Increased frequency of extreme La Niña events under greenhouse warming

The El Niño/Southern Oscillation is Earth’s most prominent source of interannual climate variability, alternating irregularly between El Niño and La Niña, and resulting in global disruption of weather patterns, ecosystems, fisheries and agriculture1, 2, 3, 4, 5. The 1998–1999 extreme La Niña event that followed the 1997–1998 extreme El Niño event6 switched extreme El Niño-induced severe droughts to devastating floods in western Pacific countries, and vice versa in the southwestern United States4, 7. During extreme La Niña events, cold sea surface conditions develop in the central Pacific8, 9, creating an enhanced temperature gradient from the Maritime continent to the central Pacific. Recent studies have revealed robust changes in El Niño characteristics in response to simulated future greenhouse warming10, 11, 12, but how La Niña will change remains unclear. Here we present climate modelling evidence, from simulations conducted for the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project phase 5 (ref. 13), for a near doubling in the frequency of future extreme La Niña events, from one in every 23 years to one in every 13 years. This occurs because projected faster mean warming of the Maritime continent than the central Pacific, enhanced upper ocean vertical temperature gradients, and increased frequency of extreme El Niño events are conducive to development of the extreme La Niña events. Approximately 75% of the increase occurs in years following extreme El Niño events, thus projecting more frequent swings between opposite extremes from one year to the next.

Interannual-decadal variability of wintertime mixed layer depths in the North Pacific detected by an ensemble of ocean syntheses

The interannual-decadal variability of the wintertime mixed layer depths (MLDs) over the North Pacific is investigated from an empirical orthogonal function (EOF) analysis of an ensemble of global ocean reanalyses. The first leading EOF mode represents the interannual MLD anomalies centered in the eastern part of the central mode water formation region in phase opposition with those in the eastern subtropics and the central Alaskan Gyre. This first EOF mode is highly correlated with the Pacific decadal oscillation index on both the interannual and decadal time scales. The second leading EOF mode represents the MLD variability in the subtropical mode water (STMW) formation region and has a good correlation with the wintertime West Pacific (WP) index with time lag of 3 years, suggesting the importance of the oceanic dynamical response to the change in the surface wind field associated with the meridional shifts of the Aleutian Low. The above MLD variabilities are in basic agreement with previous observational and modeling findings. Moreover the reanalysis ensemble provides uncertainty estimates. The interannual MLD anomalies in the first and second EOF modes are consistently represented by the individual reanalyses and the amplitudes of the variabilities generally exceed the ensemble spread of the reanalyses. Besides, the resulting MLD variability indices, spanning the 1948–2012 period, should be helpful for characterizing the North Pacific climate variability. In particular, a 6-year oscillation including the WP teleconnection pattern in the atmosphere and the oceanic MLD variability in the STMW formation region is first detected.

Interdecadal changes on the seasonal prediction of the western North Pacific summer climate around the late 1970s and early 1990s

Identifying predictability and the corresponding sources for the western North Pacific (WNP) summer climate in the case of non-stationary teleconnections during recent decades benefits for further improvements of long-range prediction on the WNP and East Asian summers. In the past few decades, pronounced increases on the summer sea surface temperature (SST) and associated interannual variability are observed over the tropical Indian Ocean and eastern Pacific around the late 1970s and over the Maritime Continent and western–central Pacific around the early 1990s. These increases are associated with significant enhancements of the interannual variability for the lower-tropospheric wind over the WNP. In this study, we further assess interdecadal changes on the seasonal prediction of the WNP summer anomalies, using May-start retrospective forecasts from the ENSEMBLES multi-model project in the period 1960–2005. It is found that prediction of the WNP summer anomalies exhibits an interdecadal shift with higher prediction skills since the late 1970s, particularly after the early 1990s. Improvements of the prediction skills for SSTs after the late 1970s are mainly found around tropical Indian Ocean and the WNP. The better prediction of the WNP after the late 1970s may arise mainly from the improvement of the SST prediction around the tropical eastern Indian Ocean. The close teleconnections between the tropical eastern Indian Ocean and WNP summer variability work both in the model predictions and observations. After the early 1990s, on the other hand, the improvements are detected mainly around the South China Sea and Philippines for the lower-tropospheric zonal wind and precipitation anomalies, associating with a better description of the SST anomalies around the Maritime Continent. A dipole SST pattern over the Maritime Continent and the central equatorial Pacific Ocean is closely related to the WNP summer anomalies after the early 1990s. This teleconnection mode is quite predictable, which is realistically reproduced by the models, presenting more predictable signals to the WNP summer climate after the early 1990s.

The COnvective Precipitation Experiment (COPE): investigating the origins of heavy precipitation in the southwestern UK

A recent field campaign in southwest England used numerical modeling integrated with aircraft and radar observations to investigate the dynamic and microphysical interactions that can result in heavy convective precipitation. The COnvective Precipitation Experiment (COPE) was a joint UK-US field campaign held during the summer of 2013 in the southwest peninsula of England, designed to study convective clouds that produce heavy rain leading to flash floods. The clouds form along convergence lines that develop regularly due to the topography. Major flash floods have occurred in the past, most famously at Boscastle in 2004. It has been suggested that much of the rain was produced by warm rain processes, similar to some flash floods that have occurred in the US. The overarching goal of COPE is to improve quantitative convective precipitation forecasting by understanding the interactions of the cloud microphysics and dynamics and thereby to improve NWP model skill for forecasts of flash floods. Two research aircraft, the University of Wyoming King Air and the UK BAe 146, obtained detailed in situ and remote sensing measurements in, around, and below storms on several days. A new fast-scanning X-band dual-polarization Doppler radar made 360-deg volume scans over 10 elevation angles approximately every 5 minutes, and was augmented by two UK Met Office C-band radars and the Chilbolton S-band radar. Detailed aerosol measurements were made on the aircraft and on the ground. This paper: (i) provides an overview of the COPE field campaign and the resulting dataset; (ii) presents examples of heavy convective rainfall in clouds containing ice and also in relatively shallow clouds through the warm rain process alone; and (iii) explains how COPE data will be used to improve high-resolution NWP models for operational use.

Differentiation of neotropical ecosystems by modern soil phytolith assemblages and its implications for palaeoenvironmental and archaeological reconstructions II: Southwestern Amazonian forests

Accurate archaeological and palaeoenvironmental reconstructions using phytoliths relies on the study of modern reference material. In eastern Acre, Brazil, we examined whether the five most common forest types present today were able to be differentiated by their soil phytolith assemblages, and thus provide analogues with which to compare palaeoecological assemblages from pre-Columbian earthwork sites in the region. Surface soils and vegetation from dense humid evergreen forest, dense humid evergreen forest with high palm abundance, palm forest, bamboo forest and fluvial forest were sampled and their phytoliths analysed. Relative phytolith frequencies were statistically compared using Principal Components Analyses (PCAs). We found the major differences in species composition to be well-represented by the phytolith assemblages as all forest types, apart from the two sub-types of dense humid evergreen forest, could be differentiated. Larger phytoliths from the sand fraction were found to be more ecologically diagnostic than those from the silt fraction. The surface soil phytolith assemblages we analysed can therefore be used as analogues to improve the accuracy of archaeological and palaeoecological reconstructions in the region.

Glacial lake drainage in Patagonia (13-8 kyr) and response of the adjacent Pacific Ocean

Large freshwater lakes formed in North America and Europe during deglaciation following the Last Glacial Maximum. Rapid drainage of these lakes into the Oceans resulted in abrupt perturbations in climate, including the Younger Dryas and 8.2 kyr cooling events. In the mid-latitudes of the Southern Hemisphere major glacial lakes also formed and drained during deglaciation but little is known about the magnitude, organization and timing of these drainage events and their e ect on regional climate. We use 16 new single-grain optically stimulated luminescence (OSL) dates to de ne three stages of rapid glacial lake drainage in the Lago General Carrera/Lago Buenos Aires and Lago Cohrane/ Pueyrredón basins of Patagonia and provide the rst assessment of the e ects of lake drainage on the Paci c Ocean. Lake drainage occurred between 13 and 8 kyr ago and was initially gradual eastward into the Atlantic, then subsequently reorganized westward into the Paci c as new drainage routes opened up during Patagonian Ice Sheet deglaciation. Coupled ocean-atmosphere model experiments using HadCM3 with an imposed freshwater surface “hosing” to simulate glacial lake drainage suggest that a negative salinity anomaly was advected south around Cape Horn, resulting in brief but signi cant impacts on coastal ocean vertical mixing and regional climate.

The teleconnection of the tropical Atlantic to Indo-Pacific sea surface temperatures on inter-annual to centennial time scales: a review of recent findings

In this paper, the teleconnections from the tropical Atlantic to the Indo-Pacific region from inter-annual to centennial time scales will be reviewed. Identified teleconnections and hypotheses on mechanisms at work are reviewed and further explored in a century-long pacemaker coupled ocean-atmosphere simulation ensemble. There is a substantial impact of the tropical Atlantic on the Pacific region at inter-annual time scales. An Atlantic Niño (Niña) event leads to rising (sinking) motion in the Atlantic region, which is compensated by sinking (rising) motion in the central-western Pacific. The sinking (rising) motion in the central-western Pacific induces easterly (westerly) surface wind anomalies just to the west, which alter the thermocline. These perturbations propagate eastward as upwelling (downwelling) Kelvin-waves, where they increase the probability for a La Niña (El Niño) event. Moreover, tropical North Atlantic sea surface temperature anomalies are also able to lead La Niña/El Niño development. At multidecadal time scales, a positive (negative) Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation leads to a cooling (warming) of the eastern Pacific and a warming (cooling) of the western Pacific and Indian Ocean regions. The physical mechanism for this impact is similar to that at inter-annual time scales. At centennial time scales, the Atlantic warming induces a substantial reduction of the eastern Pacific warming even under CO2 increase and to a strong subsurface cooling.

An assessment of the latent and sensible heat flux on the simulated regional climate over Southwestern South Atlantic Ocean

A Regional Climate Model (RegCM3) 10-year (1990-1999) simulation over southwestern South Atlantic Ocean (SAO) is evaluated to assess the mean climatology and the simulation errors of turbulent fluxes over the sea. Moreover, the relationship between these fluxes and the rainfall over some cyclogenetic areas is also analyzed. The RegCM3 results are validated using some reanalyses datasets (ERA40, R2, GPCP and WHOI). The summer and winter spatial patterns of latent and sensible heat fluxes simulated by the RegCM3 are in agreement with the reanalyses (WHOI, R2 and ERA40). They show large latent heat fluxes exchange in the subtropical SAO and at higher latitudes in the warm waters of Brazil Current. In particular, the magnitude of RegCM3 latent heat fluxes is similar to the WHOI, which is probably related to two factors: (a) small specific humidity bias, and (b) the RegCM3 flux algorithm. In contrast, the RegCM3 presents large overestimation of sensible heat flux, though it simulates well their spatial pattern. This simulation error is associated with the RegCM3 underestimation of the 2-m air temperature. In southwestern SAO, in three known cyclogenetic areas, the reanalyses and the RegCM3 show the existence of different physical mechanisms that control the annual cycles of latent/sensible heating and rainfall. It is shown that over the eastern coast of Uruguay (35A degrees-43A degrees S) and the southeastern coast of Argentina (44A degrees-52A degrees S) the sea-air moisture and heat exchange play an important role to control the annual cycle of precipitation. This does not happen on the south/southeastern coast of Brazil.

Multiyear measurements of the oceanic and atmospheric boundary layers at the Brazil-Malvinas confluence region

This study analyzes and discusses data taken from oceanic and atmospheric measurements performed simultaneously at the Brazil-Malvinas Confluence (BMC) region in the southwestern Atlantic Ocean. This area is one of the most dynamical frontal regions of the world ocean. Data were collected during four research cruises in the region once a year in consecutive years between 2004 and 2007. Very few studies have addressed the importance of studying the air-sea coupling at the BMC region. Lateral temperature gradients at the study region were as high as 0.3 degrees C km(-1) at the surface and subsurface. In the oceanic boundary layer, the vertical temperature gradient reached 0.08 degrees C m(-1) at 500 m depth. Our results show that the marine atmospheric boundary layer (MABL) at the BMC region is modulated by the strong sea surface temperature (SST) gradients present at the sea surface. The mean MABL structure is thicker over the warmside of the BMC where Brazil Current (BC) waters predominate. The opposite occurs over the coldside of the confluence where waters from the Malvinas (Falkland) Current (MC) are found. The warmside of the confluence presented systematically higher MABL top height compared to the coldside. This type of modulation at the synoptic scale is consistent to what happens in other frontal regions of the world ocean, where the MABL adjusts itself to modifications along the SST gradients. Over warm waters at the BMC region, the MABL static instability and turbulence were increased while winds at the lower portion of the MABL were strong. Over the coldside of the BC/MC front an opposite behavior is found: the MABL is thinner and more stable. Our results suggest that the sea-level pressure (SLP) was also modulated locally, together with static stability vertical mixing mechanism, by the surface condition during all cruises. SST gradients at the BMC region modulate the synoptic atmospheric pressure gradient. Postfrontal and prefrontal conditions produce opposite thermal advections in the MABL that lead to different pressure intensification patterns across the confluence.

A new genus and new species of fan worms (Polychaeta: Sabellidae) from Atlantic and Pacific Oceans-the formal treatment of taxon names as explanatory hypotheses

Members of Parasabella minuta Treadwell, 1941, subsequently moved to Perkinsiana, were collected during a survey of rocky intertidal polychaetes along the state of Sao Paulo, Brazil. Additional specimens, which are referred to two new species, were also found in similar habitats from the Bocas del Toro Archipelago, Caribbean Panama, and Oahu Island, Hawaii. A phylogenetic analysis of Sabellinae, including members of P. minuta and the two new species, provided justification for establishing a new generic hypothesis, Sabellomma gen. nov., for these individuals. Formal definitions are also provided for Sabellomma minuta gen. nov., comb. nov., S. collinae gen. nov., spec. nov., and S. harrisae gen. nov., spec. nov., along with descriptions of individuals to which these hypotheses apply. The generic name Aracia nom. nov., is provided to replace Kirkia Nogueira, Lopez and Rossi, 2004, pre-occupied by a mollusk.

Non-random reef use by fishes at two dominant zones in a tropical, algal-dominated coastal reef

Habitat use and the processes which determine fish distribution were evaluated at the reef flat and reef crest zones of a tropical, algal-dominated reef. Our comparisons indicated significant differences in the majority of the evaluated environmental characteristics between zones. Also, significant differences in the abundances of twelve, from thirteen analyzed species, were observed within and between-sites. According to null models, non-random patterns of species co-occurrences were significant, suggesting that fish guilds in both zones were non-randomly structured. Unexpectedly, structural complexity negatively affected overall species richness, but had a major positive influence on highly site-attached species such as a damselfish. Depth and substrate composition, particularly macroalgae cover, were positive determinants for the fish assemblage structure in the studied reef, prevailing over factors such as structural complexity and live coral cover. Our results are conflicting with other studies carried out in coral-dominated reefs of the Caribbean and Pacific, therefore supporting the idea that the factors which may potentially influence reef fish composition are highly site-dependent and variable.

30 million years of Permian volcanism recorded in the Choiyoi igneous province (W Argentina) and their source for younger ash fall deposits in the Parana Basin: SHRIMP U-Pb zircon geochronology evidence

We present four SHRIMP U-Pb zircon ages for the Choiyoi igneous province from the San Rafael Block, central-western Argentina. Dated samples come from the Yacimiento Los Reyunos Formation (281.4 +/- 2.5 Ma) of the Cochico Group (Lower Choiyoi section: andesitic breccias, dacitic to rhyolitic ignimbrites and continental conglomerates). Agua de los Burros Formation (264.8 +/- 2.3 Ma and 264.5 +/- 3.0 Ma) and Cerro Carrizalito Formation (251.9 +/- 2.7 Ma Upper Choiyoi section: rhyolitic ignimbrites and pyroclastic flows) spanning the entire Permian succession of the Choiyoi igneous province. A single ziron from the El Imperial Formation, that is overlain unconformably by the Choiyoi succession, yielded an early Permian age (297.2 +/- 5.3 Ma). while the main detrital zircon population indicated an Ordovician age (453.7 +/- 8.1 Ma). The new data establishes a more precise Permian age (Artinskian-Lopingian) for the section studied spanning 30 Ma of volcanic activity. Volcanological observations for the Choiyoi succession support the occurrence of explosive eruptions of plinian to ultraplinian magnitudes, capable of injecting enormous volumes of tephra in the troposphere-stratosphere. The new SHRIMP ages indicate contemporaneity between the Choyoi succession and the upper part of the Parana Basin late Paleozoic section, from the Irad up to the Rio do Rasto formations, encompassing about 24 Ma. Geochemical data show a general congruence in compositional and tectonic settings between the volcanics and Parana Basin Permian ash fall derived layers of bentonites. Thickness and granulometry of ash fall layers broadly fit into the depletion curve versus distance from the remote source vent of ultraplinian eruptions. Thus, we consider that the Choiyoi igneous province was the source of ash fall deposits in the upper Permian section of the Parana Basin. Data presented here allow a more consistent correlation between tectono-volcanic Permian events along the paleo-Pacific margin of southwestern Gondwana and the geological evolution of neighboring Paleozoic foreland basins in South America and Africa. (C) 2010 International Association for Gondwana Research. Published by Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

The Guarguaraz Complex and the Neoproterozoic-Cambrian evolution of southwestern Gondwana: Geochemical signatures and geochronological constraints

The Guarguaraz Complex, in western Argentina, comprises a metasedimentary assemblage, associated with mafic sills and ultramafic bodies intruded by basaltic dikes, which are interpreted as Ordovician dismembered ophiolites. Two kinds of dikes are recognized, a group associated with the metasediments and the other ophiolite-related. Both have N-MORB signatures, with epsilon(Nd) between +3.5 and +8.2, indicating a depleted source, and Grenville model ages between 0.99 and 1.62 Ga. A whole-rock Sm-Nd isochron yielded an age of 655 +/- 76 Ma for these mafic rocks, which is compatible with cianobacteria and acritarchae recognized in the clastic metasedimentary platform sequences, that indicate a Neoproterozoic (Vendian)-Cambrian age of deposition. The Guarguaraz metasedimentary-ophiolitic complex represents, therefore, a remnant of an oceanic basin developed to the west of the Grenville-aged Cuyania terrane during the Neoproterozoic. The southernmost extension of these metasedimentary sequences in Cordon del Portillo might represent part of this platform and not fragments of the Chilenia terrane. An extensional event related to the fragmentation of Rodinia is represented by the mafic and ultramafic rocks. The Devonian docking of Chilenia emplaced remnants of ocean floor and slices of the Cuyania terrane (Las Yaretas Gneisses) in tectonic contact with the Neoproterozoic metasediments, marking the Devonian western border of Gondwana. (C) 2009 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Mafic dykes at the southwestern margin of Eastern Ghats belt: Evidence of rifting and collision

The southwestern margin of the Eastern Ghats Belt characteristically exposes mafic dykes intruding massif-type charnockites. Dykes of olivine basalt of alkaline composition have characteristic trace element signatures comparable with Ocean Island Basalt (OIB). Most importantly strong positive Nb anomaly and low values of Zr/Nb ratio are consistent with OIB source of the mafic dykes. K-Ar isotopic data indicate two cooling ages at 740 and 530 Ma. The Pan-African thermal event could be related to reactivation of major shear zones and represented by leuco-granite vein along minor shear bands. And 740 Ma cooling age may indicate the low grade metamorphic imprints, noted in some of the dykes. Although no intrusion age could be determined from the present dataset, it could be constrained by some age data of the host charnockite gneiss and Alkaline rocks of the adjacent Prakasam Province. Assuming an intrusion age of similar to 1.3 Ga, Sr-Nd isotopic composition of the dykes indicate that they preserved time-integrated LREE enrichment. In view of the chemical signatures of OIB source, the mafic dykes could as well be related to continental rifting, around 1.3 Ga, which may have been initiated by intra-plate volcanism.