962 resultados para SYSTEM DYNAMICS
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During development, the genome undergoes drastic reorganization within the nuclear space. To determine tridimensional genome folding, genome-wide techniques (damID/Hi-C) can be applied using cell populations, but these have to be calibrated using microscopy and single-cell analysis of gene positioning. Moreover, the dynamic behavior of chromatin has to be assessed on living samples. Combining fast stereotypic development with easy genetics and microscopy, the nematode C. elegans has become a model of choice in recent years to study changes in nuclear organization during cell fate acquisition. Here we present two complementary techniques to evaluate nuclear positioning of genes either by fluorescence in situ hybridization in fixed samples or in living worm embryos using the GFP-lacI/lacO chromatin-tagging system.
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bstract With its smaller size, well-known boundary conditions, and the availability of detailed bathymetric data, Lake Geneva’s subaquatic canyon in the Rhone Delta is an excellent analogue to understand sedimentary pro- cesses in deep-water submarine channels. A multidisciplinary research effort was undertaken to unravel the sediment dynamics in the active canyon. This approach included innovative coring using the Russian MIR sub- mersibles, in situ geotechnical tests, and geophysical, sedimentological, geochemical and radiometric analysis techniques. The canyon floor/levee complex is character- ized by a classic turbiditic system with frequent spillover events. Sedimentary evolution in the active canyon is controlled by a complex interplay between erosion and sedimentation processes. In situ profiling of sediment strength in the upper layer was tested using a dynamic penetrometer and suggests that erosion is the governing mechanism in the proximal canyon floor while sedimen- tation dominates in the levee structure. Sedimentation rates progressively decrease down-channel along the levee structure, with accumulation exceeding 2.6 cm/year in the proximal levee. A decrease in the frequency of turbidites upwards along the canyon wall suggests a progressive confinement of the flow through time. The multi-proxy methodology has also enabled a qualitative slope-stability assessment in the levee structure. The rapid sediment loading, slope undercutting and over-steepening, and increased pore pressure due to high methane concentrations hint at a potential instability of the proximal levees. Fur- thermore, discrete sandy intervals show very high methane concentrations and low shear strength and thus could cor- respond to potentially weak layers prone to scarp failures.
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Beginning in the early 1980s, the health care system experienced momentous realignments. Fundamental changes in structures of traditional health care organizations, shifts in authority and relationships of professionals and institutions, and the increasing influence of managed care contributed to a relatively stable industry entering into a state of turbulence. The dynamics of these changes are recurring themes in the health services literature. The purpose of this dissertation was to examine the content of this literature over a defined time period and within the perspective of a theory of organizational change. ^ Using a theoretical framework based upon the organizational theory known as Organizational Ecology, secondary data from the period between 1983 and 1994 was reviewed. Analysis of the literature identified through a defined search methodology was focused upon determining the manner in which the literature characterized changes that were described. Using a model constructed from fundamentals of Organizational Ecology with which to structure an assessment of content, literature was summarized for the manner and extent of change in specific organizational forms and for the changes in emphasis by the environmental dynamics directing changes in the population of organizations. Although it was not the intent of the analysis to substantiate causal relationships between environmental resources selected as the determinants of organizational change and the observed changes in organizational forms, the structured review of content of the literature established a strong basis for inferring such a relationship. ^ The results of the integrative review of the literature and the power of the appraisal achieved through the theoretical framework constructed for the analysis indicate that there is considerable value in such an approach. An historical perspective on changes which have transformed the health care system developed within a defined organizational theory provide a unique insight into these changes and indicate the need for further development of such an analytical model. ^
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The aim of this study was to explore potential causes and mechanisms for the sequence and temporal pattern of tree taxa, specifically for the shift from shrub-tundra to birch–juniper woodland during and after the transition from the Oldest Dryas to the Bølling–Allerød in the region surrounding the lake Gerzensee in southern Central Europe. We tested the influence of climate, forest dynamics, community dynamics compared to other causes for delays. For this aim temperature reconstructed from a δ18O-record was used as input driving the multi-species forest-landscape model TreeMig. In a stepwise scenario analysis, population dynamics along with pollen production and transport were simulated and compared with pollen-influx data, according to scenarios of different δ18O/temperature sensitivities, different precipitation levels, with/without inter-specific competition, and with/without prescribed arrival of species. In the best-fitting scenarios, the effects on competitive relationships, pollen production, spatial forest structure, albedo, and surface roughness were examined in more detail. The appearance of most taxa in the data could only be explained by the coldest temperature scenario with a sensitivity of 0.3‰/°C, corresponding to an anomaly of − 15 °C. Once the taxa were present, their temporal pattern was shaped by competition. The later arrival of Pinus could not be explained even by the coldest temperatures, and its timing had to be prescribed by first observations in the pollen record. After the arrival into the simulation area, the expansion of Pinus was further influenced by competitors and minor climate oscillations. The rapid change in the simulated species composition went along with a drastic change in forest structure, leaf area, albedo, and surface roughness. Pollen increased only shortly after biomass. Based on our simulations, two alternative potential scenarios for the pollen pattern can be given: either very cold climate suppressed most species in the Oldest Dryas, or they were delayed by soil formation or migration. One taxon, Pinus, was delayed by migration and then additionally hindered by competition. Community dynamics affected the pattern in two ways: potentially by facilitation, i.e. by nitrogen-fixing pioneer species at the onset, whereas the later pattern was clearly shaped by competition. The simulated structural changes illustrate how vegetation on a larger scale could feed back to the climate system. For a better understanding, a more integrated simulation approach covering also the immigration from refugia would be necessary, for this combines climate-driven population dynamics, migration, individual pollen production and transport, soil dynamics, and physiology of individual pollen production.
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A dynamical model, developed to account for the observed major variations of global ice mass and atmospheric CO2 during the late Cenozoic, is used to provide a quantitative demonstration of the possibility that the anthropogenically-forced increase of atmospheric CO2, if maintained over a long period of time (perhaps by tectonic forcing), could displace the climatic system from an unstable regime of oscillating ice ages into a more stable regime representative of the pre-Pleistocene. This stable regime is characterized by orbitally-forced oscillations that are of much weaker amplitude than prevailed during the Pleistocene.
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This paper reviews developments in our understanding of the state of the Antarctic and Southern Ocean climate and its relation to the global climate system over the last few millennia. Climate over this and earlier periods has not been stable, as evidenced by the occurrence of abrupt changes in atmospheric circulation and temperature recorded in Antarctic ice core proxies for past climate. Two of the most prominent abrupt climate change events are characterized by intensification of the circumpolar westerlies (also known as the Southern Annular Mode) between similar to 6000 and 5000 years ago and since 1200-1000 years ago. Following the last of these is a period of major trans-Antarctic reorganization of atmospheric circulation and temperature between A. D. 1700 and 1850. The two earlier Antarctic abrupt climate change events appear linked to but predate by several centuries even more abrupt climate change in the North Atlantic, and the end of the more recent event is coincident with reorganization of atmospheric circulation in the North Pacific. Improved understanding of such events and of the associations between abrupt climate change events recorded in both hemispheres is critical to predicting the impact and timing of future abrupt climate change events potentially forced by anthropogenic changes in greenhouse gases and aerosols. Special attention is given to the climate of the past 200 years, which was recorded by a network of recently available shallow firn cores, and to that of the past 50 years, which was monitored by the continuous instrumental record. Significant regional climate changes have taken place in the Antarctic during the past 50 years. Atmospheric temperatures have increased markedly over the Antarctic Peninsula, linked to nearby ocean warming and intensification of the circumpolar westerlies. Glaciers are retreating on the peninsula, in Patagonia, on the sub-Antarctic islands, and in West Antarctica adjacent to the peninsula. The penetration of marine air masses has become more pronounced over parts of West Antarctica. Above the surface, the Antarctic troposphere has warmed during winter while the stratosphere has cooled year-round. The upper kilometer of the circumpolar Southern Ocean has warmed, Antarctic Bottom Water across a wide sector off East Antarctica has freshened, and the densest bottom water in the Weddell Sea has warmed. In contrast to these regional climate changes, over most of Antarctica, near-surface temperature and snowfall have not increased significantly during at least the past 50 years, and proxy data suggest that the atmospheric circulation over the interior has remained in a similar state for at least the past 200 years. Furthermore, the total sea ice cover around Antarctica has exhibited no significant overall change since reliable satellite monitoring began in the late 1970s, despite large but compensating regional changes. The inhomogeneity of Antarctic climate in space and time implies that recent Antarctic climate changes are due on the one hand to a combination of strong multidecadal variability and anthropogenic effects and, as demonstrated by the paleoclimate record, on the other hand to multidecadal to millennial scale and longer natural variability forced through changes in orbital insolation, greenhouse gases, solar variability, ice dynamics, and aerosols. Model projections suggest that over the 21st century the Antarctic interior will warm by 3.4 degrees +/- 1 degrees C, and sea ice extent will decrease by similar to 30%. Ice sheet models are not yet adequate enough to answer pressing questins about the effect of projected warming on mass balance and sea level. Considering the potentially major impacts of a warming climate on Antarctica, vigorous efforts are needed to better understand all aspects of the highly coupled Antarctic climate system as well as its influence on the Earth's climate and oceans.
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Understanding the behavior of large outlet glaciers draining the Greenland Ice Sheet is critical for assessing the impact of climate change on sea level rise. The flow of marine-terminating outlet glaciers is partly governed by calving-related processes taking place at the terminus but is also influenced by the drainage of surface runoff to the bed through moulins, cracks, and other pathways. To investigate the extent of the latter effect, we develop a distributed surface-energy-balance model for Helheim Glacier, East Greenland, to calculate surface melt and thereby estimate runoff. The model is driven by data from an automatic weather station operated on the glacier during the summers of 2007 and 2008, and calibrated with independent measurements of ablation. Modeled melt varies over the deployment period by as much as 68% relative to the mean, with melt rates approximately 77% higher on the lower reaches of the glacier trunk than on the upper glacier. We compare melt variations during the summer season to estimates of surface velocity derived from global positioning system surveys. Near the front of the glacier, there is a significant correlation (on >95% levels) between variations in runoff (estimated from surface melt) and variations in velocity, with a 1 day delay in velocity relative to melt. Although the velocity changes are small compared to accelerations previously observed following some calving events, our findings suggest that the flow speed of Helheim Glacier is sensitive to changes in runoff. The response is most significant in the heavily crevassed, fast-moving region near the calving front. The delay in the peak of the cross-correlation function implies a transit time of 12-36 h for surface runoff to reach the bed.
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Simulating the spatio-temporal dynamics of inundation is key to understanding the role of wetlands under past and future climate change. Earlier modelling studies have mostly relied on fixed prescribed peatland maps and inundation time series of limited temporal coverage. Here, we describe and assess the the Dynamical Peatland Model Based on TOPMODEL (DYPTOP), which predicts the extent of inundation based on a computationally efficient TOPMODEL implementation. This approach rests on an empirical, grid-cell-specific relationship between the mean soil water balance and the flooded area. DYPTOP combines the simulated inundation extent and its temporal persistency with criteria for the ecosystem water balance and the modelled peatland-specific soil carbon balance to predict the global distribution of peatlands. We apply DYPTOP in combination with the LPX-Bern DGVM and benchmark the global-scale distribution, extent, and seasonality of inundation against satellite data. DYPTOP successfully predicts the spatial distribution and extent of wetlands and major boreal and tropical peatland complexes and reveals the governing limitations to peatland occurrence across the globe. Peatlands covering large boreal lowlands are reproduced only when accounting for a positive feedback induced by the enhanced mean soil water holding capacity in peatland-dominated regions. DYPTOP is designed to minimize input data requirements, optimizes computational efficiency and allows for a modular adoption in Earth system models.
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BACKGROUND Understanding the composition and dynamics of the upper respiratory tract microbiota in healthy infants is a prerequisite to investigate the role of the microbiota in patients with respiratory diseases. This is especially true in early life, when the immune system is in development. OBJECTIVE We sought to describe the dynamics of the upper respiratory tract microbiota in healthy infants within the first year of life. METHODS After exclusion of low-quality samples, microbiota characterization was performed by using 16S rDNA pyrosequencing of 872 nasal swabs collected biweekly from 47 unselected infants. RESULTS Bacterial density increased and diversity decreased within the first year of life (R(2) = 0.95 and 0.73, respectively). A distinct profile for the first 3 months of life was found with increased relative abundances of Staphlyococcaceae and Corynebacteriaceae (exponential decay: R(2) = 0.94 and 0.96, respectively). In addition, relative bacterial abundance and composition differed significantly from summer to winter months. The individual composition of the microbiota changed with increasing time intervals between samples and was best modeled by an exponential function (R(2) = 0.97). Within-subject dissimilarity in a 2-week time interval was consistently lower than that between subjects, indicating a personalized microbiota. CONCLUSION This study reveals age and seasonality as major factors driving the composition of the nasal microbiota within the first year of life. A subject's microbiota is personalized but dynamic throughout the first year. These data are indispensable to interpretation of cross-sectional studies and investigation of the role of the microbiota in both healthy subjects and patients with respiratory diseases. They might also serve as a baseline for future intervention studies.
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Many end-stage heart failure patients are not eligible to undergo heart transplantation due to organ shortage, and even those under consideration for transplantation might suffer long waiting periods. A better understanding of the hemodynamic impact of left ventricular assist devices (LVAD) on the cardiovascular system is therefore of great interest. Computational fluid dynamics (CFD) simulations give the opportunity to study the hemodynamics in this patient population using clinical imaging data such as computed tomographic angiography. This article reviews a recent study series involving patients with pulsatile and constant-flow LVAD devices in which CFD simulations were used to qualitatively and quantitatively assess blood flow dynamics in the thoracic aorta, demonstrating its potential to enhance the information available from medical imaging.
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This paper presents a method for attributing regional trends in the frequency of extremely hot days (EHDs) to changes in the frequency of the atmospheric patterns that characterize such extraordinary events. The study is applied to mainland Spain and the Balearic Islands for the extended summers of the period 1958–2008, where significant and positive trends in maximum temperature (Tx) have been reported during the second half of the past century. First, the study area was split into eight regions attending to their different temporal variability of the daily Tx series obtained from the Spain02 gridded data set using a clustering procedure. Second, the large-scale atmospheric situations causing EHDs are defined by circulation types (CTs). The obtainment of the CTs differs from the majority of CT classifications proposed in the literature. It is based on regional series and on a previous characterization of the main atmospheric situations obtained using only some days classified as extremes in the different regions. Three different atmospheric fields (SLP, T850, and Z500) from ECMWF reanalysis and analysis data and combinations of them (SLP–T850, SLP–Z500, and T850–Z500) are used to produce six different CT classifications. Subsequently, links between EHD occurrence in the different regions and CT for all days have been established. Finally, a simple model to relate the trends in EHDsfor each region to the changes in the CT frequency appearance has been formulated. Most regions present positive and significant trends in the occurrence of EHDs. The CT classifications using two variables perform better. In particular, SLP–T850 is the best for characterizing the atmospheric situations leading to EHD occurrences for most of the regions. Only a small number of CTs have significant trends in their frequency and are associated with high efficiency causing EHD occurrences in most regions simultaneously, especially in the northern and central regions. Attribution results show that changes in circulation can only explain some part of the regional EHD trends. The percentage of the trend attributable to changes in atmospheric dynamics varies from 15 to 50 %, depends on the region and is sensitive to the selected large-scale variables.
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• Background and Aims The uptake, translocation and redistribution of the heavy metals zinc, manganese, nickel, cobalt and cadmium are relevant for plant nutrition as well as for the quality of harvested plant products. The long-distance transport of these heavy metals within the root system and the release to the shoot in young wheat (Triticum aestivum ‘Arina’) plants were investigated. • Methods After the application of 65Zn, 54Mn, 63Ni, 57Co and 109Cd for 24 h to one seminal root (the other seminal roots being excised) of 54-h-old wheat seedlings, the labelled plants were incubated for several days in hydroponic culture on a medium without radionuclides. • Key Results The content of 65Zn decreased quickly in the labelled part of the root. After the transfer of 65Zn from the roots to the shoot, a further redistribution in the phloem from older to younger leaves was observed. In contrast to 65Zn, 109Cd was released more slowly from the roots to the leaves and was subsequently redistributed in the phloem to the youngest leaves only at trace levels. The content of 63Ni decreased quickly in the labelled part of the root, moving to the newly formed parts of the root system and also accumulating transiently in the expanding leaves. The 54Mn content decreased quickly in the labelled part of the root and increased simultaneously in leaf 1. A strong retention in the labelled part of the root was observed after supplying 57Co. • Conclusions The dynamics of redistribution of 65Zn, 54Mn, 63Ni, 57Co and 109Cd differed considerably. The rapid redistribution of 63Ni from older to younger leaves throughout the experiment indicated a high mobility in the phloem, while 54Mn was mobile only in the xylem and 57Co was retained in the labelled root without being loaded into the xylem.
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Space debris in geostationary orbits may be detected with optical telescopes when the objects are illuminated by the Sun. The advantage compared to Radar can be found in the illumination: radar illuminates the objects and thus the detection sensitivity depletest proportional to the fourth power of the d istance. The German Space Operation Center, GSOC, together with the Astronomical Institute of the University of Bern, AIUB, are setting up a telescope system called SMARTnet to demonstrate the capability of performing geostationary surveillance. Such a telescope system will consist of two telescopes on one mount: a smaller telescope with an aperture of 20cm will serve for fast survey while the larger one, a telescope with an aperture of 50cm, will be used for follow-up observations. The telescopes will be operated by GSOC from Oberpfaffenhofen by the internal monitoring and control system called SMARTnetMAC. The observation plan will be generated by MARTnetPlanning seven days in advance by applying an optimized planning scheduler, taking into account fault time like cloudy nights, priority of objects etc. From each picture taken, stars will be identified and everything not being a star is treated as a possible object. If the same object can be identified on multiple pictures within a short time span, the trace is called a tracklet. In the next step, several tracklets will be correlated to identify individual objects, ephemeris data for these objects are generated and catalogued . This will allow for services like collision avoidance to ensure safe operations for GSOC’s satellites. The complete data processing chain is handled by BACARDI, the backbone catalogue of relational debris information and is presented as a poster.
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Although negative density dependence (NDD) can facilitate tree species coexistence in forests, the underlying mechanisms can differ, and rarely are the dynamics of seedlings and saplings studied together. Herein we present and discuss a novel mechanism based on our investigation of NDD predictions for the large, grove-forming ectomycorrhizal mast fruiting tree, Microberlinia bisulcata (Caesalpiniaceae), in an 82.5-ha plot at Korup, Cameroon. We tested whether juvenile density, size, growth and survival decreases with increasing conspecific adult basal area for 3245 ‘new’ seedlings and 540 ‘old’ seedlings (< 75-cm tall) during an approximately 4-year study period (2008–2012) and for 234 ‘saplings’ (≥ 75-cm tall) during an approximately 6-year study period (2008–2014). We found that the respective densities of new seedlings, old seedlings and saplings were positively, not and negatively related to increasing BA. Maximum leaf numbers and heights of old seedlings were negatively correlated with increasing basal areas, as were sapling heights and stem diameters. Whereas survivorship of new seedlings decreased by more than one-half with increasing basal area over its range in 2010–2012, that of old seedlings decreased by almost two-thirds, but only in 2008–2010, and was generally unrelated to conspecific seedling density. In 2010–2012 relative growth rates in new seedlings’ heights decreased with increasing basal area, as well as with increasing seedling density, together with increasing leaf numbers, whereas old seedlings’ growth was unrelated to either conspecific density or basal area. Saplings of below-average height had reduced survivorship with increasing basal area (probability decreasing from approx. 0.4 to 0.05 over the basal area range tested), but only sapling growth in terms of leaf numbers decreased with increasing basal area. These static and dynamic results indicate that NDD is operating within this system, possibly stabilizing the M. bisulcata population. However, these NDD patterns are unlikely to be caused by symmetric competition or by consumers. Instead, an alternative mechanism for conspecific adult–juvenile negative feedback is proposed, one which involves the interaction between tree phenology and ectomycorrhizal linkages.
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This paper reviews the methods, benefits and challenges associated with the adoption and translation of computational fluid dynamics (CFD) modelling within cardiovascular medicine. CFD, a specialist area of mathematics and a branch of fluid mechanics, is used routinely in a diverse range of safety-critical engineering systems, which increasingly is being applied to the cardiovascular system. By facilitating rapid, economical, low-risk prototyping, CFD modelling has already revolutionised research and development of devices such as stents, valve prostheses, and ventricular assist devices. Combined with cardiovascular imaging, CFD simulation enables detailed characterisation of complex physiological pressure and flow fields and the computation of metrics which cannot be directly measured, for example, wall shear stress. CFD models are now being translated into clinical tools for physicians to use across the spectrum of coronary, valvular, congenital, myocardial and peripheral vascular diseases. CFD modelling is apposite for minimally-invasive patient assessment. Patient-specific (incorporating data unique to the individual) and multi-scale (combining models of different length- and time-scales) modelling enables individualised risk prediction and virtual treatment planning. This represents a significant departure from traditional dependence upon registry-based, population-averaged data. Model integration is progressively moving towards 'digital patient' or 'virtual physiological human' representations. When combined with population-scale numerical models, these models have the potential to reduce the cost, time and risk associated with clinical trials. The adoption of CFD modelling signals a new era in cardiovascular medicine. While potentially highly beneficial, a number of academic and commercial groups are addressing the associated methodological, regulatory, education- and service-related challenges.