A simple score for estimating ischemic heart disease in patients with non-traumatic chest pain in primary care

Background: Modelling epidemiological knowledge in validated clinical scores is a practical mean of integrating EBM to usual care. Existing scores about cardiovascular disease have been largely developed in emergency settings, but few in primary care. Such a toll is needed for general practitioners (GP) to evaluate the probability of ischemic heart disease (IHD) in patients with non-traumatic chest pain. Objective: To develop a predictive model to use as a clinical score for detecting IHD in patients with non-traumatic chest-pain in primary care. Methods: A post-hoc secondary analysis on data from an observational study including 672 patients with chest pain of which 85 had IHD diagnosed by their GP during the year following their inclusion. Best subset method was used to select 8 predictive variables from univariate analysis and fitted in a multivariate logistic regression model to define the score. Reliability of the model was assessed using split-group method. Results: Significant predictors were: age (0-3 points), gender (1 point), having at least one cardiovascular risks factor (hypertension, dyslipidemia, diabetes, smoking, family history of CVD; 3 points), personal history of cardiovascular disease (1 point), duration of chest pain from 1 to 60 minutes (2 points), substernal chest pain (1 point), pain increasing with exertion (1 point) and absence of tenderness at palpation (1 point). Area under the ROC curve for the score was of 0.95 (IC95% 0.93; 0.97). Patients were categorised in three groups, low risk of IHD (score under 6; n = 360), moderate risk of IHD (score from 6 to 8; n = 187) and high risk of IHD (score from 9-13; n = 125). Prevalence of IHD in each group was respectively of 0%, 6.7%, 58.5%. Reliability of the model seems satisfactory as the model developed from the derivation set predicted perfectly (p = 0.948) the number of patients in each group in the validation set. Conclusion: This clinical score based only on history and physical exams can be an important tool in the practice of the general physician for the prediction of ischemic heart disease in patients complaining of chest pain. The score below 6 points (in more than half of our population) can avoid demanding complementary exams for selected patients (ECG, laboratory tests) because of the very low risk of IHD. Score above 6 points needs investigation to detect or rule out IHD. Further external validation is required in ambulatory settings.

Status Epilepticus Severity Score (STESS): a tool to orient early treatment strategy

BACKGROUND : Status epilepticus (SE) treatment ranges from small benzodiazepine doses to coma induction. For some SE subgroups, it is unclear how the risk of an aggressive therapeutic approach balances with outcome improvement. We recently developed a prognostic score (Status Epilepticus Severity Score, STESS), relying on four outcome predictors (age, history of seizures, seizure type and extent of consciousness impairment), determined before treatment institution. Our aim was to assess whether the score might have a role in the treatment strategy choice. METHODS : This cohort study involved adult patients in three centers. For each patient, the STESS was calculated before primary outcome assessment: survival vs. death at discharge. Its ability to predict survival was estimated through the negative predictive value for mortality (NPV). Stratified odds ratios (OR) for mortality were calculated considering coma induction as exposure; strata were defined by the STESS level. RESULTS : In the observed 154 patients, the STESS had an excellent negative predictive value (0.97). A favorable STESS was highly related to survival (P < 0.001), and to return to baseline clinical condition in survivors (P < 0.001). The combined Mantel-Haenszel OR for mortality in patients stratified after coma induction and their STESS was 1.5 (95 % CI: 0.59-3.83). CONCLUSION : The STESS reliably identifies SE patients who will survive. Early aggressive treatment could not be routinely warranted in patients with a favorable STESS, who will almost certainly survive their SE episode. A randomized trial using this score would be needed to confirm this hypothesis.

Spatial statistical analysis and selection of genotypes in plant breeding

The objective of this study was to evaluate the efficiency of spatial statistical analysis in the selection of genotypes in a plant breeding program and, particularly, to demonstrate the benefits of the approach when experimental observations are not spatially independent. The basic material of this study was a yield trial of soybean lines, with five check varieties (of fixed effect) and 110 test lines (of random effects), in an augmented block design. The spatial analysis used a random field linear model (RFML), with a covariance function estimated from the residuals of the analysis considering independent errors. Results showed a residual autocorrelation of significant magnitude and extension (range), which allowed a better discrimination among genotypes (increase of the power of statistical tests, reduction in the standard errors of estimates and predictors, and a greater amplitude of predictor values) when the spatial analysis was applied. Furthermore, the spatial analysis led to a different ranking of the genetic materials, in comparison with the non-spatial analysis, and a selection less influenced by local variation effects was obtained.

Families of periodic orbits for the spatial isosceles 3-body problem

We study the families of periodic orbits of the spatial isosceles 3-body problem (for small enough values of the mass lying on the symmetry axis) coming via the analytic continuation method from periodic orbits of the circular Sitnikov problem. Using the first integral of the angular momentum, we reduce the dimension of the phase space of the problem by two units. Since periodic orbits of the reduced isosceles problem generate invariant two-dimensional tori of the nonreduced problem, the analytic continuation of periodic orbits of the (reduced) circular Sitnikov problem at this level becomes the continuation of invariant two-dimensional tori from the circular Sitnikov problem to the nonreduced isosceles problem, each one filled with periodic or quasi-periodic orbits. These tori are not KAM tori but just isotropic, since we are dealing with a three-degrees-of-freedom system. The continuation of periodic orbits is done in two different ways, the first going directly from the reduced circular Sitnikov problem to the reduced isosceles problem, and the second one using two steps: first we continue the periodic orbits from the reduced circular Sitnikov problem to the reduced elliptic Sitnikov problem, and then we continue those periodic orbits of the reduced elliptic Sitnikov problem to the reduced isosceles problem. The continuation in one or two steps produces different results. This work is merely analytic and uses the variational equations in order to apply Poincar´e’s continuation method.

Machine learning for spatial environmental data. Theory, applications and software

The book presents the state of the art in machine learning algorithms (artificial neural networks of different architectures, support vector machines, etc.) as applied to the classification and mapping of spatially distributed environmental data. Basic geostatistical algorithms are presented as well. New trends in machine learning and their application to spatial data are given, and real case studies based on environmental and pollution data are carried out. The book provides a CD-ROM with the Machine Learning Office software, including sample sets of data, that will allow both students and researchers to put the concepts rapidly to practice.

Central configurations of nested regular polyhedra for the spatial 2n–body problem

We consider 2n masses located at the vertices of two nested regular polyhedra with the same number of vertices. Assuming that the masses in each polyhedron are equal, we prove that for each ratio of the masses of the inner and the outer polyhedron there exists a unique ratio of the length of the edges of the inner and the outer polyhedron such that the configuration is central.

Central configurations of three nested regular polyhedra for the spatial 3n–body problem

Three regular polyhedra are called nested if they have the same number of vertices n, the same center and the positions of the vertices of the inner polyhedron ri, the ones of the medium polyhedron Ri and the ones of the outer polyhedron Ri satisfy the relation Ri = ri and Ri = Rri for some scale factors R > > 1 and for all i = 1, . . . , n. We consider 3n masses located at the vertices of three nested regular polyhedra. We assume that the masses of the inner polyhedron are equal to m1, the masses of the medium one are equal to m2, and the masses of the outer one are equal to m3. We prove that if the ratios of the masses m2/m1 and m3/m1 and the scale factors and R satisfy two convenient relations, then this configuration is central for the 3n–body problem. Moreover there is some numerical evidence that, first, fixed two values of the ratios m2/m1 and m3/m1, the 3n–body problem has a unique central configuration of this type; and second that the number of nested regular polyhedra with the same number of vertices forming a central configuration for convenient masses and sizes is arbitrary.

La renda salarial a Osona. Estimació, distribució espacial i mesures de desigualtat

Aquest estudi analitza la distribució de la renda salarial a la comarca d’Osona, en comparació amb la resta de comarques de Catalunya i la seva distribució entre els municipis, utilitzant una base de dades original creada a partir de la informació sobre salaris de l’Enquesta d’Estructura Salarial i sobre la població dels censos de 1996 i 2001. La unitat espacial utilitzada, la secció censal, permet obtenir estimacions per als diferents àmbits geogràfics i calcular i descompondre índexs de desigualtat que mostren les característiques de les distribucions.

Spatial Polarization of the Ecological Footprint distribution

The international allocation of natural resources is determined, not by any ethical or ecological criteria, but by the dominance of market mechanisms. From a core-periphery perspective, this allocation may even be driven by historically determined structural patterns, with a core group of countries whose consumption appropriates most available natural resources, and another group, having low natural resource consumption, which plays a peripheral role. This article consists of an empirical distributional analysis of natural resource consumption (as measured by Ecological Footprints) whose purpose is to assess the extent to which the distribution of consumption responds to polarization (as opposed to mere inequality). To assess this, we estimate and decompose different polarization indices for a balanced sample of 119 countries over the period 1961 to 2007. Our results points toward a polarized distribution which is consistent with a core-periphery framework.

Organization and plasticity of auditory spatial representations

Spatial hearing refers to a set of abilities enabling us to determine the location of sound sources, redirect our attention toward relevant acoustic events, and recognize separate sound sources in noisy environments. Determining the location of sound sources plays a key role in the way in which humans perceive and interact with their environment. Deficits in sound localization abilities are observed after lesions to the neural tissues supporting these functions and can result in serious handicaps in everyday life. These deficits can, however, be remediated (at least to a certain degree) by the surprising capacity of reorganization that the human brain possesses following damage and/or learning, namely, the brain plasticity. In this thesis, our aim was to investigate the functional organization of auditory spatial functions and the learning-induced plasticity of these functions. Overall, we describe the results of three studies. The first study entitled "The role of the right parietal cortex in sound localization: A chronometric single pulse transcranial magnetic stimulation study" (At et al., 2011), study A, investigated the role of the right parietal cortex in spatial functions and its chronometry (i.e. the critical time window of its contribution to sound localizations). We concentrated on the behavioral changes produced by the temporarily inactivation of the parietal cortex with transcranial magnetic stimulation (TMS). We found that the integrity of the right parietal cortex is crucial for localizing sounds in the space and determined a critical time window of its involvement, suggesting a right parietal dominance for auditory spatial discrimination in both hemispaces. In "Distributed coding of the auditory space in man: evidence from training-induced plasticity" (At et al., 2013a), study B, we investigated the neurophysiological correlates and changes of the different sub-parties of the right auditory hemispace induced by a multi-day auditory spatial training in healthy subjects with electroencephalography (EEG). We report a distributed coding for sound locations over numerous auditory regions, particular auditory areas code specifically for precise parts of the auditory space, and this specificity for a distinct region is enhanced with training. In the third study "Training-induced changes in auditory spatial mismatch negativity" (At et al., 2013b), study C, we investigated the pre-attentive neurophysiological changes induced with a training over 4 days in healthy subjects with a passive mismatch negativity (MMN) paradigm. We showed that training changed the mechanisms for the relative representation of sound positions and not the specific lateralization themselves and that it changed the coding in right parahippocampal regions. - L'audition spatiale désigne notre capacité à localiser des sources sonores dans l'espace, de diriger notre attention vers les événements acoustiques pertinents et de reconnaître des sources sonores appartenant à des objets distincts dans un environnement bruyant. La localisation des sources sonores joue un rôle important dans la façon dont les humains perçoivent et interagissent avec leur environnement. Des déficits dans la localisation de sons sont souvent observés quand les réseaux neuronaux impliqués dans cette fonction sont endommagés. Ces déficits peuvent handicaper sévèrement les patients dans leur vie de tous les jours. Cependant, ces déficits peuvent (au moins à un certain degré) être réhabilités grâce à la plasticité cérébrale, la capacité du cerveau humain à se réorganiser après des lésions ou un apprentissage. L'objectif de cette thèse était d'étudier l'organisation fonctionnelle de l'audition spatiale et la plasticité induite par l'apprentissage de ces fonctions. Dans la première étude intitulé « The role of the right parietal cortex in sound localization : A chronometric single pulse study » (At et al., 2011), étude A, nous avons examiné le rôle du cortex pariétal droit dans l'audition spatiale et sa chronométrie, c'est-à- dire le moment critique de son intervention dans la localisation de sons. Nous nous sommes concentrés sur les changements comportementaux induits par l'inactivation temporaire du cortex pariétal droit par le biais de la Stimulation Transcrânienne Magnétique (TMS). Nous avons démontré que l'intégrité du cortex pariétal droit est cruciale pour localiser des sons dans l'espace. Nous avons aussi défini le moment critique de l'intervention de cette structure. Dans « Distributed coding of the auditory space : evidence from training-induced plasticity » (At et al., 2013a), étude B, nous avons examiné la plasticité cérébrale induite par un entraînement des capacités de discrimination auditive spatiale de plusieurs jours. Nous avons montré que le codage des positions spatiales est distribué dans de nombreuses régions auditives, que des aires auditives spécifiques codent pour des parties données de l'espace et que cette spécificité pour des régions distinctes est augmentée par l'entraînement. Dans « Training-induced changes in auditory spatial mismatch negativity » (At et al., 2013b), étude C, nous avons examiné les changements neurophysiologiques pré- attentionnels induits par un entraînement de quatre jours. Nous avons montré que l'entraînement modifie la représentation des positions spatiales entraînées et non-entrainées, et que le codage de ces positions est modifié dans des régions parahippocampales.

Maize yield and rainfall on different spatial and temporal scales in Southern Brazil

This study aimed to establish relationships between maize yield and rainfall on different temporal and spatial scales, in order to provide a basis for crop monitoring and modelling. A 16-year series of maize yield and daily rainfall from 11 municipalities and micro-regions of Rio Grande do Sul State was used. Correlation and regression analyses were used to determine associations between crop yield and rainfall for the entire crop cycle, from tasseling to 30 days after, and from 5 days before tasseling to 40 days after. Close relationships between maize yield and rainfall were found, particularly during the reproductive period (45-day period comprising the flowering and grain filling). Relationships were closer on a regional scale than at smaller scales. Implications of the crop-rainfall relationships for crop modelling are discussed.

Body condition score to predict the postpartum fertility of crossbred beef cows

The relationship between changes in body condition score (BCS) during the postpartum and fertility in beef cows suckling calves under extensive conditions were investigated. Cows were subjected to four BCS evaluations over the postpartum period, starting around one month after calving. In the second evaluation cows were treated with medroxy-progesterone acetate impregnated pessaries and received an injection of estradiol benzoate. At the third evaluation, pessaries were removed and calves were separated from the cows for 96 hours, during which time estrous was observed twice a day, and animals artificially inseminated 12 hours after detection. When calves returned to their dams, bulls were introduced until a 60-day mating period was reached. The distribution of BCS differed among calving groups and evaluations. Results indicated that only cows comprising a BCS 3 (1 to 5 scale) around the first month postpartum can be used in an artificial insemination program with possibilities of becoming pregnant. There was no statistical difference between the calving groups in pregnancy rate. The evolution of the BCS of the cows during postpartum can be used to adjust the start of the breeding season to coincide with the time of the year where herd pregnancy rates will be highest.