What’s behind Russia’s military build-up in Syria?

It seems unlikely that Moscow can hope for an outright victory in Syria’s civil war, so some kind of political compromise with the moderate opposition is in the offing. This, however, is at best a long shot given the hostility to Assad in the West and the intensity of the conflict in Syria.

Instead, the immediate priority seems to be to ensure a survival of the Syrian state and military institutions in the areas it can control, what one Russian observer called an “Alawite Israel” – a strip of land from the Mediterranean coast to Damascus, able to at least contain IS with some external support.

The Kremlin has consistently prioritised stability over revolutionary change and sovereign rights over humanitarian intervention. In fact, from the Russian point of view, the Western interventionist agenda of democratisation, which ignored local conditions, has made the situation in the Middle East worse – from Iraq to Libya and Syria.

Exploiting Human Resource Requirements to Infer Human Movement Patterns for Use in Modelling Disease Transmission Systems: An Example from Eastern Province, Zambia

In this research, an agent-based model (ABM) was developed to generate human movement routes between homes and water resources in a rural setting, given commonly available geospatial datasets on population distribution, land cover and landscape resources. ABMs are an object-oriented computational approach to modelling a system, focusing on the interactions of autonomous agents, and aiming to assess the impact of these agents and their interactions on the system as a whole. An A* pathfinding algorithm was implemented to produce walking routes, given data on the terrain in the area. A* is an extension of Dijkstra's algorithm with an enhanced time performance through the use of heuristics. In this example, it was possible to impute daily activity movement patterns to the water resource for all villages in a 75 km long study transect across the Luangwa Valley, Zambia, and the simulated human movements were statistically similar to empirical observations on travel times to the water resource (Chi-squared, 95% confidence interval). This indicates that it is possible to produce realistic data regarding human movements without costly measurement as is commonly achieved, for example, through GPS, or retrospective or real-time diaries. The approach is transferable between different geographical locations, and the product can be useful in providing an insight into human movement patterns, and therefore has use in many human exposure-related applications, specifically epidemiological research in rural areas, where spatial heterogeneity in the disease landscape, and space-time proximity of individuals, can play a crucial role in disease spread.

Navigating the Borderlands: Brian McGilloway as Contemporary Cartographer of the Liminal in the Ulster Landscape

Set in the borderlands between Letterkenny and Derry-Londonderry, a landscape scarred by geological fold, river and cartographer’s pen, the Ulster crime novelist Brian McGilloway chronicles the hopes and fears of a contemporary society unable to escape a complicated history, redolent and entwined with the voices of its ‘ghosts of its past.’ Through his choice of chief protagonist, An Garda Síochána officer Benedict Devlin, McGilloway turns detective to critically investigate the both the seemingly straightforward and the unseen dwelling in the rural Ulster landscape. Following in the footsteps of Nordic and Tartan Noir in making commentary on current societ,y McGilloway recognises the importance of the past in trying to reach an understanding of the present. His critique however goes beyond criminal behaviour motivated primarily by politics or religion, allowing a deeper and more meaningful diagnosis of the ‘state of the nation’. Place, name and event become especially important in contextualising the liminality of McGilloway’s real rural border settings. In doing so, McGilloway continues in the rich tradition of Ulster poet such as Heaney, MacNiece, Muldoon and Hewitt in trying to rationalise the man-made amidst the elemental in the land of both the ‘Planter & The Gael.’ History, language, tradition and the sacral are all instruments of investigation in helping McGilloway present a revealing pathology and atlas of our times to his readers. Turning literary investigator, the author contends that there is much to learn from this physiography, not just for the borderlands region, but for the wider countryside and society beyond. Keywords Cultural Atlas, Crime Fiction, Place, Poetry, Rural.

Old World megadroughts and pluvials during the Common Era

Climate model projections suggestwidespread drying in the Mediterranean Basin and wetting in Fennoscandia in the coming decades largely as a consequence of greenhouse gas forcing of climate. To place these and other “Old World” climate projections into historical perspective based on more complete estimates of natural hydroclimatic variability, we have developed the “Old World Drought Atlas” (OWDA), a set of year-to-year maps of tree-ring reconstructed summer wetness and dryness over Europe and the Mediterranean Basin during the Common Era.
The OWDA matches historical accounts of severe drought and wetness with a spatial completeness not previously available. In addition, megadroughts reconstructed over north-central Europe in the 11th and mid-15th centuries
reinforce other evidence from North America and Asia that droughts were more severe, extensive, and prolonged over Northern Hemisphere land areas before the 20th century, with an inadequate understanding of their causes. The OWDA provides new data to determine the causes of Old World drought and wetness and attribute past climate variability to forced and/or internal variability.

Decentralized Computation of Pareto Optimal Pure Nash Equilibria of Boolean Games with Privacy Concerns

In Boolean games, agents try to reach a goal formulated as a Boolean formula. These games are attractive because of their compact representations. However, few methods are available to compute the solutions and they are either limited or do not take privacy or communication concerns into account. In this paper we propose the use of an algorithm related to reinforcement learning to address this problem. Our method is decentralized in the sense that agents try to achieve their goals without knowledge of the other agents’ goals. We prove that this is a sound method to compute a Pareto optimal pure Nash equilibrium for an interesting class of Boolean games. Experimental results are used to investigate the performance of the algorithm.

The Determinants of Brownfields Redevelopment in England

This paper uses discrete choice models, supported by GIS data, to analyse the National Land Use Database, a register of more than 21,000 English brownfields - previously used sites with or without contamination that are currently unused or underused. Using spatial discrete choice models, including the first application of a spatial probit latent class model with class-specific neighbourhood effects, we find evidence of large local differences in the determinants of brownfields redevelopment in England and that the reuse decisions of adjacent sites affect the reuse of a site. We also find that sites with a history of industrial activities, large sites, and sites that are located in the poorest and bleakest areas of cities and regions of England are more difficult to redevelop. In particular, we find that the probability of reusing a brownfield increases by up to 8.5% for a site privately owned compared to a site publicly owned and between 15% - 30% if a site is located in London compared to the North West of England. We suggest that local tailored policies are more suitable than regional or national policies to boost the reuse of brownfield sites.

Compositional data-driven alternatives to single geochemical component maps

Conventional practice in Regional Geochemistry includes as a final step of any geochemical campaign the generation of a series of maps, to show the spatial distribution of each of the components considered. Such maps, though necessary, do not comply with the compositional, relative nature of the data, which unfortunately make any conclusion based on them sensitive
to spurious correlation problems. This is one of the reasons why these maps are never interpreted isolated. This contribution aims at gathering a series of statistical methods to produce individual maps of multiplicative combinations of components (logcontrasts), much in the flavor of equilibrium constants, which are designed on purpose to capture certain aspects of the data.
We distinguish between supervised and unsupervised methods, where the first require an external, non-compositional variable (besides the compositional geochemical information) available in an analogous training set. This external variable can be a quantity (soil density, collocated magnetics, collocated ratio of Th/U spectral gamma counts, proportion of clay particle fraction, etc) or a category (rock type, land use type, etc). In the supervised methods, a regression-like model between the external variable and the geochemical composition is derived in the training set, and then this model is mapped on the whole region. This case is illustrated with the Tellus dataset, covering Northern Ireland at a density of 1 soil sample per 2 square km, where we map the presence of blanket peat and the underlying geology. The unsupervised methods considered include principal components and principal balances
(Pawlowsky-Glahn et al., CoDaWork2013), i.e. logcontrasts of the data that are devised to capture very large variability or else be quasi-constant. Using the Tellus dataset again, it is found that geological features are highlighted by the quasi-constant ratios Hf/Nb and their ratio against SiO2; Rb/K2O and Zr/Na2O and the balance between these two groups of two variables; the balance of Al2O3 and TiO2 vs. MgO; or the balance of Cr, Ni and Co vs. V and Fe2O3. The largest variability appears to be related to the presence/absence of peat.

What defines a geochemical map? Implications for environmental assessment.

The environmental quality of land is often assessed by the calculation of threshold values which aim to differentiate between concentrations of elements based on whether the soils are in residential or industrial sites. In Europe, for example, soil guideline values exist for agricultural and grazing land. A threshold is often set to differentiate between concentrations of the element that naturally occur in the soil and concentrations that result from diffuse anthropogenic sources. Regional geochemistry and, in particular, single component geochemical maps are increasingly being used to determine these baseline environmental assessments. The key question raised in this paper is whether the geochemical map can provide an accurate interpretation on its own. Implicit is the thought that single component geochemical maps represent absolute abundances. However,because of the compositional (closed) nature of the data univariate geochemical maps cannot be compared directly with one another.. As a result, any interpretation based on them is vulnerable to spurious correlation problems. What does this mean for soil geochemistry mapping, baseline quality documentation, soil resource assessment or risk evaluation? Despite the limitation of relative abundances, individual raw geochemical maps are deemed fundamental to several applications of geochemical maps including environmental assessments. However, element toxicity is related to its bioavailable concentration, which is lowered if its source is mixed with another source. Elements interact, for example under reducing conditions with iron oxides, its solid state is lost and arsenic becomes soluble and mobile. Both of these matters may be more adequately dealt with if a single component map is not interpreted in isolation to determine baseline and threshold assessments. A range of alternative compositionally compliant representations based on log-ratio and log-contrast approaches are explored to supplement the classical single component maps for environmental assessment. Case study examples are shown based on the Tellus soil geochemical dataset, covering Northern Ireland and the results of in vitro oral bioaccessibility testing carried out on a sub-set of archived Tellus Survey shallow soils following the Unified BARGE (Bioaccessibility Research Group of Europe).

Independent Ireland

Although many Irish nationalists at the turn of the twentieth century expected Ireland to achieve self-government within their own lifetime, few could have anticipated its form or consequences: the promised land that they envisioned was to be achieved through political means rather than insurrection and partition. But while the violence of the revolutionary decade created the political structures that shape present-day Ireland, the social and economic changes of the final decades of the twentieth century, by rupturing cultural patterns that predated independence, arguably brought about a more profound dislocation. Within Southern Ireland, the focus of this essay, the long era between these periods of upheaval was initially characterised by the pursuit of national sovereignty and self-sufficiency. In contrast, the decades after the Second World War saw the gradual abandonment of that vision in favour of a more pragmatic policy of economic liberalisation. The resulting ‘modernisation’ saw many traditional aspects of Irish society replaced by individualistic values more typical of contemporary European society.

John Thompson: Seeing through China

In 1848, Karl Marx predicted that a flow of cheap commodities would be the heavy artillery which would batter down all Chinese walls and open up the country to the west (Marx, 1978, p. 477). The Scottish photographer John Thomson (1837-1921) was both chronicler of and participant in the early moments of this process. Thomson was a commercial photographer who first arrived in the Far East in 1862. He earned the moniker of 'China' in a decade-long stay during which he photographed what he considered to be the key aspects of its culture and landscape. In this body of work, Illustrations of China and its People (first published in 1874) is perhaps the most comprehensive. It explores, through two hundred photographs and accompanying texts, a series of phenomena from the macro-scale of landscape, infrastructure and industry to the smaller scales of streetscapes, domestic spaces, individual portraits, and other details of everyday life. Despite his own description of the volumes as encyclopedic, Illustrations is geographically quite limited. Thomson's explorations into the hinterland proceed up the country’s principal rivers from those coastal ports which had already been wrested into western hands during the Opium Wars (of the 1840s) and subsequently opened up to trade. This is perhaps one of the reasons why Illustrations has been described as an explicitly colonial text, a guide-book for the prospective settler whose content offered the strategic knowledge of land, culture and natural resources necessary if the territorial advantages of the coastal periphery were to extended to the interior (Jeffrey, 1981, p. 64). It can also be argued, however, that Thomson’s volume offered justification for a potential colonial presence. Faced with a civilization whose history was as sophisticated as the west, it depicts a culture that is static and moribund, its addiction to traditional values an impediment to progress. While this is perhaps most explicit in the texts of Illustrations of China, it can also be seen in the images whose uniform chemical rendering also serves to make an essentially diverse culture seem homogenous. Yet it is these images that distinguish Illustrations from previous attempts to collate China’s culture and landscape. Here, the mechanical precision of his camera captures a reality that often subverts the colonial narrative, confounding stereotypes as Thomson’s mass-produced images allow another China to emerge.

Protestantism, Spectacle, Motherhood and Vice: Dublin's New Pleasure Gardens

In 1748, Bartholomew Mosse, a curious combination of surgeon, obstetrician and entertainment impresario, established a pleasure garden on the northern fringes of Dublin. Ostensibly designed to fund the construction of a maternity hospital to be located adjacently, Mosse’s New Pleasure Gardens became one of the premier leisure resorts in Dublin. This was to have a profound effect on the city’s urban form. Within a few years the gardens became an epicentre of speculative development as the upper classes jostled to build their houses in the vicinity. Meanwhile, the creation nearby of Sackville Mall, a wide and generous strolling ground, established a whole section of the city dedicated to haute spectacle, display and leisure. Like other pleasure gardens in the British Isles, Mosse’s venture introduced new, commodified forms of entertainment. In the colonial context of eighteenth-century Ireland, however, ‘a land only recently won and insecurely held’ (Foster, 1988) by the Protestant Anglo-Irish settler class, the production of culture and spectacle was perhaps more significant than elsewhere. Indeed, the form of Mosse’s gardens echoed the private city gardens of a key figure in the Anglo-Irish aristocracy, while the hospital itself was constructed in a style of a Palladian country house, symbol of colonial presence in the countryside. However, like other pleasure gardens, the mix of music and alcohol, the heterogeneous crowd culled from across social and gender boundaries, and a landscape punctuated with secluded corners, meant that it also acquired a dubious reputation as a haunt of louche and illicit behaviours. The curious juxtaposition between a maternity hospital and pleasure garden, therefore, begins to assume other, hitherto hidden complexities. These are borne out by a closer examination of the architecture of the hospital, the shape of its landscape and the records of its patrons and patients.

RAIN EVENTS INFLUENCE SHORT-TERM FEEDING PREFERENCES IN THE SNAIL CEPAEA NEMORALIS

Terrestrial gastropods are both herbivores and detritivores, but the ratio between these two modes of feeding can be highly variable over time. While previous studies have examined long-term seasonal patterns in the consumption of fresh material, mechanisms explaining short-term variation in dietary preferences have not been explored. We used faecal analysis to determine how short-term variation in weather affects the ratio of herbivory to detritivory in the land snail Cepaea nemoralis. Averaged across sampling dates, c. 9% of the faeces were composed of fresh plant material, with the remainder consisting of plant litter and soil. Temperature, relative humidity and soil moisture did not affect the proportional consumption of fresh material; however, snails consumed more soil with increasing temperature. If there had not been a recent precipitation event, the mean proportion of fresh material in the faeces more than doubled on average; however, this increase only occurred in areas of low herbaceous cover. Our results suggest that an increased proportion of snails consume fresh material during dry periods to compensate for water losses. Moreover, our study highlights that studies of dietary composition in the field need to account for short-term variation in feeding
preferences caused by weather.

Adaptation and Evaluation of the Neighborhood Environment Walkability Scale in India (NEWS-India)

Physical inactivity is the fourth leading risk factor for global mortality, with most of these deaths occurring in low and middle-income countries (LMICs) like India. Research from developed countries has consistently demonstrated associations between built environment features and physical activity levels of populations. The development of culturally sensitive and reliable measures of the built environment is a necessary first step for accurate analysis of environmental correlates of physical activity in LMICs. This study systematically adapted the Neighborhood Environment Walkability Scale (NEWS) for India and evaluated aspects of test-retest reliability of the adapted version among Indian adults. Cultural adaptation of the NEWS was conducted by Indian and international experts. Semi-structured interviews were conducted with local residents and key informants in the city of Chennai, India. At baseline, participants (N = 370; female = 47.2%) from Chennai completed the adapted NEWS-India surveys on perceived residential density, land use mix-diversity, land use mix-access, street connectivity, infrastructure and safety for walking and cycling, aesthetics, traffic safety, and safety from crime. NEWS-India was administered for a second time to consenting participants (N = 62; female = 53.2%) with a gap of 2–3 weeks between successive administrations. Qualitative findings demonstrated that built environment barriers and constraints to active commuting and physical activity behaviors intersected with social ecological systems. The adapted NEWS subscales had moderate to high test-retest reliability (ICC range 0.48–0.99). The NEWS-India demonstrated acceptable measurement properties among Indian adults and may be a useful tool for evaluation of built environment attributes in India. Further adaptation and evaluation in rural and suburban settings in India is essential to create a version that could be used throughout India.

Dual Classification Revisited: Rodney Needham and Vertical Asymmetry aboard Scottish Trawlers

Drawing on ethnographic data collected while working as a deckhand on two Scottish trawlers, this article analyses the spatialisation of social, religious and economic inequalities that marked relations between crew members while they hunted for prawns in the North Sea. Moreover, it explores these inequalities as a wider feature of life in Gamrie, Aberdeenshire, a Brethren and Presbyterian fishing village riven by disparities in wealth and religion. Inequalities identified by fishermen at sea mirrored those identified by residents onshore, resulting in fishing boats being experienced as small 'floating villages'. Drawing on the work of Rodney Needham, this article suggests that these asymmetries can be traced along a vertical axis, with greater to lesser wealth and religiosity moving from top/above to bottom/below. The article seeks to understand the presence and persistence of these hierarchies at sea and on land, by revisiting dual classification within anthropological theory.