Future of earthquake early warning : quantifying uncertainty and making fast automated decisions for applications

Earthquake early warning (EEW) systems have been rapidly developing over the past decade. Japan Meteorological Agency (JMA) has an EEW system that was operating during the 2011 M9 Tohoku earthquake in Japan, and this increased the awareness of EEW systems around the world. While longer-time earthquake prediction still faces many challenges to be practical, the availability of shorter-time EEW opens up a new door for earthquake loss mitigation. After an earthquake fault begins rupturing, an EEW system utilizes the first few seconds of recorded seismic waveform data to quickly predict the hypocenter location, magnitude, origin time and the expected shaking intensity level around the region. This early warning information is broadcast to different sites before the strong shaking arrives. The warning lead time of such a system is short, typically a few seconds to a minute or so, and the information is uncertain. These factors limit human intervention to activate mitigation actions and this must be addressed for engineering applications of EEW. This study applies a Bayesian probabilistic approach along with machine learning techniques and decision theories from economics to improve different aspects of EEW operation, including extending it to engineering applications.

Existing EEW systems are often based on a deterministic approach. Often, they assume that only a single event occurs within a short period of time, which led to many false alarms after the Tohoku earthquake in Japan. This study develops a probability-based EEW algorithm based on an existing deterministic model to extend the EEW system to the case of concurrent events, which are often observed during the aftershock sequence after a large earthquake.

To overcome the challenge of uncertain information and short lead time of EEW, this study also develops an earthquake probability-based automated decision-making (ePAD) framework to make robust decision for EEW mitigation applications. A cost-benefit model that can capture the uncertainties in EEW information and the decision process is used. This approach is called the Performance-Based Earthquake Early Warning, which is based on the PEER Performance-Based Earthquake Engineering method. Use of surrogate models is suggested to improve computational efficiency. Also, new models are proposed to add the influence of lead time into the cost-benefit analysis. For example, a value of information model is used to quantify the potential value of delaying the activation of a mitigation action for a possible reduction of the uncertainty of EEW information in the next update. Two practical examples, evacuation alert and elevator control, are studied to illustrate the ePAD framework. Potential advanced EEW applications, such as the case of multiple-action decisions and the synergy of EEW and structural health monitoring systems, are also discussed.

Iridium and rhodium analogues of the Shilov cycle catalyst; and the investigation and applications of the Reduction-Coupled Oxo Activation (ROA) mechanistic motif towards alkane upgrading

This dissertation will cover several disparate topics, with the overarching theme centering on the investigation of organometallic C-H activation and hydrocarbon transformation and upgrading. Chapters 2 and 3 discuss iridium and rhodium analogues of the Shilov cycle catalyst for methane to methanol oxidation, and Chapter 4 on the recently discovered ROA mechanistic motif in catalysts for various alkane partial oxidation reactions. In addition, Chapter 5 discusses the mechanism of nickel pyridine bisoxazoline Negishi catalysts for asymmetric and stereoconvergent C-C coupling, and the appendices discuss smaller projects on rhodium H/D exchange catalysts and DFT method benchmarking.

ICT Applications in the Research for Environmental Sustainability

26 p.

Multi-model inference ranking and applications to physics at the Large Hadron Collider

In the measurement of the Higgs Boson decaying into two photons the parametrization of an appropriate background model is essential for fitting the Higgs signal mass peak over a continuous background. This diphoton background modeling is crucial in the statistical process of calculating exclusion limits and the significance of observations in comparison to a background-only hypothesis. It is therefore ideal to obtain knowledge of the physical shape for the background mass distribution as the use of an improper function can lead to biases in the observed limits. Using an Information-Theoretic (I-T) approach for valid inference we apply Akaike Information Criterion (AIC) as a measure of the separation for a fitting model from the data. We then implement a multi-model inference ranking method to build a fit-model that closest represents the Standard Model background in 2013 diphoton data recorded by the Compact Muon Solenoid (CMS) experiment at the Large Hadron Collider (LHC). Potential applications and extensions of this model-selection technique are discussed with reference to CMS detector performance measurements as well as in potential physics analyses at future detectors.

I. Reactively sputtered Ti-Si-N thin films for diffusion barrier applications. II. Oxidation, diffusion and crystallization of an amorphous Zr_(60)Al_(15)Ni_(25) alloy.

Films of Ti-Si-N obtained by reactively sputtering a TiSi_2, a Ti_5Si_3, or a Ti_3Si target are either amorphous or nanocrystalline in structure. The atomic density of some films exceeds 10^23 at./cm^3. The room-temperature resistivity of the films increases with the Si and the N content. A thermal treatment in vacuum at 700 °C for 1 hour decreases the resistivity of the Ti-rich films deposited from the Ti_5Si_3 or the Ti_3Si target, but increases that of the Si-rich films deposited from the TiSi_2 target when the nitrogen content exceeds about 30 at. %.

Ti_(34)Si_(23)N_(43) deposited from the Ti_5Si_3 target is an excellent diffusion barrier between Si and Cu. This film is a mixture of nanocrystalline TiN and amorphous SiN_x. Resistivity measurement from 80 K to 1073 K reveals that this film is electrically semiconductor-like as-deposited, and that it becomes metal-like after an hour annealing at 1000 °C in vacuum. A film of about 100 nm thick, with a resistivity of 660 µΩcm, maintains the stability of Si n+p shallow junction diodes with a 400 nm Cu overlayer up to 850 °C upon 30 min vacuum annealing. When used between Si and Al, the maximum temperature of stability is 550 °C for 30 min. This film can be etched in a CF_4/O_2 plasma.

The amorphous ternary metallic alloy Zr_(60)Al_(15)Ni_(25) was oxidized in dry oxygen in the temperature range 310 °C to 410 °C. Rutherford backscattering and cross-sectional transmission electron microscopy studies suggest that during this treatment an amorphous layer of zirconium-aluminum-oxide is formed at the surface. Nickel is depleted from the oxide and enriched in the amorphous alloy below the oxide/alloy interface. The oxide layer thickness grows parabolically with the annealing duration, with a transport constant of 2.8x10^(-5) m^2/s x exp(-1.7 eV/kT). The oxidation rate is most likely controlled by the Ni diffusion in the amorphous alloy.

At later stages of the oxidation process, precipitates of nanocrystalline ZrO_2 appear in the oxide near the interface. Finally, two intermetallic phases nucleate and grow simultaneously in the alloy, one at the interface and one within the alloy.

High pressure states in condensed matter: I. High pressure behavior of the iron-sulphur system with applications to the earth's core. II. Empirical equation of state for organic compounds at high pressures

Part I:

The earth's core is generally accepted to be composed primarily of iron, with an admixture of other elements. Because the outer core is observed not to transmit shear waves at seismic frequencies, it is known to be liquid or primarily liquid. A new equation of state is presented for liquid iron, in the form of parameters for the 4th order Birch-Murnaghan and Mie-Grüneisen equations of state. The parameters were constrained by a set of values for numerous properties compiled from the literature. A detailed theoretical model is used to constrain the P-T behavior of the heat capacity, based on recent advances in the understanding of the interatomic potentials for transition metals. At the reference pressure of 10⁵ Pa and temperature of 1811 K (the normal melting point of Fe), the parameters are: ρ = 7037 kg/m³, K_S0 = 110 GPa, K_S' = 4.53, K_S" = -.0337 GPa-1, and γ = 2.8, with γ α ρ^-1.17. Comparison of the properties predicted by this model with the earth model PREM indicates that the outer core is 8 to 10 % less dense than pure liquid Fe at the same conditions. The inner core is also found to be 3 to 5% less dense than pure liquid Fe, supporting the idea of a partially molten inner core. The density deficit of the outer core implies that the elements dissolved in the liquid Fe are predominantly of lower atomic weight than Fe. Of the candidate light elements favored by researchers, only sulfur readily dissolves into Fe at low pressure, which means that this element was almost certainly concentrated in the core at early times. New melting data are presented for FeS and FeS₂ which indicate that the FeS₂ is the S-hearing liquidus solid phase at inner core pressures. Consideration of the requirement that the inner core boundary be observable by seismological means and the freezing behavior of solutions leads to the possibility that the outer core may contain a significant fraction of solid material. It is found that convection in the outer core is not hindered if the solid particles are entrained in the fluid flow. This model for a core of Fe and S admits temperatures in the range 3450K to 4200K at the top of the core. An all liquid Fe-S outer core would require a temperature of about 4900 K at the top of the core.

Part II.

The abundance of uses for organic compounds in the modern world results in many applications in which these materials are subjected to high pressures. This leads to the desire to be able to describe the behavior of these materials under such conditions. Unfortunately, the number of compounds is much greater than the number of experimental data available for many of the important properties. In the past, one approach that has worked well is the calculation of appropriate properties by summing the contributions from the organic functional groups making up molecules of the compounds in question. A new set of group contributions for the molar volume, volume thermal expansivity, heat capacity, and the Rao function is presented for functional groups containing C, H, and O. This set is, in most cases, limited in application to low molecular liquids. A new technique for the calculation of the pressure derivative of the bulk modulus is also presented. Comparison with data indicates that the presented technique works very well for most low molecular hydrocarbon liquids and somewhat less well for oxygen-bearing compounds. A similar comparison of previous results for polymers indicates that the existing tabulations of group contributions for this class of materials is in need of revision. There is also evidence that the Rao function contributions for polymers and low molecular compounds are somewhat different.

Relativistic mean field theory: methods and applications

We develop a method for performing one-loop calculations in finite systems that is based on using the WKB approximation for the high energy states. This approximation allows us to absorb all the counterterms analytically and thereby avoids the need for extreme numerical precision that was required by previous methods. In addition, the local approximation makes this method well suited for self-consistent calculations. We then discuss the application of relativistic mean field methods to the atomic nucleus. Self-consistent, one loop calculations in the Walecka model are performed and the role of the vacuum in this model is analyzed. This model predicts that vacuum polarization effects are responsible for up to five percent of the local nucleon density. Within this framework the possible role of strangeness degrees of freedom is studied. We find that strangeness polarization can increase the kaon-nucleus scattering cross section by ten percent. By introducing a cutoff into the model, the dependence of the model on short-distance physics, where its validity is doubtful, is calculated. The model is very sensitive to cutoffs around one GeV.

Mechanism and applications of the photochemistry of Bis(η^5-cyclopentadienyl)titanacyclobutanes

The photochemically induced reductive elimination of cyclopropanes from bis(η⁵-cyclopentadienyl)titanacyclobutanes has been examined. Stereochemical labelling studies indicate that the cyclopropane is initially formed in a 6±1:1, ratio favoring retention of stereochemistry. The starting titanacyclobutane is isomerized during the course of the reaction. The isomerization of the starting material results from metal-carbon bond homolysis to yield a 1,4-biradical, which can either close to give the starting material or generate cyclopropane. The 1,4-biradical can be observed through a cyclopropyl carbinyl rearrangement employing 2-bis(η⁵- cyclopentadienyl)titana-5,5-dimethylbicyclo[2.1.0]pentane, to give the titanium alkylidene, 1-bis(η⁵-cyclopentadienyl)titana-3,3-dimethyl-1,4- pentadiene, which can be observed directly by NMR at low temperature.

The oxidation of titanacyclobutanes by chemical and electrochemical methods also yields cyclopropanes. Reduction of the metal center does not yield cyclopropanes. Depending on the oxidant, stereochemically labelled titanacyclobutanes yield cyclopropanes that are between 7:1 and 100:1 retention:isomerization. The fragmentation reaction resembles the photochemically induced reductive elimination. Both result from formal oxidation of a metal-carbon bond, which then results in very rapid formation of cyclopropane.

The titanocene generated photochemically reacts with a variety of substrates even at low temperature. Titanocene can be generated in a glass at 77 K. The titanocene can be trapped in noncoordinating solvents in high yield with bulky internal acetylenes to give monoacetylene adducts of titanocene. Less bulky acetylenes give the titanacyclopentadienes. The titanocene can be trapped with olefins to give less stable adducts, which appear by NMR analysis to be intermediate in structure between a titanacyclopropane and an η² olefin adduct of titanocene. Reaction of titanocene with butadiene gives a stable product, which appears to be the s-trans butadiene adduct of titanocene. It does not isomerize on heating. Titanocene reacts with epoxides to give titanocene-µ-oxo polymer and olefin. Stereochemically labelled epoxides and episulfides yield isomerized olefin upon deoxygenation by titanocene. The observations are rationalized as a result of a 1,4-biradical formed by stepwise insertion of titanocene into a carbon-oxygen bond.

Finite differences and a coupled analytic technique with applications to explosions and earthquakes

An analytic technique is developed that couples to finite difference calculations to extend the results to arbitrary distance. Finite differences and the analytic result, a boundary integral called two-dimensional Kirchhoff, are applied to simple models and three seismological problems dealing with data. The simple models include a thorough investigation of the seismologic effects of a deep continental basin. The first problem is explosions at Yucca Flat, in the Nevada test site. By modeling both near-field strong-motion records and teleseismic P-waves simultaneously, it is shown that scattered surface waves are responsible for teleseismic complexity. The second problem deals with explosions at Amchitka Island, Alaska. The near-field seismograms are investigated using a variety of complex structures and sources. The third problem involves regional seismograms of Imperial Valley, California earthquakes recorded at Pasadena, California. The data are shown to contain evidence of deterministic structure, but lack of more direct measurements of the structure and possible three-dimensional effects make two-dimensional modeling of these data difficult.

Applications of a Concise and General Strategy for the Syntheses of Transtaganolide and Basiliolide Natural Products

Herein are described the total syntheses of all members of the transtaganolide and basiliolide natural product family. Utilitzation of an Ireland–Claisen rearrangement/Diels–Alder cycloaddition cascade (ICR/DA) allowed for rapid assembly of the transtaganolide and basiliolide oxabicyclo[2.2.2]octane core. This methodology is general and was applicable to all members of the natural product family.

A brief introduction outlines all the synthetic progress previously disclosed by Lee, Dudley, and Johansson. This also includes the initial syntheses of transtaganolides C and D, as well as basiliolide B and epi-basiliolide B accomplished by Stoltz in 2011. Lastly, we discuss our racemic synthesis of basililide C and epi-basiliolide C, which utilized an ICR/DA cascade to constuct the oxabicyclo[2.2.2]octane core and formal [5+2] annulation to form the ketene-acetal containing 7-membered C-ring.

Next, we describe a strategy for an asymmetric ICR/DA cascade, by incorporation of a chiral silane directing group. This allowed for enantioselective construction of the C8 all-carbon quaternary center formed in the Ireland–Claisen rearrangement. Furthermore, a single hydride reduction and subsequent translactonization of a C4 methylester bearing oxabicyclo[2.2.2]octane core demonstrated a viable strategy for the desired skeletal rearrangement to obtain pentacyclic transtaganolides A and B. Application of the asymmetric strategy culminated in the total syntheses of (–)-transtaganolide A, (+)-transtaganolide B, (+)-transtaganolide C, and (–)-transtaganolide D. Comparison of the optical rotation data of the synthetically derived transtaganolides to that from the isolated counterparts has overarching biosynthetic implications which are discussed.

Lastly, improvement to the formal [5+2] annulation strategy is described. Negishi cross-coupling of methoxyethynyl zinc chloride using a palladium Xantphos catalyst is optimized for iodo-cyclohexene. Application of this technology to an iodo-pyrone geranyl ester allowed for formation and isolation of the eneyne product. Hydration of the enenye product forms natural metabolite basiliopyrone. Furthermore, the eneyne product can undergo an ICR/DA cascade and form transtaganolides C and D in a single step from an achiral monocyclic precursor.

Exploring the Kinetics of Domain Switching in Ferroelectrics for Structural Applications

The complex domain structure in ferroelectrics gives rise to electromechanical coupling, and its evolution (via domain switching) results in a time-dependent (i.e. viscoelastic) response. Although ferroelectrics are used in many technological applications, most do not attempt to exploit the viscoelastic response of ferroelectrics, mainly due to a lack of understanding and accurate models for their description and prediction. Thus, the aim of this thesis research is to gain better understanding of the influence of domain evolution in ferroelectrics on their dynamic mechanical response. There have been few studies on the viscoelastic properties of ferroelectrics, mainly due to a lack of experimental methods. Therefore, an apparatus and method called Broadband Electromechanical Spectroscopy (BES) was designed and built. BES allows for the simultaneous application of dynamic mechanical and electrical loading in a vacuum environment. Using BES, the dynamic stiffness and loss tangent in bending and torsion of a particular ferroelectric, viz. lead zirconate titanate (PZT), was characterized for different combinations of electrical and mechanical loading frequencies throughout the entire electric displacement hysteresis. Experimental results showed significant increases in loss tangent (by nearly an order of magnitude) and compliance during domain switching, which shows promise as a new approach to structural damping. A continuum model of the viscoelasticity of ferroelectrics was developed, which incorporates microstructural evolution via internal variables and associated kinetic relations. For the first time, through a new linearization process, the incremental dynamic stiffness and loss tangent of materials were computed throughout the entire electric displacement hysteresis for different combinations of mechanical and electrical loading frequencies. The model accurately captured experimental results. Using the understanding gained from the characterization and modeling of PZT, two applications of domain switching kinetics were explored by using Micro Fiber Composites (MFCs). Proofs of concept of set-and-hold actuation and structural damping using MFCs were demonstrated.