A Bayesian hurdle model for analysis of an insect resistance monitoring database

Motivated by the analysis of the Australian Grain Insect Resistance Database (AGIRD), we develop a Bayesian hurdle modelling approach to assess trends in strong resistance of stored grain insects to phosphine over time. The binary response variable from AGIRD indicating presence or absence of strong resistance is characterized by a majority of absence observations and the hurdle model is a two step approach that is useful when analyzing such a binary response dataset. The proposed hurdle model utilizes Bayesian classification trees to firstly identify covariates and covariate levels pertaining to possible presence or absence of strong resistance. Secondly, generalized additive models (GAMs) with spike and slab priors for variable selection are fitted to the subset of the dataset identified from the Bayesian classification tree indicating possibility of presence of strong resistance. From the GAM we assess trends, biosecurity issues and site specific variables influencing the presence of strong resistance using a variable selection approach. The proposed Bayesian hurdle model is compared to its frequentist counterpart, and also to a naive Bayesian approach which fits a GAM to the entire dataset. The Bayesian hurdle model has the benefit of providing a set of good trees for use in the first step and appears to provide enough flexibility to represent the influence of variables on strong resistance compared to the frequentist model, but also captures the subtle changes in the trend that are missed by the frequentist and naive Bayesian models.

Monitoring spatiotemporal dynamics of human movement based on MAC address data

This thesis was a step forward in extracting valuable features from human's movement behaviour in terms of space utilisation based on Media-Access-Control data. This research offered a low-cost and less computational complexity approach compared to existing human's movement tracking methods. This research was successfully applied in QUT's Gardens Point campus and can be scaled to bigger environments and societies. Extractable information from human's movement by this approach can add a significant value to studying human's movement behaviour, enhancing future urban and interior design, improving crowd safety and evacuation plans.

Should we tailor standardize exercise interventions to suit differing menopausal status?

The article by Kretzschmar et al in this issue of Menopause details a study investigating the effect of a mild-intensity aerobic exercise training program on markers of mortality risk in both pre- and post-menopausal African American women. The findings of this study showed that aerobic exercise training was successful in improving some markers of cardiovascular disease and mortality in post-menopausal women. The premise of this study, however, does suggest that increased exercise intensity may be required in post-menopausal women as opposed to pre menopausal women to achieve the same decreased changes in CVD markers. The outcome of the study is thus of interest to the readers of Menopause and to all those who provide health care to postmenopausal women, as they suggest that higher levels of exercise intensity or perhaps additional interventions may need to be considered in this population to further decrease mortality risk. The study therefore, has greater implications than simply the suggesting of tailoring exercise interventions generally, rather, the publication highlights the importance of prescribing exercise as medicine in a tailored fashion for women depending on their menopausal status.

Acute resistance exercise increases the expression of chemotactic factors within skeletal muscle

Intense resistance exercise causes mechanical loading of skeletal muscle, followed by muscle adaptation. Chemotactic factors likely play an important role in these processes. Purpose We investigated the time course of changes in the expression and tissue localization of several key chemotactic factors in skeletal muscle during the early phase of recovery following resistance exercise. Methods Muscle biopsy samples were obtained from vastus lateralis of eight untrained men (22+-0.5 yrs) before and 2, 4 and 24 h after three sets of leg press, squat and leg extension at 80% 1 RM. Results Monocyte chemotactic protein-1 (95×), interleukin-8 (2,300×), IL-6 (317×), urokinase-type plasminogen activator (15×), vascular endothelial growth factor (2×) and fractalkine (2.5×) mRNA was significantly elevated 2 h post-exercise. Interleukin-8 (38×) and interleukin-6 (58×) protein was also significantly elevated 2 h post-exercise, while monocyte chemotactic protein-1 protein was significantly elevated at 2 h (22×) and 4 h (21×) post-exercise. Monocyte chemotactic protein-1 and interleukin-8 were expressed by cells residing in the interstitial space between muscle fibers and, in some cases, were co-localized with CD68+ macrophages, PAX7+ satellite cells and blood vessels. However, the patterns of staining were inconclusive and not consistent. Conclusion In conclusion, resistance exercise stimulated a marked increase in the mRNA and protein expression of various chemotactic factors in skeletal muscle. Myofibers were not the dominant source of these factors. These findings suggest that chemotactic factors regulate remodeling/adaptation of skeletal muscle during the early phase of recovery following resistance exercise.

Condition monitoring and fault diagnosis of diesel engines using instantaneous angular speed analysis

Continuous monitoring of diesel engine performance is critical for early detection of fault developments in an engine before they materialize into a functional failure. Instantaneous crank angular speed (IAS) analysis is one of a few nonintrusive condition monitoring techniques that can be utilized for such a task. Furthermore, the technique is more suitable for mass industry deployments than other non-intrusive methods such as vibration and acoustic emission techniques due to the low instrumentation cost, smaller data size and robust signal clarity since IAS is not affected by the engine operation noise and noise from the surrounding environment. A combination of IAS and order analysis was employed in this experimental study and the major order component of the IAS spectrum was used for engine loading estimation and fault diagnosis of a four-stroke four-cylinder diesel engine. It was shown that IAS analysis can provide useful information about engine speed variation caused by changing piston momentum and crankshaft acceleration during the engine combustion process. It was also found that the major order component of the IAS spectra directly associated with the engine firing frequency (at twice the mean shaft rotating speed) can be utilized to estimate engine loading condition regardless of whether the engine is operating at healthy condition or with faults. The amplitude of this order component follows a distinctive exponential curve as the loading condition changes. A mathematical relationship was then established in the paper to estimate the engine power output based on the amplitude of this order component of the IAS spectrum. It was further illustrated that IAS technique can be employed for the detection of a simulated exhaust valve fault in this study.

Novel use of faecal sterols to assess human faecal contamination in Antarctica : a likelihood assessment matrix for environmental monitoring

Wastewater containing human sewage is often discharged with little or no treatment into the Antarctic marine environment. Faecal sterols (primarily coprostanol) in sediments have been used for assessment of human sewage contamination in this environment, but in situ production and indigenous faunal inputs can confound such determinations. Using gas chromatography with mass spectral detection profiles of both C27 and C29 sterols, potential sources of faecal sterols were examined in nearshore marine sediments, encompassing sites proximal and distal to the wastewater outfall at Davis Station. Faeces from indigenous seals and penguins were also examined. Faeces from several indigenous species contained significant quantities of coprostanol but not 24-ethylcoprostanol, which is present in human faeces. In situ coprostanol and 24-ethylcoprostanol production was identified by co-production of their respective epi isomers at sites remote from the wastewat er source and in high total organic matter sediments. A C 29 sterols-based polyphasic likelihood assessment matrix for human sewage contamination is presented, which distinguishes human from local fauna faecal inputs and in situ production in the Antarctic environment. Sewage contamination was detected up to 1.5 km from Davis Station.

Real-time monitoring of nucleation-growth cycle of carbon nanoparticles in acetylene plasmas

Quantum cascade laserabsorption spectroscopy was used to measure the absolute concentration of acetylene in situ during the nanoparticle growth in Ar + C2H2 RF plasmas. It is demonstrated that the nanoparticle growth exhibits a periodical behavior, with the growth cycle period strongly dependent on the initial acetylene concentration in the chamber. Being 300 s at 7.5% of acetylene in the gas mixture, the growth cycle period decreases with the acetylene concentration increasing; the growth eventually disappears when the acetylene concentration exceeds 32%. During the nanoparticle growth, the acetylene concentration is small and does not exceed 4.2% at radio frequency (RF) power of 4 W, and 0.5% at RF power of 20 W. An injection of a single acetylene pulse into the discharge also results in the nanoparticlenucleation and growth. The absorption spectroscopy technique was found to be very effective for the time-resolved measurement of the hydrocarbon content in nanoparticle-generatingplasmas.

Degradation modeling and monitoring of machines using operation-specific hidden Markov models

In this paper, a novel data-driven approach to monitoring of systems operating under variable operating conditions is described. The method is based on characterizing the degradation process via a set of operation-specific hidden Markov models (HMMs), whose hidden states represent the unobservable degradation states of the monitored system while its observable symbols represent the sensor readings. Using the HMM framework, modeling, identification and monitoring methods are detailed that allow one to identify a HMM of degradation for each operation from mixed-operation data and perform operation-specific monitoring of the system. Using a large data set provided by a major manufacturer, the new methods are applied to a semiconductor manufacturing process running multiple operations in a production environment.

A review of the effects of sedation on thermoregulation : insights for the cardiac catheterisation laboratory

Purpose To examine the effects that the sedative and analgesic medications which are commonly used in the cardiac catheterisation laboratory have on thermoregulation. Design A structured review strategy was used. Methods Medline and CINAHL were searched for published studies and reference lists of retrieved studies were scrutinized for further research. Data were extracted using a standardised extraction tool. Results A total of nine studies examined the effect that sedative and analgesic medications have on thermoregulation. Midazolam has minimal impact on thermoregulation while opioids, dexmedetomidine and propofol markedly decrease vasoconstriction and shivering thresholds. Conclusions Patients who receive sedation in the cardiac catheterisation laboratory may be at risk of hypothermia, due to the use of medications that impair thermoregulation. Further research is required to identify the prevalence of unplanned hypothermia during sedation in the cardiac catheterisation laboratory.

Legislative impact on the mortgagee’s exercise of power of sale : the need for rationalisation

Throughout Australia, regulation of the power of sale is highly inconsistent. In response to the uncertain nature of the mortgagee’s duty at common law, many legislatures have intervened. As a result, there has been a proliferation of statutory formula conferring varying degrees of protection on mortgagors. The differences in approach indicate a lack of consensus as to the best method of regulation. This article exposes the extent of the inconsistency and provides a comparative assessment of the various provisions with reference to the policy concerns that underpin legislative intervention. The article identifies a number of deficiencies associated with existing provisions and concludes that mortgagees and mortgagors alike would benefit from improved clarity and consistency. To that end, the article proposes a model provision that seeks to address the deficiencies identified.

Effect of broadcast baiting on abundance patterns of red imported fire ants (Hymenoptera: Formicidae) and key local ant genera at long-term monitoring sites in Brisbane, Australia

In 2001, the red imported fire ant (Solenopsis invicta Buren) was identified in Brisbane, Australia. An eradication program involving broadcast bait treatment with two insect growth regulators and a metabolic inhibitor began in September of that year and is currently ongoing. To gauge the impacts of these treatments on local ant populations, we examined long-term monitoring data and quantified abundance patterns of S. invicta and common local ant genera using a linear mixed-effects model. For S. invicta, presence in pitfalls reduced over time to zero on every site. Significantly higher numbers of S. invicta workers were collected on high-density polygyne sites, which took longer to disinfest compared with monogyne and low-density polygyne sites. For local ants, nine genus groups of the 10 most common genera analyzed either increased in abundance or showed no significant trend. Five of these genus groups were significantly less abundant at the start of monitoring on high-density polygyne sites compared with monogyne and low-density polygyne sites. The genus Pheidole significantly reduced in abundance over time, suggesting that it was affected by treatment efforts. These results demonstrate that the treatment regime used at the time successfully removed S. invicta from these sites in Brisbane, and that most local ant genera were not seriously impacted by the treatment. These results have important implications for current and future prophylactic treatment efforts, and suggest that native ants remain in treated areas to provide some biological resistance to S. invicta.

The effect of ß-alanine on buffering capacity and exercise performance during and following high-intensity exercise in healthy males

Introduction Intense exercise induced acidosis occurs from the accumulation of hydrogen ions as by-products of anaerobic metabolism. Oral ingestion of ß-alanine, a limiting precursor of the intracellular physiochemical buffer carnosine in skeletal muscle, may counteract any detrimental effect of acidosis and benefit performance. The aim of this study was to investigate the effect of ß-alanine as an ergogenic aid during high intensity exercise performance in healthy males. Methods Five males ingested either ß-alanine (BAl) (4.8 g.d-1 for 4wk, then 6.4 g.d-1 for 2wk) or placebo (Pl) (CaCO3) in a crossover design with 6 wk washout between. Following supplementation, participants performed two different intense exercise protocols over consecutive days. On the first day a repeated sprint ability (RSA) test of 5 x 6s, with 24s rest periods, was performed. On the second day a cycling capacity test measuring the time to exhaustion (TTE) was performed at 110% of their max workload achieved in a pre supplementation max test (CCT110%). Non-invasive quantification of carnosine, prior to, and following each supplementation, with magnetic resonance spectrometry was performed in the soleus and gastrocnemius. Time to fatigue (CCT110%), peak and mean power (RSA), blood pH, and plasma lactate were measured. Results Muscle carnosine concentration was not different prior to ß-alanine supplementation and increased 18% in the soleus and 26% in the gastrocnemius, respectively with 6 wk supplementation. There was no difference in the measured performance variables during the RSA test (peak and average power output). TTE during the CCT110% was significantly enhanced following the ingestion of BAl (155s ± 19.03) compared to Pl (134s ± 26.16). No changes were observed in blood pH during either exercise protocol and during the recovery from exercise. Plasma lactate in the BAl condition was significantly higher than Pl only from the 15th minute following exercise during the CCT110%. FIG. 1: Changes in carnosine concentration in the gastrocnemius prior and post 6 week chronic supplementation of placebo and β-alanine. Values expressed as mean.* p<0.05 from Pl at 6 weeks, # p<0.05 from pre supplementation. Conclusion/Discussion Greater muscle carnosine content following 6wk supplementation of ß-alanine enhanced the potential for intracellular buffering capacity. However, this only translated into enhanced performance during the CCT110% high intensity cycling exercise protocol, with no change observed during the RSA test. No differences in post exercise and recovery plasma lactates and blood pH, indicates that 6wks ß-alanine supplementation has no effect on anaerobic metabolism during multiple bout high intensity exercise. Changes in plasma lactate during recovery supports that ß-alanine supplementation may affect anaerobic metabolism however during single bout high intensity.

The effect of ß-alanine on buffering capacity and exercise performance during and following high-intensity exercise in healthy males

Intense exercise induced acidosis occurs after accumulation of hydrogen ions as by-products of anaerobic metabolism. Oral ingestion of ß-alanine, a limiting precursor of the intracellular physiochemical buffer carnosine in skeletal muscle, may counteract detrimental effects of acidosis and benefit performance. This study aimed to investigate the effect of ß-alanine as an ergogenic aid during high intensity exercise performance. Five healthy males ingested either ß-alanine or placebo (Pl) (CaCO3) in a crossover design with 6 wk washout between. Participants performed two different intense exercise protocols over consecutive days. On the first day a repeated sprint ability (RSA) test was performed. On the second day a cycling capacity test measuring the time to exhaustion (TTE) was performed at 110% of maximum workload achieved in a pre supplementation max test (CCT110%). Non-invasive quantification of carnosine, prior to, and following each supplementation, with in vivo magnetic resonance spectrometry was performed in the soleus and gastrocnemius muscle. Time to fatigue (CCT110%), peak and mean power (RSA), blood pH, and plasma lactate were measured. Muscle carnosine concentration was not different prior to ß-alanine supplementation and increased 18% in the soleus and 26% in the gastrocnemius, respectively after supplementation. There was no difference in the measured performance variables during the RSA test (peak and average power output). TTE during the CCT110% was significantly enhanced following the ingestion of BAl (155s ± 19.03) compared to Pl (134s ± 26.16). No changes were observed in blood pH during either exercise protocol and during the recovery from exercise. Plasma lactate after BAI was significantly higher than Pl only from the 15th minute following exercise during the CCT110%. Greater muscle carnosine content following 6wk supplementation of ß-alanine enhanced the potential for intracellular buffering capacity. This translated into enhanced performance during the CCT110% high intensity cycling exercise protocol but not during the RSA test. The lack of change in plasma lactate or blood pH indicates that 6wks ß-alanine supplementation has no effect on anaerobic metabolism during multiple-bout high-intensity exercise. Changes measured in plasma lactate during recovery support the hypothesis that ß-alanine supplementation may affect anaerobic metabolism particularly during single bout high intensity.

Sequential monitoring of hospital adverse events when control charts fail : the example of fall injuries in hospitals

Objective To evaluate methods for monitoring monthly aggregated hospital adverse event data that display clustering, non-linear trends and possible autocorrelation. Design Retrospective audit. Setting The Northern Hospital, Melbourne, Australia. Participants 171,059 patients admitted between January 2001 and December 2006. Measurements The analysis is illustrated with 72 months of patient fall injury data using a modified Shewhart U control chart, and charts derived from a quasi-Poisson generalised linear model (GLM) and a generalised additive mixed model (GAMM) that included an approximate upper control limit. Results The data were overdispersed and displayed a downward trend and possible autocorrelation. The downward trend was followed by a predictable period after December 2003. The GLM-estimated incidence rate ratio was 0.98 (95% CI 0.98 to 0.99) per month. The GAMM-fitted count fell from 12.67 (95% CI 10.05 to 15.97) in January 2001 to 5.23 (95% CI 3.82 to 7.15) in December 2006 (p<0.001). The corresponding values for the GLM were 11.9 and 3.94. Residual plots suggested that the GLM underestimated the rate at the beginning and end of the series and overestimated it in the middle. The data suggested a more rapid rate fall before 2004 and a steady state thereafter, a pattern reflected in the GAMM chart. The approximate upper two-sigma equivalent control limit in the GLM and GAMM charts identified 2 months that showed possible special-cause variation. Conclusion Charts based on GAMM analysis are a suitable alternative to Shewhart U control charts with these data.

A runtime integrity monitoring framework for real-time relative positioning systems based on GPS and DSRC

This paper provides a three-layered framework to monitor the positioning performance requirements of Real-time Relative Positioning (RRP) systems of the Cooperative Intelligent Transport Systems (C-ITS) that support Cooperative Collision Warning (CCW) applications. These applications exploit state data of surrounding vehicles obtained solely from the Global Positioning System (GPS) and Dedicated Short-Range Communications (DSRC) units without using other sensors. To this end, the paper argues the need for the GPS/DSRC-based RRP systems to have an autonomous monitoring mechanism, since the operation of CCW applications is meant to augment safety on roads. The advantages of autonomous integrity monitoring are essential and integral to any safety-of-life system. The autonomous integrity monitoring framework proposed necessitates the RRP systems to detect/predict the unavailability of their sub-systems and of the integrity monitoring module itself, and, if available, to account for effects of data link delays and breakages of DSRC links, as well as of faulty measurement sources of GPS and/or integrated augmentation positioning systems, before the information used for safety warnings/alarms becomes unavailable, unreliable, inaccurate or misleading. Hence, a monitoring framework using a tight integration and correlation approach is proposed for instantaneous reliability assessment of the RRP systems. Ultimately, using the proposed framework, the RRP systems will provide timely alerts to users when the RRP solutions cannot be trusted or used for the intended operation.