946 resultados para Skill sorting


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The required professional and ethical pronouncements of accountants mean that auditors need to be competent and exercise due care and skill in the performance of their audits. In this study, we examine what happens when auditors take on more clients than they should, thus raising doubts about their ability to maintain competence and audit quality. Using 2803 observations of Malaysian companies from 2010 to 2013, we find that auditors with multiple clients are associated with lower earnings quality, proxied by total accruals and discretionary accruals. Our results demonstrate that associating client firms’ reported discretionary accruals with individual auditors, rather than their firms or offices, is important in determining audit quality. Moreover, we demonstrate that the disclosure of auditors’ signatures on their reports is useful for assessing auditor quality at the individual level, thus contributing to the debate on the usefulness of having auditor identities on reports.

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Construction and demolition (C&D) waste have negative impacts on the environment. As a significant proportion of C&D waste is related to the design stage of a project, there is an opportunity for architects to reduce the waste. However, research suggests that many architects often do not understand the impact of their design on waste generation. Training and education are proposed by current researchers to improve architects’ knowledge; however, this has not been adequately validated as a viable approach to solving waste issues. This research investigates architects’ perceptions towards waste management in the design phase, and determines whether they feel they are adequately skilled in reducing C&D waste. Questionnaire surveys were distributed to architects from 98 architectural firms and 25 completed surveys were returned. The results show that while architects are aware of the relationship between design and waste, ‘extra time’ and ‘lack of knowledge’ are the key barriers to implementing waste reduction strategies. In addition, the majority of respondents acknowledge their lack of skill to reduce waste through design evaluation. Therefore, training programmes can be a viable strategy to enable them to address the pressing issue of C&D waste reduction.

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"Fully revised edition of this widely used introduction to the core practice skills needed by social work and other human service professionals. 'The main strength of the book is the consistency of its themes throughout the text.I would like to commend the editors of this book for the contribution it should make to practice teaching with social work and welfare' - Karen Heycox in Australian Social Work Human service workers need more than just common sense. Practice Skills in Social Work and Welfare offers a comprehensive introduction to practice skills required across the human service sector. The authors use critical analysis to systematically outline the key stages of interaction with clients: engagement, assessment, intervention and evaluation. Drawing on a strengths approach, they examine the skills needed for working with different types of clients: individuals, families and community groups. They also explore the dilemmas faced in daily practice, including the challenges of working with involuntary clients, clients from different cultural backgrounds, and clients in crisis situations. Practice Skills in Social Work and Welfare provides a model of integrated practice which incorporates the key components of ideology, theory, phase, skill and context. Detailed case studies demonstrate how welfare services can be delivered in different contexts. This second edition has been thoroughly revised and updated and includes new material on online services and strengths-based practice. Written by experienced teachers and practitioners from Australia and New Zealand, Practice Skills in Social Work and Welfare is a practical and user friendly text for students and reference for practitioners."--Publisher website

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Structural specificity for the direct vesicle−vesicle exchange of phospholipids through stable molecular contacts formed by the antibiotic polymyxin B (PxB) is characterized by kinetic and spectroscopic methods. As shown elsewhere [Cajal, Y., Rogers, J., Berg, O. G., & Jain, M. K. (1996) Biochemistry 35, 299−308], intermembrane molecular contacts between anionic vesicles are formed by a small number of PxB molecules, which suggests that a stoichiometric complex may be responsible for the exchange of phospholipids. Larger clusters containing several vesicles are formed where each vesicle can make multiple contacts if sterically allowed. In this paper we show that the overall process can be dissected into three functional steps: binding of PxB to vesicles, formation of stable vesicle−vesicle contacts, and exchange of phospholipids. Polycationic PxB binds to anionic vesicles. Formation of molecular contacts and exchange of monoanionic phospholipids through PxB contacts does not depend on the chain length of the phospholipid. Only monoanionic phospholipids (with methanol, serine, glycol, butanol, or phosphatidylglycerol as the second phosphodiester substituent in the head group) exchange through these contacts, whereas dianionic phosphatidic acid does not. Selectivity for the exchange was also determined with covesicles of phosphatidylmethanol and other phospholipids. PxB does not bind to vesicles of zwitterionic phosphatidylcholine, and its exchange in covesicles is not mediated by PxB. Vesicles of dianionic phospholipids, like phosphatidic acid, bind PxB; however, this phospholipid does not exchange. The structural features of the contacts are characterized by the spectroscopic and chemical properties of PxB at the interface. PxB in intermembrane contacts is readily accessible from the aqueous phase to quenchers and reagents that modify amino groups. Results show that PxB at the interface can exist in two forms depending on the lipid/PxB ratio. Additional studies show that stable PxB-mediated vesicle−vesicle contacts may be structurally and functionally distinct from “stalks”, the putative transient intermediate for membrane fusion. The phenomenon of selective exchange of phospholipids through peptide-mediated contacts could serve as a prototype for intermembrane targeting and sorting of phospholipids during their biosynthesis and trafficking in different compartments of a cell. The protocols and results described here also extend the syllogistic foundations of interfacial equilibria and catalysis.

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Koulujen kestävän kehityksen työllä tarkoitetaan ekologiseen, taloudelliseen, sosiaaliseen ja kulttuuriseen kestävyyteen pohjautuvaa ympäristökasvatusta. Helsingissä peruskoulujen kestävän kehityksen työvälineet (ympäristökartoitukset ja – ohjelmat) ovat perustuneet koulujen ympäristöasioiden suunnitteluun, opetussuunnitelmien toteutumiseen ja ylläpitotoimintoihin, kuten jätehuoltoon. Opetusvirasto käytti vuosina 2005 ja 2009 ympäristötoiminnan arvioinnissa ympäristötasokuvauksia 1-3, joista arvosana 3 kuvaa ympäristöasioissa edistyneintä koulua. Tutkielman tavoitteena on tutkia ympäristötoiminnan tasojen perusteella ryhmiteltyjen peruskoulujen välisiä eroja jätekustannuksissa ja – määrissä (euroa/henkilö ja kg/henkilö) ja löytää mahdollisesti eroihin vaikuttavia tekijöitä. Tutkielman toimeksiantajana on 4V-Välitä, vaikuta, viihdy, voi hyvin – hanke, jonka yhtenä toiminnan osa-alueena on koulujen kestävän kehityksen työ. Tuloksista tullaan johtamaan tietoa Opetusviraston sekä muiden tahojen, kuten HSY:n ja Palmian ympäristötyöhön sekä Kiinteistöviraston Tilakeskuksen hallinnassa olevien koulukiinteistöjen jätehuollon kehittämiseen. Tutkimusaineistoina käytettiin Helsingin peruskoulujen vuoden 2009 jätekustannuksia ja tutkielman yhteydessä kerätyn jäteseurannan tuloksia vuodelta 2010. Jätekustannus- ja jätemääräaineistot yhdistettiin vuoden 2009 ympäristötoiminnan tasoluokitusten perusteella otokseksi (n=64). Lopullinen jätekustannus- ja jätemääräanalyysi tehtiin 29 koulun otoksella, josta oli rajattu pois kiinteistöt, joilla on koulun toiminnan lisäksi muita käyttötarkoituksia. Analyysiin sisällytettiin myös tarkempi tarkastelu koulujen seka- ja biojätejakeiden kustannuksista ja määristä. Tutkimuksen johtopäätöksenä todettiin, että eri ympäristötasoisten peruskoulujen välillä on huomattavia euro- ja kilomääräisiä eroja henkilöä kohden lasketuissa jätekustannuksissa ja –määrissä. Kokonaisjätemäärässä ei ole tapahtunut merkittävää muutosta tarkasteluvuosien välillä, mutta lajittelu näyttäisi kuitenkin tehostuneen. Tulosten perusteella ympäristöasioissa edistyneiden tason 3 koulujen keskimääräiset sekajätemäärät ja -kustannukset olivat pienimmät tasojen 1 ja 2 kouluihin verrattuna. Biojätemäärät ja –kustannukset olivat suurimmat tason 2 kouluissa. Jätekustannuksiin ja – määriin näyttäisivät vaikuttavan jäteastioiden määrien, kokojen ja tyhjennysrytmien optimointi sekä jäteastioiden täyttöasteet. Peruskoulujen tulisi keskittyä kestävän kehityksen työn avulla jätteiden synnyn ehkäisyyn ja vähentämiseen, jotta jätekustannuksetkin vähentyisivät jätehuollon kehittämistoimenpiteiden seurauksena.

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Prolyl oligopeptidase (POP, prolyl endopeptidase, EC 3.4.21.26) is a serine-type peptidase (family S9 of clan SC) hydrolyzing peptides shorter than 30 amino acids. POP has been found in various mammalian and bacterial sources and it is widely distributed throughout different organisms. In human and rat, POP enzyme activity has been detected in most tissues, with the highest activity found mostly in the brain. POP has gained scientific interest as being involved in the hydrolyzis of many bioactive peptides connected with learning and memory functions, and also with neurodegenerative disorders. In drug or lesion induced amnesia models and in aged rodents, POP inhibitors have been able to revert memory loss. POP may have a fuction in IP3 signaling and it may be a possible target of mood stabilizing substances. POP may also have a role in protein trafficking, sorting and secretion. The role of POP during ontogeny has not yet been resolved. POP enzyme activity and expression have shown fluctuation during development. Specially high enzyme activities have been measured in the brain during early development. Reduced neuronal proliferation and differentation in presence of POP inhibitor have been reported. Nuclear POP has been observed in proliferating peripheral tissues and in cell cultures at the early stage of development. Also, POP coding mRNA is abundantly expressed during brain ontogeny and the highest levels of expression are associated with proliferative germinal matrices. This observation indicates a special role for POP in the regulation of neurogenesis during development. For the experimental part, the study was undertaken to investigate the expression and distribution of POP protein and enzymatic activity of POP in developing rat brain (from embryonic day 14 to post natal day 7) using immunohistochemistry, POP enzyme activity measurements and western blot-analysis. The aim was also to find in vivo confirmation of the nuclear colocalization of POP during early brain ontogeny. For immunohistochemistry, cryosections from the brains of the fetuses/rats were made and stained using specific antibody for POP and fluorescent markers for POP and nuclei. The enzyme activity assay was based on the fluorescence of 7- amino-4-methylcoumarin (AMC) generated from the fluorogenic substrate succinyl-glycyl-prolyl-7-amino-4-methylcoumarin (Suc-Gly-Pro-AMC) by POP. The amounts of POP protein and the specifity of POP antibody in rat embryos was confirmed by western blot analysis. We observed that enzymatic activity of POP is highest at embryonic day 18 while the protein amounts reach their peak at birth. POP was widely present throughout the developmental stages from embryonic day 14 to parturition day, although the POP-immunoreactivity varied abundantly. At embryonic days 14 and 18 notably amounts of POP was distributed at proliferative germinal zones. Furthermore, POP was located in the nucleus early in the development but is transferred to cytosol before birth. At P0 and P7 the POP-immunoreactivity was also widely observed, but the amount of POP was notably reduced at P7. POP was present in cytosol and in intercellular space, but no nuclear POP was observed. These findings support the idea of POP being involved in specific brain functions, such as neuronal proliferation and differentation. Our results in vivo confirm the previous cell culture results supporting the role of POP in neurogenesis. Moreover, an inconsistency of POP protein amounts and enzymatic activity late in the development suggests a strong regulation of POP activity and a possible non-hydrolytic role at that stage.

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The optimal design of a multiproduct batch chemical plant is formulated as a multiobjective optimization problem, and the resulting constrained mixed-integer nonlinear program (MINLP) is solved by the nondominated sorting genetic algorithm approach (NSGA-II). By putting bounds on the objective function values, the constrained MINLP problem can be solved efficiently by NSGA-II to generate a set of feasible nondominated solutions in the range desired by the decision-maker in a single run of the algorithm. The evolution of the entire set of nondominated solutions helps the decision-maker to make a better choice of the appropriate design from among several alternatives. The large set of solutions also provides a rich source of excellent initial guesses for solution of the same problem by alternative approaches to achieve any specific target for the objective functions

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The max-coloring problem is to compute a legal coloring of the vertices of a graph G = (V, E) with a non-negative weight function w on V such that Sigma(k)(i=1) max(v epsilon Ci) w(v(i)) is minimized, where C-1, ... , C-k are the various color classes. Max-coloring general graphs is as hard as the classical vertex coloring problem, a special case where vertices have unit weight. In fact, in some cases it can even be harder: for example, no polynomial time algorithm is known for max-coloring trees. In this paper we consider the problem of max-coloring paths and its generalization, max-coloring abroad class of trees and show it can be solved in time O(vertical bar V vertical bar+time for sorting the vertex weights). When vertex weights belong to R, we show a matching lower bound of Omega(vertical bar V vertical bar log vertical bar V vertical bar) in the algebraic computation tree model.

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Irritable bowel syndrome (IBS) is a common multifactorial functional intestinal disorder, the pathogenesis of which is not completely understood. Increasing scientific evidence suggests that microbes are involved in the onset and maintenance of IBS symptoms. The microbiota of the human gastrointestinal (GI) tract constitutes a massive and complex ecosystem consisting mainly of obligate anaerobic microorganisms making the use of culture-based methods demanding and prone to misinterpretation. To overcome these drawbacks, an extensive panel of species- and group-specific assays for an accurate quantification of bacteria from fecal samples with real-time PCR was developed, optimized, and validated. As a result, the target bacteria were detectable at a minimum concentration range of approximately 10 000 bacterial genomes per gram of fecal sample, which corresponds to the sensitivity to detect 0.000001% subpopulations of the total fecal microbiota. The real-time PCR panel covering both commensal and pathogenic microorganisms was assessed to compare the intestinal microbiota of patients suffering from IBS with a healthy control group devoid of GI symptoms. Both the IBS and control groups showed considerable individual variation in gut microbiota composition. Sorting of the IBS patients according to the symptom subtypes (diarrhea, constipation, and alternating predominant type) revealed that lower amounts of Lactobacillus spp. were present in the samples of diarrhea predominant IBS patients, whereas constipation predominant IBS patients carried increased amounts of Veillonella spp. In the screening of intestinal pathogens, 17% of IBS samples tested positive for Staphylococcus aureus, whereas no positive cases were discovered among healthy controls. Furthermore, the methodology was applied to monitor the effects of a multispecies probiotic supplementation on GI microbiota of IBS sufferers. In the placebo-controlled double-blind probiotic intervention trial of IBS patients, each supplemented probiotic strain was detected in fecal samples. Intestinal microbiota remained stable during the trial, except for Bifidobacterium spp., which increased in the placebo group and decreased in the probiotic group. The combination of assays developed and applied in this thesis has an overall coverage of 300-400 known bacterial species, along with the number of yet unknown phylotypes. Hence, it provides good means for studying the intestinal microbiota, irrespective of the intestinal condition and health status. In particular, it allows screening and identification of microbes putatively associated with IBS. The alterations in the gut microbiota discovered here support the hypothesis that microbes are likely to contribute to the pathophysiology of IBS. The central question is whether the microbiota changes described represent the cause for, rather than the effect of, disturbed gut physiology. Therefore, more studies are needed to determine the role and importance of individual microbial species or groups in IBS. In addition, it is essential that the microbial alterations observed in this study will be confirmed using a larger set of IBS samples of different subtypes, preferably from various geographical locations.

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Modern-day economics is increasingly biased towards believing that institutions matter for growth, an argument that has been further enforced by the recent economic crisis. There is also a wide consensus on what these growth-promoting institutions should look like, and countries are periodically ranked depending on how their institutional structure compares with the best-practice institutions, mostly in place in the developing world. In this paper, it is argued that ”non-desirable” or “second-best” institutions can be beneficial for fostering investment and thus providing a starting point for sustained growth, and that what matters is the appropriateness of institutions to the economy’s distance to the frontier or current phase of development. Anecdotal evidence from Japan and South-Korea is used as a motivation for studying the subject and a model is presented to describe this phenomenon. In the model, the rigidity or non-rigidity of the institutions is described by entrepreneurial selection. It is assumed that entrepreneurs are the ones taking part in the imitation and innovation of technologies, and that decisions on whether or not their projects are refinanced comes from capitalists. The capitalists in turn have no entrepreneurial skills and act merely as financers of projects. The model has two periods, and two kinds of entrepreneurs: those with high skills and those with low skills. The society’s choice of whether an imitation or innovation – based strategy is chosen is modeled as the trade-off between refinancing a low-skill entrepreneur or investing in the selection of the entrepreneurs resulting in a larger fraction of high-skill entrepreneurs with the ability to innovate but less total investment. Finally, a real-world example from India is presented as an initial attempt to test the theory. The data from the example is not included in this paper. It is noted that the model may be lacking explanatory power due to difficulties in testing the predictions, but that this should not be seen as a reason to disregard the theory – the solution might lie in developing better tools, not better just better theories. The conclusion presented is that institutions do matter. There is no one-size-fits-all-solution when it comes to institutional arrangements in different countries, and developing countries should be given space to develop their own institutional structures that cater to their specific needs.

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Aim of this master's thesis paper for consumer economics, is to research gambling advertisements in Finland over a period of 35 years, from 1970 to 2006. Veikkaus Oy (later Veikkaus), was founded in 1940, as one of the three licensed gambling organizations in Finland. Material for the current research comprised 1494 advertisements published by Veikkaus in newspapers and magazines at that time. Veikkaus has the exclusive licence to organize lotto games, sport games, instant games and other draw games in Finland. The other two operators, The Finnish Slot Machine Association RAY and Fintoto (on-track horse betting), were not included in the current analysis. This study has been completed according to research contract and grand by the Finnish Foundation for Gaming Research (Pelitoiminnan tutkimussäätiö). In general, advertisements reflect surrounding culture and time, and their message is built on stratified meanings, symbols and codes. Advertising draws the viewer's attention, introduces the advertised subject, and finally, affects the individual's consumption habits. However, advertisements not only work on individual level, but also influence public perception of the advertised product. Firstly, in order to assess gambling as a phenomenon, this paper discusses gambling as consumer behaviour, and also reviews history of gambling in Finland. Winning is a major feature of gambling, and dreaming about positive change of life is a centre of most gambling ads. However, perceived excitement through risk of losing can also be featured in gambling ads. Secondly, this study utilizes Veikkaus’ large advertising archives, were advertising data is analyzed by content analysis and the semiotic analysis. Two methods have been employed to support analyzing outcome in a synergistic way. Content analysis helps to achieve accuracy and comprehensiveness. Semiotic analysis allows deeper and more sensitive analysis to emerged findings and occurrences. It is important to understand the advertised product, as advertising is bound to the culture and time. Hence, to analyze advertising, it is important to understand the environment where the ads appear. Content analysis of Veikkaus data discovered the main gambling and principal advertisement style for each.period. Interestingly, nearly half of Veikkaus’ advertisements promoted topic other than “just winning the bet”. Games of change, like Lotto, typically advertised indirectly represented dreams about winning. In the category of skill gambling, features were represented as investment, and the excitement of sporting expertise was emphasized. In addition, there were a number of gambling ads that emphasize social responsibility of Veikkaus as a government guided organization. Semiotic methods were employed to further elaborate on findings of content analysis. Dreaming in the advertisements was represented by the product of symbols, (e.g. cars and homes) that were found to have significance connection with each other. Thus, advertising represents change of life obtained by the winning. Interestingly, gambling ads promoting jackpots were often representing religious symbolisms. Ads promoting social responsibility were found to be the most common during economical depression of the 90’s. Deeper analysis showed that at that time, advertisements frequently represented depression-related meanings, such as unemployment and bank loans. Skill gaming ads were often represented by sports expertise – late 90’s, their number started sky rocketing, and continued increasing until 2006 (when this study ended). One may conclude that sport betting draws its meanings from the relevant consumer culture, and from the rules and features of the betted sport.

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Objectives. In primary education the pupils form a basis for their writing skills. By assessing pupils writing skills the teacher gathers information about the development of their skills and notices possible learning disabilities. The assessment of writing skills requires both knowledge of different evaluation methods and the phonological system in Finnish language. The purpose of this study is to analyze the pupils writing skills and different assessment methods that help the teacher in writing evaluation. The pupils writing skills are viewed from spelling, composing and writing motivation s point of view. Methods. The research material consists of dictation exercises, written stories and writing motivation self-assessments of 19 pupils. Dictation exercises measured the spelling skills of pupils and they were written in the spring of the first grade and the autumn of the second grade. Dictation exercises were analyzed with two different methods: mistake analysis and word-structure analysis. Information of pupils spelling skills development was gathered by comparing their performance in autumn s dictation exercise to spring s dictation. Composing skills were measured with stories that the pupils wrote. Both the stories and the writing motivation s self-assessment were made in the autumn of the second grade. Composing skills were analyzed according to assessment criteria formed for this study. Results. The spelling skill of most of the pupils had developed from the first grade s spring to the second grade s autumn. The spelling skills of half of the pupils (N=9) had improved significantly. The composing skills of the pupils varied largely. Strongest part of the pupils composing skill was following instructions and the weakest part was the use of versatile vocabulary and clause structures. The girls outdid the boys in all segments of their composing skills. For most pupils their spelling skill reflected their composing skill: good spellers were also good story writers. The relation between writing motivation and general writing skill was not this simple: some pupils (N=5) writing motivation was much higher than what would have been expected based on their writing skills.

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The aged people in the target group of my study belong to generation, which has experienced the shift from agricultural society via industrial society up to the society which has been described as information society. They have grown up concurrently with the technological development, but during the recent years the technological development has accelerated. One can say that the older the target study group has come the more information technological skills they need to possess to be equal actors in our society. However, especially in case of aged people the learning and maintaining of skills in information technology has mainly been left dependent on their personal motivation. The purpose of this report is to study the use of computers in the life of the aged people. The report studies the will and ability of the aged people to learn the skill of using computers, and the new possibilities which this brings into their lives. The study questions are the following: 1) Why the aged people start to use computers? 2) How the aged people benefit information technology in their own life? 3) How computers have extended the environment of the aged people? 4) What kind of problems the aged people have experienced in use of computers? The research material consists of group interviews and individual interviews (total of 23 people). The interview material has been collected among the participants on information technology courses of the Senior University of Helsinki University during years 2004-2005. The research method used is theme interviewing. In addition, the material of opinions about information technology of people born in decades of 1920 and 1930, gathered as part of the Ikihyvä Päijät-Häme 2002 -research has been used. On basis of this research one can say that the aged people do have motivation to study the use of computers, although many interviewees commented that they also have met problems in use of computers. The motivation has grown also because the fear that without the skills to use computers they could drift into outsiders of the society, whereas instead as skilled computer users they felt to be equal citizens compared with the younger age groups, and that they can maintain their independence and autonomy. Especially, the independent use of banking routines over the Internet and use of emails seem to give them a position as modern actors. Many interview statements also underline that computers will bring both joy and benefit to the users. Studying the use of computers is a new and interesting hobby, which can fill the hole left in the life after leaving the working life. Using skills of text processing and processing of pictures one can, for example, record the traditional knowledge of the family and ancestry to the younger generations, and write articles or even books on the professional area of ones own. Single people emphasize that computers can even act as companionship substitutes. One can use Internet for virtual traveling, which provides a new dimension in use of computers. Internet can also be used to maintain family relationships, especially between grandparents and remote grandchildren. Typical problems in use of computers appeared to be that reaching the right professional helpdesk advisers of the service providers is difficult and requires lots of time and patience. However, the interviewees were not willing to give up their computers, because they had already used to these. Keywords: digital divide, aging, Internet, usability, motivation, information technology, information society.

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This paper may be considered as a sequel to one of our earlier works pertaining to the development of an upwind algorithm for meshless solvers. While the earlier work dealt with the development of an inviscid solution procedure, the present work focuses on its extension to viscous flows. A robust viscous discretization strategy is chosen based on positivity of a discrete Laplacian. This work projects meshless solver as a viable cartesian grid methodology. The point distribution required for the meshless solver is obtained from a hybrid cartesian gridding strategy. Particularly considering the importance of an hybrid cartesian mesh for RANS computations, the difficulties encountered in a conventional least squares based discretization strategy are highlighted. In this context, importance of discretization strategies which exploit the local structure in the grid is presented, along with a suitable point sorting strategy. Of particular interest is the proposed discretization strategies (both inviscid and viscous) within the structured grid block; a rotated update for the inviscid part and a Green-Gauss procedure based positive update for the viscous part. Both these procedures conveniently avoid the ill-conditioning associated with a conventional least squares procedure in the critical region of structured grid block. The robustness and accuracy of such a strategy is demonstrated on a number of standard test cases including a case of a multi-element airfoil. The computational efficiency of the proposed meshless solver is also demonstrated. (C) 2010 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

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Raportissa on arvioitu ilmastonmuutoksen vaikutusta Suomen maaperän talviaikaiseen jäätymiseen lämpösummien perusteella. Laskelmat kuvaavat roudan paksuutta nimenomaisesti lumettomilla alueilla, esimerkiksi teillä, joilta satanut lumi aurataan pois. Luonnossa lämpöä eristävän lumipeitteen alla routaa on ohuemmin kuin tällaisilla lumettomilla alueilla. Toisaalta luonnollisessa ympäristössä paikalliset erot korostuvat johtuen mm. maalajeista ja kasvillisuudesta. Roudan paksuudet laskettiin ensin perusjakson 1971–2000 ilmasto-oloissa talviaikaisten säähavaintotietoihin pohjautuvien lämpötilojen perusteella. Sen jälkeen laskelmat toistettiin kolmelle tulevalle ajanjaksolle (2010–2039, 2040–2069 ja 2070–2099) kohottamalla lämpötiloja ilmastonmuutosmallien ennustamalla tavalla. Laskelman pohjana käytettiin 19 ilmastomallin A1B-skenaarioajojen keskimäärin simuloimaa lämpötilan muutosta. Tulosten herkkyyden arvioimiseksi joitakin laskelmia tehtiin myös tätä selvästi heikompaa ja voimakkaampaa lämpenemisarviota käyttäen. A1B-skenaarion mukaisen lämpötilan nousun toteutuessa nykyisiä mallituloksia vastaavasti routakerros ohenee sadan vuoden aikana Pohjois-Suomessa 30–40 %, suuressa osassa maan keski- ja eteläosissa 50–70 %. Jo lähivuosikymmeninä roudan ennustetaan ohentuvan 10–30 %, saaristossa enemmän. Mikäli lämpeneminen toteutuisi voimakkaimman tarkastellun vaihtoehdon mukaisesti, roudan syvyys pienenisi tätäkin enemmän. Roudan paksuuden vuosienvälistä vaihtelua ja sen muuttumista tulevaisuudessa pyrittiin myös arvioimaan. Leutoina talvina routa ohenee enemmän kuin normaaleina tai ankarina pakkastalvina. Päivittäistä sään vaihtelua simuloineen säägeneraattorin tuottamassa aineistoissa esiintyi kuitenkin liian vähän hyvin alhaisia ja hyvin korkeita lämpötiloja. Siksi näitten lämpötilatietojen pohjalta laskettu roudan paksuuskin ilmeisesti vaihtelee liian vähän vuodesta toiseen. Kelirikkotilanteita voi esiintyä myös kesken routakauden, jos useamman päivän suojasää ja samanaikainen runsas vesisade pääsevät sulattamaan maata. Tällaiset routakauden aikana sattuvat säätilat näyttävätkin yleistyvän lähivuosikymmeninä. Vuosisadan loppua kohti ne sen sijaan maan eteläosissa jälleen vähenevät, koska routakausi lyhenee oleellisesti. Tulevia vuosikymmeniä koskevien ilmastonmuutosennusteiden ohella routaa ja kelirikon esiintymistä on periaatteessa mahdollista ennustaa myös lähiaikojen sääennusteita hyödyntäen. Pitkät, viikkojen tai kuukausien mittaiset sääennusteet eivät tosin ole ainakaan vielä erityisen luotettavia, mutta myös lyhyemmistä ennusteista voisi olla hyötyä mm. tienpitoa suunniteltaessa.