A review of the potential impacts of climate change on surface water quality

It is now accepted that some human-induced climate change is unavoidable. Potential impacts on water supply have received much attention, but relatively little is known about the concomitant changes in water quality. Projected changes in air temperature and rainfall could affect river flows and, hence, the mobility and dilution of contaminants. Increased water temperatures will affect chemical reaction kinetics and, combined with deteriorations in quality, freshwater ecological status. With increased flows there will be changes in stream power and, hence, sediment loads with the potential to alter the morphology of rivers and the transfer of sediments to lakes, thereby impacting freshwater habitats in both lake and stream systems. This paper reviews such impacts through the lens of UK surface water quality. Widely accepted climate change scenarios suggest more frequent droughts in summer, as well as flash-flooding, leading to uncontrolled discharges from urban areas to receiving water courses and estuaries. Invasion by alien species is highly likely, as is migration of species within the UK adapting to changing temperatures and flow regimes. Lower flows, reduced velocities and, hence, higher water residence times in rivers and lakes will enhance the potential for toxic algal blooms and reduce dissolved oxygen levels. Upland streams could experience increased dissolved organic carbon and colour levels, requiring action at water treatment plants to prevent toxic by-products entering public water supplies. Storms that terminate drought periods will flush nutrients from urban and rural areas or generate acid pulses in acidified upland catchments. Policy responses to climate change, such as the growth of bio-fuels or emission controls, will further impact freshwater quality.

Variability in the summer season hydrological cycle over the Atlantic-Europe region 1979-2007

Variability in aspects of the hydrological cycle over the Europe-Atlantic region during the summer season is analysed for the period 1979-2007, using observational estimates, reanalyses and climate model simulations. Warming and moistening trends are evident in observations and models although decadal changes in water vapour are not well represented by reanalyses, including the new European Centre for Medium Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) Interim reanalysis. Over the north Atlantic and northern Europe, observed water vapour trends are close to that expected from the temperature trends and Clausius-Clapeyron equation (7% K-1), larger than the model simulations. Precipitation over Europe is dominated by large-scale dynamics with positive phases of the North Atlantic Oscillation coinciding with drier conditions over north Europe and wetter conditions over the Mediterranean region. Evaporation trends over Europe are positive in reanalyses and models, especially for the Mediterranean region (1-3% per decade in reanalyses and climate models). Over the north Atlantic, declining precipitation combined with increased moisture contributed to an apparent rise in water vapour residence time. Maximum precipitation minus evaporation over the north Atlantic occurred during summer 1991, declining thereafter.

Solute movement through intact columns of cryoturbated Upper Chalk

Cryoturbated Upper Chalk is a dichotomous porous medium wherein the intra-fragment porosity provides water storage and the inter-fragment porosity provides potential pathways for relatively rapid flow near saturation. Chloride tracer movement through 43 cm long and 45 cm diameter undisturbed chalk columns was studied at water application rates of 0.3, 1.0, and 1.5 cm h(-1). Microscale heterogeneity in effluent was recorded using a grid collection system consisting of 98 funnel-shaped cells each 3.5 cm in diameter. The total porosity of the columns was 0.47 +/- 0.02 m(3) m(-3), approximately 13% of pores were >15 mu m diameter, and the saturated hydraulic conductivity was 12.66 +/- 1.31 m day(-1). Although the column remained unsaturated during the leaching even at all application rates, proportionate flow through macropores increased as the application rate decreased. The number of dry cells (with 0 ml of effluent) increased as application rate decreased. Half of the leachate was collected from 15, 19 and 22 cells at 0.3, 1.0, 1.5 cm h(-1) application rates respectively. Similar breakthrough curves (BTCs) were obtained at all three application rates when plotted as a function of cumulative drainage, but they were distinctly different when plotted as a function of time. The BTCs indicate that the columns have similar drainage requirement irrespective of application rates, as the rise to the maxima (C/C-o) is almost similar. However, the time required to achieve that leaching requirement varies with application rates, and residence time was less in the case of a higher application rate. A two-region convection-dispersion model was used to describe the BTCs and fitted well (r(2) = 0.97-0-99). There was a linear relationship between dispersion coefficient and pore water velocity (correlation coefficient r = 0.95). The results demonstrate the microscale heterogeneity of hydrodynamic properties in the Upper Chalk. Copyright (C) 2007 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

Sensitivity analysis of a catchment-scale nitrogen model

There are now considerable expectations that semi-distributed models are useful tools for supporting catchment water quality management. However, insufficient attention has been given to evaluating the uncertainties inherent to this type of model, especially those associated with the spatial disaggregation of the catchment. The Integrated Nitrogen in Catchments model (INCA) is subjected to an extensive regionalised sensitivity analysis in application to the River Kennet, part of the groundwater-dominated upper Thames catchment, UK The main results are: (1) model output was generally insensitive to land-phase parameters, very sensitive to groundwater parameters, including initial conditions, and significantly sensitive to in-river parameters; (2) INCA was able to produce good fits simultaneously to the available flow, nitrate and ammonium in-river data sets; (3) representing parameters as heterogeneous over the catchment (206 calibrated parameters) rather than homogeneous (24 calibrated parameters) produced a significant improvement in fit to nitrate but no significant improvement to flow and caused a deterioration in ammonium performance; (4) the analysis indicated that calibrating the flow-related parameters first, then calibrating the remaining parameters (as opposed to calibrating all parameters together) was not a sensible strategy in this case; (5) even the parameters to which the model output was most sensitive suffered from high uncertainty due to spatial inconsistencies in the estimated optimum values, parameter equifinality and the sampling error associated with the calibration method; (6) soil and groundwater nutrient and flow data are needed to reduce. uncertainty in initial conditions, residence times and nitrogen transformation parameters, and long-term historic data are needed so that key responses to changes in land-use management can be assimilated. The results indicate the general, difficulty of reconciling the questions which catchment nutrient models are expected to answer with typically limited data sets and limited knowledge about suitable model structures. The results demonstrate the importance of analysing semi-distributed model uncertainties prior to model application, and illustrate the value and limitations of using Monte Carlo-based methods for doing so. (c) 2005 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Chlorophyll-a in the rivers of eastern England

Chlorophyll-a concentration variations are described for two major river basins in England, the Humber and the Thames and related to catchment characteristics and nutrient concentrations across a range of rural, agricultural and urban/industrial settings. For all the rivers there are strong seasonal variations, with concentrations peaking in the spring and summer time when biological activity is at its highest. However, there are large variations in the magnitude of the seasonal effects across the rivers. For the spring-summer low-flow periods, average concentrations of chlorophyll-a correlate with soluble reactive phosphor-us (SRP). Chlorophyll-a is also correlated with particulate nitrogen (PN), organic carbon (POC) and suspended sediments. However, the strongest relationships are with catchment area and flow, where two straight line relationships are observed. The results indicate the importance of residence times for determining planktonic growth within the rivers. This is also indicated by the lack of chlorophyll-a response to lowering of SRP concentrations in several of the rivers in the area due to phosphorus stripping of effluents at major sewage treatment works. A key control on chlorophyll-a concentration may be the input of canal and reservoir waters during the growing period: this too relates to issues of residence times. However, there may well be a complex series of factors influencing residence time across the catchments due to features such as inhomogeneous flow within the catchments, a fractal distribution of stream channels that leads to a distribution of residence times and differences in planktonic inoculation sources. Industrial pollution on the Aire and Calder seems to have affected the relationship of chlorophyll-a with PN and POC. The results are discussed in relation to the Water Framework Directive. (c) 2006 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Utilizing chromophoric dissolved organic matter measurements to derive export and reactivity of dissolved organic carbon exported to the Arctic Ocean: A case study of the Yukon River, Alaska

The quality and quantity of dissolved organic matter (DOM) exported by Arctic rivers is known to vary with hydrology and this exported material plays a fundamental role in the biogeochemical cycling of carbon at high latitudes. We highlight the potential of optical measurements to examine DOM quality across the hydrograph in Arctic rivers. Furthermore, we establish chromophoric DOM (CDOM) relationships to dissolved organic carbon (DOC) and lignin phenols in the Yukon River and model DOC and lignin loads from CDOM measurements, the former in excellent agreement with long-term DOC monitoring data. Intensive sampling across the historically under-sampled spring flush period highlights the importance of this time for total export of DOC and particularly lignin. Calculated riverine DOC loads to the Arctic Ocean show an increase from previous estimates, especially when new higher discharge data are incorporated. Increased DOC loads indicate decreased residence times for terrigenous DOM in the Arctic Ocean with important implications for the reactivity and export of this material to the Atlantic Ocean.

The climatic effects of the direct injection of water vapour into the stratosphere by large volcanic eruptions

We describe a novel mechanism that can significantly lower the amplitude of the climatic response to certain large volcanic eruptions and examine its impact with a coupled ocean-atmosphere climate model. If sufficiently large amounts of water vapour enter the stratosphere, a climatically significant amount of water vapour can be left over in the lower stratosphere after the eruption, even after sulphate aerosol formation. This excess stratospheric humidity warms the tropospheric climate, and acts to balance the climatic cooling induced by the volcanic aerosol, especially because the humidity anomaly lasts for a period that is longer than the residence time of aerosol in the stratosphere. In particular, northern hemisphere high latitude cooling is reduced in magnitude. We discuss this mechanism in the context of the discrepancy between the observed and modelled cooling following the Krakatau eruption in 1883. We hypothesize that moist coignimbrite plumes caused by pyroclastic flows travelling over ocean rather than land, resulting from an eruption close enough to the ocean, might provide the additional source of stratospheric water vapour.

Variation of the mixing state of Saharan dust particles with atmospheric transport

Mineral dust is an important aerosol species in the Earth’s atmosphere and has a major source within North Africa, of which the Sahara forms the major part. Aerosol Time of Flight Mass Spectrometry (ATOFMS) is first used to determine the mixing state of dust particles collected from the land surface in the Saharan region, showing low abundance of species such as nitrate and sulphate internally mixed with the dust mineral matrix. These data are then compared with the ATOFMS single particle mass spectra of Saharan dust particles detected in the marine atmosphere in the vicinity of the Cape Verde islands, which are further compared with those from particles with longer atmospheric residence sampled at a coastal station at Mace Head, Ireland. Saharan dust particles collected near the Cape Verde Islands showed increased internally mixed nitrate but no sulphate, whilst Saharan dust particles collected on the coast of Ireland showed a very high degree of internally mixed secondary species including nitrate, sulphate and methanesulphonate. This uptake of secondary species will change the pH and hygroscopic properties of the aerosol dust and thus can influence the budgets of other reactive gases, as well as influencing the radiative properties of the particles and the availability of metals for dissolution.

Sewage effluent clean-up reduces phosphorus but not phytoplankton in lowland chalk stream (River Kennet, UK) impacted by water mixing from adjacent canal

Information is provided on phosphorus in the River Kennet and the adjacent Kennet and Avon Canal in southern England to assess their interactions and the changes following phosphorus reductions in sewage treatment work (STW) effluent inputs. A step reduction in soluble reactive phosphorus (SRP) concentration within the effluent (5 to 13 fold) was observed from several STWs discharging to the river in the mid-2000s. This translated to over halving of SRP concentrations within the lower Kennet. Lower Kennet SRP concentrations change from being highest under base-flow to highest under storm-flow conditions. This represented a major shift from direct effluent inputs to a within-catchment source dominated system characteristic of the upper part to the catchment. Average SRP concentrations in the lower Kennet reduced over time towards the target for good water quality. Critically, there was no corresponding reduction in chlorophyll-a concentration, the waters remaining eutrophic when set against standards for lakes. Following the up gradient input of the main water and SRP source (Wilton Water), SRP concentrations in the canal reduced down gradient to below detection limits at times near its junction with the Kennet downstream. However, chlorophyll concentrations in the canal were in an order of magnitude higher than in the river. This probably resulted from long water residence times and higher temperatures promoting progressive algal and suspended sediment generations that consumed SRP. The canal acted as a point source for sediment, algae and total phosphorus to the river especially during the summer months when boat traffic disturbed the canal's bottom sediments and the locks were being regularly opened. The short-term dynamics of this transfer was complex. For the canal and the supply source at Wilton Water, conditions remained hypertrophic when set against standards for lakes even when SRP concentrations were extremely low.

Homogeneous and heterogeneous reactions of atmospheric mercury(II) with sulfur(IV)

Atmospheric models suggest that the reduction of Hg(II) to Hg(O) by S(W) prolongs the residence time of mercury. The redox reaction was investigated both in the aqueous phase (where the reductant is sulfite) and on particulate matter (where the reductant in SO2(g)). In both cases, one of the ultimate products is HgS. A mechanism is proposed involving formation of Hg(O) followed by mercury-induced disproportionation of SO2.

Long-term monounsaturated fatty acid diets reduce platelet aggregation in healthy young subjects

The aim of the present study was to compare the response of a range of atherogenic and thrombogenic risk markers to two dietary levels of saturated fatty acid (SFA) substitution with monounsaturated fatty acids (MUFA) in students living in a university hall of residence. Although the benefits of such diets have been reported for plasma lipoproteins in high-risk groups, more needs to be known about effects of more modest SFA-MUFA substitutions over the long term and in young healthy adults. In a parallel design over 16 weeks, fifty-one healthy young subjects were randomised to one of two diets: (1) a moderate-MUFA diet in which 16 g dietary SFA/100 g total fatty acids were substituted with MUFA (n 25); (2) a high-MUFA diet in which 33 g dietary SFA/100 g total fatty acids were substituted with MUFA (n 26). All subjects followed an 8-week run-in diet (reference diet), with a fatty acid composition close to the UK average values. There were no differences in plasma lipid responses between the two diets over 16 weeks of the study with similar reductions in total cholesterol (P<0.001) and LDL-cholesterol (P<0.01) in both groups; a small but significant reduction in HDL-cholesterol was also observed in both groups (P<0.01). Platelet responses to ADP (P<0.01) and arachidonic acid (P<0.05) differed with time on the two diets; at 16 weeks, platelet aggregatory response to ADP was significantly lower on the high-MUFA than the moderate-MUFA (P<0.01) diet; ADP responses were also significantly lower within this group at 8 (P< 0.05) and 16 (P< 0.01) weeks compared with baseline. There were no differences in fasting factor VII activity (factors VIII and VIIag), fibrinogen concentration or tissue-type plasminogen activator activity between the diets. There were no differences in postprandial factor VIII responses to a standard meal (area under the curve) between the diets after 16 weeks, but postprandial factor VIII response was lower than on the high-MUFA diet compared with baseline (P<0.01). In conclusion, a high-MUFA diet sustains potentially beneficial effects on platelet aggregation and postprandial activation of factor VII. Moderate or high substitution of MUFA for SFA achieves similar reductions in fasting blood lipids in young healthy subjects.

Colonic metabolism of dietary polyphenols: influence of structure on microbial fermentation products

The metabolism of chlorogenic acid., naringin, and rutin, representative members of three common families of dietary polyphenols, the hydroxycinnamates, the flavanones, and the flavonols, respectively, was studied in an in vitro mixed culture model of the human colonic microflora. Time- and concentration-dependent degradation of all three compounds was observed, which was associated with the following metabolic events after cleavage of the ester or glycosidic bond: reduction of the aliphatic double bond of the resulting hydroxycinnamate caffeic acid residue; dehydroxylation and ring fission of the heterocyclic C-ring of the resulting deglycosylated flavanone, naringenin, and of the deglycosylated flavonol, quercetin (which differed depending on the substitution). The metabolic events, their sequences, and major phenolic end products, as identified by GC-MS or LC-MS/MS, were elucidated from the structural characteristics of the investigated compounds. The major phenolic end products identified were 3-D-hydroxyphenyl)propionic acid for chlorogenic acid, 3-(4-hydroxyphenyl)-propionic acid and 3-phenylpropionic acid for naringin, and 3-hydroxyphenylacetic acid and 3-(3-hydroxyphenyl)-propionic acid for rutin. The degree of degradation of the compounds studied was significantly influenced by the substrate concentration as well as individual variations in the composition of the fecal flora. The results support extensive metabolism of dietary polyphenols in the colon, depending on substrate concentration and residence time, with resultant formation of simple phenolics, which can be considered biomarkers of colonic metabolism if subsequently absorbed. It is also apparent that a relatively small number of phenolic degradation products are formed in the colon from the diverse group of natural polyphenols. (C) 2003 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Achievement of dietary fatty acid intakes in long-term controlled intervention studies: approach and methodology

Objective: To describe the calculations and approaches used to design experimental diets of differing saturated fatty acid (SFA) and monounsaturated fatty acid (MUFA) compositions for use in a long-term dietary intervention study, and to evaluate the degree to which the dietary targets were met. Design, setting and subjects: Fifty-one students living in a university hall of residence consumed a reference (SFA) diet for 8 weeks followed by either a moderate MUFA (MM) diet or a high MUFA (HM) diet for 16 weeks. The three diets were designed to differ only in their proportions of SFA and MUFA, while keeping total fat, polyunsaturated fatty acids (PUFA), trans-fatty acids, and the ratio of palmitic to stearic acid, and n-6 to n-3 PUFA, unchanged. Results: Using habitual diet records and a standardised database for food fatty acid compositions, a sequential process of theoretical fat substitutions enabled suitable fat sources for use in the three diets to be identified, and experimental margarines for baking, spreading and the manufacture of snack foods to be designed. The dietary intervention was largely successful in achieving the fatty acid targets of the three diets, although unintended differences between the original target and the analysed fatty acid composition of the experimental margarines resulted in a lower than anticipated MUFA intake on the HM diet, and a lower ratio of palmitic to stearic acid compared with the reference or MM diet. Conclusions: This study has revealed important theoretical considerations that should be taken into account when designing diets of specific fatty acid composition, as well as practical issues of implementation.

Nitrogen processes in aquatic ecosystems

Executive summary Nature of the problem (science/management/policy) • Freshwater ecosystems play a key role in the European nitrogen (N) cycle, both as a reactive agent that transfers, stores and processes N loadings from the atmosphere and terrestrial ecosystems, and as a natural environment severely impacted by the increase of these loadings. Approaches • This chapter is a review of major processes and factors controlling N transport and transformations for running waters, standing waters, groundwaters and riparian wetlands. Key findings/state of knowledge • The major factor controlling N processes in freshwater ecosystems is the residence time of water, which varies widely both in space and in time, and which is sensitive to changes in climate, land use and management. • The effects of increased N loadings to European freshwaters include acidification in semi-natural environments, and eutrophication in more disturbed ecosystems, with associated loss of biodiversity in both cases. • An important part of the nitrogen transferred by surface waters is in the form of organic N, as dissolved organic N (DON) and particulate organic N (PON). This part is dominant in semi-natural catchments throughout Europe and remains a significant component of the total N load even in nitrate enriched rivers. • In eutrophicated standing freshwaters N can be a factor limiting or co-limiting biological production, and control of both N and phosphorus (P) loading is oft en needed in impacted areas, if ecological quality is to be restored. Major uncertainties/challenges • The importance of storage and denitrifi cation in aquifers is a major uncertainty in the global N cycle, and controls in part the response of catchments to land use or management changes. In some aquifers, the increase of N concentrations will continue for decades even if efficient mitigation measures are implemented now. • Nitrate retention by riparian wetlands has oft en been highlighted. However, their use for mitigation must be treated with caution, since their effectiveness is difficult to predict, and side effects include increased DON emissions to adjacent open waters, N2O emissions to the atmosphere, and loss of biodiversity. • In fact, the character and specific spatial origins of DON are not fully understood, and similarly the quantitative importance of indirect N2O emissions from freshwater ecosystems as a result of N leaching losses from agricultural soils is still poorly known at the regional scale. • These major uncertainties remain due to the lack of adequate monitoring (all forms of N at a relevant frequency), especially – but not only – in the southern and eastern EU countries. Recommendations (research/policy) • The great variability of transfer pathways, buffering capacity and sensitivity of the catchments and of the freshwater ecosystems calls for site specific mitigation measures rather than standard ones applied at regional to national scale. • The spatial and temporal variations of the N forms, the processes controlling the transport and transformation of N within freshwaters, require further investigation if the role of N in influencing freshwater ecosystem health is to be better understood, underpinning the implementation of the EU Water Framework Directive for European freshwaters.

Ice crystals growing from vapor in supercooled clouds between −2.5° and −22°C: testing current parameterization methods using laboratory data

The physical and empirical relationships used by microphysics schemes to control the rate at which vapor is transferred to ice crystals growing in supercooled clouds are compared with laboratory data to evaluate the realism of various model formulations. Ice crystal growth rates predicted from capacitance theory are compared with measurements from three independent laboratory studies. When the growth is diffusion- limited, the predicted growth rates are consistent with the measured values to within about 20% in 14 of the experiments analyzed, over the temperature range −2.5° to −22°C. Only two experiments showed significant disagreement with theory (growth rate overestimated by about 30%–40% at −3.7° and −10.6°C). Growth predictions using various ventilation factor parameterizations were also calculated and compared with supercooled wind tunnel data. It was found that neither of the standard parameterizations used for ventilation adequately described both needle and dendrite growth; however, by choosing habit-specific ventilation factors from previous numerical work it was possible to match the experimental data in both regimes. The relationships between crystal mass, capacitance, and fall velocity were investigated based on the laboratory data. It was found that for a given crystal size the capacitance was significantly overestimated by two of the microphysics schemes considered here, yet for a given crystal mass the growth rate was underestimated by those same schemes because of unrealistic mass/size assumptions. The fall speed for a given capacitance (controlling the residence time of a crystal in the supercooled layer relative to its effectiveness as a vapor sink, and the relative importance of ventilation effects) was found to be overpredicted by all the schemes in which fallout is permitted, implying that the modeled crystals reside for too short a time within the cloud layer and that the parameterized ventilation effect is too strong.