953 resultados para Statistical inference


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The adulteration of extra virgin olive oil with other vegetable oils is a certain problem with economic and health consequences. Current official methods have been proved insufficient to detect such adulterations. One of the most concerning and undetectable adulterations with other vegetable oils is the addition of hazelnut oil. The main objective of this work was to develop a novel dimensionality reduction technique able to model oil mixtures as a part of an integrated pattern recognition solution. This final solution attempts to identify hazelnut oil adulterants in extra virgin olive oil at low percentages based on spectroscopic chemical fingerprints. The proposed Continuous Locality Preserving Projections (CLPP) technique allows the modelling of the continuous nature of the produced in house admixtures as data series instead of discrete points. This methodology has potential to be extended to other mixtures and adulterations of food products. The maintenance of the continuous structure of the data manifold lets the better visualization of this examined classification problem and facilitates a more accurate utilisation of the manifold for detecting the adulterants.

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In recent years, wide-field sky surveys providing deep multi-band imaging have presented a new path for indirectly characterizing the progenitor populations of core-collapse supernovae (SN): systematic light curve studies. We assemble a set of 76 grizy-band Type IIP SN light curves from Pan-STARRS1, obtained over a constant survey program of 4 years and classified using both spectroscopy and machine learning-based photometric techniques. We develop and apply a new Bayesian model for the full multi-band evolution of each light curve in the sample. We find no evidence of a sub-population of fast-declining explosions (historically referred to as "Type IIL" SNe). However, we identify a highly significant relation between the plateau phase decay rate and peak luminosity among our SNe IIP. These results argue in favor of a single parameter, likely determined by initial stellar mass, predominantly controlling the explosions of red supergiants. This relation could also be applied for supernova cosmology, offering a standardizable candle good to an intrinsic scatter of 0.2 mag. We compare each light curve to physical models from hydrodynamic simulations to estimate progenitor initial masses and other properties of the Pan-STARRS1 Type IIP SN sample. We show that correction of systematic discrepancies between modeled and observed SN IIP light curve properties and an expanded grid of progenitor properties, are needed to enable robust progenitor inferences from multi-band light curve samples of this kind. This work will serve as a pathfinder for photometric studies of core-collapse SNe to be conducted through future wide field transient searches.

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In this paper we present a new event recognition framework, based on the Dempster-Shafer theory of evidence, which combines the evidence from multiple atomic events detected by low-level computer vision analytics. The proposed framework employs evidential network modelling of composite events. This approach can effectively handle the uncertainty of the detected events, whilst inferring high-level events that have semantic meaning with high degrees of belief. Our scheme has been comprehensively evaluated against various scenarios that simulate passenger behaviour on public transport platforms such as buses and trains. The average accuracy rate of our method is 81% in comparison to 76% by a standard rule-based method.

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We study the sensitivity of a MAP configuration of a discrete probabilistic graphical model with respect to perturbations of its parameters. These perturbations are global, in the sense that simultaneous perturbations of all the parameters (or any chosen subset of them) are allowed. Our main contribution is an exact algorithm that can check whether the MAP configuration is robust with respect to given perturbations. Its complexity is essentially the same as that of obtaining the MAP configuration itself, so it can be promptly used with minimal effort. We use our algorithm to identify the largest global perturbation that does not induce a change in the MAP configuration, and we successfully apply this robustness measure in two practical scenarios: the prediction of facial action units with posed images and the classification of multiple real public data sets. A strong correlation between the proposed robustness measure and accuracy is verified in both scenarios.

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A credal network is a graph-theoretic model that represents imprecision in joint probability distributions. An inference in a credal net aims at computing an interval for the probability of an event of interest. Algorithms for inference in credal networks can be divided into exact and approximate. The selection of an algorithm is based on a trade off that ponders how much time someone wants to spend in a particular calculation against the quality of the computed values. This paper presents an algorithm, called IDS, that combines exact and approximate methods for computing inferences in polytree-shaped credal networks. The algorithm provides an approach to trade time and precision when making inferences in credal nets

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Credal networks generalize Bayesian networks by relaxing the requirement of precision of probabilities. Credal networks are considerably more expressive than Bayesian networks, but this makes belief updating NP-hard even on polytrees. We develop a new efficient algorithm for approximate belief updating in credal networks. The algorithm is based on an important representation result we prove for general credal networks: that any credal network can be equivalently reformulated as a credal network with binary variables; moreover, the transformation, which is considerably more complex than in the Bayesian case, can be implemented in polynomial time. The equivalent binary credal network is then updated by L2U, a loopy approximate algorithm for binary credal networks. Overall, we generalize L2U to non-binary credal networks, obtaining a scalable algorithm for the general case, which is approximate only because of its loopy nature. The accuracy of the inferences with respect to other state-of-the-art algorithms is evaluated by extensive numerical tests.

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Hidden Markov models (HMMs) are widely used models for sequential data. As with other probabilistic graphical models, they require the specification of precise probability values, which can be too restrictive for some domains, especially when data are scarce or costly to acquire. We present a generalized version of HMMs, whose quantification can be done by sets of, instead of single, probability distributions. Our models have the ability to suspend judgment when there is not enough statistical evidence, and can serve as a sensitivity analysis tool for standard non-stationary HMMs. Efficient inference algorithms are developed to address standard HMM usage such as the computation of likelihoods and most probable explanations. Experiments with real data show that the use of imprecise probabilities leads to more reliable inferences without compromising efficiency.

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Credal nets generalize Bayesian nets by relaxing the requirement of precision of probabilities. Credal nets are considerably more expressive than Bayesian nets, but this makes belief updating NP-hard even on polytrees. We develop a new efficient algorithm for approximate belief updating in credal nets. The algorithm is based on an important representation result we prove for general credal nets: that any credal net can be equivalently reformulated as a credal net with binary variables; moreover, the transformation, which is considerably more complex than in the Bayesian case, can be implemented in polynomial time. The equivalent binary credal net is updated by L2U, a loopy approximate algorithm for binary credal nets. Thus, we generalize L2U to non-binary credal nets, obtaining an accurate and scalable algorithm for the general case, which is approximate only because of its loopy nature. The accuracy of the inferences is evaluated by empirical tests.

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This paper considers inference from multinomial data and addresses the problem of choosing the strength of the Dirichlet prior under a mean-squared error criterion. We compare the Maxi-mum Likelihood Estimator (MLE) and the most commonly used Bayesian estimators obtained by assuming a prior Dirichlet distribution with non-informative prior parameters, that is, the parameters of the Dirichlet are equal and altogether sum up to the so called strength of the prior. Under this criterion, MLE becomes more preferable than the Bayesian estimators at the increase of the number of categories k of the multinomial, because non-informative Bayesian estimators induce a region where they are dominant that quickly shrinks with the increase of k. This can be avoided if the strength of the prior is not kept constant but decreased with the number of categories. We argue that the strength should decrease at least k times faster than usual estimators do.

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A credal network associates a directed acyclic graph with a collection of sets of probability measures; it offers a compact representation for sets of multivariate distributions. In this paper we present a new algorithm for inference in credal networks based on an integer programming reformulation. We are concerned with computation of lower/upper probabilities for a variable in a given credal network. Experiments reported in this paper indicate that this new algorithm has better performance than existing ones for some important classes of networks.

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This paper presents a new anytime algorithm for the marginal MAP problem in graphical models of bounded treewidth. We show asymptotic convergence and theoretical error bounds for any fixed step. Experiments show that it compares well to a state-of-the-art systematic search algorithm.