A systematic review of mathematical models of mosquito-borne pathogen transmission: 1970-2010

Mathematical models of mosquito-borne pathogen transmission originated in the early twentieth century to provide insights into how to most effectively combat malaria. The foundations of the Ross–Macdonald theory were established by 1970. Since then, there has been a growing interest in reducing the public health burden of mosquito-borne pathogens and an expanding use of models to guide their control. To assess how theory has changed to confront evolving public health challenges, we compiled a bibliography of 325 publications from 1970 through 2010 that included at least one mathematical model of mosquito-borne pathogen transmission and then used a 79-part questionnaire to classify each of 388 associated models according to its biological assumptions. As a composite measure to interpret the multidimensional results of our survey, we assigned a numerical value to each model that measured its similarity to 15 core assumptions of the Ross–Macdonald model. Although the analysis illustrated a growing acknowledgement of geographical, ecological and epidemiological complexities in modelling transmission, most models during the past 40 years closely resemble the Ross–Macdonald model. Modern theory would benefit from an expansion around the concepts of heterogeneous mosquito biting, poorly mixed mosquito-host encounters, spatial heterogeneity and temporal variation in the transmission process.

Mining temporal and spatial travel regularities for transit planning

Smart Card data from Automated Fare Collection system has been considered as a promising source of information for transit planning. However, literature has been limited to mining travel patterns from transit users and suggesting the potential of using this information. This paper proposes a method for mining spatial regular origins-destinations and temporal habitual travelling time from transit users. These travel regularity are discussed as being useful for transit planning. After reconstructing the travel itineraries, three levels of Density-Based Spatial Clustering of Application with Noise (DBSCAN) have been utilised to retrieve travel regularity of each of each frequent transit users. Analyses of passenger classifications and personal travel time variability estimation are performed as the examples of using travel regularity in transit planning. The methodology introduced in this paper is of interest for transit authorities in planning and managements

Literacy Theories for the Digital Age: Social, Critical, Multimodal, Spatial, Material and Sensory Lenses

Literacy Theories for the Digital Age insightfully brings together six essential approaches to literacy research and educational practice. The book provides powerful and accessible theories for readers, including Socio-cultural, Critical, Multimodal, Socio-spatial, Socio-material and Sensory Literacies. The brand new Sensory Literacies approach is an original and visionary contribution to the field, coupled with a provocative foreword from leading sensory anthropologist David Howes. This dynamic collection explores a legacy of literacy research while showing the relationships between each paradigm, highlighting their complementarity and distinctions. This highly relevant compendium will inspire readers to explore new frontiers of thought and practice in times of diversity and technological change.

Spatiotemporal model or time series model for assessing city-wide temperature effects on mortality?

Most studies examining the temperature–mortality association in a city used temperatures from one site or the average from a network of sites. This may cause measurement error as temperature varies across a city due to effects such as urban heat islands. We examined whether spatiotemporal models using spatially resolved temperatures produced different associations between temperature and mortality compared with time series models that used non-spatial temperatures. We obtained daily mortality data in 163 areas across Brisbane city, Australia from 2000 to 2004. We used ordinary kriging to interpolate spatial temperature variation across the city based on 19 monitoring sites. We used a spatiotemporal model to examine the impact of spatially resolved temperatures on mortality. Also, we used a time series model to examine non-spatial temperatures using a single site and the average temperature from three sites. We used squared Pearson scaled residuals to compare model fit. We found that kriged temperatures were consistent with observed temperatures. Spatiotemporal models using kriged temperature data yielded slightly better model fit than time series models using a single site or the average of three sites' data. Despite this better fit, spatiotemporal and time series models produced similar associations between temperature and mortality. In conclusion, time series models using non-spatial temperatures were equally good at estimating the city-wide association between temperature and mortality as spatiotemporal models.

Genetic variation in cytokine-related genes and migraine susceptibility

Migraine is classified by the World Health Organization (WHO) as being one of the top 20 most debilitating diseases. According to the neurovascular hypothesis, neuroinflammation may promote the activation and sensitisation of meningeal nociceptors, inducing the persistent throbbing headache characterized in migraine. The tumor necrosis factor (TNF) gene cluster, made up of TNFα, lymphotoxin α (LTA), and lymphotoxin β (LTB), has been implicated to influence the intensity and duration of local inflammation. It is thought that sterile inflammation mediated by LTA, LTB, and TNFα contributes to threshold brain excitability, propagation of neuronal hyperexcitability and thus initiation and maintenance of a migraine attack. Previous studies have investigated variants within the TNF gene cluster region in relation to migraine susceptibility, with largely conflicting results. The aim of this study was to expand on previous research and utilize a large case-control cohort and range of variants within the TNF gene cluster to investigate the role of the TNF gene cluster in migraine. Nine single nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs) were selected for investigation as follows: rs1800683, rs2229094, rs2009658, rs2071590, rs2239704, rs909253, rs1800630, rs1800629, and rs3093664. No significant association with migraine susceptibility was found for any of the SNPs tested, with further testing according to migraine subtype and gender also showing no association for disease risk. Haplotype analysis showed that none of the tested haplotypes were significantly associated with migraine.

Allelic variation at a single gene increases food value in a drought-tolerant staple cereal

The production of adequate agricultural outputs to support the growing human population places great demands on agriculture, especially in light of ever-greater restrictions on input resources. Sorghum is a drought-adapted cereal capable of reliable production where other cereals fail, and thus represents a good candidate to address food security as agricultural inputs of water and arable land grow scarce. A long-standing issue with sorghum grain is that it has an inherently lower digestibility. Here we show that a low-frequency allele type in the starch metabolic gene, pullulanase, is associated with increased digestibility, regardless of genotypic background. We also provide evidence that the beneficial allele type is not associated with deleterious pleiotropic effects in the modern field environment. We argue that increasing the digestibility of an adapted crop is a viable way forward towards addressing food security while maximizing water and land-use efficiency.

Regional contingencies in the relationship between aboveground biomass and litter in the world’s grasslands

Based on regional-scale studies, aboveground production and litter decomposition are thought to positively covary, because they are driven by shared biotic and climatic factors. Until now we have been unable to test whether production and decomposition are generally coupled across climatically dissimilar regions, because we lacked replicated data collected within a single vegetation type across multiple regions, obfuscating the drivers and generality of the association between production and decomposition. Furthermore, our understanding of the relationships between production and decomposition rests heavily on separate meta-analyses of each response, because no studies have simultaneously measured production and the accumulation or decomposition of litter using consistent methods at globally relevant scales. Here, we use a multi-country grassland dataset collected using a standardized protocol to show that live plant biomass (an estimate of aboveground net primary production) and litter disappearance (represented by mass loss of aboveground litter) do not strongly covary. Live biomass and litter disappearance varied at different spatial scales. There was substantial variation in live biomass among continents, sites and plots whereas among continent differences accounted for most of the variation in litter disappearance rates. Although there were strong associations among aboveground biomass, litter disappearance and climatic factors in some regions (e.g. U.S. Great Plains), these relationships were inconsistent within and among the regions represented by this study. These results highlight the importance of replication among regions and continents when characterizing the correlations between ecosystem processes and interpreting their global-scale implications for carbon flux. We must exercise caution in parameterizing litter decomposition and aboveground production in future regional and global carbon models as their relationship is complex.

Variation in leaf morphology of the invasive cat's claw creeper Dolichandra unguis-cati (Bignoniaceae)

The invasive liana cat’s claw creeper Dolichandra unguis-cati (L.) L.G. Lohmann (syn. Macfadyena unguis-cati (L.) A.H. Gentry) exhibits intraspecific variation in leaf morphology, but this is rarely noted in the published literature. The present study documents variation in leaf morphology in two forms of the species that occur in Australia (long pod and short pod). Leaf morphology is compared between the two forms and the position of the shoots (trunk and ground) at the only two sites in which they co-occur. Leaves were categorised on the basis of leaflet number and the presence or absence of tendrils. Simple leaves were produced mainly on shoots growing along the ground and were more abundant in the short-pod form. Long-pod plants were dominated by bifoliate leaves with tendrils. Cat’s claw creeper exhibits considerably wider variation in leaf morphology than recorded previously. Variations in leaf morphology may be linked to differences in the genotype, developmental stage and plastic responses of the plants. Understanding these variations may have implications for taxonomic delimitation and improved management, particularly biological control involving leaf-feeding insects.

The need for and appropriate application of spatial data for disaster management and strengthening community resilience

It is only in recent years that the critical role that spatial data can play in disaster management and strengthening community resilience has been recognised. The recognition of this importance is singularly evident from the fact that in Australia spatial data is considered as soft infrastructure. In the aftermath of every disaster this importance is being increasingly strengthened with state agencies paying greater attention to ensuring the availability of accurate spatial data based on the lessons learnt. For example, the major flooding in Queensland during the summer of 2011 resulted in a comprehensive review of responsibilities and accountability for the provision of spatial information during such natural disasters. A high level commission of enquiry completed a comprehensive investigation of the 2011 Brisbane flood inundation event and made specific recommendations concerning the collection of and accessibility to spatial information for disaster management and for strengthening community resilience during and after a natural disaster. The lessons learnt and processes implemented were subsequently tested by natural disasters during subsequent years. This paper provides an overview of the practical implementation of the recommendations of the commission of enquiry. It focuses particularly on the measures adopted by the state agencies with the primary role for managing spatial data and the evolution of this role in Queensland State, Australia. The paper concludes with a review of the development of the role and the increasing importance of spatial data as an infrastructure for disaster planning and management which promotes the strengthening of community resilience.

Quantification of ebullitive and diffusive methane release to atmosphere from a water storage

Accurately quantifying total freshwater storage methane release to atmosphere requires the spatial–temporal measurement of both diffusive and ebullitive emissions. Existing floating chamber techniques provide localised assessment of methane flux, however, significant errors can arise when weighting and extrapolation to the entire storage, particularly when ebullition is significant. An improved technique has been developed that compliments traditional chamber based experiments to quantify the storage-scale release of methane gas to atmosphere through ebullition using the measurements from an Optical Methane Detector (OMD) and a robotic boat. This provides a conservative estimate of the methane emission rate from ebullition along with the bubble volume distribution. It also georeferences the area of ebullition activity across entire storages at short temporal scales. An assessment on Little Nerang Dam in Queensland, Australia, demonstrated whole storage methane release significantly differed spatially and throughout the day. Total methane emission estimates showed a potential 32-fold variation in whole-of-dam rates depending on the measurement and extrapolation method and time of day used. The combined chamber and OMD technique showed that 1.8–7.0% of the surface area of Little Nerang Dam is accounting for up to 97% of total methane release to atmosphere throughout the day. Additionally, over 95% of detectable ebullition occurred in depths less than 12 m during the day and 6 m at night. This difference in spatial and temporal methane release rate distribution highlights the need to monitor significant regions of, if not the entire, water storage in order to provide an accurate estimate of ebullition rates and their contribution to annual methane emissions.

Imagining in the spatial design process

This thesis aims to expand our understanding of imagining in the spatial design disciplines of architecture and interior design. More than three decades after Lawson’s statement, the matter of “what goes on in a designer’s head”, or imagining and mental problem solving remains just as mysterious and just as pertinent, possibly more so given the social and environmental challenges facing humankind. The lines on a page, the small perspective sketches, the connection of lines and scrawled notes and other clues help us understand what may be going on in the mind of the architect or designer. However, how designers know that space intimately before it is built is not greatly understood and articulated – even by designers themselves. There is a gap in the market in terms of informed exploration of the thinking that occurs during the design process, and how this is translated into physical outcomes. In other words, what do we see in our mind’s eye during the design process? This thesis explores design thinking and design process; what we ‘see’ when we draw, what we ‘see’ when we design.

Choroidal thickness in childhood

Purpose To examine choroidal thickness (ChT) and its spatial distribution across the posterior pole in pediatric subjects with normal ocular health and minimal refractive error. Methods ChT was assessed using spectral domain optical coherence tomography (OCT) in 194 children aged between 4-12 years, with spherical equivalent refractive errors between +1.25 and -0.50 DS. A series of OCT scans were collected, imaging the choroid along 4 radial scan lines centered on the fovea (each separated by 45°). Frame averaging was used to reduce noise and enhance chorio-scleral junction visibility. The transverse scale of each scan was corrected to account for magnification effects associated with axial length. Two independent masked observers manually segmented the OCT images to determine ChT at foveal centre, and averaged across a series of perifoveal zones over the central 5 mm. Results The average subfoveal ChT was 330 ± 65 µm (range 189-538 µm), and was significantly influenced by age (p=0.04). The ChT of the 4 to 6 year old age group (312 ± 62 µm) was significantly thinner compared to the 7 to 9 year olds (337 ± 65 µm, p<0.05) and bordered on significance compared to the 10 to 12 year olds (341 ± 61 µm, p=0.08). ChT also exhibited significant variation across the posterior pole, being thicker in more central regions. The choroid was thinner nasally and inferiorly compared to temporally and superiorly. Multiple regression analysis revealed age, axial length and anterior chamber depth were significantly associated with subfoveal ChT (p<0.001). Conclusions ChT increases significantly from early childhood to adolescence. This appears to be a normal feature of childhood eye growth.

Incorporating spatial correlations into multispecies mean-field models

In biology, we frequently observe different species existing within the same environment. For example, there are many cell types in a tumour, or different animal species may occupy a given habitat. In modelling interactions between such species, we often make use of the mean field approximation, whereby spatial correlations between the locations of individuals are neglected. Whilst this approximation holds in certain situations, this is not always the case, and care must be taken to ensure the mean field approximation is only used in appropriate settings. In circumstances where the mean field approximation is unsuitable we need to include information on the spatial distributions of individuals, which is not a simple task. In this paper we provide a method that overcomes many of the failures of the mean field approximation for an on-lattice volume-excluding birth-death-movement process with multiple species. We explicitly take into account spatial information on the distribution of individuals by including partial differential equation descriptions of lattice site occupancy correlations. We demonstrate how to derive these equations for the multi-species case, and show results specific to a two-species problem. We compare averaged discrete results to both the mean field approximation and our improved method which incorporates spatial correlations. We note that the mean field approximation fails dramatically in some cases, predicting very different behaviour from that seen upon averaging multiple realisations of the discrete system. In contrast, our improved method provides excellent agreement with the averaged discrete behaviour in all cases, thus providing a more reliable modelling framework. Furthermore, our method is tractable as the resulting partial differential equations can be solved efficiently using standard numerical techniques.

First flush behaviour in urban residential catchments

The current state of knowledge in relation to first flush does not provide a clear understanding of the role of rainfall and catchment characteristics in influencing this phenomenon. This is attributed to the inconsistent findings from research studies due to the unsatisfactory selection of first flush indicators and how first flush is defined. The research study discussed in this thesis provides the outcomes of a comprehensive analysis on the influence of rainfall and catchment characteristics on first flush behaviour in residential catchments. Two sets of first flush indicators are introduced in this study. These indicators were selected such that they are representative in explaining in a systematic manner the characteristics associated with first flush. Stormwater samples and rainfall-runoff data were collected and recorded from stormwater monitoring stations established at three urban catchments at Coomera Waters, Gold Coast, Australia. In addition, historical data were also used to support the data analysis. Three water quality parameters were analysed, namely, total suspended solids (TSS), total phosphorus (TP) and total nitrogen (TN). The data analyses were primarily undertaken using multi criteria decision making methods, PROMETHEE and GAIA. Based on the data obtained, the pollutant load distribution curve (LV) was determined for the individual rainfall events and pollutant types. Accordingly, two sets of first flush indicators were derived from the curve, namely, cumulative load wash-off for every 10% of runoff volume interval (interval first flush indicators or LV) from the beginning of the event and the actual pollutant load wash-off during a 10% increment in runoff volume (section first flush indicators or P). First flush behaviour showed significant variation with pollutant types. TSS and TP showed consistent first flush behaviour. However, the dissolved fraction of TN showed significant differences to TSS and TP first flush while particulate TN showed similarities. Wash-off of TSS, TP and particulate TN during the first 10% of the runoff volume showed no influence from corresponding rainfall intensity. This was attributed to the wash-off of weakly adhered solids on the catchment surface referred to as "short term pollutants" or "weakly adhered solids" load. However, wash-off after 10% of the runoff volume showed dependency on the rainfall intensity. This is attributed to the wash-off of strongly adhered solids being exposed when the weakly adhered solids diminish. The wash-off process was also found to depend on rainfall depth at the end part of the event as the strongly adhered solids are loosened due to impact of rainfall in the earlier part of the event. Events with high intensity rainfall bursts after 70% of the runoff volume did not demonstrate first flush behaviour. This suggests that rainfall pattern plays a critical role in the occurrence of first flush. Rainfall intensity (with respect to the rest of the event) that produces 10% to 20% runoff volume play an important role in defining the magnitude of the first flush. Events can demonstrate high magnitude first flush when the rainfall intensity occurring between 10% and 20% of the runoff volume is comparatively high while low rainfall intensities during this period produces low magnitude first flush. For events with first flush, the phenomenon is clearly visible up to 40% of the runoff volume. This contradicts the common definition that first flush only exists, if for example, 80% of the pollutant mass is transported in the first 30% of runoff volume. First flush behaviour for TN is different compared to TSS and TP. Apart from rainfall characteristics, the composition and the availability of TN on the catchment also play an important role in first flush. The analysis confirmed that events with low rainfall intensity can produce high magnitude first flush for the dissolved fraction of TN, while high rainfall intensity produce low dissolved TN first flush. This is attributed to the source limiting behaviour of dissolved TN wash-off where there is high wash-off during the initial part of a rainfall event irrespective of the intensity. However, for particulate TN, the influence of rainfall intensity on first flush characteristics is similar to TSS and TP. The data analysis also confirmed that first flush can occur as high magnitude first flush, low magnitude first flush or non existence of first flush. Investigation of the influence of catchment characteristics on first flush found that the key factors that influence the phenomenon are the location of the pollutant source, spatial distribution of the pervious and impervious surfaces in the catchment, drainage network layout and slope of the catchment. This confirms that first flush phenomenon cannot be evaluated based on a single or a limited set of parameters as a number of catchment characteristics should be taken into account. Catchments where the pollutant source is located close to the outlet, a high fraction of road surfaces, short travel time to the outlet, with steep slopes can produce high wash-off load during the first 50% of the runoff volume. Rainfall characteristics have a comparatively dominant impact on the wash-off process compared to the catchment characteristics. In addition, the pollutant characteristics also should be taken into account in designing stormwater treatment systems due to different wash-off behaviour. Analysis outcomes confirmed that there is a high TSS load during the first 20% of the runoff volume followed by TN which can extend up to 30% of the runoff volume. In contrast, high TP load can exist during the initial and at the end part of a rainfall event. This is related to the composition of TP available for the wash-off.

A nanometre-scale non-periodic structural variation in high temperature superconducting ceramics and the implications for properties

Non-periodic structural variation has been found in the high Tc cuprates, YBa2Cu3O7-x and Hg0.67Pb0.33Ba2Ca2Cu 3O8+δ, by image analysis of high resolution transmission electron microscope (HRTEM) images. We use two methods for analysis of the HRTEM images. The first method is a means for measuring the bending of lattice fringes at twin planes. The second method is a low-pass filter technique which enhances information contained by diffuse-scattered electrons and reveals what appears to be an interference effect between domains of differing lattice parameter in the top and bottom of the thin foil. We believe that these methods of image analysis could be usefully applied to the many thousands of HRTEM images that have been collected by other workers in the high temperature superconductor field. This work provides direct structural evidence for phase separation in high Tc cuprates, and gives support to recent stripes models that have been proposed to explain various angle resolved photoelectron spectroscopy and nuclear magnetic resonance data. We believe that the structural variation is a response to an opening of an electronic solubility gap where holes are not uniformly distributed in the material but are confined to metallic stripes. Optimum doping may occur as a consequence of the diffuse boundaries between stripes which arise from spinodal decomposition. Theoretical ideas about the high Tc cuprates which treat the cuprates as homogeneous may need to be modified in order to take account of this type of structural variation.