Adding value to ecological risk assessment with population modeling

Current measures used to estimate the risks of toxic chemicals are not relevant to the goals of the environmental protection process, and thus ecological risk assessment (ERA) is not used as extensively as it should be as a basis for cost-effective management of environmental resources. Appropriate population models can provide a powerful basis for expressing ecological risks that better inform the environmental management process and thus that are more likely to be used by managers. Here we provide at least five reasons why population modeling should play an important role in bridging the gap between what we measure and what we want to protect. We then describe six actions needed for its implementation into management-relevant ERA.

Reversible addition of CO to coordinatively unsaturated high-spin iron(II) complexes

Several new coordinatively unsaturated iron(II) complexes of the types [Fe(EN-iPr)X2] (E = P, S, Se; X = Cl, Br) and [Fe(ON-iPr)2X]X containing bidentate EN ligands based on N-(2-pyridinyl)aminophosphines as well as oxo, thio, and seleno derivatives thereof were prepared and characterized by NMR spectroscopy and X-ray crystallography. Mössbauer spectroscopy and magnetization studies confirmed their high-spin nature with magnetic moments very close to 4.9 μB, reflecting the expected four unpaired d-electrons in all these compounds. Stable low-spin carbonyl complexes of the types [Fe(PN-iPr)2(CO)X]X (X = Cl, Br) and cis-CO,cis-Br-[Fe(PN-iPr)(CO)2X2] (X = Br) were obtained by reacting cis-Fe(CO)4X2 with the stronger PN donor ligands, but not with the weaker EN donor ligands (E = O, S, Se). Furthermore, the reactivity of [Fe(PN-iPr)X2] toward CO was investigated by IR spectroscopy. Whereas at room temperature no reaction took place, at −50 °C [Fe(PN-iPr)X2] added readily CO to form, depending on the nature of X, the mono- and dicarbonyl complexes [Fe(PN-iPr)(X)2(CO)] (X = Cl) and [Fe(PN-iPr)(CO)2X2] (X = Cl, Br), respectively. In the case of X = Br, two isomeric dicarbonyl complexes, namely, cis-CO,trans-Br-[Fe(PN-iPr)(CO)2Br2] (major species) and cis-CO,cis-Br-[Fe(PN-iPr)(CO)2Br2] (minor species), are formed. The addition of CO to [Fe(PN-iPr)X2] was investigated in detail by means of DFT/B3LYP calculations. This study strongly supports the experimental findings that at low temperature two isomeric low-spin dicarbonyl complexes are formed. For kinetic reasons cis,trans-[Fe(PN-iPr)(CO)2Br2] releases CO at elevated temperature, re-forming [Fe(PN-iPr)Br2], while the corresponding cis,cis isomer is stable under these conditions.

Public awareness of, and attitude to, Reading's urban gardens: the findings of a questionnaire survey

This paper records and analyses the results of a questionnaire survey, undertaken in Reading in January and February 1994, into the awareness and use of Reading's town centre gardens. The results indicate that although the majority of those interviewed were aware of one or more of the gardens, relatively few visit any of the gardens and, of those who do, the majority visit infrequently. Although the gardens are generally very well liked by those who use them, no clear reasons emerge as to the motivation for visiting, beyond using them as a short cut or as a source of fresh air and tranquillity. Equally, beyond the provision of information and signposting, there appears to be little to turn current non-users into users of the gardens. The report concludes that beyond some managerial issues such as safety and cleanliness, the Borough Council needs to address the extent to which the gardens could play a more central role in the life of the town and, if this is the case, how this might be achieved.

Testing the sustainability and sensitivity to climatic change of terrace agricultural systems in the Peruvian Andes: a pilot study

The results of an integrated geoarchaeological and palaeoecological pilot study of a prehistoric agricultural terrace and nearby mire basin are presented. They reveal two stages of terrace construction for the cultivation of Zea mays during the Middle Horizon (615–695 AD) and late, Late Intermediate Period (1200–1400 AD). These stages were strongly associated with evidence for vegetation succession, destabilisation and erosion of the surrounding landscape, and changes in mire surface wetness. The reasons for agricultural terrace abandonment and/or reconstruction are uncertain, with only circumstantial evidence for climatically induced agricultural change.

Economists are not dismal, the world is not a Petri dish and other reasons for optimism

One of the recurrent themes in the debate around how to ensure global food security concerns the capacity of the planet to support its growing population. Neo-Malthusian thinking suggests that we are in a situation in which further expansion of the population cannot be supported and that the population checks, with their dismal consequences envisaged by Malthus, will lead to a new era of stagnant incomes and population. More sophisticated models of the link between population and income are less gloomy however. They see population growth as an integral component of the economic growth which is necessary to ensure that the poorest achieve food security. An undue focus on the difficulties of meeting the demands of the increasing population risks damaging this growth. Instead, attention should be focused on ensuring that the conditions to ensure that economic growth accompanies population growth are in place.

Use of soft heterocyclic N‑donor ligands to separate actinides and lanthanides

The removal of the most long-lived radiotoxic elements from used nuclear fuel, minor actinides, is foreseen as an essential step toward increasing the public acceptance of nuclear energy as a key component of a low-carbon energy future. Once removed from the remaining used fuel, these elements can be used as fuel in their own right in fast reactors or converted into shorter-lived or stable elements by transmutation prior to geological disposal. The SANEX process is proposed to carry out this selective separation by solvent extraction. Recent efforts to develop reagents capable of separating the radioactive minor actinides from lanthanides as part of a future strategy for the management and reprocessing of used nuclear fuel are reviewed. The current strategies for the reprocessing of PUREX raffinate are summarized, and some guiding principles for the design of actinide-selective reagents are defined. The development and testing of different classes of solvent extraction reagent are then summarized, covering some of the earliest ligand designs right through to the current reagents of choice, bis(1,2,4-triazine) ligands. Finally, we summarize research aimed at developing a fundamental understanding of the underlying reasons for the excellent extraction capabilities and high actinide/lanthanide selectivities shown by this class of ligands and our recent efforts to immobilize these reagents onto solid phases.

To what extent are EU steel companies susceptible to competitive loss due to climate policy?

In recognition of their competitive vulnerability, a set of special rules have been devised for managing sectors such as steel and cement within the EU ETS. These rules basically seek to set sector specific performance benchmarks and reward top performers. However, the steel sector as a whole will receive the vast majority of its allowances for free in Phase III. Perceptions of competitive vulnerability have been largely based on inherently hypothetical analyses which rely heavily on counterfactual scenario and abatement cost estimates often provided by firms themselves. This paper diverges from these approaches by providing a qualitative assessment of the two key reasons underpinning the competitive vulnerability argument of the EU Steel Companies based on interviews and case study involving the three largest producers of steel within the EU – AcerlorMittal, Corus, and ThyssenKrupp. We find that these arguments provide only partial and weak justifications for competitive loss and discriminatory treatment in the EUETS. This strategy is difficult to counter by governments due to information asymmetry; and it appears to have proved very successful insofar as it has helped the industry to achieve free allocation in Phases I-III of EU ETS by playing up the risk of carbon leakage.

Are transgenic mice the 'alkahest' to understanding myocardial hypertrophy and failure?

Murine transgenesis using cardioselective promoters has become increasingly common in studies of cardiac hypertrophy and heart failure, with expression mediated by pronuclear microinjection being the commonest format. Without wishing to decry their usefulness, in our view, such studies are not necessarily as unambiguous as sometimes portrayed and clarity is not always their consequence. We describe broadly the types of approach undertaken in the heart and point out some of the drawbacks. We provide three arbitrarily-chosen examples where, in spite of a number of often-independent studies, no consensus has yet been achieved. These include glycogen synthase kinase 3, the extracellular signal-regulated kinase pathway and the ryanodine receptor 2. We believe that the transgenic approach should not be viewed in an empyreal light and, depending on the questions asked, we suggest that other experimental systems provide equal (or even more) valuable outcomes.

The use of land-sea warming contrast under climate change to improve impact metrics

A favoured method of assimilating information from state-of-the-art climate models into integrated assessment models of climate impacts is to use the transient climate response (TCR) of the climate models as an input, sometimes accompanied by a pattern matching approach to provide spatial information. More recent approaches to the problem use TCR with another independent piece of climate model output: the land-sea surface warming ratio (φ). In this paper we show why the use of φ in addition to TCR has such utility. Multiple linear regressions of surface temperature change onto TCR and φ in 22 climate models from the CMIP3 multi-model database show that the inclusion of φ explains a much greater fraction of the inter-model variance than using TCR alone. The improvement is particularly pronounced in North America and Eurasia in the boreal summer season, and in the Amazon all year round. The use of φ as the second metric is beneficial for three reasons: firstly it is uncorrelated with TCR in state-of-the-art climate models and can therefore be considered as an independent metric; secondly, because of its projected time-invariance, the magnitude of φ is better constrained than TCR in the immediate future; thirdly, the use of two variables is much simpler than approaches such as pattern scaling from climate models. Finally we show how using the latest estimates of φ from climate models with a mean value of 1.6—as opposed to previously reported values of 1.4—can significantly increase the mean time-integrated discounted damage projections in a state-of-the-art integrated assessment model by about 15 %. When compared to damages calculated without the inclusion of the land-sea warming ratio, this figure rises to 65 %, equivalent to almost 200 trillion dollars over 200 years.

Valuation 'accuracy' within the Right to Buy process

Based on surveys undertaken with local authorities and valuers who provide the valuations on which purchase prices for local authority houses under the Right to Buy are based, this paper reports on research which aims to establish the reasons for the differences between the initial valuations provided by the local authority valuers and those provided by the District Valuer on appeal. The paper reports on the reasons why tenants appeal the initial valuation and discusses issues of valuation accuracy, uncertainty and the different and imperfect data available to valuers employed by the organisations involved, as well as the factors within the valuation process, including the absence of any requirement to agree a value, which contribute to the different outcomes.

What is the climate system able to do ‘on its own’?

The climate of the Earth, like planetary climates in general, is broadly controlled by solar irradiation, planetary albedo and emissivity as well as its rotation rate and distribution of land (with its orography) and oceans. However, the majority of climate fluctuations that affect mankind are internal modes of the general circulation of the atmosphere and the oceans. Some of these modes, such as El Nino-Southern Oscillation (ENSO), are quasi-regular and have some longer-term predictive skill; others like the Arctic and Antarctic Oscillation are chaotic and generally unpredictable beyond a few weeks. Studies using general circulation models indicate that internal processes dominate the regional climate and that some like ENSO events have even distinct global signatures. This is one of the reasons why it is so difficult to separate internal climate processes from external ones caused, for example, by changes in greenhouse gases and solar irradiation. However, the accumulation of the warmest seasons during the latest two decades is lending strong support to the forcing of the greenhouse gases. As models are getting more comprehensive, they show a gradually broader range of internal processes including those on longer time scales, challenging the interpretation of the causes of past and present climate events further.

Geo-Engineering to Confine Climate Change: Is it at all Feasible?

Paul Crutzen (2006) has suggested a research initiative to consider whether it would be feasible to artificially enhance the albedo of the planet Earth to counteract greenhouse warming. The enhancement of albedo would be achieved by intentionally injecting sulfur into the stratosphere. The rational for proposing the experiment is the observed cooling of the atmosphere following the recent major volcanic eruptions by El Chichon in 1984 and Mount Pinatubo in 1991 (Hansen et al., 1992). Although I am principally not against a research initiative to study such a potential experiment, I do have important reservations concerning its general feasibility. And its potential feasibility, I believe, must be the key motivation for embarking on such a study. Here I will bring up three major issues, which must be more thoroughly understood before any geo-engineering of climate could be considered, if at all. The three issues are (i) the lack of accuracy in climate prediction, (ii) the huge difference in timescale between the effect of greenhouse gases and the effect of aerosols and (iii) serious environmental problems which may be caused by high carbon dioxide concentration irrespective of the warming of the climate.

From short-range barotropic modelling to extended-range global weather prediction: a 40-year perspective

At the end of the 20th century, we can look back on a spectacular development of numerical weather prediction, which has, practically uninterrupted, been going on since the middle of the century. High-resolution predictions for more than a week ahead for any part of the globe are now routinely produced and anyone with an Internet connection can access many of these forecasts for anywhere in the world. Extended predictions for several seasons ahead are also being done — the latest El Niño event in 1997/1998 is an example of such a successful prediction. The great achievement is due to a number of factors including the progress in computational technology and the establishment of global observing systems, combined with a systematic research program with an overall strategy towards building comprehensive prediction systems for climate and weather. In this article, I will discuss the different evolutionary steps in this development and the way new scientific ideas have contributed to efficiently explore the computing power and in using observations from new types of observing systems. Weather prediction is not an exact science due to unavoidable errors in initial data and in the models. To quantify the reliability of a forecast is therefore essential and probably more so the longer the forecasts are. Ensemble prediction is thus a new and important concept in weather and climate prediction, which I believe will become a routine aspect of weather prediction in the future. The limit between weather and climate prediction is becoming more and more diffuse and in the final part of this article I will outline the way I think development may proceed in the future.

BTBPs versus BTPhens: some reasons for their differences in properties concerning the partitioning of minor actinides and the advantages of BTPhens

Two members of the tetradentate N-donor ligand families 6,6′-bis(1,2,4-triazin-3-yl)-2,2′-bipyridine (BTBP) and 2,9-bis(1,2,4-triazin-3-yl)-1,10-phenanthroline (BTPhen) currently being developed for separating actinides from lanthanides have been studied. It has been confirmed that CyMe4-BTPhen 2 has faster complexation kinetics than CyMe4-BTBP 1. The values for the HOMO−LUMO gap of 2 are comparable with those of CyMe4-BTBP 1 for which the HOMO−LUMO gap was previously calculated to be 2.13 eV. The displacement of BTBP from its bis-lanthanum(III) complex by BTPhen was observed by NMR, and constitutes the only direct evidence for the greater thermodynamic stability of the complexes of BTPhen. NMR competition experiments suggest the following order of bis-complex stability: 1:2 bis-BTPhen complex ≥ heteroleptic BTBP/BTPhen 1:2 bis-complex > 1:2 bis-BTBP complex. Kinetics studies on some bis-triazine N-donor ligands using the stopped-flow technique showed a clear relationship between the rates of metal ion complexation and the degree to which the ligand is preorganized for metal binding. The BTBPs must overcome a significant (ca. 12 kcal mol−1) energy barrier to rotation about the central biaryl C−C axis in order to achieve the cis−cis conformation that is required to form a complex, whereas the cis−cis conformation is fixed in the BTPhens. Complexation thermodynamics and kinetics studies in acetonitrile show subtle differences between the thermodynamic stabilities of the complexes formed, with similar stability constants being found for both ligands. The first crystal structure of a 1:1 complex of CyMe4-BTPhen 2 with Y(NO3)3 is also reported. The metal ion is 10- coordinate being bonded to the tetradentate ligand 2 and three bidentate nitrate ions. The tetradentate ligand is nearly planar with angles between consecutive rings of 16.4(2)°, 6.4(2)°, 9.7(2)°, respectively.

Near-infrared water vapour self-continuum at close to room temperature

The gaseous absorption of solar radiation within near-infrared atmospheric windows in the Earth's atmosphere is dominated by the water vapour continuum. Recent measurements by Baranov et al. (2011) [17] in 2500 cm−1 (4 μm) window and by Ptashnik et al. (2011) [18] in a few near-infrared windows revealed that the self-continuum absorption is typically an order of magnitude stronger than given by the MT_CKD continuum model prior to version 2.5. Most of these measurements, however, were made at elevated temperatures, which makes their application to atmospheric conditions difficult. Here we report new laboratory measurements of the self-continuum absorption at 289 and 318 K in the near-infrared spectral region 1300–8000 cm−1, using a multipass 30 m base cell with total optical path 612 m. Our results confirm the main conclusions of the previous measurements both within bands and in windows. Of particular note is that we present what we believe to be the first near-room temperature measurement using Fourier Transform Spectrometry of the self-continuum in the 6200 cm−1 (1.6 μm) window, which provides tentative evidence that, at such temperatures, the water vapour continuum absorption may be as strong as it is in 2.1 μm and 4 μm windows and up to 2 orders of magnitude stronger than the MT_CKD-2.5 continuum. We note that alternative methods of measuring the continuum in this window have yielded widely differing assessment of its strength, which emphasises the need for further measurements.