936 resultados para Species distribution modelling


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The Hauraki Gulf is a large, shallow embayment located north of Auckland City (36°51′S, 174°46′E), New Zealand. Bryde's whales (Balaenoptera edeni) are the most frequently observed balaenopterid in these waters. To assess the use of the Hauraki Gulf for this species, we examined the occurrence and distribution in relation to environmental parameters. Data were collected from a platform of opportunity during 674 daily surveys between March 2003 and February 2006. A total of 760 observations of Bryde's whales were recorded throughout the study period during 371 surveys. The number of Bryde's whales sighted/day was highest in winter, coinciding with the coolest median sea-surface temperature (14.6°C). Bryde's whales were recorded throughout the Hauraki Gulf in water depths ranging from 12.1–59.8 m (mean = 42.3, SD = 5.1). Cow–calf pairs were most frequently observed during the austral autumn in water depths of 29.9–53.9 m (mean = 40.8, SD = 5.2). Data from this study suggest Bryde's whales in the Hauraki Gulf exhibit a mix of both “inshore” and “offshore” characteristics from the Bryde's whales examined off the coast of South Africa. Based on complete mitochondrial DNA sequences, Sasaki et al. (2006) recognized two sister species of Bryde's whales: Balaenoptera brydei and B. edeni, with the latter including small-type, more coastal Bryde's whales from Japan, Hong Kong, and Australia. Their samples and samples in previous analyses of small-type whales, all originated from eastern and southeastern Asia. These authors did not include the forms of Bryde's whales that occur in other regions, e.g., in the Pacific off Peru (Valdivia et al. 1981), in the Atlantic off Brazil (Best 1977) and in the western Indian Ocean off South Africa (Best 1977). Recent genetic analysis using mtDNA from the “inshore” and “offshore” forms from South Africa confirms the offshore form is B. brydei, and establishes that the inshore form is more closely related to B. brydei than to B. edeni (Penry 2010). These different forms do vary considerably in their habitat use and ecology (refer to Table 1 for a detailed comparison between the South African inshore and offshore forms, as described by Best (1967, 1977) and the Bryde's whales from New Zealand (Wiseman 2008). Recent genetic analysis on the Bryde's whales in the Hauraki Gulf suggests they are B. brydei (Wiseman 2008). However, pending resolution of the uncertainty within and between species of this genus, we follow the Society of Marine Mammal's committee on taxonomy, who state that B. edeni applies to all Bryde's whales.

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The intermediate leaf-nosed bat (Hipposideros larvatus) is a medium-sized bat distributed throughout the Indo-Malay region. In north-east India, bats identified as H. larvatus captured at a single cave emitted echolocation calls with a bimodal distribution of peak frequencies, around either 85 kHz or 98 kHz. Individuals echolocating at 85 kHz had larger ears and longer forearms than those echolocating at 98 kHz, although no differences were detected in either wing morphology or diet, suggesting limited resource partitioning. A comparison of mitochondrial control region haplotypes of the two phonic types with individuals sampled from across the Indo-Malay range supports the hypothesis that, in India, two cryptic species are present. The Indian 98-kHz phonic bats formed a monophyletic clade with bats from all other regional populations sampled, to the exclusion of the Indian 85-kHz bats. In India, the two forms showed 12–13% sequence divergence and we propose that the name Hipposideros khasiana for bats of the 85-kHz phonic type. Bats of the 98-kHz phonic type formed a monophyletic group with bats from Myanmar, and corresponded to Hipposideros grandis, which is suggested to be a species distinct from Hipposideros larvatus. Differences in echolocation call frequency among populations did not reflect phylogenetic relationships, indicating that call frequency is a poor indicator of evolutionary history. Instead, divergence in call frequency probably occurs in allopatry, possibly augmented by character displacement on secondary contact to facilitate intraspecific communication.

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Anxiety disorders are increasingly acknowledged as a global health issue however an accurate picture of prevalence across populations is lacking. Empirical data are incomplete and inconsistent so alternate means of estimating prevalence are required to inform estimates for the new Global Burden of Disease Study 2010. We used a Bayesian meta-regression approach which included empirical epidemiological data, expert prior information, study covariates and population characteristics. Reported are global and regional point prevalence for anxiety disorders in 2010. Point prevalence of anxiety disorders differed by up to three-fold across world regions, ranging between 2.1% (1.8-2.5%) in East Asia and 6.1% (5.1-7.4%) in North Africa/Middle East. Anxiety was more common in Latin America; high income regions; and regions with a history of recent conflict. There was considerable uncertainty around estimates, particularly for regions where no data were available. Future research is required to examine whether variations in regional distributions of anxiety disorders are substantive differences or an artefact of cultural or methodological differences. This is a particular imperative where anxiety is consistently reported to be less common, and where it appears to be elevated, but uncertainty prevents the reporting of conclusive estimates.

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Background Although the detrimental impact of major depressive disorder (MDD) at the individual level has been described, its global epidemiology remains unclear given limitations in the data. Here we present the modelled epidemiological profile of MDD dealing with heterogeneity in the data, enforcing internal consistency between epidemiological parameters and making estimates for world regions with no empirical data. These estimates were used to quantify the burden of MDD for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2010 (GBD 2010). Method Analyses drew on data from our existing literature review of the epidemiology of MDD. DisMod-MR, the latest version of the generic disease modelling system redesigned as a Bayesian meta-regression tool, derived prevalence by age, year and sex for 21 regions. Prior epidemiological knowledge, study- and country-level covariates adjusted sub-optimal raw data. Results There were over 298 million cases of MDD globally at any point in time in 2010, with the highest proportion of cases occurring between 25 and 34 years. Global point prevalence was very similar across time (4.4% (95% uncertainty: 4.2–4.7%) in 1990, 4.4% (4.1–4.7%) in 2005 and 2010), but higher in females (5.5% (5.0–6.0%) compared to males (3.2% (3.0–3.6%) in 2010. Regions in conflict had higher prevalence than those with no conflict. The annual incidence of an episode of MDD followed a similar age and regional pattern to prevalence but was about one and a half times higher, consistent with an average duration of 37.7 weeks. Conclusion We were able to integrate available data, including those from high quality surveys and sub-optimal studies, into a model adjusting for known methodological sources of heterogeneity. We were also able to estimate the epidemiology of MDD in regions with no available data. This informed GBD 2010 and the public health field, with a clearer understanding of the global distribution of MDD.

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It is becoming increasingly popular to consider species interactions when managing ecological foodwebs. Such an approach is useful in determining how management can affect multiple species, with either beneficial or detrimental consequences. Identifying such actions is particularly valuable in the context of conservation decision making as funding is severely limited. This paper outlines a new approach that simplifies the resource allocation problem in a two species system for a range of species interactions: independent, mutualism, predator-prey, and competitive exclusion. We assume that both species are endangered and we do not account for decisions over time. We find that optimal funding allocation is to the conservation of the species with the highest marginal gain in expected probability of survival and that, across all except mutualist interaction types, optimal conservation funding allocation differs between species. Loss in efficiency from ignoring species interactions was most severe in predator-prey systems. The funding problem we address, where an ecosystem includes multiple threatened species, will only become more commonplace as increasing numbers of species worldwide become threatened. © 2011 Elsevier B.V.

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This paper presents simulation results for future electricity grids using an agent-based model developed with MODAM (MODular Agent-based Model). MODAM is introduced and its use demonstrated through four simulations based on a scenario that expects a rise of on-site renewable generators and electric vehicles (EV) usage. The simulations were run over many years, for two areas in Townsville, Australia, capturing variability in space of the technology uptake, and for two charging methods for EV, capturing people's behaviours and their impact on the time of the peak load. Impact analyses of these technologies were performed over the areas, down to the distribution transformer level, where greater variability of their contribution to the assets peak load was observed. The MODAM models can be used for different purposes such as impact of renewables on grid sizing, or on greenhouse gas emissions. The insights gained from using MODAM for technology assessment are discussed.

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Background There has been growing interest in mixed species plantation systems because of their potential to provide a range of socio-economic and bio-physical benefits which can be matched to the diverse needs of smallholders and communities. Potential benefits include the production of a range of forest products for home and commercial use; improved soil fertility especially when nitrogen fixing species are included; improved survival rates and greater productivity of species; a reduction in the amount of damage from pests or disease; and improved biodiversity and wildlife habitats. Despite these documented services and growing interest in mixed species plantation systems, the actual planting areas in the tropics are low, and monocultures are still preferred for industrial plantings and many reforestation programs because of perceived higher economic returns and readily available information about the species and their silviculture. In contrast, there are few guidelines for the design and management of mixed-species systems, including the social and ecological factors of successful mixed species plantings. Methods This protocol explains the methodology used to investigate the following question: What is the available evidence for the relative performance of different designs of mixed-species plantings for smallholder and community forestry in the tropics? This study will systematically search, identify and describe studies related to mixed species plantings across tropical and temperate zones to identify the social and ecological factors that affect polyculture systems. The objectives of this study are first to identify the evidence of biophysical or socio-economic factors that have been considered when designing mixed species systems for community and smallholder forestry in the tropics; and second, to identify gaps in research of mixed species plantations. Results of the study will help create guidelines that can assist practitioners, scientists and farmers to better design mixed species plantation systems for smallholders in the tropics.

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The distribution of a freshwater species is often dependent on its ability to disperse within the riverine system. Species with high dispersal abilities tend to be widespread, whereas those with restricted dispersal tend to be geographically restricted and are usually given higher conservation priority. Population structure was compared between a widespread freshwater prawn species, Macrobrachium australiense, and a narrow-range endemic freshwater prawn, Macrobrachium koombooloomba. The distribution of M. australiense and M. koombooloomba did not overlap, although suggested historical river-boundary rearrangements indicate that there has been the potential for dispersal into neighbouring catchments. A fragment of the mtDNA CO1 gene was analysed and a Mantel test revealed a significant isolation by distance effect for both species. Significant overall FST values confirmed that both species exhibited low levels of dispersal, a prediction for populations inhabiting a fragmented upland environment. The level of structure in M. australiense is surprising for a widely distributed species. Not all M. australiense populations conformed to the stream-hierarchy model, with results being best explained by historical river realignment or cross-catchment dispersal. The fact that both species show limited dispersal highlights the importance of conservation in highland areas for both endemic and widely spread species.

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In this work we discuss the development of a mathematical model to predict the shift in gas composition observed over time from a producing CSG (coal seam gas) well, and investigate the effect that physical properties of the coal seam have on gas production. A detailed (local) one-dimensional, two-scale mathematical model of a coal seam has been developed. The model describes the competitive adsorption and desorption of three gas species (CH4, CO2 and N2) within a microscopic, porous coal matrix structure. The (diffusive) flux of these gases between the coal matrices (microscale) and a cleat network (macroscale) is accounted for in the model. The cleat network is modelled as a one-dimensional, volume averaged, porous domain that extends radially from a central well. Diffusive and advective transport of the gases occurs within the cleat network, which also contains liquid water that can be advectively transported. The water and gas phases are assumed to be immiscible. The driving force for the advection in the gas and liquid phases is taken to be a pressure gradient with capillarity also accounted for. In addition, the relative permeabilities of the water and gas phases are considered as functions of the degree of water saturation.

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Recent research has identified marine molluscs as an excellent source of omega-3 long-chain polyunsaturated fatty acids (lcPUFAs), based on their potential for endogenous synthesis of lcPUFAs. In this study we generated a representative list of fatty acyl desaturase (Fad) and elongation of very long-chain fatty acid (Elovl) genes from major orders of Phylum Mollusca, through the interrogation of transcriptome and genome sequences, and various publicly available databases. We have identified novel and uncharacterised Fad and Elovl sequences in the following species: Anadara trapezia, Nerita albicilla, Nerita melanotragus, Crassostrea gigas, Lottia gigantea, Aplysia californica, Loligo pealeii and Chlamys farreri. Based on alignments of translated protein sequences of Fad and Elovl genes, the haeme binding motif and histidine boxes of Fad proteins, and the histidine box and seventeen important amino acids in Elovl proteins, were highly conserved. Phylogenetic analysis of aligned reference sequences was used to reconstruct the evolutionary relationships for Fad and Elovl genes separately. Multiple, well resolved clades for both the Fad and Elovl sequences were observed, suggesting that repeated rounds of gene duplication best explain the distribution of Fad and Elovl proteins across the major orders of molluscs. For Elovl sequences, one clade contained the functionally characterised Elovl5 proteins, while another clade contained proteins hypothesised to have Elovl4 function. Additional well resolved clades consisted only of uncharacterised Elovl sequences. One clade from the Fad phylogeny contained only uncharacterised proteins, while the other clade contained functionally characterised delta-5 desaturase proteins. The discovery of an uncharacterised Fad clade is particularly interesting as these divergent proteins may have novel functions. Overall, this paper presents a number of novel Fad and Elovl genes suggesting that many mollusc groups possess most of the required enzymes for the synthesis of lcPUFAs.

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Single nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs) are widely acknowledged as the marker of choice for many genetic and genomic applications because they show co-dominant inheritance, are highly abundant across genomes and are suitable for high-throughput genotyping. Here we evaluated the applicability of SNP markers developed from Crassostrea gigas and C. virginica expressed sequence tags (ESTs) in closely related Crassostrea and Ostrea species. A total of 213 putative interspecific level SNPs were identified from re-sequencing data in six amplicons, yielding on average of one interspecific level SNP per seven bp. High polymorphism levels were observed and the high success rate of transferability show that genic EST-derived SNP markers provide an efficient method for rapid marker development and SNP discovery in closely related oyster species. The six EST-SNP markers identified here will provide useful molecular tools for addressing questions in molecular ecology and evolution studies including for stock analysis (pedigree monitoring) in related oyster taxa.

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Gut bacterial communities are now known to influence a range of fitness related aspects of organisms. But how different the microbial community is in closely related species, and if these differences can be interpreted as adaptive is still unclear. In this study we compared microbial communities in two sets of closely related sympatric crater lake cichlid fish species pairs that show similar adaptations along the limnetic-benthic axis. The gut microbial community composition differs in the species pair inhabiting the older of two crater lakes. One major difference, relative to other fish, is that in these cichlids that live in hypersaline crater lakes, the microbial community is largely made up of Oceanospirillales (52.28%) which are halotolerant or halophilic bacteria. This analysis opens up further avenues to identify candidate symbiotic or co-evolved bacteria playing a role in adaptation to similar diets and life-styles or even have a role in speciation. Future functional and phylosymbiotic analyses might help to address these issues.

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External morphology is commonly used to identify bats as well as to investigate flight and foraging behavior, typically relying on simple length and area measures or ratios. However, geometric morphometrics is increasingly used in the biological sciences to analyse variation in shape and discriminate among species and populations. Here we compare the ability of traditional versus geometric morphometric methods in discriminating between closely related bat species – in this case European horseshoe bats (Rhinolophidae, Chiroptera) – based on morphology of the wing, body and tail. In addition to comparing morphometric methods, we used geometric morphometrics to detect interspecies differences as shape changes. Geometric morphometrics yielded improved species discrimination relative to traditional methods. The predicted shape for the variation along the between group principal components revealed that the largest differences between species lay in the extent to which the wing reaches in the direction of the head. This strong trend in interspecific shape variation is associated with size, which we interpret as an evolutionary allometry pattern.

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Provision of network infrastructure to meet rising network peak demand is increasing the cost of electricity. Addressing this demand is a major imperative for Australian electricity agencies. The network peak demand model reported in this paper provides a quantified decision support tool and a means of understanding the key influences and impacts on network peak demand. An investigation of the system factors impacting residential consumers’ peak demand for electricity was undertaken in Queensland, Australia. Technical factors, such as the customers’ location, housing construction and appliances, were combined with social factors, such as household demographics, culture, trust and knowledge, and Change Management Options (CMOs) such as tariffs, price,managed supply, etc., in a conceptual ‘map’ of the system. A Bayesian network was used to quantify the model and provide insights into the major influential factors and their interactions. The model was also used to examine the reduction in network peak demand with different market-based and government interventions in various customer locations of interest and investigate the relative importance of instituting programs that build trust and knowledge through well designed customer-industry engagement activities. The Bayesian network was implemented via a spreadsheet with a tick box interface. The model combined available data from industry-specific and public sources with relevant expert opinion. The results revealed that the most effective intervention strategies involve combining particular CMOs with associated education and engagement activities. The model demonstrated the importance of designing interventions that take into account the interactions of the various elements of the socio-technical system. The options that provided the greatest impact on peak demand were Off-Peak Tariffs and Managed Supply and increases in the price of electricity. The impact in peak demand reduction differed for each of the locations and highlighted that household numbers, demographics as well as the different climates were significant factors. It presented possible network peak demand reductions which would delay any upgrade of networks, resulting in savings for Queensland utilities and ultimately for households. The use of this systems approach using Bayesian networks to assist the management of peak demand in different modelled locations in Queensland provided insights about the most important elements in the system and the intervention strategies that could be tailored to the targeted customer segments.

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Aerosol black carbon (BC) mass concentrations ([BC]), measured continuously during a multi-platform field experiment, Integrated Campaign for Aerosols gases and Radiation Budget (ICARB, March-May 2006), from a network of eight observatories spread over geographically distinct environments of India, (which included five mainland stations, one highland station, and two island stations (one each ill Arabian Sea and Bay of Bengal)) are examined for their spatio-temporal characteristics. During the period of study, [BC] showed large variations across the country, with values ranging from 27 mu g m(3) over industrial/urban locations to as low as 0.065 mu g m(-3) over the Arabian Sea. For all mainland stations, [BC] remained high compared to highland as well as island stations. Among the island stations, Port Blair (PBR) had higher concentration of BC, compared to Minicoy (MCY), implying more absorbing nature of Bay of Bengal aerosols than Arabian Sea. The highland station Nainital (NTL), in the central Himalayas, showed low values of [BC], comparable or even lower than that of the island station PBR, indicating the prevalence of cleaner environment over there. An examination of the changes in the mean temporal features, as the season advances from winter (December-February) to pre-monsoon (March-May), revealed that: (a) Diurnal variations were pronounced over all the mainland stations, with all afternoon low and a nighttime high: (b) At the islands, the diurnal variations, though resembled those over the mainlands, were less pronounced; and (c) In contrast to this, highland station showed an opposite pattern with an afternoon high and a late night or early morning low. The diurnal variations at all stations are mainly caused by the dynamics of local Atmospheric Boundary Layer (ABL), At the entire mainland as well as island stations (except HYD and DEL), [BC] showed a decreasing trend from January to May, This is attributed to the increased convective mixing and to the resulting enhanced vertical dispersal of species in the ABL. In addition, large short-period modulations were observed at DEL and HYD, which appeared to be episodic, An examination of this in the light of the MODIS-derived fire count data over India along with the back-trajectory analysis revealed that advection of BC from extensive forest fires and biomass-burning regions upwind were largely responsible for this episodic enhancement in BC at HYD and DEL.