Is Early Warning Effective for the Improvement of Problem Solving and Project Performance?

Since the first launch of the new engineering contract (NEC) in 1993, early warning of problems has been widely recognized as an important approach of proactive management during a construction or engineering project. Is early warning really effective for the improvement of problem solving and project performance? This is a research question that still lacks a good answer. For this reason, an empirical investigation was made in the United Kingdom (U.K.) to answer the question. This study adopts a combination of literature review, expert interview, and questionnaire survey. Nearly 100 questionnaire responses were collected from the U.K. construction industry, based on which the use of early warning under different forms of contract is compared in this paper. Problem solving and project performance are further compared between the projects using early warning and the projects not using early warning. The comparison provides clear evidence for the significant effect of early warning on problem solving and project performance in terms of time, cost, and quality. Subsequently, an input-process-output model is developed in this paper to explore the relationship among early warning, problem solving, and project
performance. All these help construction researchers and practitioners to better understand the role of early warning in ensuring project success.

Generalized Langevin equation: An efficient approach to nonequilibrium molecular dynamics of open systems

The generalized Langevin equation (GLE) has been recently suggested to simulate the time evolution of classical solid and molecular systems when considering general nonequilibrium processes. In this approach, a part of the whole system (an open system), which interacts and exchanges energy with its dissipative environment, is studied. Because the GLE is derived by projecting out exactly the harmonic environment, the coupling to it is realistic, while the equations of motion are non-Markovian. Although the GLE formalism has already found promising applications, e. g., in nanotribology and as a powerful thermostat for equilibration in classical molecular dynamics simulations, efficient algorithms to solve the GLE for realistic memory kernels are highly nontrivial, especially if the memory kernels decay nonexponentially. This is due to the fact that one has to generate a colored noise and take account of the memory effects in a consistent manner. In this paper, we present a simple, yet efficient, algorithm for solving the GLE for practical memory kernels and we demonstrate its capability for the exactly solvable case of a harmonic oscillator coupled to a Debye bath.

Sound Synthesis for Contact-Driven Musical Instruments via Discretisation of Hamilton's Equations

Physical modelling of musical instruments involves studying nonlinear interactions between parts of the instrument. These can pose several difficulties concerning the accuracy and stability of numerical algorithms. In particular, when the underlying forces are non-analytic functions of the phase-space variables, a stability proof can only be obtained in limited cases. An approach has been recently presented by the authors, leading to unconditionally stable simulations for lumped collision models. In that study, discretisation of Hamilton’s equations instead of the usual Newton’s equation of motion yields a numerical scheme that can be proven to be energy conserving. In this paper, the above approach is extended to collisions of distributed objects. Namely, the interaction of an ideal string with a flat barrier is considered. The problem is formulated within the Hamiltonian framework and subsequently discretised. The resulting nonlinearmatrix equation can be shown to possess a unique solution, that enables the update of the algorithm. Energy conservation and thus numerical stability follows in a way similar to the lumped collision model. The existence of an analytic description of this interaction allows the validation of the model’s accuracy. The proposed methodology can be used in sound synthesis applications involving musical instruments where collisions occur either in a confined (e.g. hammer-string interaction, mallet impact) or in a distributed region (e.g. string-bridge or reed-mouthpiece interaction).

SOLVING THE INHOMOGENEOUS SCHRODINGER-EQUATION ON A BIDIRECTIONAL PIPELINE OF TRANSPUTERS

In this paper we describe the design of a parallel solution of the inhomogeneous Schrodinger equation, which arises in the construction of continuum orbitals in the R-matrix theory of atomic continuum processes. A prototype system is described which has been programmed in occam2 and implemented on a bi-directional pipeline of transputers. Some timing results for the prototype system are presented, and the development of a full production system is discussed.

Scaling of magneto-quantum-radiative hydrodynamic equations: From laser-produced plasmas to astrophysics

We introduce the equations of magneto-quantum-radiative hydrodynamics. By rewriting them in a dimensionless form, we obtain a set of parameters that describe scale-dependent ratios of characteristic hydrodynamic quantities. We discuss how these dimensionless parameters relate to the scaling between astrophysical observations and laboratory experiments.

On the complexity of solving polytree-shaped limited memory influence diagrams with binary variables

Influence diagrams are intuitive and concise representations of structured decision problems. When the problem is non-Markovian, an optimal strategy can be exponentially large in the size of the diagram. We can avoid the inherent intractability by constraining the size of admissible strategies, giving rise to limited memory influence diagrams. A valuable question is then how small do strategies need to be to enable efficient optimal planning. Arguably, the smallest strategies one can conceive simply prescribe an action for each time step, without considering past decisions or observations. Previous work has shown that finding such optimal strategies even for polytree-shaped diagrams with ternary variables and a single value node is NP-hard, but the case of binary variables was left open. In this paper we address such a case, by first noting that optimal strategies can be obtained in polynomial time for polytree-shaped diagrams with binary variables and a single value node. We then show that the same problem is NP-hard if the diagram has multiple value nodes. These two results close the fixed-parameter complexity analysis of optimal strategy selection in influence diagrams parametrized by the shape of the diagram, the number of value nodes and the maximum variable cardinality.

Solving Decision Problems with Limited Information

We present a new algorithm for exactly solving decision-making problems represented as an influence diagram. We do not require the usual assumptions of no forgetting and regularity, which allows us to solve problems with limited information. The algorithm, which implements a sophisticated variable elimination procedure, is empirically shown to outperform a state-of-the-art algorithm in randomly generated problems of up to 150 variables and 10^64 strategies.

Solving Limited Memory Influence Diagrams

We present a new algorithm for exactly solving decision making problems represented as influence diagrams. We do not require the usual assumptions of no forgetting and regularity; this allows us to solve problems with simultaneous decisions and limited information. The algorithm is empirically shown to outperform a state-of-the-art algorithm on randomly generated problems of up to 150 variables and 10^64 solutions. We show that these problems are NP-hard even if the underlying graph structure of the problem has low treewidth and the variables take on a bounded number of states, and that they admit no provably good approximation if variables can take on an arbitrary number of states.

Solving Limited Memory Influence Diagrams

We present a new algorithm for exactly solving decision making problems represented as influence diagrams. We do not require the usual assumptions of no forgetting and regularity; this allows us to solve problems with simultaneous decisions and limited information. The algorithm is empirically shown to outperform a state-of-the-art algorithm on randomly generated problems of up to 150 variables and 10^64 solutions. We show that the problem is NP-hard even if the underlying graph structure of the problem has small treewidth and the variables take on a bounded number of states, but that a fully polynomial time approximation scheme exists for these cases. Moreover, we show that the bound on the number of states is a necessary condition for any efficient approximation scheme.

The Complexity of Approximately Solving Influence Diagrams

Influence diagrams allow for intuitive and yet precise description of complex situations involving decision making under uncertainty. Unfortunately, most of the problems described by influence diagrams are hard to solve. In this paper we discuss the complexity of approximately solving influence diagrams. We do not assume no-forgetting or regularity, which makes the class of problems we address very broad. Remarkably, we show that when both the treewidth and the cardinality of the variables are bounded the problem admits a fully polynomial-time approximation scheme.

Blind Characterisation of Sensors with Second-Order Dynamic Response

Compensation for the dynamic response of a temperature sensor usually involves the estimation of its input on the basis of the measured output and model parameters. In the case of temperature measurement, the sensor dynamic response is strongly dependent on the measurement environment and fluid velocity. Estimation of time-varying sensor model parameters therefore requires continuous textit{in situ} identification. This can be achieved by employing two sensors with different dynamic properties, and exploiting structural redundancy to deduce the sensor models from the resulting data streams. Most existing approaches to this problem assume first-order sensor dynamics. In practice, however second-order models are more reflective of the dynamics of real temperature sensors, particularly when they are encased in a protective sheath. As such, this paper presents a novel difference equation approach to solving the blind identification problem for sensors with second-order models. The approach is based on estimating an auxiliary ARX model whose parameters are related to the desired sensor model parameters through a set of coupled non-linear algebraic equations. The ARX model can be estimated using conventional system identification techniques and the non-linear equations can be solved analytically to yield estimates of the sensor models. Simulation results are presented to demonstrate the efficiency of the proposed approach under various input and parameter conditions.

An approach to determine the local boundary of small disturbance voltage stability region in a cut-set power space:基于微扰的割集电压稳定域局部边界求解方法

A new approach to determine the local boundary of voltage stability region in a cut-set power space (CVSR) is presented. Power flow tracing is first used to determine the generator-load pair most sensitive to each branch in the interface. The generator-load pairs are then used to realize accurate small disturbances by controlling the branch power flow in increasing and decreasing directions to obtain new equilibrium points around the initial equilibrium point. And, continuous power flow is used starting from such new points to get the corresponding critical points around the initial critical point on the CVSR boundary. Then a hyperplane cross the initial critical point can be calculated by solving a set of linear algebraic equations. Finally, the presented method is validated by some systems, including New England 39-bus system, IEEE 118-bus system, and EPRI-1000 bus system. It can be revealed that the method is computationally more efficient and has less approximation error. It provides a useful approach for power system online voltage stability monitoring and assessment. This work is supported by National Natural Science Foundation of China (No. 50707019), Special Fund of the National Basic Research Program of China (No. 2009CB219701), Foundation for the Author of National Excellent Doctoral Dissertation of PR China (No. 200439), Tianjin Municipal Science and Technology Development Program (No. 09JCZDJC25000), National Major Project of Scientific and Technical Supporting Programs of China During the 11th Five-year Plan Period (No. 2006BAJ03A06). ©2009 State Grid Electric Power Research Institute Press.

"Should I prioritize medical problem solving or attentive listening?": the dilemmas and challenges that medical students experience when learning to conduct consultations

Objective: Communication skills can be trained alongside clinical reasoning, history taking or clinical examination skills. This is advocated as a solution to the low transfer of communication skills. Still, students have to integrate the knowledge/skills acquired during different curriculum parts in patient consultations at some point. How do medical students experience these integrated consultations within a simulated environment and in real practice when dealing with responsibility?

Methods: Six focus groups were conducted with (pre-)/clerkship students.

Results: Students were motivated to practice integrated consultations with simulated patients and felt like 'real physicians'. However, their focus on medical problem solving drew attention away from improving their communication skills. Responsibility for real patients triggered students' identity development. This identity formation guided the development of an own consultation style, a process that was hampered by conflicting demands of role models.

Conclusion: Practicing complete consultations results in the dilemma of prioritizing medical problem solving above attention for patient communication. Integrated consultation training advances this dilemma to the pre-clerkship period. During clerkships this dilemma is heightened because real patients trigger empathy and responsibility, which invites students to define their role as doctor.

Practice Implications: When training integrated consultations, educators should pay attention to students' learning priorities and support the development of students' professional identity.

Anytime Algorithms for Solving Possibilistic MDPs and Hybrid MDPs

The ability of an agent to make quick, rational decisions in an uncertain environment is paramount for its applicability in realistic settings. Markov Decision Processes (MDP) provide such a framework, but can only model uncertainty that can be expressed as probabilities. Possibilistic counterparts of MDPs allow to model imprecise beliefs, yet they cannot accurately represent probabilistic sources of uncertainty and they lack the efficient online solvers found in the probabilistic MDP community. In this paper we advance the state of the art in three important ways. Firstly, we propose the first online planner for possibilistic MDP by adapting the Monte-Carlo Tree Search (MCTS) algorithm. A key component is the development of efficient search structures to sample possibility distributions based on the DPY transformation as introduced by Dubois, Prade, and Yager. Secondly, we introduce a hybrid MDP model that allows us to express both possibilistic and probabilistic uncertainty, where the hybrid model is a proper extension of both probabilistic and possibilistic MDPs. Thirdly, we demonstrate that MCTS algorithms can readily be applied to solve such hybrid models.