarios. The decrease is larger for initially intense cyclones (zeta <=-<= 2.5 x 10(-5) s-(1)): -20.9% (RegA2) and -11.3% (RegB2). For the lifetime, distance traveled and mean velocity of the cyclones, the A2 and B2 scenarios present mean values close to the present climate ( 3 days, 1900 km, and 9 m s(-1), respectively). Regarding the initial mean vorticity of the systems, RegB2 simulates values similar to the present climate, but they are initially weaker in RegA2. In general, RegA2 and RegB2 show a large decrease in the number of cyclones over the southern SAO due to an anticyclonic anomaly covering SAO between 30-55A degrees S. The reduction is larger in the scenario with higher concentrations of greenhouse gases (RegA2).

Sedimentary processes on the NW Iberian Continental Shelf since the Little Ice Age

The OMEX core CD110 W90, retrieved from the Douro Mud Patch (DMP) off the River Douro in the north of Portugal, records the period since the beginning of Little Ice Age (LIA). The core chronology is based upon the data attributes for Pb-210, Cs-137 and a C-14 dating from a level near the core base. Geochemical, granulometric, microfaunal (benthic foraminifera) and compositional data suggest the occurrence of precipitation changes which may have been, at least partially, influenced by the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO), that contributes to the regulation of the ocean-atmosphere dynamics in the North Atlantic. Southwesterly Atlantic storm track is associated with the negative phases of the NAO, when the Azores High is anomalously weak, higher oceanographic hydrodynamism, downwelling events and increased rainfall generally occurs. Prevalence of these characteristics during the LIA left a record that corresponds to phases of major floods. During these phases the DMP received a higher contribution of relatively coarse-grained terrigenous sediments, enriched in quartz particles, which diluted the contribution of other minerals, as indicated by reduced concentrations of several lithogenic chemical elements such as: Al, As, Ba, Ce, Co, Cu, Fe, K, La, Li, Mg, Mn, Mo, Na, Ni, P, Rb, Sc, Sn, Th, V and Y. The presence of biogenic carbonate particles also underwent dilution, as revealed by the smaller abundance of foraminifera and correlative lower concentrations of Ca and Sr. During this period, the DMP also received an increased contribution of organic matter, indicated by higher values of lignin remains and a benthic foraminifera high productivity index, or BFHP, which gave rise to early diagenetic changes with pyrite formation. Since the beginning of the 20th century this contribution diminished, probably due to several drier periods and the impact of human activities in the river basins, e.g. construction of dams, or, on the littoral areas, construction of hard-engineering structures and sand extraction activities. During the first half of the 20th century mainly positive phases of the NAO prevailed, caused by the above normal strengthening of the subtropical high pressure centre of the Azores and the deepening of the low pressure centre in Iceland. These phases may have contributed to the reduction in the supply of both terrigenous sediments and organic matter from shallow water to the DMP. During the positive phases of the NAO, sedimentation became finer. The development of mining and industrial activities during the 20th century is marked, in this core, by higher concentrations of Pb. Furthermore, the erosion of heaps resulting from wolfram exploitation leaves its signature as a peak of W concentrations recorded in the sediments of the DMP deposited between the 1960s and the 1990s. Wolfram exploitation was an important activity in the middle part of the 20th century, particularly during the period of the Second World War. (C) 2012 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Análise de desempenho de índices de instabilidade atmosférica na previsão de fenômenos convectivos de mesoescala na região metropolitana de São Paulo entre 28 de janeiro e 04 de fevereiro de 2004

Discute-se o potencial prognóstico de índices de instabilidade para eventos convectivos de verão na Região Metropolitana de São Paulo. Cinco dos oito dias do período analisado foram considerados chuvosos, com observação de tempestades a partir do meio da tarde. O Índice K (IK) obteve valores abaixo de 31 nos 5 eventos, afetado pela presença de uma camada fria e seca em níveis médios da atmosfera em relação aos baixos níveis. O Índice Total Totals (ITT) falhou na detecção de severidade em 3 dos 5 eventos, apresentando valores inferiores ao mínimo limiar tabelado para fenômenos convectivos (ITT < 44) nesses dias. O Índice Levantado (IL) variou entre -4.9 e -4.3 em todos os 5 casos, valores associados a instabilidade moderada. O Índice de Showalter (IS) indicou possibilidade de tempestades severas em 4 dos 5 casos. Tanto o IS como o CAPE Tv tiveram seus valores fortemente reduzidos em uma sondagem com camada isotérmica entre 910 e 840 hPa. As séries temporais de CAPE Tv e IL mostraram significativa concordância de fase, com alta correlação linear entre ambas. CINE Tv ≈ 0 J kg-1 em associação com baixo cisalhamento vertical e com IS, IL e CAPE Tv, pelo menos moderados, parecem ser fatores comuns em dias de verão com chuvas abundantes e pequena influência da dinâmica de grande escala na área de estudo.

Microbial Translocation Is Associated with Extensive Immune Activation in Dengue Virus Infected Patients with Severe Disease

Background: Severe dengue virus (DENV) disease is associated with extensive immune activation, characterized by a cytokine storm. Previously, elevated lipopolysaccharide (LPS) levels in dengue were found to correlate with clinical disease severity. In the present cross-sectional study we identified markers of microbial translocation and immune activation, which are associated with severe manifestations of DENV infection. Methods: Serum samples from DENV-infected patients were collected during the outbreak in 2010 in the State of Sa˜o Paulo, Brazil. Levels of LPS, lipopolysaccharide binding protein (LBP), soluble CD14 (sCD14) and IgM and IgG endotoxin core antibodies were determined by ELISA. Thirty cytokines were quantified using a multiplex luminex system. Patients were classified according to the 2009 WHO classification and the occurrence of plasma leakage/shock and hemorrhage. Moreover, a (non-supervised) cluster analysis based on the expression of the quantified cytokines was applied to identify groups of patients with similar cytokine profiles. Markers of microbial translocation were linked to groups with similar clinical disease severity and clusters with similar cytokine profiles. Results: Cluster analysis indicated that LPS levels were significantly increased in patients with a profound pro-inflammatory cytokine profile. LBP and sCD14 showed significantly increased levels in patients with severe disease in the clinical classification and in patients with severe inflammation in the cluster analysis. With both the clinical classification and the cluster analysis, levels of IL-6, IL-8, sIL-2R, MCP-1, RANTES, HGF, G-CSF and EGF were associated with severe disease. Conclusions: The present study provides evidence that both microbial translocation and extensive immune activation occur during severe DENV infection and may play an important role in the pathogenesis.

Decadal changes in the structure of Cymodocea nodosa seagrass meadows: natural vs. human influences

[EN] Seagrass meadows are deteriorating worldwide. However, numerous declines are still unreported, which avoid accurate evaluations of seagrass global trends. This is particularly relevant for the western African coast and nearby oceanic archipelagos in the eastern Atlantic. The seagrass Cymodocea nodosa is an ecological engineer on shallow soft bottoms of the Canary Islands. A comparative decadal study was conducted in 21 C. nodosa seagrass meadows at Gran Canaria Island to compare the structure (shoot density, leaf length and cover) between 2003 and 2012. Overall, 11 meadows exhibited a severe regression, while 10 remained relatively stable. During this period, natural influences (sea surface temperature, Chlorophyll-a concentration and PAR light, as well as the number of storm episodes detaching seagrasses) had a low predictive power on temporal patterns in seagrass structure. In contrast, proximity from a range of human-mediated influences (e.g. the number of outfalls and ports) seem to be related to the loss of seagrass; the rate of seagrass erosion between 2003 and 2012 was significantly predicted by the number of human-mediated impacts around each meadow. This result highlights promoting management actions to conserve meadows of C. nodosa at the study region through efficient management of local impacts

Statistical assessment of annual patterns in coastal extreme wave conditions

[EN]The annual cycle in extreme values of significant wave height is examined by transforming the timing ofthe storm peaks in a circular variable, with the aim of taking advantage of the many tests devised to explore uniformity on the circle. The use of four different but complementary uniformity tests makes possible a robust assessment of the annual cycle statistical significance. Seasonality of storms in a long time series of significant wave heights, measured in a coastal zone, is examined. The presence of a seasonal pattem is statistically beyond doubt.

Probabilistic Envelope Curves for Extreme Rainfall Events - Curve Inviluppo Probabilistiche per Precipitazioni Estreme

A regional envelope curve (REC) of flood flows summarises the current bound on our experience of extreme floods in a region. RECs are available for most regions of the world. Recent scientific papers introduced a probabilistic interpretation of these curves and formulated an empirical estimator of the recurrence interval T associated with a REC, which, in principle, enables us to use RECs for design purposes in ungauged basins. The main aim of this work is twofold. First, it extends the REC concept to extreme rainstorm events by introducing the Depth-Duration Envelope Curves (DDEC), which are defined as the regional upper bound on all the record rainfall depths at present for various rainfall duration. Second, it adapts the probabilistic interpretation proposed for RECs to DDECs and it assesses the suitability of these curves for estimating the T-year rainfall event associated with a given duration and large T values. Probabilistic DDECs are complementary to regional frequency analysis of rainstorms and their utilization in combination with a suitable rainfall-runoff model can provide useful indications on the magnitude of extreme floods for gauged and ungauged basins. The study focuses on two different national datasets, the peak over threshold (POT) series of rainfall depths with duration 30 min., 1, 3, 9 and 24 hrs. obtained for 700 Austrian raingauges and the Annual Maximum Series (AMS) of rainfall depths with duration spanning from 5 min. to 24 hrs. collected at 220 raingauges located in northern-central Italy. The estimation of the recurrence interval of DDEC requires the quantification of the equivalent number of independent data which, in turn, is a function of the cross-correlation among sequences. While the quantification and modelling of intersite dependence is a straightforward task for AMS series, it may be cumbersome for POT series. This paper proposes a possible approach to address this problem.

The use of remote sensing imagery for monitoring recovery in the aftermath of a natural disaster: the Hurricane Katrina Case

Although Recovery is often defined as the less studied and documented phase of the Emergency Management Cycle, a wide literature is available for describing characteristics and sub-phases of this process. Previous works do not allow to gain an overall perspective because of a lack of systematic consistent monitoring of recovery utilizing advanced technologies such as remote sensing and GIS technologies. Taking into consideration the key role of Remote Sensing in Response and Damage Assessment, this thesis is aimed to verify the appropriateness of such advanced monitoring techniques to detect recovery advancements over time, with close attention to the main characteristics of the study event: Hurricane Katrina storm surge. Based on multi-source, multi-sensor and multi-temporal data, the post-Katrina recovery was analysed using both a qualitative and a quantitative approach. The first phase was dedicated to the investigation of the relation between urban types, damage and recovery state, referring to geographical and technological parameters. Damage and recovery scales were proposed to review critical observations on remarkable surge- induced effects on various typologies of structures, analyzed at a per-building level. This wide-ranging investigation allowed a new understanding of the distinctive features of the recovery process. A quantitative analysis was employed to develop methodological procedures suited to recognize and monitor distribution, timing and characteristics of recovery activities in the study area. Promising results, gained by applying supervised classification algorithms to detect localization and distribution of blue tarp, have proved that this methodology may help the analyst in the detection and monitoring of recovery activities in areas that have been affected by medium damage. The study found that Mahalanobis Distance was the classifier which provided the most accurate results, in localising blue roofs with 93.7% of blue roof classified correctly and a producer accuracy of 70%. It was seen to be the classifier least sensitive to spectral signature alteration. The application of the dissimilarity textural classification to satellite imagery has demonstrated the suitability of this technique for the detection of debris distribution and for the monitoring of demolition and reconstruction activities in the study area. Linking these geographically extensive techniques with expert per-building interpretation of advanced-technology ground surveys provides a multi-faceted view of the physical recovery process. Remote sensing and GIS technologies combined to advanced ground survey approach provides extremely valuable capability in Recovery activities monitoring and may constitute a technical basis to lead aid organization and local government in the Recovery management.

Modellazione bidimensionale della propagazione nell'entroterra della inondazione da mare negli scenari dei previsti cambiamenti climatici

Le ricerche di carattere eustatico, mareografico, climatico, archeologico e geocronologico, sviluppatesi soprattutto nell’ultimo ventennio, hanno messo in evidenza che gran parte delle piane costiere italiane risulta soggetta al rischio di allagamento per ingressione marina dovuta alla risalita relativa del livello medio del mare. Tale rischio è la conseguenza dell’interazione tra la presenza di elementi antropici e fenomeni di diversa natura, spesso difficilmente discriminabili e quantificabili, caratterizzati da magnitudo e velocità molto diverse tra loro. Tra le cause preponderanti che determinano l’ingressione marina possono essere individuati alcuni fenomeni naturali, climatici e geologici, i quali risultano fortemente influenzati dalle attività umane soprattutto a partire dal XX secolo. Tra questi si individuano: - la risalita del livello del mare, principalmente come conseguenza del superamento dell’ultimo acme glaciale e dello scioglimento delle grandi calotte continentali; - la subsidenza. Vaste porzioni delle piane costiere italiane risultano soggette a fenomeni di subsidenza. In certe zone questa assume proporzioni notevoli: per la fascia costiera emiliano-romagnola si registrano ratei compresi tra 1 e 3 cm/anno. Tale subsidenza è spesso il risultato della sovrapposizione tra fenomeni naturali (neotettonica, costipamento di sedimenti, ecc.) e fenomeni indotti dall’uomo (emungimenti delle falde idriche, sfruttamento di giacimenti metaniferi, escavazione di materiali per l’edilizia, ecc.); - terreni ad elevato contenuto organico: la presenza di depositi fortemente costipabili può causare la depressione del piano di campagna come conseguenza di abbassamenti del livello della falda superficiale (per drenaggi, opere di bonifica, emungimenti), dello sviluppo dei processi di ossidazione e decomposizione nei terreni stessi, del costipamento di questi sotto il proprio peso, della carenza di nuovi apporti solidi conseguente alla diminuita frequenza delle esondazioni dei corsi d’acqua; - morfologia: tra i fattori di rischio rientra l’assetto morfologico della piana e, in particolare il tipo di costa (lidi, spiagge, cordoni dunari in smantellamento, ecc. ), la presenza di aree depresse o comunque vicine al livello del mare (fino a 1-2 m s.l.m.), le caratteristiche dei fondali antistanti (batimetria, profilo trasversale, granulometria dei sedimenti, barre sommerse, assenza di barriere biologiche, ecc.); - stato della linea di costa in termini di processi erosivi dovuti ad attività umane (urbanizzazione del litorale, prelievo inerti, costruzione di barriere, ecc.) o alle dinamiche idro-sedimentarie naturali cui risulta soggetta (correnti litoranee, apporti di materiale, ecc. ). Scopo del presente studio è quello di valutare la probabilità di ingressione del mare nel tratto costiero emiliano-romagnolo del Lido delle Nazioni, la velocità di propagazione del fronte d’onda, facendo riferimento allo schema idraulico del crollo di una diga su letto asciutto (problema di Riemann) basato sul metodo delle caratteristiche, e di modellare la propagazione dell’inondazione nell’entroterra, conseguente all’innalzamento del medio mare . Per simulare tale processo è stato utilizzato il complesso codice di calcolo bidimensionale Mike 21. La fase iniziale di tale lavoro ha comportato la raccolta ed elaborazione mediante sistema Arcgis dei dati LIDAR ed idrografici multibeam , grazie ai quali si è provveduto a ricostruire la topo-batimetria di dettaglio della zona esaminata. Nel primo capitolo è stato sviluppato il problema del cambiamento climatico globale in atto e della conseguente variazione del livello marino che, secondo quanto riportato dall’IPCC nel rapporto del 2007, dovrebbe aumentare al 2100 mediamente tra i 28 ed i 43 cm. Nel secondo e terzo capitolo è stata effettuata un’analisi bibliografica delle metodologie per la modellazione della propagazione delle onde a fronte ripido con particolare attenzione ai fenomeni di breaching delle difese rigide ed ambientali. Sono state studiate le fenomenologie che possono inficiare la stabilità dei rilevati arginali, realizzati sia in corrispondenza dei corsi d’acqua, sia in corrispondenza del mare, a discapito della protezione idraulica del territorio ovvero dell’incolumità fisica dell’uomo e dei territori in cui esso vive e produce. In un rilevato arginale, quale che sia la causa innescante la formazione di breccia, la generazione di un’onda di piena conseguente la rottura è sempre determinata da un’azione erosiva (seepage o overtopping) esercitata dall’acqua sui materiali sciolti costituenti il corpo del rilevato. Perciò gran parte dello studio in materia di brecce arginali è incentrato sulla ricostruzione di siffatti eventi di rottura. Nel quarto capitolo è stata calcolata la probabilità, in 5 anni, di avere un allagamento nella zona di interesse e la velocità di propagazione del fronte d’onda. Inoltre è stata effettuata un’analisi delle condizioni meteo marine attuali (clima ondoso, livelli del mare e correnti) al largo della costa emiliano-romagnola, le cui problematiche e linee di intervento per la difesa sono descritte nel quinto capitolo, con particolare riferimento alla costa ferrarese, oggetto negli ultimi anni di continui interventi antropici. Introdotto il sistema Gis e le sue caratteristiche, si è passati a descrivere le varie fasi che hanno permesso di avere in output il file delle coordinate x, y, z dei punti significativi della costa, indispensabili al fine della simulazione Mike 21, le cui proprietà sono sviluppate nel sesto capitolo.

Analisi degli aspetti di qualità nella gestione dei sistemi di drenaggio urbano attraverso modellazione numerica e indagini di campo

In order to protect river water quality, highly affected in urban areas by continuos as intermittent immissions, it is necessary to adopt measures to intercept and treat these polluted flows. In particular during rain events, river water quality is affected by CSOs activation. Built in order to protect the sewer system and the WWTP by increased flows due to heavy rains, CSOs divert excess flows to the receiving water body. On the basis of several scientific papers, and of direct evidences as well, that demonstrate the detrimental effect of CSOs discharges, also the legislative framework moved towards a stream standard point of view. The WFD (EU/69/2000) sets new goals for receiving water quality, and groundwater as well, through an integrated immission/emissions phylosophy, in which emission limits are associated with effluent standards, based on the receiving water characteristics and their specific use. For surface waters the objective is that of a “good” ecological and chemical quality status. A surface water is defined as of good ecological quality if there is only slight departure from the biological community that would be expected in conditions of minimal anthropogenic impact. Each Member State authority is responsible for preparing and implementing a River Basin Management Plan to achieve the good ecological quality, and comply with WFD requirements. In order to cope with WFD targets, and thus to improve urban receiving water quality, a CSOs control strategy need to be implemented. Temporarily storing the overflow (or at least part of it) into tanks and treating it in the WWTP, after the end of the storm, showed good results in reducing total pollutant mass spilled into the receiving river. Italian State Authority, in order to comply with WFD statements, sets general framework, and each Region has to adopt a Water Remediation Plan (PTA, Piano Tutela Acque), setting goals, methods, and terms, to improve river water quality. Emilia Romagna PTA sets 25% reduction up to 2008, and 50% reduction up to 2015 fo total pollutants masses delivered by CSOs spills. In order to plan remediation actions, a deep insight into spills dynamics is thus of great importance. The present thesis tries to understand spills dynamics through a numerical and an experimental approach. A four months monitoring and sampling campaign was set on the Bologna sewer network, and on the Navile Channel, that is the WWTP receiving water , and that receives flows from up to 28 CSOs during rain events. On the other hand, the full model of the sewer network, was build with the commercial software InfoWorks CS. The model was either calibrated with the data from the monitoring and sampling campaign. Through further model simulations interdependencies among masses spilled, rain characteristics and basin characteristics are looked for. The thesis can be seen as a basis for further insighs and for planning remediation actions.

Dimensionamento di invasi per il controllo dei deflussi nei bacini urbanizzati

Urbanization is a continuing phenomenon in all the world. Grasslands, forests, etc. are being continually changed to residential, commercial and industrial complexes, roads and streets, and so on. One of the side effects of urbanization with which engineers and planners must deal with, is the increase of peak flows and volumes of runoff from rainfall events. As a result, the urban drainage and flood control systems must be designed to accommodate the peak flows from a variety of storms that may occur. Usually the peak flow, after development, is required not to exceed what would have occurred from the same storm under conditions existing prior to development. In order to do this it is necessary to design detention storage to hold back runoff and to release it downstream at controlled rates. In the first part of the work have been developed various simplified formulations that can be adopted for the design of stormwater detention facilities. In order to obtain a simplified hydrograph were adopted two approaches: the kinematic routing technique and the linear reservoir schematization. For the two approaches have been also obtained other two formulations depending if the IDF (intensity-duration-frequency) curve is described with two or three parameters. Other formulations have been developed taking into account if the outlet have a constant discharge or it depends on the water level in the pond. All these formulations can be easily applied when are known the characteristics of the drainage system and maximum discharge that these is in the outlet and has been defined a Return Period which characterize the IDF curve. In this way the volume of the detention pond can be calculated. In the second part of the work have been analyzed the design of detention ponds adopting continuous simulation models. The drainage systems adopted for the simulations, performed with SWMM5, are fictitious systems characterized by different sizes, and different shapes of the catchments and with a rainfall historical time series of 16 years recorded in Bologna. This approach suffers from the fact that continuous record of rainfall is often not available and when it is, the cost of such modelling can be very expensive, and that the majority of design practitioners are not prepared to use continuous long term modelling in the design of stormwater detention facilities. In the third part of the work have been analyzed statistical and stochastic methodologies in order to define the volume of the detention pond. In particular have been adopted the results of the long term simulation, performed with SWMM, to obtain the data to apply statistic and stochastic formulation. All these methodologies have been compared and correction coefficient have been proposed on the basis of the statistic and stochastic form. In this way engineers which have to design a detention pond can apply a simplified procedure appropriately corrected with the proposed coefficient.

Gewitter und Gewitterschäden im südlichen hessischen Berg- und Beckenland und im Rhein-Main-Tiefland 1881 bis 1980

Basierend auf schriftlichen Quellen, hauptsächlich von 1881-1980 (ohne 1941-50), werden die raum-zeitlichen Eigenschaften von Gewittern mit Schäden im südlichen hessischen Berg- und Beckenland und im Rhein-Main-Tiefland (= UG) herausgestellt. Nach Auswertung des Materials in einer Datenbank erfolgt die Intensitätskategorisierung der Schadensvorgänge für gewitterbedingte Starkregen erstmals anhand der Ähnlichkeitsmerkmale von Folgeerscheinungen, für Blitzschlag erstmals nach Schadensaspekten sowie für Hagelschlag und Sturm mittels existierender und modifizierter Klassifizierungen. Diese Kategorisierungen können für alle Beschreibungen von Gewitterschadensereignissen in schriftlichen Quellen angewandt werden. Die einzelnen Phänomene zeigen deutlich voneinander abweichende Eigenschaften. So treten z.B. Starkregenschäden verstärkt im Frühsommer auf, Sturmschäden überwiegend erst im Hoch- und Spätsommer. Generell lassen sich zwei Jahresmaxima in der Gewitterschadenstätigkeit nachweisen (erste Junidekade, zweite Julihälfte). Schwergewitter mit Sturm (auch Hagel) aus SW-W verursachen überwiegend Schäden im südlichen und westlichen UG, aus W-N meist im nördlichen und östlichen UG. Gewitter mit Starkregenschäden dominieren im östlichen UG. Nach der hier vorgestellten Methode der Schadensschwerpunkte können für Schwergewitter aus dem westlichen Sektor (SW-W, W-N) Schwerpunktzugbahnen im UG gedeutet werden. Es wird die Möglichkeit aufgezeigt, die Schadensdatenauswertung auf historische Szenarien zu übertragen. Für Interpretation und Rekonstruktion dieser für die Belange der Historischen Klimatologie wichtigen Vorgänge wird Datenmaterial aus dem zurückreichenden Zeitraum bis 1700 verwendet.

Dynamik und Klimatologie von diabatischen Rossby-Wellen

Der Wintersturm Lothar zog am 26. Dezember 1999 über Europa und richtete in Frankreich, in Deutschland, in der Schweiz und in Österreich ungewöhnlich hohe Schäden an. Lothar entstand aus einer diabatischen Rossby Welle (DRW) und erreichte erst wenige Stunden vor dem europäischen Kontinent Orkanstärke. DRWs weisen ein interessantes atmosphärisches Strömungsmuster auf. Sie bestehen aus einer positiven PV-Anomalie in der unteren Troposphäre, die sich in einer Region mit starkem meridionalen Temperaturgradient befindet. Die positive PV-Anomalie löst eine zyklonale Strömung aus, dadurch wird östlich der PV-Anomalie warme Luft aus dem Süden herantransportiert. Während des Aufstieg der warmen Luft finden diabatische Prozesse statt, die zur Bildung einer neuen positiven PV-Anomalie in der unteren Troposphäre (PVA) führen. DRWs entstehen unabhängig von PV-Anomalien an der Tropopause. Falls sie jedoch mit ihnen in Wechselwirkung treten, kann - wie im Falle von Lothar - eine explosive Zyklogenese daraus resultieren. Im ersten Teil wird die Dynamik einer DRW am Beispiel des Wintersturms Lothar untersucht. Es wird insbesondere auf das Potential einer DRW zur explosiven Zyklogenese eingegangen. Im zweiten Teil wird das Aufretreten von DRWs in ECMWF-Vorhersagen untersucht. Es werden Unterschiede zwischen DRWs und anderen PV-Anomalien in der unteren Troposphäre hervorgehoben. Die Dynamik von DRWs wird mit Hilfe eines ECMWF-"Ensemble Prediction System" (EPS) des Wintersturms Lothar untersucht. Die 50 Modellläufe des EPS starten am 24. Dezember 1999 um 12 UTC und reichen bis zum 26. Dezember 1999 um 12 UTC. Nur 16 der 50 Modellläufe sagen einen ähnlich starken Sturm wie Lothar vorher. 10 Modellläufen sagen am 26. Dezember keine Zyklone mehr vorher. Die Ausprägung der baroklinen Zone, in der sich die DRW befindet, ist ausschlaggebend für die Intensität der DRW. Weitere wichtige Parameter sind der Feuchtegehalt der unteren Troposphäre und der latente Wärmefluss über dem Ozean. Diejenigen DRWs, die sich zu am 25. Dezember um 12 UTC näher als 400 km am Tropopausenjet befinden, entwickeln sich zu einer starken Zyklone. Alle anderen lösen sich auf oder bleiben schwache Zyklonen. Es ist schwierig, diabatische Prozesse in Wettervorhersagemodellen abzubilden, dementsprechend treten Schwierigkeiten bei der Vorhersage von PVAs auf. In den operationellen ECMWF-Vorhersagen von Juni 2004 bis Mai 2005 werden mit Hilfe eines Tracking- Algorithmus PVAs im Nordpazifik und Nordatlantik bestimmt und in fünf Kategorien eingeteilt. Die fünf Kategorien unterscheiden sich in ihrer Häufigkeit, ihrer Zugbahn und ihrer Gestalt. Im Nordpazifik entstehen doppelt so viele PVAs wie im Nordatlantik. Durchschnittlich werden im Winter weniger PVAs gefunden als im Sommer. Die Baroklinität und die Geschwindigkeit des Tropopausenjets ist in der Nähe von DRWs besonders hoch. Verglichen mit anderen PVAs weisen DRWs eine ähnliche Verteilung des reduzierten Bodendrucks auf. DRWs können in etwa gleich gut vorhergesagt werden wie andere PVAs.

Relazione fra comunità macrobentoniche e morfodinamica nelle zone costiere dell’Alto Adriatico

Numerosi studi hanno messo in evidenza che la struttura delle comunità macrobentoniche delle spiagge sabbiose dipende da una serie di forzanti fisiche; queste ultime interagendo tra loro determinano la morfodinamica della spiagge stesse. Lo scopo di questo lavoro consiste nell’analisi dei popolamenti macrobentonici di due siti presenti lungo la costa emiliano - romagnola, che differiscono per caratteristiche morfodinamiche, grado di antropizzazione e modalità gestionali di difesa dall’erosione costiera. I siti oggetto di studio sono Lido Spina e Bellocchio; il primo è soggetto ad interventi di ripascimento periodici, mentre il secondo rappresenta un’opportunità rara, per lo studio degli effetti del retreat, in quanto è in forte erosione da molti anni ma, essendo inserito all’interno di una riserva naturale, non è sottoposto ad alcuna misura di gestione. Sono state analizzate le comunità macrobentoniche e le variabili abiotiche (mediana e classazione del sedimento, ampiezza della zona intertidale, pendenza della spiaggia, contenuto di sostanza organica totale presente nel sedimento e i principali parametri chimico-fisici). I risultati del presente studio hanno evidenziato un’elevata eterogeneità della struttura di comunità all’interno del sito di Bellocchio rispetto a Spina; inoltre i popolamenti presenti a Bellocchio mostrano una netta differenza tra i due livelli mareali. Per quanto riguarda i descrittori abiotici, i due siti differiscono per ampiezza della zona intertidale e pendenza della spiaggia; in particolare Lido Spina presenta una condizione di minore dissipatività, essendo caratterizzata da un profilo più ripido e una granulometria più grossolana rispetto a Bellocchio. Nel complesso le caratteristiche granulometriche (mediana e classazione) e il contenuto di materia organica rappresentano le variabili ambientali maggiormente responsabili delle differenze osservate tra i popolamenti macrobentonici analizzati. Al fine di valutare la resistenza dell’habitat intertidale agli eventi naturali di disturbo (storm surge e flooding), sono state effettuare delle simulazioni considerando lo scenario attuale (SLR=0), mediante un modello ibrido fuzzy naive Bayes. I risultati indicano una maggiore resistenza delle comunità presenti nel sito di Spina, in quanto non si hanno variazioni significative del numero medio di taxa e di individui; viceversa le simulazioni relative a Bellocchio mostrano una diminuzione del numero medio di taxa e aumento del numero medio di individui, sottolineando una maggiore vulnerabilità delle comunità macrobentoniche presenti in questo sito. L’inasprimento dei fenomeni estremi potrebbe quindi avere un effetto negativo sulla diversità della componente macrobentonica, soprattutto per gli ambienti di transizione già interessati da fenomeni erosivi, come nel caso di Bellocchio. La perdita di specie, che svolgono processi ecosistemici particolarmente importanti, come il riciclo di nutrienti, potrebbe favorire l’aumento di abbondanza di specie opportunistiche, l’insediamento di specie alloctone, con la conseguente alterazione, se non scomparsa delle principali funzioni ecologiche svolte da questi ecosistemi costieri.