The Bayesian conditional independence model for measurement error: applications in ecology

The measurement error model is a well established statistical method for regression problems in medical sciences, although rarely used in ecological studies. While the situations in which it is appropriate may be less common in ecology, there are instances in which there may be benefits in its use for prediction and estimation of parameters of interest. We have chosen to explore this topic using a conditional independence model in a Bayesian framework using a Gibbs sampler, as this gives a great deal of flexibility, allowing us to analyse a number of different models without losing generality. Using simulations and two examples, we show how the conditional independence model can be used in ecology, and when it is appropriate.

An examination of monotony and hypovigilance, independent of fatigue : relevance to road safety

Driving is a vigilance task, requiring sustained attention to maintain performance and avoid crashes. Hypovigilance (i.e., marked reduction in vigilance) while driving manifests as poor driving performance and is commonly attributed to fatigue (Dinges, 1995). However, poor driving performance has been found to be more frequent when driving in monotonous road environments, suggesting that monotony plays a role in generating hypovigilance (Thiffault & Bergeron, 2003b). Research to date has tended to conceptualise monotony as a uni-dimensional task characteristic, typically used over a prolonged period of time to facilitate other factors under investigation, most notably fatigue. However, more often than not, more than one exogenous factor relating to the task or operating environment is manipulated to vary or generate monotony (Mascord & Heath, 1992). Here we aimed to explore whether monotony is a multi-dimensional construct that is determined by characteristics of both the task proper and the task environment. The general assumption that monotony is a task characteristic used solely to elicit hypovigilance or poor performance related to fatigue appears to have led to there being little rigorous investigation into the exact nature of the relationship. While the two concepts are undoubtedly linked, the independent effect of monotony on hypovigilance remains largely ignored. Notwithstanding, there is evidence that monotony effects can emerge very early in vigilance tasks and are not necessarily accompanied by fatigue (see Meuter, Rakotonirainy, Johns, & Wagner, 2005). This phenomenon raises a largely untested, empirical question explored in two studies: Can hypovigilance emerge as a consequence of task and/or environmental monotony, independent of time on task and fatigue? In Study 1, using a short computerised vigilance task requiring responses to be withheld to infrequent targets, we explored the differential impacts of stimuli and task demand manipulations on the development of a monotonous context and the associated effects on vigilance performance (as indexed by respone errors and response times), independent of fatigue and time on task. The role of individual differences (sensation seeking, extroversion and cognitive failures) in moderating monotony effects was also considered. The results indicate that monotony affects sustained attention, with hypovigilance and associated performance worse in monotonous than in non-monotonous contexts. Critically, performance decrements emerged early in the task (within 4.3 minutes) and remained consistent over the course of the experiment (21.5 minutes), suggesting that monotony effects can operate independent of time on task and fatigue. A combination of low task demands and low stimulus variability form a monotonous context characterised by hypovigilance and poor task performance. Variations to task demand and stimulus variability were also found to independently affect performance, suggesting that monotony is a multi-dimensional construct relating to both task monotony (associated with the task itself) and environmental monotony (related to characteristics of the stimulus). Consequently, it can be concluded that monotony is multi-dimensional and is characterised by low variability in stimuli and/or task demands. The proposition that individual differences emerge under conditions of varying monotony with high sensation seekers and/or extroverts performing worse in monotonous contexts was only partially supported. Using a driving simulator, the findings of Study 1 were extended to a driving context to identify the behavioural and psychophysiological indices of monotony-related hypovigilance associated with variations to road design and road side scenery (Study 2). Supporting the proposition that monotony is a multi-dimensional construct, road design variability emerged as a key moderating characteristic of environmental monotony, resulting in poor driving performance indexed by decrements in steering wheel measures (mean lateral position). Sensation seeking also emerged as a moderating factor, where participants high in sensation seeking tendencies displayed worse driving behaviour in monotonous conditions. Importantly, impaired driving performance was observed within 8 minutes of commencing the driving task characterised by environmental monotony (low variability in road design) and was not accompanied by a decline in psychophysiological arousal. In addition, no subjective declines in alertness were reported. With fatigue effects associated with prolonged driving (van der Hulst, Meijman, & Rothengatter, 2001) and indexed by drowsiness, this pattern of results indicates that monotony can affect driver vigilance, independent of time on task and fatigue. Perceptual load theory (Lavie, 1995, 2005) and mindlessness theory (Robertson, Manly, Andrade, Baddley, & Yiend, 1997) provide useful theoretical frameworks for explaining and predicting monotony effects by positing that the low load (of task and/or stimuli) associated with a monotonous task results in spare attentional capacity which spills over involuntarily, resulting in the processing of task-irrelevant stimuli or task unrelated thoughts. That is, individuals – even when not fatigued - become easily distracted when performing a highly monotonous task, resulting in hypovigilance and impaired performance. The implications for road safety, including the likely effectiveness of fatigue countermeasures to mitigate monotony-related driver hypovigilance are discussed.

Towards a CRM and SCM Benefits Measurement Model

Organizations invest heavily in Customer Relationship Management (CRM) and Supply Chain Management (SCM) systems, and their related infrastructure, presumably expecting positive benefits to the organization. Assessing the benefits of such systems is an important aspect of managing such systems. Given the substantial differences between CRM and SCM systems with traditional intra-organizational applications, existing Information Systems benefits measurement models and frameworks are ill-suited to gauge CRM and SCM benefits. This paper reports the preliminary findings of a research that seeks to develop a measurement model to assess benefits of CRM and SCM applications. The a-priori benefits measurement model is developed reviewing the 55 academic studies and 40 practitioner papers. The review of related literature yielded 606 benefits, which were later synthesized into 74 mutually exclusive benefit measures of CRM and SCM applications arranged under five dimensions.

Theorising a model for teaching and assessing reflective learning in higher education

The importance of reflection in higher education, and across disciplinary fields is widely recognised; it is generally included in university graduate attributes, professional standards and program objectives. Furthermore, reflection is commonly embedded into assessment requirements in higher education subjects, often without necessary scaffolding or clear expectations for students. Despite the rhetoric around the importance of reflection for ongoing learning, there is scant literature on any systematic, developmental approach to teaching reflective learning across higher education programs/courses. Given that professional or academic reflection is not intuitive, and requires specific pedagogic intervention to do well, a program/course-wide approach is essential. This paper draws on current literature to theorise a new, transferable and customisable model for teaching and assessing reflective learning across higher education, which foregrounds and explains the pedagogic field of higher education as a multi-dimensional space. We argue that explicit and strategic pedagogic intervention, supported by dynamic resources, is necessary for successful, broad-scale approaches to reflection in higher education.

Melanoma mouse model implicates metabotropic glutamate signaling in melanocytic neoplasia

To gain insight into melanoma pathogenesis, we characterized an insertional mouse mutant, TG3, that is predisposed to develop multiple melanomas. Physical mapping identified multiple tandem insertions of the transgene into intron 3 of Grm1 (encoding metabotropic glutamate receptor 1) with concomitant deletion of 70 kb of intronic sequence. To assess whether this insertional mutagenesis event results in alteration of transcriptional regulation, we analyzed Grm1 and two flanking genes for aberrant expression in melanomas from TG3 mice. We observed aberrant expression of only Grm1. Although we did not detect its expression in normal mouse melanocytes, Grm1 was ectopically expressed in the melanomas from TG3 mice. To confirm the involvement of Grm1 in melanocytic neoplasia, we created an additional transgenic line with Grm1 expression driven by the dopachrome tautomerase promoter. Similar to the original TG3, the Tg(Grm1)EPv line was susceptible to melanoma. In contrast to human melanoma, these transgenic mice had a generalized hyperproliferation of melanocytes with limited transformation to fully malignant metastasis. We detected expression of GRM1 in a number of human melanoma biopsies and cell lines but not in benign nevi and melanocytes. This study provides compelling evidence for the importance of metabotropic glutamate signaling in melanocytic neoplasia.

Designing university, government and industry community engagement to build informed and effective interventions in the area of road safety

Individuals, community organisations and industry have always been involved to varying degrees in efforts to address the Queensland road toll. Traditionally, road crash prevention efforts have been led by state and local government organisations. While community and industry groups have sometimes become involved (e.g. Driver Reviver campaign), their efforts have largely been uncoordinated and under-resourced. A common strength of these initiatives lies in the energy, enthusiasm and persistence of community-based efforts. Conversely, a weakness has sometimes been the lack of knowledge, awareness or prioritisation of evidence-based interventions or their capacity to build on collaborative efforts. In 2000, the Queensland University of Technology’s Centre for Accident Research and Road Safety – Queensland (CARRS-Q) identified this issue as an opportunity to bridge practice and research and began acknowledging a selection of these initiatives, in partnership with the RACQ, through the Queensland Road Safety Awards program. After nine years it became apparent there was need to strengthen this connection, with the Centre establishing a Community Engagement Workshop in 2009 as part of the overall Awards program. With an aim of providing community participants opportunities to see, hear and discuss the experiences of others, this event was further developed in 2010, and with the collaboration of the Queensland Department of Transport and Main Roads, the RACQ, Queensland Police Service and Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd, a stand-alone Queensland Road Safety Awards Community Engagement Workshop was held in 2010. Each collaborating organisation recognised a need to mobilise the community through effective information and knowledge sharing, and recognised that learning and discussion can influence lasting behaviour change and action in this often emotive, yet not always evidence-based, area. This free event featured a number of speakers representing successful projects from around Australia and overseas. Attendees were encouraged to interact with the speakers, to ask questions, and most importantly, build connections with other attendees to build a ‘community road safety army’ all working throughout Australia on projects underpinned by evaluated research. The workshop facilitated the integration of research, policy and grass-roots action enhancing the success of community road safety initiatives. For collaboration partners, the event enabled them to transfer their knowledge in an engaged approach, working within a more personal communication process. An analysis of the success factors for this event identified openness to community groups and individuals, relevance of content to local initiatives, generous support with the provision of online materials and ongoing communication with key staff members as critical and supports the view that the university can directly provide both the leadership and the research needed for effective and credible community-based initiatives to address injury and death on the roads.

Is there an App for that? : social media uses for road safety

The use of social media has increased dramatically in recent years in the areas of public health and injury prevention, with many organisations creating online and social media content. Despite the adoption of such media by modern society, research relating to the design and evaluation of social media for the promotion of health issues is very much in its infancy. A timely review of the available evidence in relation to the use of social media campaigns from both the road safety and broader public health context will be undertaken. In particular, this paper will address the questions of what social media should be developed, how it should be evaluated, as well as what should be the key measures of success and to what extent do these measures relate to practically significant outcomes, such as behaviour change. Much like more traditional media campaigns, social media may be best regarded as another approach within the array of potential approaches that a health advertising researcher or practitioner may utilise. With younger demographics becoming less likely to engage with more traditional advertising mediums relative to their preference for social media, social media‟s most important role in the road safety advertising context may be to offer the means of delivering road safety messages to high risk, younger road users.

Exploring the parameter space of a rabbit ventricular action potential model to investigate the effect of variation on action potential and calcium transients

Computational models for cardiomyocyte action potentials (AP) often make use of a large parameter set. This parameter set can contain some elements that are fitted to experimental data independently of any other element, some elements that are derived concurrently with other elements to match experimental data, and some elements that are derived purely from phenomenological fitting to produce the desired AP output. Furthermore, models can make use of several different data sets, not always derived for the same conditions or even the same species. It is consequently uncertain whether the parameter set for a given model is physiologically accurate. Furthermore, it is only recently that the possibility of degeneracy in parameter values in producing a given simulation output has started to be addressed. In this study, we examine the effects of varying two parameters (the L-type calcium current (I(CaL)) and the delayed rectifier potassium current (I(Ks))) in a computational model of a rabbit ventricular cardiomyocyte AP on both the membrane potential (V(m)) and calcium (Ca(2+)) transient. It will subsequently be determined if there is degeneracy in this model to these parameter values, which will have important implications on the stability of these models to cell-to-cell parameter variation, and also whether the current methodology for generating parameter values is flawed. The accuracy of AP duration (APD) as an indicator of AP shape will also be assessed.

Parameter estimation for a phenomenological model of the cardiac action potential

The action potential (ap) of a cardiac cell is made up of a complex balance of ionic currents which flow across the cell membrane in response to electrical excitation of the cell. Biophysically detailed mathematical models of the ap have grown larger in terms of the variables and parameters required to model new findings in subcellular ionic mechanisms. The fitting of parameters to such models has seen a large degree of parameter and module re-use from earlier models. An alternative method for modelling electrically exciteable cardiac tissue is a phenomenological model, which reconstructs tissue level ap wave behaviour without subcellular details. A new parameter estimation technique to fit the morphology of the ap in a four variable phenomenological model is presented. An approximation of a nonlinear ordinary differential equation model is established that corresponds to the given phenomenological model of the cardiac ap. The parameter estimation problem is converted into a minimisation problem for the unknown parameters. A modified hybrid Nelder–Mead simplex search and particle swarm optimization is then used to solve the minimisation problem for the unknown parameters. The successful fitting of data generated from a well known biophysically detailed model is demonstrated. A successful fit to an experimental ap recording that contains both noise and experimental artefacts is also produced. The parameter estimation method’s ability to fit a complex morphology to a model with substantially more parameters than previously used is established.

Hypothetical model of hydrophilic lubrication in synovial joints

This paper presents a new insight into the mechanism of biolubrication of articulating mammalian joints that includes the function of surface-active phospholipids (SAPLs). SAPLs can be adsorbed on surface of cartilage membranes as a hydrophobic monolayer (H-phobic-M Madel or Hills' Model) or as a newly proposed hydrophilic bilayer (H-philic-B Model). With respect to the synovial joint's frictionless work, three processes are identified namely: monolayer/bilayer phospholipids binding to cartilage with lubricin interaction; influence of induced-pressure on interaction of hyaluronan with phospholipids; and biolubrication arising from two gliding articular hydrophilic surfaces acting as reverse micelle. Lubricin is considered to play critical role as a supplier of phospholipids, which overlay the articular surface of articular cartilage. Hyaluronic acid is considered to play a critical mediating role in the interaction between the hydrophilic part of phospholipids, the articular surface and water (hydration) in facilitating the lubrication process. Tivo models of frictionless lubrication processes, namely hydrophobic (H-phobic-M Model) and our conceptual hydrophilic (H-philic-B Model), are compared. © Institution of Engineers Australia, 2008.

SAP webflow made configurable: unifying workflow templates into a configurable model

To facilitate the implementation of workflows, enterprise and workflow system vendors typically provide workflow templates for their software. Each of these templates depicts a variant of how the software supports a certain business process, allowing the user to save the effort of creating models and links to system components from scratch by selecting and activating the appropriate template. A combination of the strengths from different templates is however only achievable by manually adapting the templates which is cumbersome. We therefore suggest in this paper to combine different workflow templates into a single configurable workflow template. Using the workflow modeling language of SAP’s WebFlow engine, we show how such a configurable workflow modeling language can be created by identifying the configurable elements in the original language. Requirements imposed on configurations inhibit invalid configurations. Based on a default configuration such configurable templates can be used as easy as the traditional templates. The suggested approach is also applicable to other workflow modeling languages

A continuous time model for election timing

We consider a continuous time model for election timing in a Majoritarian Parliamentary System where the government maintains a constitutional right to call an early election. Our model is based on the two-party-preferred data that measure the popularity of the government and the opposition over time. We describe the poll process by a Stochastic Differential Equation (SDE) and use a martingale approach to derive a Partial Differential Equation (PDE) for the government’s expected remaining life in office. A comparison is made between a three-year and a four-year maximum term and we also provide the exercise boundary for calling an election. Impacts on changes in parameters in the SDE, the probability of winning the election and maximum terms on the call exercise boundaries are discussed and analysed. An application of our model to the Australian Federal Election for House of Representatives is also given.

A mathematical model for genetic regulation of the lactose operon

In this paper we construct a mathematical model for the genetic regulatory network of the lactose operon. This mathematical model contains transcription and translation of the lactose permease (LacY) and a reporter gene GFP. The probability of transcription of LacY is determined by 14 binding states out of all 50 possible binding states of the lactose operon based on the quasi-steady-state assumption for the binding reactions, while we calculate the probability of transcription for the reporter gene GFP based on 5 binding states out of 19 possible binding states because the binding site O2 is missing for this reporter gene. We have tested different mechanisms for the transport of thio-methylgalactoside (TMG) and the effect of different Hill coefficients on the simulated LacY expression levels. Using this mathematical model we have realized one of the experimental results with different LacY concentrations, which are induced by different concentrations of TMG.