Australian and New Zealand practice in intensive care (ANZPIC II): Predictors of physician confidence to diagnose pneumonia and determine illness severity in ventilated patients

The manner in which elements of clinical history, physical examination and investigations influence subjectively assessed illness severity and outcome prediction is poorly understood. This study investigates the relationship between clinician and objectively assessed illness severity and the factors influencing clinician's diagnostic confidence and illness severity rating for ventilated patients with suspected pneumonia in the intensive care unit (ICU). A prospective study of fourteen ICUs included all ventilated admissions with a clinical diagnosis of pneumonia. Data collection included pneumonia type - community-acquired (CAP), hospital-acquired (HAP) and ventilator-associated (VAP), clinician determined illness severity (CDIS), diagnostic methods, clinical diagnostic confidence (CDC), microbiological isolates and antibiotic use. For 476 episodes of pneumonia (48% CAP, 24% HAP, 28% VAP), CDC was greatest for CAP (64% CAP, 50% HAP and 49% VAP, P < 0.01) or when pneumonia was considered life-threatening (84% high CDC, 13% medium CDC and 3% low CDC, P < 0.001). Life-threatening pneumonia was predicted by worsening gas exchange (OR 4.8, CI 95% 2.3-10.2, P < 0.001), clinical signs of consolidation (OR 2.0, CI 95% 1.2-3.2, P < 0.01) and the Sepsis-Related Organ Failure Assessment (SOFA) Score (OR 1.1, CI 95% 1.1-1.2, P < 0.001). Diagnostic confidence increased with CDIS (OR 163, CI 95% 8.4-31.4, P < 0.001), definite pathogen isolation (OR 3.3, CI 95% 2.0-5.6) and clinical signs of consolidation (OR 2.1, CI 95% 1.3-3.3, P = 0.001). Although the CDIS, SOFA Score and the Simplified Acute Physiologic Score (SAPS II) were all associated with mortality, the SAPS II Score was the best predictor of mortality (P = 0.02). Diagnostic confidence for pneumonia is moderate but increases with more classical presentations. A small set of clinical parameters influence subjective assessment. Objective assessment using SAPS II Scoring is a better predictor of mortality.

Vaccine trial as ���probe��� to define the burden of pneumococcal pneumonia disease [Comment]

In today's Lancet, Felicity Cutts and colleagues present their findings on the randomised double-blind placebo controlled trial on the efficacy of a nine-valent pneumococcal conjugate-vaccine (9PCV) against radiologically confirmed pneumonia and invasive pneumococcal disease in children immunised before 12 months of age in The Gambia. The study site is a rural African setting with high child-mortality, a low prevalence of HIV-1 infection in pregnant mothers, and with endemic malaria. The authors report a vaccine efficacy of 37% (95% CI 27���45%) against first-episodes of radiological pneumonia in a per-protocol analysis. Intention-to-treat analysis showed similar results. The investigators also found that the vaccine could significantly reduce the incidence of vaccine-type invasive pneumococcal disease by 77%, by 50% for all-serotype invasive pneumococcal disease, by 15% for all-cause health-facility admissions, and by 16% for overall child mortality.