Improving demand forecasting practices in the industrial context

Demand forecasting is one of the fundamental managerial tasks. Most companies do not know their future demands, so they have to make plans based on demand forecasts. The literature offers many methods and approaches for producing forecasts. When selecting the forecasting approach, companies need to estimate the benefits provided by particular methods, as well as the resources that applying the methods call for. Former literature points out that even though many forecasting methods are available, selecting a suitable approach and implementing and managing it is a complex cross-functional matter. However, research that focuses on the managerial side of forecasting is relatively rare. This thesis explores the managerial problems that are involved when demand forecasting methods are applied in a context where a company produces products for other manufacturing companies. Industrial companies have some characteristics that differ from consumer companies, e.g. typically a lower number of customers and closer relationships with customers than in consumer companies. The research questions of this thesis are: 1. What kind of challenges are there in organizing an adequate forecasting process in the industrial context? 2. What kind of tools of analysis can be utilized to support the improvement of the forecasting process? The main methodological approach in this study is design science, where the main objective is to develop tentative solutions to real-life problems. The research data has been collected from two organizations. Managerial problems in organizing demand forecasting can be found in four interlinked areas: 1. defining the operational environment for forecasting, 2. defining the forecasting methods, 3. defining the organizational responsibilities, and 4. defining the forecasting performance measurement process. In all these areas, examples of managerial problems are described, and approaches for mitigating these problems are outlined.

O método dialético e a análise do real

Ao evidenciar que as relações estabelecidas por homens e mulheres com o meio concreto engendram o real, a dialética torna exequível a revolução do status quo por possibilitar a compreensão de que o mundo é sempre resultado da práxis humana, seja ela marcada por relações de dominação que reificam e fetichizam a prática social, seja marcada por relações que operam a humanização dos homens e mulheres. Ao romper com os fetiches, ou seja, ao perceber que os objetos não devem sujeitá-los, homens e mulheres avançam de encontro à reificação, alçando-se a possibilidade de revolucionar suas condições de existência. Assim, o rompimento da pseudoconcreticidade ocorre no momento em que se evidencia que a realidade social se concretiza por meio das condições de produção e reprodução da existência social das pessoas, que é em nossa sociedade marcada pela luta de classes. Este processo de rompimento exige um esforço construtor de uma interpretação do real que vá para além de uma representação caótica do todo, típico das vivências cotidianas. Este artigo postula que o método materialista histórico dialético pode auxiliar neste processo. Partindo desta constatação, elabora-se reflexão sobre este método de análise do real.

Real-time Musical Pair Improvisation on Mobile Devices

This thesis discusses the design and implementation of a real-time musical pair improvisation scenario for mobile devices. In the scenario transferring musical information over a network connection was required. The suitability of available wireless communication technologies was evaluated and communication was analyzed and designed on multiple layers of TCP/IP protocol stack. Also an application layer protocol was designed and implemented for the scenario. The implementation was integrated into a mobile musical software for children using available software components and libraries although the used platform lead to hardware and software constraints. Software limitations were taken into account in design. The results show that real-time musical improvisation can be implemented with wireless communication and mobile technology. The results also show that link layer had the most significant effect on real-time communication in the scenario.

Internationalization of an SME through FDI as mode of entry - Case Real Estate Company

This study examines international entry of an SME to Brazil using foreign direct investment as a mode of entry. The case company discussed is a small real estate investment company that has operated in Finland and has recently internationalized to Brazil. The work examines how does an SME internationalize, what entry mode is advisable to use and it gives a brief insight of the Brazilian market today.

How real are real numbers?

We discuss mathematical and physical arguments against continuity and in favor of discreteness, with particular emphasis on the ideas of Émile Borel (1871-1956).

Methods and Models for Accelerating Dynamic Simulation of Fluid Power Circuits

The objective of this dissertation is to improve the dynamic simulation of fluid power circuits. A fluid power circuit is a typical way to implement power transmission in mobile working machines, e.g. cranes, excavators etc. Dynamic simulation is an essential tool in developing controllability and energy-efficient solutions for mobile machines. Efficient dynamic simulation is the basic requirement for the real-time simulation. In the real-time simulation of fluid power circuits there exist numerical problems due to the software and methods used for modelling and integration. A simulation model of a fluid power circuit is typically created using differential and algebraic equations. Efficient numerical methods are required since differential equations must be solved in real time. Unfortunately, simulation software packages offer only a limited selection of numerical solvers. Numerical problems cause noise to the results, which in many cases leads the simulation run to fail. Mathematically the fluid power circuit models are stiff systems of ordinary differential equations. Numerical solution of the stiff systems can be improved by two alternative approaches. The first is to develop numerical solvers suitable for solving stiff systems. The second is to decrease the model stiffness itself by introducing models and algorithms that either decrease the highest eigenvalues or neglect them by introducing steady-state solutions of the stiff parts of the models. The thesis proposes novel methods using the latter approach. The study aims to develop practical methods usable in dynamic simulation of fluid power circuits using explicit fixed-step integration algorithms. In this thesis, twomechanisms whichmake the systemstiff are studied. These are the pressure drop approaching zero in the turbulent orifice model and the volume approaching zero in the equation of pressure build-up. These are the critical areas to which alternative methods for modelling and numerical simulation are proposed. Generally, in hydraulic power transmission systems the orifice flow is clearly in the turbulent area. The flow becomes laminar as the pressure drop over the orifice approaches zero only in rare situations. These are e.g. when a valve is closed, or an actuator is driven against an end stopper, or external force makes actuator to switch its direction during operation. This means that in terms of accuracy, the description of laminar flow is not necessary. But, unfortunately, when a purely turbulent description of the orifice is used, numerical problems occur when the pressure drop comes close to zero since the first derivative of flow with respect to the pressure drop approaches infinity when the pressure drop approaches zero. Furthermore, the second derivative becomes discontinuous, which causes numerical noise and an infinitely small integration step when a variable step integrator is used. A numerically efficient model for the orifice flow is proposed using a cubic spline function to describe the flow in the laminar and transition areas. Parameters for the cubic spline function are selected such that its first derivative is equal to the first derivative of the pure turbulent orifice flow model in the boundary condition. In the dynamic simulation of fluid power circuits, a tradeoff exists between accuracy and calculation speed. This investigation is made for the two-regime flow orifice model. Especially inside of many types of valves, as well as between them, there exist very small volumes. The integration of pressures in small fluid volumes causes numerical problems in fluid power circuit simulation. Particularly in realtime simulation, these numerical problems are a great weakness. The system stiffness approaches infinity as the fluid volume approaches zero. If fixed step explicit algorithms for solving ordinary differential equations (ODE) are used, the system stability would easily be lost when integrating pressures in small volumes. To solve the problem caused by small fluid volumes, a pseudo-dynamic solver is proposed. Instead of integration of the pressure in a small volume, the pressure is solved as a steady-state pressure created in a separate cascade loop by numerical integration. The hydraulic capacitance V/Be of the parts of the circuit whose pressures are solved by the pseudo-dynamic method should be orders of magnitude smaller than that of those partswhose pressures are integrated. The key advantage of this novel method is that the numerical problems caused by the small volumes are completely avoided. Also, the method is freely applicable regardless of the integration routine applied. The superiority of both above-mentioned methods is that they are suited for use together with the semi-empirical modelling method which necessarily does not require any geometrical data of the valves and actuators to be modelled. In this modelling method, most of the needed component information can be taken from the manufacturer’s nominal graphs. This thesis introduces the methods and shows several numerical examples to demonstrate how the proposed methods improve the dynamic simulation of various hydraulic circuits.

Tilintarkastajan rikosvastuun toteutuminen

Tutkielmassa pureudutaan tilintarkastajan rikosvastuun toteutumiseen teoriassa ja käytännössä. Vastuuta tarkastellaan tilintarkastuslain pohjalta, teoriakirjallisuuden perusteella sekä käytännön esimerkkien avulla. Tutkimus antaa seikkaperäisen kuvauksen siitä, millaiseen rikosvastuuseen tilintarkastaja voi joutua harjoittaessaan ammattiaan.

Quasiconformal mappings and inequalities involving special functions

This PhD thesis in Mathematics belongs to the field of Geometric Function Theory. The thesis consists of four original papers. The topic studied deals with quasiconformal mappings and their distortion theory in Euclidean n-dimensional spaces. This theory has its roots in the pioneering papers of F. W. Gehring and J. Väisälä published in the early 1960’s and it has been studied by many mathematicians thereafter. In the first paper we refine the known bounds for the so-called Mori constant and also estimate the distortion in the hyperbolic metric. The second paper deals with radial functions which are simple examples of quasiconformal mappings. These radial functions lead us to the study of the so-called p-angular distance which has been studied recently e.g. by L. Maligranda and S. Dragomir. In the third paper we study a class of functions of a real variable studied by P. Lindqvist in an influential paper. This leads one to study parametrized analogues of classical trigonometric and hyperbolic functions which for the parameter value p = 2 coincide with the classical functions. Gaussian hypergeometric functions have an important role in the study of these special functions. Several new inequalities and identities involving p-analogues of these functions are also given. In the fourth paper we study the generalized complete elliptic integrals, modular functions and some related functions. We find the upper and lower bounds of these functions, and those bounds are given in a simple form. This theory has a long history which goes back two centuries and includes names such as A. M. Legendre, C. Jacobi, C. F. Gauss. Modular functions also occur in the study of quasiconformal mappings. Conformal invariants, such as the modulus of a curve family, are often applied in quasiconformal mapping theory. The invariants can be sometimes expressed in terms of special conformal mappings. This fact explains why special functions often occur in this theory.

Erosão real e estimada através da RUSLE em estradas florestais, em relevo ondulado a fortemente ondulado

O objetivo deste trabalho foi avaliar as perdas de solo provenientes de trechos de estradas de uso florestal inseridas na região de Itaiópolis, Santa Catarina, que apresenta relevo ondulado a fortemente ondulado em dois tipos de solo: Cambissolo Húmico Distrófico típico e Argissolo Vermelho-Amarelo Distrófico típico. A erosividade da chuva foi calculada através de pluviogramas e de dados de pluviosidade da empresa Rigesa - Soluções em Embalagens MeadWestvaco; a erosividade do solo foi calculada em função dos resultados de análises, a declividade e comprimento de rampa foram medidos em campo e os fatores C e P, estipulados através da literatura. A hipótese de similaridade entre os valores reais monitorados pelo período de um ano e os valores estimados pela RUSLE foi evidenciada através de análise estatística, que apresentou alta correlação nos tratamentos avaliados e se manteve dentro do limite crítico proposto pela análise, validando, portanto, essa hipótese.

Solving Challenging Real-World Scheduling Problems

This work contains a series of studies on the optimization of three real-world scheduling problems, school timetabling, sports scheduling and staff scheduling. These challenging problems are solved to customer satisfaction using the proposed PEAST algorithm. The customer satisfaction refers to the fact that implementations of the algorithm are in industry use. The PEAST algorithm is a product of long-term research and development. The first version of it was introduced in 1998. This thesis is a result of a five-year development of the algorithm. One of the most valuable characteristics of the algorithm has proven to be the ability to solve a wide range of scheduling problems. It is likely that it can be tuned to tackle also a range of other combinatorial problems. The algorithm uses features from numerous different metaheuristics which is the main reason for its success. In addition, the implementation of the algorithm is fast enough for real-world use.

Tipos de substratos para germinação de sementes de palmeira- real-australiana (Archontophoenix alexandrae H. Wendl. & Drude)

Os objetivos deste trabalho foram avaliar o desempenho germinativo de sementes de palmeira-australiana em diferentes substratos e estabelecer a granulometria e intensidade de umedecimento adequado. A semeadura foi realizada com quatro repetições de 25 sementes em solo, areia, rolo de papel e em vermiculita de diferentes granulometrias: mícron (0,15-0,20 mm), superfina (0,21-0,30 mm), fina (0,30-0,50 mm) e média (1,19-0,50 mm), umedecidas com 0,5; 1,0; 1,5; e 2,0 vezes o seu peso em água. O teste de germinação foi conduzido a 20-30 °C, avaliando-se a primeira contagem do teste aos sete dias após a semeadura e, semanalmente, a germinação (plântulas normais) até os 35 dias, quando foram contabilizadas, também, as plântulas anormais e as sementes mortas. Calcularam-se o tempo médio e frequência relativa de germinação. A vermiculita mícron umedecida com uma vez o seu peso em água apresentou o melhor desempenho como substrato para o teste de germinação de sementes de palmeira-real-australiana, por possibilitar a máxima germinação das sementes (90%) e velocidade de germinação, demandando tempo médio de 15,3 dias nesse processo.