Development of modelling method selection tool for health services management: From problem structuring methods to modelling and simulation methods

Background: There is an increasing recognition that modelling and simulation can assist in the process of designing health care policies, strategies and operations. However, the current use is limited and answers to questions such as what methods to use and when remain somewhat underdeveloped. Aim. The aim of this study is to provide a mechanism for decision makers in health services planning and management to compare a broad range of modelling and simulation methods so that they can better select and use them or better commission relevant modelling and simulation work. Methods. This paper proposes a modelling and simulation method comparison and selection tool developed from a comprehensive literature review, the research team's extensive expertise and inputs from potential users. Twenty-eight different methods were identified, characterised by their relevance to different application areas, project life cycle stages, types of output and levels of insight, and four input resources required (time, money, knowledge and data). Results: The characterisation is presented in matrix forms to allow quick comparison and selection. This paper also highlights significant knowledge gaps in the existing literature when assessing the applicability of particular approaches to health services management, where modelling and simulation skills are scarce let alone money and time. Conclusions: A modelling and simulation method comparison and selection tool is developed to assist with the selection of methods appropriate to supporting specific decision making processes. In particular it addresses the issue of which method is most appropriate to which specific health services management problem, what the user might expect to be obtained from the method, and what is required to use the method. In summary, we believe the tool adds value to the scarce existing literature on methods comparison and selection. © 2011 Jun et al.

Neuro-Fuzzy genetic system for selection of construction project managers

Choosing a project manager for a construction project—particularly, large projects—is a critical project decision. The selection process involves different criteria and should be in accordance with company policies and project specifications. Traditionally, potential candidates are interviewed and the most qualified are selected in compliance with company priorities and project conditions. Precise computing models that could take various candidates’ information into consideration and then pinpoint the most qualified person with a high degree of accuracy would be beneficial. On the basis of the opinions of experienced construction company managers, this paper, through presenting a fuzzy system, identifies the important criteria in selecting a project manager. The proposed fuzzy system is based on IF-THEN rules; a genetic algorithm improves the overall accuracy as well as the functions used by the fuzzy system to make initial estimates of the cluster centers for fuzzy c-means clustering. Moreover, a back-propagation neutral network method was used to train the system. The optimal measures of the inference parameters were identified by calculating the system’s output error and propagating this error within the system. After specifying the system parameters, the membership function parameters—which by means of clustering and projection were approximated—were tuned with the genetic algorithm. Results from this system in selecting project managers show its high capability in making high-quality personnel predictions

Optimized selection of key frames for monocular videogrammetric surveying of civil infrastructure

Videogrammetry is an inexpensive and easy-to-use technology for spatial 3D scene recovery. When applied to large scale civil infrastructure scenes, only a small percentage of the collected video frames are required to achieve robust results. However, choosing the right frames requires careful consideration. Videotaping a built infrastructure scene results in large video files filled with blurry, noisy, or redundant frames. This is due to frame rate to camera speed ratios that are often higher than necessary; camera and lens imperfections and limitations that result in imaging noise; and occasional jerky motions of the camera that result in motion blur; all of which can significantly affect the performance of the videogrammetric pipeline. To tackle these issues, this paper proposes a novel method for automating the selection of an optimized number of informative, high quality frames. According to this method, as the first step, blurred frames are removed using the thresholds determined based on a minimum level of frame quality required to obtain robust results. Then, an optimum number of key frames are selected from the remaining frames using the selection criteria devised by the authors. Experimental results show that the proposed method outperforms existing methods in terms of improved 3D reconstruction results, while maintaining the optimum number of extracted frames needed to generate high quality 3D point clouds.© 2012 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Beyond niche thinking: Market selection in science-based ventures

Matching a new technology to an appropriate market is a major challenge for new technology-based firms (NTBF). Such firms are often advised to target niche-markets where the firms and their technologies can establish themselves relatively free of incumbent competition. However, technologies are diverse in nature and do not benefit from identical strategies. In contrast to many Information and Communication Technology (ICT) innovations which build on an established knowledge base for fairly specific applications, technologies based on emerging science are often generic and so have a number of markets and applications open to them, each carrying considerable technological and market uncertainty. Each of these potential markets is part of a complex and evolving ecosystem from which the venture may have to access significant complementary assets in order to create and sustain commercial value. Based on dataset and case study research on UK advanced material university spin-outs (USO), we find that, contrary to conventional wisdom, the more commercially successful ventures were targeting mainstream markets by working closely with large, established competitors during early development. While niche markets promise protection from incumbent firms, science-based innovations, such as new materials, often require the presence, and participation, of established companies in order to create value. © 2012 IEEE.

Gaussian Approximation Potential: an interatomic potential derived from first principles Quantum Mechanics

Simulation of materials at the atomistic level is an important tool in studying microscopic structure and processes. The atomic interactions necessary for the simulation are correctly described by Quantum Mechanics. However, the computational resources required to solve the quantum mechanical equations limits the use of Quantum Mechanics at most to a few hundreds of atoms and only to a small fraction of the available configurational space. This thesis presents the results of my research on the development of a new interatomic potential generation scheme, which we refer to as Gaussian Approximation Potentials. In our framework, the quantum mechanical potential energy surface is interpolated between a set of predetermined values at different points in atomic configurational space by a non-linear, non-parametric regression method, the Gaussian Process. To perform the fitting, we represent the atomic environments by the bispectrum, which is invariant to permutations of the atoms in the neighbourhood and to global rotations. The result is a general scheme, that allows one to generate interatomic potentials based on arbitrary quantum mechanical data. We built a series of Gaussian Approximation Potentials using data obtained from Density Functional Theory and tested the capabilities of the method. We showed that our models reproduce the quantum mechanical potential energy surface remarkably well for the group IV semiconductors, iron and gallium nitride. Our potentials, while maintaining quantum mechanical accuracy, are several orders of magnitude faster than Quantum Mechanical methods.

First-principles energetics of water: a many-body analysis

Standard forms of density-functional theory (DFT) have good predictive power for many materials, but are not yet fully satisfactory for solid, liquid and cluster forms of water. We use a many-body separation of the total energy into its 1-body, 2-body (2B) and beyond-2-body (B2B) components to analyze the deficiencies of two popular DFT approximations. We show how machine-learning methods make this analysis possible for ice structures as well as for water clusters. We find that the crucial energy balance between compact and extended geometries can be distorted by 2B and B2B errors, and that both types of first-principles error are important.

Development of accurate, robust liquid equations of state for multi-phase CFD simulations with a modified AUSM+-up scheme

Eight equations of state (EOS) have been evaluated for the simulation of compressible liquid water properties, based on empirical correlations, the principle of corresponding states and thermodynamic relations. The IAPWS-IF97 EOS for water was employed as the reference case. These EOSs were coupled to a modified AUSM+-up convective flux solver to determine flow profiles for three test cases of differing flow conditions. The impact of the non-viscous interaction term discretisation scheme, interfacial pressure method and selection of low-Mach number diffusion were also compared. It was shown that a consistent discretisation scheme using the AUSM+-up solver for both the convective flux and the non-viscous interfacial term demonstrated both robustness and accuracy whilst facilitating a computationally cheaper solution than discretisation of the interfacial term independently by a central scheme. The simple empirical correlations gave excellent results in comparison to the reference IAPWS-IF97 EOS and were recommended for developmental work involving water as a cheaper and more accurate EOS than the more commonly used stiffened-gas model. The correlations based on the principles of corresponding-states and the modified Peng-Robinson cubic EOS also demonstrated a high degree of accuracy, which is promising for future work with generic fluids. Further work will encompass extension of the solver to multiple dimensions and to account for other source terms such as surface tension, along with the incorporation of phase changes. © 2013.