Processes influencing ozone levels in Alaskan forest fire plumes during long-range transport over the North Atlantic

A case of long-range transport of a biomass burning plume from Alaska to Europe is analyzed using a Lagrangian approach. This plume was sampled several times in the free troposphere over North America, the North Atlantic and Europe by three different aircraft during the IGAC Lagrangian 2K4 experiment which was part of the ICARTT/ITOP measurement intensive in summer 2004. Measurements in the plume showed enhanced values of CO, VOCs and NOy, mainly in form of PAN. Observed O3 levels increased by 17 ppbv over 5 days. A photochemical trajectory model, CiTTyCAT, was used to examine processes responsible for the chemical evolution of the plume. The model was initialized with upwind data and compared with downwind measurements. The influence of high aerosol loading on photolysis rates in the plume was investigated using in situ aerosol measurements in the plume and lidar retrievals of optical depth as input into a photolysis code (Fast-J), run in the model. Significant impacts on photochemistry are found with a decrease of 18% in O3 production and 24% in O3 destruction over 5 days when including aerosols. The plume is found to be chemically active with large O3 increases attributed primarily to PAN decomposition during descent of the plume toward Europe. The predicted O3 changes are very dependent on temperature changes during transport and also on water vapor levels in the lower troposphere which can lead to O3 destruction. Simulation of mixing/dilution was necessary to reproduce observed pollutant levels in the plume. Mixing was simulated using background concentrations from measurements in air masses in close proximity to the plume, and mixing timescales (averaging 6.25 days) were derived from CO changes. Observed and simulated O3/CO correlations in the plume were also compared in order to evaluate the photochemistry in the model. Observed slopes change from negative to positive over 5 days. This change, which can be attributed largely to photochemistry, is well reproduced by multiple model runs even if slope values are slightly underestimated suggesting a small underestimation in modeled photochemical O3 production. The possible impact of this biomass burning plume on O3 levels in the European boundary layer was also examined by running the model for a further 5 days and comparing with data collected at surface sites, such as Jungfraujoch, which showed small O3 increases and elevated CO levels. The model predicts significant changes in O3 over the entire 10 day period due to photochemistry but the signal is largely lost because of the effects of dilution. However, measurements in several other BB plumes over Europe show that O3 impact of Alaskan fires can be potentially significant over Europe.

The basic ingredients of the North Atlantic storm track. Part I: land-sea contrast and orography

Understanding and predicting changes in storm tracks over longer time scales is a challenging problem, particularly in the North Atlantic. This is due in part to the complex range of forcings (land–sea contrast, orography, sea surface temperatures, etc.) that combine to produce the structure of the storm track. The impact of land–sea contrast and midlatitude orography on the North Atlantic storm track is investigated through a hierarchy of GCM simulations using idealized and “semirealistic” boundary conditions in a high-resolution version of the Hadley Centre atmosphere model (HadAM3). This framework captures the large-scale essence of features such as the North and South American continents, Eurasia, and the Rocky Mountains, enabling the results to be applied more directly to realistic modeling situations than was possible with previous idealized studies. The physical processes by which the forcing mechanisms impact the large-scale flow and the midlatitude storm tracks are discussed. The characteristics of the North American continent are found to be very important in generating the structure of the North Atlantic storm track. In particular, the southwest–northeast tilt in the upper tropospheric jet produced by southward deflection of the westerly flow incident on the Rocky Mountains leads to enhanced storm development along an axis close to that of the continent’s eastern coastline. The approximately triangular shape of North America also enables a cold pool of air to develop in the northeast, intensifying the surface temperature contrast across the eastern coastline, consistent with further enhancements of baroclinicity and storm growth along the same axis.

Characteristics and variability of storm tracks in the north Pacific, Bering Sea, and Alaska

The North Pacific and Bering Sea regions represent loci of cyclogenesis and storm track activity. In this paper climatological properties of extratropical storms in the North Pacific/Bering Sea are presented based upon aggregate statistics of individual storm tracks calculated by means of a feature-tracking algorithm run using NCEP–NCAR reanalysis data from 1948/49 to 2008, provided by the NOAA/Earth System Research Laboratory and the Cooperative Institute for Research in Environmental Sciences, Climate Diagnostics Center. Storm identification is based on the 850-hPa relative vorticity field (ζ) instead of the often-used mean sea level pressure; ζ is a prognostic field, a good indicator of synoptic-scale dynamics, and is directly related to the wind speed. Emphasis extends beyond winter to provide detailed consideration of all seasons. Results show that the interseasonal variability is not as large during the spring and autumn seasons. Most of the storm variables—genesis, intensity, track density—exhibited a maxima pattern that was oriented along a zonal axis. From season to season this axis underwent a north–south shift and, in some cases, a rotation to the northeast. This was determined to be a result of zonal heating variations and midtropospheric moisture patterns. Barotropic processes have an influence in shaping the downstream end of storm tracks and, together with the blocking influence of the coastal orography of northwest North America, result in high lysis concentrations, effectively making the Gulf of Alaska the “graveyard” of Pacific storms. Summer storms tended to be longest in duration. Temporal trends tended to be weak over the study area. SST did not emerge as a major cyclogenesis control in the Gulf of Alaska.

Alternative explanations for rising dissolved organic carbon export from organic soils

Since 1988, there has been, on average, a 91% increase in dissolved organic carbon (DOC) concentrations of UK lakes and streams in the Acid Waters Monitoring Network (AWMN). Similar DOC increases have been observed in surface waters across much of Europe and North America. Much of the debate about the causes of rising DOC has, as in other studies relating to the carbon cycle, focused on factors related to climate change. Data from our peat-core experiments support an influence of climate on DOC, notably an increase in production with temperature under aerobic, and to a lesser extent anaerobic, conditions. However, we argue that climatic factors may not be the dominant drivers of DOC change. DOC solubility is suppressed by high soil water acidity and ionic strength, both of which have decreased as a result of declining sulphur deposition since the 1980s, augmented during the 1990s in the United Kingdom by a cyclical decline in sea-salt deposition. Our observational and experimental data demonstrate a clear, inverse and quantitatively important link between DOC and sulphate concentrations in soil solution. Statistical analysis of 11 AWMN lakes suggests that rising temperature, declining sulphur deposition and changing sea-salt loading can account for the majority of the observed DOC trend. This combination of evidence points to the changing chemical composition of atmospheric deposition, particularly the substantial reduction in anthropogenic sulphur emissions during the last 20 years, as a key cause of rising DOC. The implications of rising DOC export for the carbon cycle will be very different if linked primarily to decreasing acid deposition, rather than to changes in climate, suggesting that these systems may be recovering rather than destabilising.

Buffering of recovery from acidification by organic acids

In the United Kingdom, as in other regions of Europe and North America, recent decreases in surface water sulphate concentrations, due to reduced sulphur emissions, have coincided with marked increases in dissolved organic carbon (DOC) concentrations. Since many of the compounds comprising DOC are acidic, the resulting increases in organic acidity may have the potential to offset the benefits of a decrease in mineral (sulphate) acidity. To test this, we used a triprotic model of organic acid dissociation to estimate the proportional organic acid buffering of reduced mineral acidity as measured in the 22 lakes and streams monitored by the UK Acid Waters Monitoring Network. For an average non-marine sulphate decrease of 30 μeq l− 1 over 15 years from 1988–2003, we estimate that around 28% was counterbalanced by rising strong organic acids, 20% by rising alkalinity (partly attributable to an increase in weak organic acids), 11% by falling inorganic aluminium and 41% by falling non-marine base cations. The situation is complicated by a concurrent decrease in marine ion concentrations, and the impact this may have had on both DOC and acidity, but results clearly demonstrate that organic acid increases have substantially limited the amount of recovery from acidification (in terms of rising alkalinity and falling aluminium) that have resulted from reducing sulphur emissions. The consistency and magnitude of sulphate and organic acid changes are consistent with a causal link between the two, possibly due to the effects of changing acidity, ionic strength and aluminium concentrations on organic matter solubility. If this is the case, then organic acids can be considered effective but partial buffers to acidity change in organic soils, and this mechanism needs to be considered in assessing and modelling recovery from acidification, and in defining realistic reference conditions. However, large spatial variations in the relative magnitude of organic acid and sulphate changes, notably for low-deposition sites in northwestern areas where organic acid increases apparently exceed non-marine sulphate decreases, suggest that additional factors, such as changes in sea-salt deposition and climatic factors, may be required to explain the full magnitude of DOC increases in UK surface waters.

The relationship between the North American summer monsoon, the Rocky Mountains and the North Pacific subtropical anticyclone in HadAM3

In this study the relationship between the North American monsoon, the Californian sea surface temperature (SST) cold pool, the Rocky Mountains and the North Pacific subtropical anticyclone is investigated using the Hadley Centre's atmospheric climate model, HadAM3. In 1996 Hoskins hypothesized that heating in the North American monsoon might be important for the maintenance of the summertime North Pacific subtropical anticyclone, since the monsoon heating may induce descent to the north-west of the monsoon in the descending eastern flank of the subtropical anticyclone. This descent is further enhanced by radiative cooling and is associated with equatorward surface winds parallel to the western coast of North America. These equatorward winds induce oceanic upwelling of cold water and contribute to the formation of the Californian SST cold pool, which may feed back on the anticyclone by further suppressing convection and inducing descent. More recently, Rodwell and Hoskins also investigated the global summer monsoon–subtropical anticyclone relationship. They examined the role that mountains play in impeding the progress of the low-level mid-latitude westerlies, either deflecting the westerlies northwards where they ascend along the sloping mid-latitude isentropes or deflecting them southwards forcing them to descend along the isentropes. In particular, the introduction of the Rockies into a primitive-equation model adiabatically induces descent in the eastern descending flank of the North Pacific subtropical anticyclone. These hypothesized mechanisms have been investigated using HadAM3, focusing on the possible suppression of convection by the Californian SST cold pool, the response of the North Pacific subtropical anticyclone to the strength of the North American monsoon and the ‘blocking’ of the mid-latitude westerlies by the Rocky Mountains. The role of the Rockies is examined by integrating the model with modified orography for the Rocky Mountains. Changing the height of the Rockies alters the circulation in a way consistent with the mechanism outlined above. Higher Rocky mountains force the westerlies southwards, inducing descent in the eastern flank of the subtropical anticyclone as the air descends along the sloping isentropes. The relationship between the North American monsoon and the North Pacific subtropical anticyclone is investigated by suppressing the monsoon in HadAM3. The suppression of the monsoon is accomplished by increasing the surface albedo over Mexico, which induces anomalous ascent on the eastward flank of the subtropical anticyclone and anomalous polewards surface winds along the western coast of the North American continent, also providing support for the above hypothesis. The removal of the Californian SST cold pool, however, has a statistically insignificant effect on the model, suggesting that in this model the feedback of the SST cold pool on the eastern flank of the anticyclone is weak.

Why the home region matters: location and regional multinationals

Much of the literature in international business analysing the multinational enterprise uses the country as the relevant environmental parameter. This paper presents both theoretical and empirical evidence to demonstrate that country-level analysis now needs to be augmented by analysis at the ‘regional’ level of the broad triad markets of Europe, North America and the Asia Pacific. The great majority of the world's 500 largest firms concentrate their activities within their home region of the triad. This study uses variance component analysis and finds that this home region effect outperforms the country effect. Together, the regional and industry effects explain most of the geographic expansion of multinational enterprises (MNEs), whereas country, firm and year effects are very minor. The new data and variance component analysis on the activities of large MNEs reported here suggest that new thinking is required about the importance of large regions of the triad as the relevant unit of analysis for business strategy to supplement the conventional focus on the country.

Trends in nutrients

The roles of nitrogen (N) and phosphorus (P) as key nutrients determining the trophic status of water bodies are examined, and evidence reviewed for trends in concentrations of N and P species which occur in freshwaters, primarily in northern temperate environments. Data are reported for water bodies undergoing eutrophication and acidification, especially water bodies receiving increased nitrogen inputs through the atmospheric deposition of nitrogen oxides (NOx). Nutrient loading on groundwaters and surface freshwaters is assessed with respect to causes and rates of change, relative rates of change for N and P, and implications of change for the future management of lakes, rivers and groundwaters. In particular, the nature and emphasis of studies for N species and P fractions in lakes versus rivers and groundwaters are contrasted. This review paper primarily focuses on results from North America and Europe, particularly for the UK where a wide range of data sets exists. Few nutrient loading data have been published on water bodies in less developed countries; however, some of the available data are presented to provide a global perspective. In general, N and P concentrations have increased dramatically (>20 times background concentrations) in many areas and causes vary considerably, ranging from urbanization to changes in agricultural practices.

Cultural phylogeography of the Bantu Languages of sub-Saharan Africa

There is disagreement about the routes taken by populations speaking Bantu languages as they expanded to cover much of sub-Saharan Africa. Here, we build phylogenetic trees of Bantu languages and map them onto geographical space in order to assess the likely pathway of expansion and test between dispersal scenarios. The results clearly support a scenario in which groups first moved south through the rainforest from a homeland somewhere near the Nigeria–Cameroon border. Emerging on the south side of the rainforest, one branch moved south and west. Another branch moved towards the Great Lakes, eventually giving rise to the monophyletic clade of East Bantu languages that inhabit East and Southeastern Africa. These phylogenies also reveal information about more general processes involved in the diversification of human populations into distinct ethnolinguistic groups. Our study reveals that Bantu languages show a latitudinal gradient in covering greater areas with increasing distance from the equator. Analyses suggest that this pattern reflects a true ecological relationship rather than merely being an artefact of shared history. The study shows how a phylogeographic approach can address questions relating to the specific histories of certain groups, as well as general cultural evolutionary processes.

Evaluation of modelled regional water balance using lake status data: a comparison of 6ka simulations with the NCAR CCM

Variations in lake area and depth reflect climatically induced changes in the water balance of overflowing as well as closed lakes. A new global data base of lake status has been assembled, and is used to compare two simulations for 6 ka (6000 yr ago) made with successive R15 versions of the NCAR Community Climate Model (CCM). Simulated water balance was expressed as anomalies of annual precipitation minus evaporation (P-E); observed water balance as anomalies of lake status. Comparisons were made visually, by comparing regional averages, and by a statistic that compares the signs of simulated P-E anomalies (smoothly interpolated to the lake sites) with the status anomalies. Both CCM0 and CCM1 showed enhanced Northern-Hemisphere monsoons at 6 ka. Both underestimated the effect, but CCM1 fitted the spatial patterns better. In the northern mid- and high-latitudes the two versions differed more, and fitted the data less satisfactorily. CCM1 performed better than CCM0 in North America and central Eurasia, but not in Europe. Both models (especially CCM0) simulated excessive aridity in interior Eurasia. The models were systematically wrong in the southern mid-latitudes. Problems may have been caused by inadequate treatment of changes in sea-surface conditions in both models. Palaeolake status data will continue to provide a benchmark for the evaluation of modelling improvements.

Glacial lake drainage in Patagonia (13-8 kyr) and response of the adjacent Pacific Ocean

Large freshwater lakes formed in North America and Europe during deglaciation following the Last Glacial Maximum. Rapid drainage of these lakes into the Oceans resulted in abrupt perturbations in climate, including the Younger Dryas and 8.2 kyr cooling events. In the mid-latitudes of the Southern Hemisphere major glacial lakes also formed and drained during deglaciation but little is known about the magnitude, organization and timing of these drainage events and their e ect on regional climate. We use 16 new single-grain optically stimulated luminescence (OSL) dates to de ne three stages of rapid glacial lake drainage in the Lago General Carrera/Lago Buenos Aires and Lago Cohrane/ Pueyrredón basins of Patagonia and provide the rst assessment of the e ects of lake drainage on the Paci c Ocean. Lake drainage occurred between 13 and 8 kyr ago and was initially gradual eastward into the Atlantic, then subsequently reorganized westward into the Paci c as new drainage routes opened up during Patagonian Ice Sheet deglaciation. Coupled ocean-atmosphere model experiments using HadCM3 with an imposed freshwater surface “hosing” to simulate glacial lake drainage suggest that a negative salinity anomaly was advected south around Cape Horn, resulting in brief but signi cant impacts on coastal ocean vertical mixing and regional climate.

A reversal of climatic trends in the North Atlantic since 2005

In the mid-1990s the North Atlantic subpolar gyre warmed rapidly, which had important climate impacts, such as increased hurricane numbers, and changes to rainfall over Africa, Europe and North America. Evidence suggests that the warming was largely due to a strengthening of the ocean circulation, particularly the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC). Since the mid-1990s direct and indirect measurements have suggested a decline in the strength of the ocean circulation, which is expected to lead to a reduction in northward heat transport. Here we show that since 2005 a large volume of the upper North Atlantic Ocean has cooled significantly by approximately -0.45C or 1.5x10^22 J, reversing the previous warming trend. By analysing observations and a state-of-the-art climate model, we show that this cooling is consistent with a reduction in the strength of the ocean circulation and heat transport, linked to record low densities in the deep Labrador Sea. The low density in the deep Labrador Sea is primarily due to deep ocean warming since 1995, but a long-term freshening also played a role. The observed upper ocean cooling since 2005 is not consistent with the hypothesis that anthropogenic aerosols directly drive Atlantic temperatures.

Spring into summer : a novel

Spring into Summer is a novel based on my experiences as a student living in London for a year. The central character, an American under-graduate student studying history, attempts to complete a piece of work by his older brother who is killed in a car accident several months prior to his brother's departure for England. The narrative traces the younger brother's efforts and eventual failure to work on the history; in so doing, he also fails to become more like his older brother whom he greatly loved and admired. Thus, a doppelganger, or "Double" of sorts is used. Most of the action of the novel is set in London. However, the main character also travels to Dublin, York, and several other places in the British Isles, thereby giving a more complete picture of the experiences an American student undergoes while living abroad. During a year which many people might see as an escape from the problems and pressures of everyday life, the central character is forced to undergo a painful process of self-examination, resulting in his reevaluation of himself, his priorities, and his ambitions.

Carpal tunnel syndrome: diagnostic usefulness of sonography

PURPOSE: To prospectively evaluate accuracy of sonography for diagnosis of carpal tunnel syndrome (CTS) in patients clinically suspected of having the disease in one or both hands.
MATERIALS AND METHODS: A prospective cohort of 133 patients suspected of having CTS were referred to a teaching hospital between October 2001 and June 2002 for electrodiagnostic study. One hundred twenty patients (98 women, 22 men; mean age, 49 years; range, 19–83 years) underwent sonography within 1 week after electrodiagnostic study. Radiologist was blinded to electrodiagnostic study results. Seventy-five patients had bilateral symptoms; 23 patients, right-hand symptoms; and 22 patients, left-hand symptoms (total, 195 symptomatic hands). Cross-sectional area of median nerve was measured at three levels: immediately proximal to carpal tunnel inlet, at carpal tunnel inlet, and at carpal tunnel outlet. Flexor retinaculum was used as a landmark to margins of carpal tunnel. Optimal threshold levels (determined with classification and regression tree analysis) for areas proximal to and at tunnel inlet and at tunnel outlet were used to discriminate between patients with and patients without disease. Sensitivity, specificity, and false-positive and false-negative rates were derived on the basis of final diagnosis, which was determined with clinical history and electrodiagnostic study results as reference standard.
RESULTS: For right hands, sonography had sensitivity of 94% (66 of 70); specificity, 65% (17 of 26); false-positive rate, 12% (nine of 75); and false-negative rate, 19% (four of 21) (cutoff, 0.09 cm2 proximal to tunnel inlet and 0.12 cm2 at tunnel outlet). For left hands, sensitivity was 83% (53 of 64); specificity, 73% (24 of 33); false-positive rate, 15% (nine of 62); and false-negative rate, 31% (11 of 35) (cutoff, 0.10 cm2 proximal to tunnel inlet).
CONCLUSION: Sonography is comparable to electrodiagnostic study in diagnosis of CTS and should be considered as initial test of choice for patients suspected of having CTS.

Importance of the contribution of Australians to the penetration of China by the China Inland Mission in the period 1888-1953, with particular reference to the work of Australian women missionaries

Australians, in the main, are unaware of the role which Australia played in the evangelization of China in the late nineteenth and the first half of the twentieth century. Most would never have heard of the China Inland Mission (CIM), the largest of the Protestant bodies which penetrated the Middle Kingdom, and few would know of the contribution that its Australian contingent, which consistently comprised about a tenth of the CIM's numbers, made towards the Christianization of that vast country. This thesis aims to raise the level of awareness in this area. Academic researchers have not totally neglected to examine the proselytization of China, and historians of the stature of Latourette have not let it escape their attention. However, most of the studies which have not merely fleetingly focused on the subject while viewing a larger canvas, have been North American, singling out the efforts of United States and Canadian bodies in introducing Christianity to the Chinese. Here, authors like Amerding, Bacon, Creighton, Gates, Hawkes, Ho, Ko, Mensendiek, Michell and Quale have left their mark. In the case of the present thesis, the outlook from which events played out in China are viewed is firmly based in Australia rather than North America. Earlier Australian research has been scarce, and is dominated by Loane and Dixon. Loane, evidently primarily working from Australasian Council minutes, mainly concentrates on the efforts of the CIM's Home Council, examining its endeavours decade by decade against a backdrop of contemporaneous events in China, and briefly referring to aspects of the lives of a cross-section of Australasian missionaries, without providing much idea about what they actually did in the field or what they achieved there. Because of its preoccupation with the Home Council, which never admitted women into its ranks, Loane's treatise is systemically biased towards men, though the more prominent of the women, like Mary Reed and Susie Garland, are given due recognition. The current thesis looks in detail at what Australians did in the field, the level of success they achieved, and at the particular contribution of Australian women towards the evangelization of China. Dixon took upon herself the formidable task of examining the endeavours of all missions in China which contained Australian missionaries. Because of the magnitude of her task, she could not focus to any great extent on particular missions, nor pursue in any detail the work of individual Australian missionaries. Like Loane, she was unable to explore what they actually did in the field or what they achieved there. Neither could she delve to any depth into the work of Australian women missionaries, though on the basis of the information she had accumulated, she drew the conclusion that Australian women had largely only brought about some unintended feminist consequences amongst Chinese women. This sweeping generalization failed to take into account the other very real social changes for Chinese women the Australian female missionaries quite purposely helped to bring about, and this thesis makes good that omission. This thesis studies aspects of the Australian missionary endeavour which both Loane and Dixon have neglected, thereby breaking new ground, and sets out to correct erroneous impressions which Dixon's dissertation has left on the historical record. One of these impressions concerned the longevity of the effect of the Australian effort in China. She had the View, writing in 1978, that the Chinese Church was moribund (a view shared by Varg and Lacy) , and that therefore the effects attributable to the endeavours of any nationality had proved fruitless, whereas the author is able to show, using modern-day sources, that the church has burgeoned in recent years thanks to earlier missionary endeavours and later neo-evangelistic efforts like Gospel radio, and now has a complement of perhaps 50 million adherents, making it second only to the United States in the size of its Protestant evangelical population. Another impression she left was that the Australian input into the evangelization of China can be largely dismissed because no totally Australian organization emerged, leaving the direction of Australia's effort in other hands. Contrary to that impression, the author shows that the Australian impact in China was significant and that Australians enjoyed more power than Dixon ever imagined. The author also shows that Australians were accepted as the equal of other nationalities in the CIM once they had acquired the necessary field expertise, a factor which doubtless also applied in respect of other missions with Australian components in China. Marchant has suggested that it is a fiction perpetuated by mission periodicals that Christianity spread and progressed in a determined manner in China. This thesis establishes that within the CIM's bailiwick, though there was some patchiness, Christianity progressed steadily and inexorably. One mission alone, the CIM, is concentrated upon, firstly in order to render the data manageable, secondly because it was the largest mission in China and had a sizeable Australian (including female) contingent, and thirdly because it exemplified many of the problems which would have been faced by missions in that country and their Australian components. The methodology employed is multifaceted. The written testimony of the missionaries themselves, contained in CIM periodicals, Field Bulletins, Monthly Notes, Annual Reports, autobiographies, personal files, diaries and letters is used to illustrate various aspects of the CIM's work in which Australians were engaged. This approach is augmented by other sources such as China and Australasian Home Council Minutes, missionary conference reports, Candidates' Books, biographies, and other selected material from archival holdings in Australia, Singapore, the United Kingdom, America and Canada. Statistics, especially ratio analyses and growth rate comparisons are used to demonstrate the relative success of different missions, missionaries and genders. Also employed are reminiscences of missionaries and descendants obtained by personal interview, and these are aggregated to provide some general conclusions. Data from these various sources have been synthesized to serve the central objective of demonstrating the importance of the contribution of Australians to the penetration of China by the CIM in the period 1888-1953 with particular reference to the work of Australian women missionaries.