The year-long unprecedented European heat and drought of 1540 – a worst case

The heat waves of 2003 in Western Europe and 2010 in Russia, commonly labelled as rare climatic anomalies outside of previous experience, are often taken as harbingers of more frequent extremes in the global warming-influenced future. However, a recent reconstruction of spring–summer temperatures for WE resulted in the likelihood of significantly higher temperatures in 1540. In order to check the plausibility of this result we investigated the severity of the 1540 drought by putting forward the argument of the known soil desiccation-temperature feedback. Based on more than 300 first-hand documentary weather report sources originating from an area of 2 to 3 million km2, we show that Europe was affected by an unprecedented 11-month-long Megadrought. The estimated number of precipitation days and precipitation amount for Central and Western Europe in 1540 is significantly lower than the 100-year minima of the instrumental measurement period for spring, summer and autumn. This result is supported by independent documentary evidence about extremely low river flows and Europe-wide wild-, forest- and settlement fires. We found that an event of this severity cannot be simulated by state-of-the-art climate models.

Barents and Kara Seas oceanographic data base (BarKode)

Oceanographic data collected by ocean research organisations in Russia, the USA, the United Kingdom, Germany, Norway, and Poland for the Barents, Kara and White Seas region are presented in this atlas. Recently declassified naval data from Norway, the USA, and the UK are also included. More than 1,000,000 oceanographic stations containing temperature and/or sea-water salinity data were originally selected. After correcting errors and eliminating duplicates, data from 206,300 checked stations were placed on CD-ROM, together with many figures describing the characteristics of both the single-input and combined data set. In addition, temperature and salinity measurements were interpolated to the following standard horizons: 0, 25, 50, 100, 150, 200, 250, 300 m, and bottom. This atlas covers the 100-year period 1898 to 1998 and is, to date, the most complete oceanographic data collection for these Arctic shelf seas. This data set is complemented by more than 9,000 measurements of sea surface temperature, which were recently digitized from ships' logbooks. They cover the same geographical area within the time period 1867-1912.

Secchi disk data collection for the North Sea and Baltic Sea

This paper presents the results of a Secchi depth data mining study for the North Sea - Baltic Sea region. 40,829 measurements of Secchi depth were compiled from the area as a result of this study. 4.3% of the observations were found in the international data centers [ICES Oceanographic Data Center in Denmark and the World Ocean Data Center A (WDC-A) in the USA], while 95.7% of the data was provided by individuals and ocean research institutions from the surrounding North Sea and Baltic Sea countries. Inquiries made at the World Ocean Data Center B (WDC-B) in Russia suggested that there could be significant additional holdings in that archive but, unfortunately, no data could be made available. The earliest Secchi depth measurement retrieved in this study dates back to 1902 for the Baltic Sea, while the bulk of the measurements were gathered after 1970. The spatial distribution of Secchi depth measurements in the North Sea is very uneven with surprisingly large sampling gaps in the Western North Sea. Quarterly and annual Secchi depth maps with a 0.5° x 0.5° spatial resolution are provided for the transition area between the North Sea and the Baltic Sea (4°E-16°E, 53°N-60°N).

湾岸およびインド洋地域の安全保障と日本

In this paper, first we look back at the activities of the JMSDF in the Indian Ocean and the Gulf for the past 10-20 years from the view-point of contributions to security in the regions, and Japan's defence and diplomatic policies. In addition we would like to consider the situation that Japan has currently been placed in, or the primary factors of the change of power balance caused by China's foreign expansion and US gradual troop reductions, and economic conditions and energy supply problems after the earthquake disaster, as well as the returning of the LDP Administration. Each of these affects Japan's defence and diplomatic policies, and Japanese approach to Gulf countries is to be precisely understood in this context. For Japan, the importance of relationships with Gulf countries will surely increase in the foreseeable future. However the immediate addition of the JMSDF's force in the Indian Ocean and the Gulf Region is difficult. So Japan's role in regional security will probably be depending on the licensing of technology to India and Gulf countries, plus the construction of collaborative systems devoted to the training and support of highly proficient personnel. China will have a competitive relationship with Japan over access to the energy supply sources and the markets in Gulf countries, and it will be necessary to employ such systems for the purpose of international trust building and preventing of any free-ride.

Abstraction carrying code and resource-awareness

Proof-Carrying Code (PCC) is a general approach to mobile code safety in which the code supplier augments the program with a certifícate (or proof). The intended benefit is that the program consumer can locally validate the certifícate w.r.t. the "untrusted" program by means of a certifícate checker—a process which should be much simpler, eíñcient, and automatic than generating the original proof. Abstraction Carrying Code (ACC) is an enabling technology for PCC in which an abstract model of the program plays the role of certifícate. The generation of the certifícate, Le., the abstraction, is automatically carried out by an abstract interpretation-based analysis engine, which is parametric w.r.t. different abstract domains. While the analyzer on the producer side typically has to compute a semantic fixpoint in a complex, iterative process, on the receiver it is only necessary to check that the certifícate is indeed a fixpoint of the abstract semantics equations representing the program. This is done in a single pass in a much more efficient process. ACC addresses the fundamental issues in PCC and opens the door to the applicability of the large body of frameworks and domains based on abstract interpretation as enabling technology for PCC. We present an overview of ACC and we describe in a tutorial fashion an application to the problem of resource-aware security in mobile code. Essentially the information computed by a cost analyzer is used to genérate cost certificates which attest a safe and efficient use of a mobile code. A receiving side can then reject code which brings cost certificates (which it cannot validate or) which have too large cost requirements in terms of computing resources (in time and/or space) and accept mobile code which meets the established requirements.

Contribución a la automatización de sistemas de respuesta frente a intrusiones mediante ontologías

La seguridad en redes informáticas es un área que ha sido ampliamente estudiada y objeto de una extensa investigación en los últimos años. Debido al continuo incremento en la complejidad y sofisticación de los ataques informáticos, el aumento de su velocidad de difusión, y la lentitud de reacción frente a las intrusiones existente en la actualidad, se hace patente la necesidad de mecanismos de detección y respuesta a intrusiones, que detecten y además sean capaces de bloquear el ataque, y mitiguen su impacto en la medida de lo posible. Los Sistemas de Detección de Intrusiones o IDSs son tecnologías bastante maduras cuyo objetivo es detectar cualquier comportamiento malicioso que ocurra en las redes. Estos sistemas han evolucionado rápidamente en los últimos años convirtiéndose en herramientas muy maduras basadas en diferentes paradigmas, que mejoran su capacidad de detección y le otorgan un alto nivel de fiabilidad. Por otra parte, un Sistema de Respuesta a Intrusiones (IRS) es un componente de seguridad que puede estar presente en la arquitectura de una red informática, capaz de reaccionar frente a los incidentes detectados por un Sistema de Detección de Intrusiones (IDS). Por desgracia, esta tecnología no ha evolucionado al mismo ritmo que los IDSs, y la reacción contra los ataques detectados es lenta y básica, y los sistemas presentan problemas para ejecutar respuestas de forma automática. Esta tesis doctoral trata de hacer frente al problema existente en la reacción automática frente a intrusiones, mediante el uso de ontologías, lenguajes formales de especificación de comportamiento y razonadores semánticos como base de la arquitectura del sistema de un sistema de respuesta automática frente a intrusiones o AIRS. El objetivo de la aproximación es aprovechar las ventajas de las ontologías en entornos heterogéneos, además de su capacidad para especificar comportamiento sobre los objetos que representan los elementos del dominio modelado. Esta capacidad para especificar comportamiento será de gran utilidad para que el AIRS infiera la respuesta óptima frente a una intrusión en el menor tiempo posible. Abstract Security in networks is an area that has been widely studied and has been the focus of extensive research over the past few years. The number of security events is increasing, and they are each time more sophisticated, and quickly spread, and slow reaction against intrusions, there is a need for intrusion detection and response systems to dynamically adapt so as to better detect and respond to attacks in order to mitigate them or reduce their impact. Intrusion Detection Systems (IDSs) are mature technologies whose aim is detecting malicious behavior in the networks. These systems have quickly evolved and there are now very mature tools based on different paradigms (statistic anomaly-based, signature-based and hybrids) with a high level of reliability. On the other hand, Intrusion Response System (IRS) is a security technology able to react against the intrusions detected by IDS. Unfortunately, the state of the art in IRSs is not as mature as with IDSs. The reaction against intrusions is slow and simple, and these systems have difficulty detecting intrusions in real time and triggering automated responses. This dissertation is to address the existing problem in automated reactions against intrusions using ontologies, formal behaviour languages and semantic reasoners as the basis of the architecture of an automated intrusion response systems or AIRS. The aim is to take advantage of ontologies in heterogeneous environments, in addition to its ability to specify behavior of objects representing the elements of the modeling domain. This ability to specify behavior will be useful for the AIRS in the inference process of the optimum response against an intrusion, as quickly as possible.