Relação chuva-vazão nos telhados verdes modulares sob chuva simulada induzida.

A perda de vegetação natural e o aumento das superfícies impermeáveis decorrentes da expansão urbana têm mostrado que os tradicionais sistemas de drenagem urbana são insuficientes e pouco adaptáveis às alterações de uso do solo. Uma das consequências disso é o aumento da velocidade do escoamento superficial (runoff) que favorece as inundações, com enormes prejuízos materiais e ambientais. As inundações ocorrem geralmente quando ha ocorrência de chuvas de alta intensidade. O objetivo deste trabalho foi estudar a contribuição dos telhados verdes modulares submetidos a chuvas de alta intensidade, 155mm/h com duração de 7,0 minutos para retenção e retardo do escoamento superficial. Além disso, foram determinados valores para parâmetros de modelos clássicos chuva-vazão: Método Racional (C) e CN (SCS), que poderá, futuramente, servir de modelagem hidrológica dos impactos da adoção de telhados verdes no controle das enchentes urbanas. A metodologia adotada foi de natureza experimental e envolveu a construção de bancadas com inclinação regulável para suporte dos módulos experimentais e um sistema para indução de chuvas com intensidade controlada. Foram estudados três modelos de sistema modular para telhado verde que permitem o armazenamento de água no fundo da bandeja que compõe os módulos, sendo 2 de 17,0 L (M-17 e F-17) e 1 de 4,0 L (M-4), nas condições de solo seco e solo úmido. Em cada módulo vegetado foram utilizadas 3 espécies de vegetação: Portulaca oleracea (Onze horas), Callisia repens (Dinheiro em penca) e Apnia cordfolia (Rosinha do sol). Os resultados demonstraram que os volumes retidos, calculados a partir da observação do runoff, nas diferentes situações, foram coerentes entre si e com dados relatados na literatura. Os módulos vegetados produziram os melhores resultados com solo seco e os piores resultados com solo úmido. O percentual médio de retenção, considerando todos os tipos de módulos, foi de 58% do volume total de água induzida, com retardo médio de 12 minutos no runoff. Os valores médios de C (Método Racional) foram 0,4, 0,48, 0,36, para os módulos M-17, M-4 e F-17, respectivamente e os de CN (SCS) foram 93, 95, 93, para os mesmos módulos. Conforme esperado, os maiores valores de CN foram para solos úmidos, mantendo a relação que quanto menor o volume retido, maior o runoff e o CN. O módulo F-17 foi o que apresentou melhor desempenho em todos os aspectos (redução do escoamento, retenção hídrica e retardo do runoff). Este estudo demonstra a boa contribuição que esse tipo de sistema pode proporcionar na retenção e retardo do escoamento superficial, mesmo para chuvas intensas de curta duração, principalmente após período de curta estiagem, situação comum em locais de clima tropical. Futuros estudos deverão avaliar o desempenho dos sistemas modulares de telhados verdes com outras características e intensidades de chuvas. A adoção de telhados verdes deve ser cautelosa, sobretudo pela carga extra que esse tipo de sistema representa.

Avaliação da influência do manejo agrícola no uso e cobertura das terras através de ferramentas de geoprocessamento e indicadores de qualidade dos solos na bacia hidrográfica do Córrego da Caçada - Paraty/RJ

A avaliação da qualidade dos solos e a redução da Mata Atlântica tem sido alvo de diversas pesquisas no Brasil e no mundo, principalmente quando estes estão atrelados ao recorte espacial de Unidades de Conservação. No entanto, tem sido difícil para os gestores dessas unidades a avaliação dos impactos ambientais gerados ao longo dos anos nas bacias hidrográficas, principalmente pela falta de investimentos. Esta dissertação teve por objetivo geral avaliar o atual estágio de degradação da bacia hidrográfica do Córrego da Caçada pertencente à Área de Proteção Ambiental Federal de Cairuçu, no município de Paraty RJ, analisando quantitativamente e qualitativamente a redução dos fragmentos de Mata Atlântica e estabelecendo relações com a degradação física e química dos solos dentro e fora dos fragmentos florestais. A metodologia utilizada para a redução ou avanço dos fragmentos de Mata Atlântica baseou-se no uso de fotografias aéreas do ano de 1956 e imagens de satélite de 2012, onde possibilitou a avaliação espaço-temporal do uso e cobertura das terras, através da produção de um mapa temático final. Além disso, foram elaborados mapas temáticos de reconhecimento da área de estudo, como o de hipsometria, de declividade, de orientação e forma das encostas, além da geração de perfis topográficos. Para a avaliação da qualidade física, química e biológica dos solos foram determinadas as curvas de distribuição granulométrica, a densidade relativa dos grãos sólidos e a densidade aparente, porosidade total, os limites de liquidez e plasticidade, a estabilidade dos agregados em água, análises morfológicas, a saturação de bases, a capacidade de troca catiônica (CTC), a saturação por alumínio, fósforo, pH e o carbono orgânico. Para tal, foi realizada a abertura de três perfis, sendo um em área de fragmento florestal e dois em áreas de pasto. O resultado das análises permitiu, segundo a Sociedade Brasileira de Ciência do solo, a classificação de dois tipos de solos na bacia, sendo: Cambissolo Háplico Tb Distrófico Típico em área fragmento florestal e em área de pasto, e um Latossolo Amarelo Tb Distrófico Típico em área de pasto. Os resultados de laboratório mostraram que os solos avaliados têm baixa fertilidade e valores variados nos resultados de física do solo. No entanto, além do histórico de uso do solo caracterizado pelas práticas rudimentares do manejo empregado pelos Caiçaras, o clima predominante na região possibilita um regime pluviométrico anual que passa dos 2.000mm de chuva/ano, caracterizando solos muito lixiviados e pobres quimicamente. Portanto, conclui-se que a relação das propriedades físicas e químicas avaliadas junto ao manejo inadequado ao longo dos anos tem apresentado um cenário de grandes dificuldades para a recuperação florestal na bacia hidrográfica do Córrego da Caçada, o que mostra a importância da avaliação dos impactos ambientais não só pelo recorte de bacias hidrográficas, como contextualizar seu posicionamento dentro de Unidades de Conservação, com legislações e objetivos específicos.

Mineração de dados para previsão de eventos extremos de precipitação

No presente trabalho foram desenvolvidos modelos de classificação aplicados à mineração de dados climáticos para a previsão de eventos extremos de precipitação com uma hora de antecedência. Mais especificamente, foram utilizados dados observacionais registrados pela estação meteorológica de superfície localizada no Instituto Politécnico da Universidade do Estado do Rio de Janeiro em Nova Friburgo RJ, durante o período de 2008 a 2012. A partir desses dados foi aplicado o processo de Descoberta de Conhecimento em Banco de Dados (KDD Knowledge Discovery in Databases), composto das etapas de preparação, mineração e pós processamento dos dados. Com base no uso de algoritmos de Redes Neurais Artificiais e Árvores de Decisão para a extração de padrões que indicassem um acúmulo de precipitação maior que 10 mm na hora posterior à medição das variáveis climáticas, pôde-se notar que a utilização da observação meteorológica de micro escala para previsões de curto prazo é suscetível a altas taxas de alarmes falsos (falsos positivos). Para contornar este problema, foram utilizados dados históricos de previsões realizadas pelo Modelo Eta com resolução de 15 km, disponibilizados pelo Centro de Previsão de Tempo e Estudos Climáticos do Instituto Nacional de Pesquisas Espaciais CPTEC/INPE. De posse desses dados, foi possível calcular os índices de instabilidade relacionados à formação de situação convectiva severa na região de Nova Friburgo e então armazená-los de maneira estruturada em um banco de dados, realizando a união entre os registros de micro e meso escala. Os resultados demonstraram que a união entre as bases de dados foi de extrema importância para a redução dos índices de falsos positivos, sendo essa uma importante contribuição aos estudos meteorológicos realizados em estações meteorológicas de superfície. Por fim, o modelo com maior precisão foi utilizado para o desenvolvimento de um sistema de alertas em tempo real, que verifica, para a região estudada, a possibilidade de chuva maior que 10 mm na próxima hora.

Linking climate change, rice yield, and migration: the Philippine experience

This study tests the hypothesis that climate change, through its rice productivity impacts, induces out-migration in the Philippines. Results show that climate change effects such as increasing night time temperature and extreme rainfall pattern, by way of reduction in rice yield and farm revenues, significantly increases the number of Overseas Filipino Workers. Findings also show that overseas migration of female workers is more sensitive to climate and rice productivity changes compared to male overseas migration. However, unlike overseas migration, the reduction in yield and farm revenues act as a constraint to domestic migration.

The great February 1986 flood [abstract]

EXTRACT (SEE PDF FOR FULL ABSTRACT): There were many similarities between the February 1986 storm and that of December 1964 and also December 1955. The 1964 storm hit hardest a little further north and the North Coast took the brunt of that storm. December 1955 also produced higher north coastal area runoff. December 1955 produced greater peaks in the central part of the state than the 1964 flood and is perhaps more comparable south of the Lake Tahoe-American River area. But the real surprise this time was the volume. Four reservoirs, Folsom, Black Butte, Pardee, and Comanche, were filled completely and became surcharged (storing more water than the designed capacity). The 10 day total rainfall amounted to half the normal annual totals at many precipitation stations. The February 1986 flood is a vivid reminder of the extremes of California climate and the value of the extensive system of flood control works in the state. Before the storm, especially in January, there was much concern about the dryness of the water year. Then with the deluge, California's flood control systems were tested. By and large the system worked preventing untold damage and misery for most dwellers in the flat lands.

A review of water year 1987 in northern California [abstract and figures]

EXTRACT (SEE PDF FOR FULL ABSTRACT): It seems that an average water year is a rare beast; 1987 was no exception. It turned out to be the ninth driest this century in Northern California's Sacramento River basin. I'd like to summarize for you some interesting facts about water year 1987 and how it affected rainfall, snowpack, runoff, and water storage in California.

ENSO and precipitation variability over Mexico during the last 90 years

Latin America has been shown to be susceptible to climatic anomalies during El Niño/Southern Oscillation (ENSO) events (eg, Aceituno 1988; Ropelewshi and Halpert 1987; Kiladis and Diaz 1989). While these studies have emphasized ENSO-related rainfall and temperature anomalies over Central and South America, less work has been done on the climatic effects of ENSO over the Mexican region. In this study we are investigating interannual and intraseasonal fluctuation in temperature and precipitation over the southwestern United States and Mexico since the turn of the century. We are particularly interested in the effects of ENSO on the interannual variability over this region. This report focuses on the association between ENSO and interannual variability of precipitation over Mexico.

Change in Pacific Northwest coastal ecosystems. Proceedings of the Pacific Northwest Coastal Ecosystems Regional Study Workshop, August 73-14, 1996, Troutdale, Oregon

Over the past one hundred and fifty years, the landscape and ecosystems of the Pacific Northwest coastal region, already subject to many variable natural forces, have been profoundly affected by human activities. In virtually every coastal watershed from the Strait of Juan de Fuca to Cape Mendocino, settlement, exploitation and development of resou?-ces have altered natural ecosystems. Vast, complex forests that once covered the region have been largely replaced by tree plantations or converted to non-forest conditions. Narrow coastal valleys, once filled with wetlands and braided streams that tempered storm runoff and provided salmon habitat, were drained, filled, or have otherwise been altered to create land for agriculture and other uses. Tideflats and saltmarshes in both large and small estuaries were filled for industrial, commercial, and other urban uses. Many estuaries, including that of the Columbia River, have been channeled, deepened, and jettied to provide for safe, reliable navigation. The prodigious rainfall in the region, once buffered by dense vegetation and complex river and stream habitat, now surges down sirfiplified stream channels laden with increased burdens of sediment and debris. Although these and many other changes have occurred incrementally over time and in widely separated areas, their sum can now be seen to have significantly affected the natural productivity of the region and, as a consequence, changed the economic structure of its human communities. This activity has taken place in a region already shaped by many interacting and dynamic natural forces. Large-scale ocean circulation patterns, which vary over long time periods, determine the strength and location of currents along the coast, and thus affect conditions in the nearshore ocean and estuaries throughout the region. Periodic seasonal differences in the weather and ocean act on shorter time scales; winters are typically wet with storms from the southwest while summers tend to be dry with winds from the northwest. Some phenomena are episodic, such as El Nifio events, which alter weather, marine habitats, and the distribution and survival of marine organisms. Other oceanic and atmospheric changes operate more slowly; over time scales of decades, centuries, and longer. Episodic geologic events also punctuate the region, such as volcanic eruptions that discharge widespread blankets of ash, frequent minor earthquakes, and major subduction zone earthquakes each 300 to 500 years that release accumulated tectonic strain, dropping stretches of ocean shoreline, inundating estuaries and coastal valleys, and triggering landslides that reshape stream profiles. While these many natural processes have altered, sometimes dramatically, the Pacific Northwest coastal region, these same processes have formed productive marine and coastal ecosystems, and many of the species in these systems have adapted to the variable environmental conditions of the region to ensure their long-term survival.

Prediction of mesophotic coral distributions in the Au‘au Channel, Hawaii

The primary objective of this study was to predict the distribution of mesophotic hard corals in the Au‘au Channel in the Main Hawaiian Islands (MHI). Mesophotic hard corals are light-dependent corals adapted to the low light conditions at approximately 30 to 150 m in depth. Several physical factors potentially influence their spatial distribution, including aragonite saturation, alkalinity, pH, currents, water temperature, hard substrate availability and the availability of light at depth. Mesophotic corals and mesophotic coral ecosystems (MCEs) have increasingly been the subject of scientific study because they are being threatened by a growing number of anthropogenic stressors. They are the focus of this spatial modeling effort because the Hawaiian Islands Humpback Whale National Marine Sanctuary (HIHWNMS) is exploring the expansion of its scope—beyond the protection of the North Pacific Humpback Whale (Megaptera novaeangliae)—to include the conservation and management of these ecosystem components. The present study helps to address this need by examining the distribution of mesophotic corals in the Au‘au Channel region. This area is located between the islands of Maui, Lanai, Molokai and Kahoolawe, and includes parts of the Kealaikahiki, Alalākeiki and Kalohi Channels. It is unique, not only in terms of its geology, but also in terms of its physical oceanography and local weather patterns. Several physical conditions make it an ideal place for mesophotic hard corals, including consistently good water quality and clarity because it is flushed by tidal currents semi-diurnally; it has low amounts of rainfall and sediment run-off from the nearby land; and it is largely protected from seasonally strong wind and wave energy. Combined, these oceanographic and weather conditions create patches of comparatively warm, calm, clear waters that remain relatively stable through time. Freely available Maximum Entropy modeling software (MaxEnt 3.3.3e) was used to create four separate maps of predicted habitat suitability for: (1) all mesophotic hard corals combined, (2) Leptoseris, (3) Montipora and (4) Porites genera. MaxEnt works by analyzing the distribution of environmental variables where species are present, so it can find other areas that meet all of the same environmental constraints. Several steps (Figure 0.1) were required to produce and validate four ensemble predictive models (i.e., models with 10 replicates each). Approximately 2,000 georeferenced records containing information about mesophotic coral occurrence and 34 environmental predictors describing the seafloor’s depth, vertical structure, available light, surface temperature, currents and distance from shoreline at three spatial scales were used to train MaxEnt. Fifty percent of the 1,989 records were randomly chosen and set aside to assess each model replicate’s performance using Receiver Operating Characteristic (ROC), Area Under the Curve (AUC) values. An additional 1,646 records were also randomly chosen and set aside to independently assess the predictive accuracy of the four ensemble models. Suitability thresholds for these models (denoting where corals were predicted to be present/absent) were chosen by finding where the maximum number of correctly predicted presence and absence records intersected on each ROC curve. Permutation importance and jackknife analysis were used to quantify the contribution of each environmental variable to the four ensemble models.

An ecological characterization of the marine resources of Vieques, Puerto Rico. Part I: Historical data synthesis

From the 1940s until 2003, portions of the island of Vieques, a municipality within the Commonwealth of Puerto Rico, were used by the US Navy as a base and training facility, resulting in development and zoning history that differ in comparison to other Caribbean islands. The majority of former Navy lands are now under the jurisdiction of the Department of the Interior’s Fish and Wildlife Service as a National Wildlife Refuge, while a smaller percentage of land was transferred to the Vieques municipality and the Puerto Rico Conservation Trust. An analysis of the distribution and status of the marine resources is timely in light of the recent land transfer, increases in development and tourism, and potential changes in marine zoning around the island. To meet this need, NOAA’s Biogeography Branch, in cooperation with the Office of Response and Restoration and other local and regional partners, conducted Part I of an ecological characterization to integrate historical data and research into a synthesis report. The overall objective of this report is to provide resource managers and residents a comprehensive characterization of the marine resources of Vieques to support research, monitoring, and management. For example, knowledge of the spatial distribution of physical features, habitats, and biological communities is necessary to make an informed decision of the establishment and placement of a marine protected area (MPA). The report is divided into chapters based on the physical environment (e.g., climate, geology, bathymetry), habitat types (e.g., reefs and hardbottom, seagrasses, mangroves) and major faunal groups (e.g. fish, turtles, birds). Each section includes five subsections: an overview, description of the relevant literature, methods of analysis, information on the distribution, status and trends of the particular resource, and a discussion of ecological linkages with other components of the Vieques marine ecosystem and surrounding environment. The physical environment of Vieques is similar to other islands within the Greater Antilles chain, with some distinctions. The warm, tropical climate of Vieques, mediated by the northeasterly trade winds, is characterized by a dry season (December-April) and a rainy season (May-November), the latter of which is characterized by the occasional passage of tropical cyclones. Compared to mainland Puerto Rico, Vieques is characterized by lower elevation, less annual precipitation, and higher average temperatures. The amount of annual precipitation also varies spatially within Vieques, with the western portion of the island receiving higher amounts of rainfall than further east. While the North Equatorial Current dominates the circulation pattern in the Greater Antilles region, small scale current patterns specific to Vieques are not as well characterized. These physical processes are important factors mitigating the distribution and composition of marine benthic habitats around Vieques. In general, the topography of Vieques is characterized by rolling hills. Mt. Pirata, the tallest point at 301 m, is located near the southwest coast. In the absence of island wide sedimentation measurements, information on land cover, slope, precipitation, and soil type were used to estimate relative erosion potential and sediment delivery for each watershed. While slope and precipitation amount are the primary driving factors controlling runoff, land use practices such as urban development, military activity, road construction, and agriculture can increase the delivery of pollution and sediments to coastal waters. Due to the recent land transfer, increased development and tourism is expected, which may result in changes in the input of sediments to the coastal environment.

Southern California's megaflood event of ca. 1605 AD linked to large-scale atmospheric forcing

A distinct, 1- to 2-cm-thick flood deposit found in Santa Barbara Basin with a varve-date of 1605 AD ± 5 years testifies to an intensity of precipitation that remains unmatched for later periods when historical or instrumental records can be compared against the varve record. The 1605 AD ± 5 event correlates well with Enzel's (1992) finding of a Silver Lake playa perennial lake at the terminus of the Mojave River (carbon-14-dated 1560 AD ± 90 years), in relative proximity to the rainfall catchment area draining into Santa Barbara Basin. According to Enzel, such a persistent flooding of the Silver Lake playa occurred only once during the last 3,500 years and required a sequence of floods, each comparable in magnitude to the largest floods in the modern record. To gain confidence in dating of the 1605 AD ± 5 event, we compare Southern California's sedimentary evidence against historical reports and multi-proxy time-series that indicate unusual climatic events or are sensitive to changes in large-scale atmospheric circulation patterns. The emerging pattern supports previous suggestions that the first decade of the 17th century was marked by a rapid cooling of the Northern Hemisphere, with some indications for global coverage. A burst of volcanism and the occurrence of El Nino seem to have contributed to the severity of the events. The synopsis of the 1605 AD ± 5 years flood deposit in Santa Barbara Basin, the substantial freshwater body at Silver Lake playa, and much additional paleoclimatic, global evidence testifies for an equatorward shift of global wind patterns as the world experienced an interval of rapid, intense, and widespread cooling.

Using wildlife activity and antibiotic resistance analysis to model bacterial water quality in coastal ponds

Models that help predict fecal coliform bacteria (FCB) levels in environmental waters can be important tools for resource managers. In this study, we used animal activity along with antibiotic resistance analysis (ARA), land cover, and other variables to build models that predict bacteria levels in coastal ponds that discharge into an estuary. Photographic wildlife monitoring was used to estimate terrestrial and aquatic wildlife activity prior to sampling. Increased duck activity was an important predictor of increased FCB in coastal ponds. Terrestrial animals like deer and raccoon, although abundant, were not significant in our model. Various land cover types, rainfall, tide, solar irradiation, air temperature, and season parameters, in combination with duck activity, were significant predictors of increased FCB. It appears that tidal ponds allow for settling of bacteria under most conditions. We propose that these models can be used to test different development styles and wildlife management techniques to reduce bacterial loading into downstream shellfish harvesting and contact recreation areas.

The annual course of precipitation over much of the United States: observed versus GCM simulation

General Circulation Models (GCMs) may be useful in estimating the ecological impacts of global climatic change. We analyzed seasonal weather patterns over the conterminous United States and determined that regional patterns of rainfall seasonality appear to control the distributions of the Nation's major biomes. These regional patterns were compared to the output from three GCMs for validation. The models appear to simulate the appropriate seasonal climates in the northern tier of states. However, the spatial extent of these regions is distorted. None of the models accurately portrayed rainfall seasonalities in the southern tier of states, where biomes are primarily influenced by the Bermuda High.

Climatic changes reflected in laminated Santa Barbara Basin sediments

Dating of annually varved sediments of Santa Barbara Basin down to AD 1650 in absence of precise radiometric methods was achieved by (1) counting varves and determining mean annual sedimentation rates from x-radiographs, and (2) correlation with historical rainfall and tree-ring records.

Weather index insurance: Lessons learned and best practices for Bangladesh

WorldFish and the International Centre for Climate Change and Development (ICCCAD) held a two-day workshop on the topic of Weather Index-Based Insurance: Lessons Learned and Best Practices for Bangladesh. Weather index insurance is based on a predefined weather event which when triggered ensures automatic payout to farmers who have taken out insurance. For example, the climatic trigger could be a predefined consecutive number of days where rainfall is below a set level or when the floodwater level reaches above a certain point. Index insurance has been operating for about 10 years in many countries but is still at an early stage in Bangladesh, where there are two schemes currently being piloted and three other projects being developed. The aim of the two-day workshop was twofold: to ascertain the present state of index insurance in Bangladesh and elsewhere, and to work together to identify ways forward.