Transportation choices and the value of statistical life

This paper exploits an unusual transportation setting to estimate the value of a statistical life(VSL). We estimate the trade-offs individuals are willing to make between mortality risk andcost as they travel to and from the international airport in Sierra Leone (which is separated fromthe capital Freetown by a body of water). Travelers choose from among multiple transportoptions ? namely, ferry, helicopter, hovercraft, and water taxi. The setting and original datasetallow us to address some typical omitted variable concerns in order to generate some of the firstrevealed preference VSL estimates from Africa. The data also allows us to compare VSLestimates for travelers from 56 countries, including 20 African and 36 non-African countries, allfacing the same choice situation. The average VSL estimate for African travelers in the sample isUS$577,000 compared to US$924,000 for non-Africans. Individual characteristics, particularlyjob earnings, can largely account for the difference between Africans and non-Africans; Africansin the sample typically earn somewhat less. There is little evidence that individual VSL estimatesare driven by a lack of information, predicted life expectancy, or cultural norms around risktakingor fatalism. The data implies an income elasticity of the VSL of 1.77. These revealedpreference VSL estimates from a developing country fill an important gap in the existingliterature, and can be used for a variety of public policy purposes, including in current debateswithin Sierra Leone regarding the desirability of constructing new transportation infrastructure.

Prognostic factors in early-stage leiomyosarcoma of the uterus.

Uterine leiomyosarcomas (LMSs) are rare cancers representing less than 1% of all uterine malignancies. Clinical International Federation of Gynecology and Obstetrics (FIGO) stage is the most important prognostic factor. Other significant prognostic factors, especially for early stages, are difficult to establish because most of the published studies have included localized and extra-pelvian sarcomas. The aim of our study was to search for significant prognostic factors in clinical stage I and II uterine LMS. The pathologic features of 108 uterine LMS including 72 stage I and II lesions were reviewed using standardized criteria. The prognostic significance of different pathologic features was assessed. The median follow-up in the whole group was 64 months (range, 6-223 months). The 5-year overall survival (OS) and metastasis-free interval and local relapse-free interval rates in the whole group and early-stage group (FIGO stages I and II) were 40% and 57%, 42% and 50%, 56% and 62%, respectively. Clinical FIGO stage was the most important prognostic factor for OS in the whole group (P = 4 x 10). In the stage I and II group, macroscopic circumscription was the most significant factor predicting OS (P = 0.001). In the same group, mitotic score and vascular invasion were associated with metastasis-free interval (P = 0.03 and P = 0.04, respectively). Uterine LMSs diagnosed using standardized criteria have a poor prognosis, and clinical FIGO stage is an ominous prognostic factor. In early-stage LMS, pathologic features such as mitotic score, vascular invasion, and tumor circumscription significantly impact patient outcome.

Prediction of 18-month survival in patients with primary myelodysplastic syndrome. A regression model and scoring system based on the combination of chromosome findings and the Bournemouth score.

The predictive potential of six selected factors was assessed in 72 patients with primary myelodysplastic syndrome using univariate and multivariate logistic regression analysis of survival at 18 months. Factors were age (above median of 69 years), dysplastic features in the three myeloid bone marrow cell lineages, presence of chromosome defects, all metaphases abnormal, double or complex chromosome defects (C23), and a Bournemouth score of 2, 3, or 4 (B234). In the multivariate approach, B234 and C23 proved to be significantly associated with a reduction in the survival probability. The similarity of the regression coefficients associated with these two factors means that they have about the same weight. Consequently, the model was simplified by counting the number of factors (0, 1, or 2) present in each patient, thus generating a scoring system called the Lausanne-Bournemouth score (LB score). The LB score combines the well-recognized and easy-to-use Bournemouth score (B score) with the chromosome defect complexity, C23 constituting an additional indicator of patient outcome. The predicted risk of death within 18 months calculated from the model is as follows: 7.1% (confidence interval: 1.7-24.8) for patients with an LB score of 0, 60.1% (44.7-73.8) for an LB score of 1, and 96.8% (84.5-99.4) for an LB score of 2. The scoring system presented here has several interesting features. The LB score may improve the predictive value of the B score, as it is able to recognize two prognostic groups in the intermediate risk category of patients with B scores of 2 or 3. It has also the ability to identify two distinct prognostic subclasses among RAEB and possibly CMML patients. In addition to its above-described usefulness in the prognostic evaluation, the LB score may bring new insights into the understanding of evolution patterns in MDS. We used the combination of the B score and chromosome complexity to define four classes which may be considered four possible states of myelodysplasia and which describe two distinct evolutional pathways.

Changing healthcare: stakeholder perceptions of the burden of chronic disease and the value of teams, measurements and communication.

Canadian healthcare is changing. Over the course of the past decade, the Health Care in Canada Survey (HCIC) has annually measured the reactions of the public and professional stakeholders to many of these change forces. In HCIC 2008, for the first time, the public's perception of their health status and all stakeholders' views of the burden and effective management of chronic diseases were sought. Overall, Canadians perceive themselves as healthy, with 84% of adults reporting good-to-excellent health. However, good health decreased with age as the occurrence of chronic illness rose, from 12% in the age group 18-24 to 65% for the population =65 years. More than 70% of all stakeholders were strongly or somewhat supportive of the implementation of coordinated care, or disease management programs, to improve the care of patients with chronic illnesses. Concordant support was also expressed for key disease management components, including coordinated interventions to improve home, community and self-care; increased wellness promotion; and increased use of clinical measurements and feedback to all stakeholders. However, there were also important areas of non-concordance. For example, the public and doctors consistently expressed less support than other stakeholders for the value of team care, including the use of non-physician professionals to provide patient care; increased patient involvement in decision-making; and the use of electronic health records to facilitate communication. The actual participation in disease management programs averaged 34% for professionals and 25% for the public. We conclude that chronic diseases are common, age-related and burdensome in Canada. Disease management or coordinated intervention often delivered by teams is also relatively common, despite its less-than-universal acceptance by all stakeholders. Further insights are needed, particularly into the variable perceptions of the value and efficacy of team-delivered healthcare and its important components.

The Social Value of Being Ambivalent: Self-Presentational Concerns in the Expression of Attitudinal Ambivalence

We tested whether individuals can exert control over the expression of attitudinal ambivalence and if this control is exerted with self-presentational concerns. Using the self-presentation paradigm, participants reported more ambivalence about Genetically Modified Organisms ("GMO") in a standard and a self-enhancement (present yourself positively) conditions than in a self-depreciation (present yourself negatively) condition, on both felt (Experiments 1a and 2a) and potential ambivalence, in its cognitive (Experiments 1b and 2b) and affective components (Experiments 1b and 2c). The role of ambivalent attitudes in conveying a positive social value was confirmed by the fact that the above effect was found on a controversial attitude object (GMOs) but the opposite appeared on a non-controversial one (e.g. tooth brushing, a truism; Experiment 3). Such a reversal was obtained by directly manipulating the perception of controversy on GMOs (Experiment 4). Attitudinal ambivalence may thus serve an adaptive function, i.e. achieving a positive social value.

Diagnostic value of vestibulo-ocular reflex parameters in the detection and characterization of labyrinthine lesions.

OBJECTIVE: To evaluate the power of various parameters of the vestibulo-ocular reflex (VOR) in detecting unilateral peripheral vestibular dysfunction and in characterizing certain inner ear pathologies. STUDY DESIGN: Prospective study of consecutive ambulatory patients presenting with acute onset of peripheral vertigo and spontaneous nystagmus. SETTING: Tertiary referral center. PATIENTS: Seventy-four patients (40 females, 34 males) and 22 normal subjects (11 females, 11 males) were included in the study. Patients were classified in three main diagnoses: vestibular neuritis: 40; viral labyrinthitis: 22; Meniere's disease: 12. METHODS: The VOR function was evaluated by standard caloric and impulse rotary tests (velocity step). A mathematical model of vestibular function was used to characterize the VOR response to rotational stimulation. The diagnostic value of the different VOR parameters was assessed by uni- and multivariable logistic regression. RESULTS: In univariable analysis, caloric asymmetry emerged as the most powerful VOR parameter in identifying unilateral vestibular deficit, with a boundary limit set at 20%. In multivariable analysis, the combination of caloric asymmetry and rotational time constant asymmetry significantly improved the discriminatory power over caloric alone (p<0.0001) and produced a detection score with a correct classification of 92.4%. In discriminating labyrinthine diseases, different combinations of the VOR parameters were obtained for each diagnosis (p<0.003) supporting that the VOR characteristics differ between the three inner ear disorders. However, the clinical usefulness of these characteristics in separating the pathologies was limited. CONCLUSION: We propose a powerful logistic model combining the indices of caloric and time constant asymmetries to detect a peripheral vestibular loss, with an accuracy of 92.4%. Based on vestibular data only, the discrimination between the different inner ear diseases is statistically possible, which supports different pathophysiologic changes in labyrinthine pathologies.

Strong time dependence of the 76-gene prognostic signature for node-negative breast cancer patients in the TRANSBIG multicenter independent validation series.

PURPOSE: Recently, a 76-gene prognostic signature able to predict distant metastases in lymph node-negative (N(-)) breast cancer patients was reported. The aims of this study conducted by TRANSBIG were to independently validate these results and to compare the outcome with clinical risk assessment. EXPERIMENTAL DESIGN: Gene expression profiling of frozen samples from 198 N(-) systemically untreated patients was done at the Bordet Institute, blinded to clinical data and independent of Veridex. Genomic risk was defined by Veridex, blinded to clinical data. Survival analyses, done by an independent statistician, were done with the genomic risk and adjusted for the clinical risk, defined by Adjuvant! Online. RESULTS: The actual 5- and 10-year time to distant metastasis were 98% (88-100%) and 94% (83-98%), respectively, for the good profile group and 76% (68-82%) and 73% (65-79%), respectively, for the poor profile group. The actual 5- and 10-year overall survival were 98% (88-100%) and 87% (73-94%), respectively, for the good profile group and 84% (77-89%) and 72% (63-78%), respectively, for the poor profile group. We observed a strong time dependence of this signature, leading to an adjusted hazard ratio of 13.58 (1.85-99.63) and 8.20 (1.10-60.90) at 5 years and 5.11 (1.57-16.67) and 2.55 (1.07-6.10) at 10 years for time to distant metastasis and overall survival, respectively. CONCLUSION: This independent validation confirmed the performance of the 76-gene signature and adds to the growing evidence that gene expression signatures are of clinical relevance, especially for identifying patients at high risk of early distant metastases.

Achievement of VGPR to induction therapy is an important prognostic factor for longer PFS in the IFM 2005-01 trial.

In the 2005-01 trial, we have demonstrated that bortezomib-dexamethasone as induction therapy before autologous stem cell transplantation was superior to vincristine-adriamycin-dexamethasone. We conducted a post-hoc analysis to assess the prognostic impact of initial characteristics as well as response to therapy in patients enrolled in this study. Multivariate analysis showed that ISS stages 2 and 3 and achievement of response less than very good partial response (VGPR) both after induction therapy and after autologous stem cell transplantation were adverse prognostic factors for progression-free survival, the most important one being achievement of response less than VGPR after induction. Progression-free survival was significantly improved with bortezomib-dexamethasone induction therapy in patients with poor-risk cytogenetics and ISS stages 2 and 3 compared with vincristine-adriamycin-dexamethasone. In these 2 groups of patients, achievement of at least VGPR after induction was of major importance. This study is registered with EudraCT (https://eudract.ema.europa.eu; EUDRACT 2005-000537-38) and http://clinicaltrials.gov (NCT00200681).

Intracranial hypertension: what additional information can be derived from ICP waveform after head injury?

OBJECTIVE: Although intracranial hypertension is one of the important prognostic factors after head injury, increased intracranial pressure (ICP) may also be observed in patients with favourable outcome. We have studied whether the value of ICP monitoring can be augmented by indices describing cerebrovascular pressure-reactivity and pressure-volume compensatory reserve derived from ICP and arterial blood pressure (ABP) waveforms. METHOD: 96 patients with intracranial hypertension were studied retrospectively: 57 with fatal outcome and 39 with favourable outcome. ABP and ICP waveforms were recorded. Indices of cerebrovascular reactivity (PRx) and cerebrospinal compensatory reserve (RAP) were calculated as moving correlation coefficients between slow waves of ABP and ICP, and between slow waves of ICP pulse amplitude and mean ICP, respectively. The magnitude of 'slow waves' was derived using ICP low-pass spectral filtration. RESULTS: The most significant difference was found in the magnitude of slow waves that was persistently higher in patients with a favourable outcome (p<0.00004). In patients who died ICP was significantly higher (p<0.0001) and cerebrovascular pressure-reactivity (described by PRx) was compromised (p<0.024). In the same patients, pressure-volume compensatory reserve showed a gradual deterioration over time with a sudden drop of RAP when ICP started to rise, suggesting an overlapping disruption of the vasomotor response. CONCLUSION: Indices derived from ICP waveform analysis can be helpful for the interpretation of progressive intracranial hypertension in patients after brain trauma.

Apport de l'angiographie au vert d'indocyanine (ICG) dans la localisation des néovascularisations chororoidiennes occultes [Value of indocyanine green angiography in localization of occult choroid neovascularization]

PURPOSE: To determine the role of Indocyanin Green (ICG) angiography in localizing occult new vessels associated with age-related macular degeneration (ARMD) and assess the possibilities of ICG guided laser photocoagulations. PATIENTS AND METHODS: Fluorescein and ICG angiographies (IMAGEnet system) of 62 patients with occult new vessels (ONV), serous (SPED) or vascular (VPED) pigment epithelium detachment have been studied. RESULTS: Based on fondoscopic examination and fluorescein angiography, 43 eyes (69%) disclosed ONV, 8 (13%) SPED and 11 (18%) VPED. Choroidal neovascularisation was confirmed by ICG angiography in 37 ONV cases (86%), in 8 (72%) VPED cases, but in no SPED. Conversion of ONV in classical neovascular membranes was possible in 19 ONV cases (44%) and in 6 (54%) VPED cases, making a laser photocoagulation possible in 9 eyes (36%). CONCLUSION: ICG angiography plays an important role in the evaluation, classification and laser treatment of patients with ONV secondary to ARMD.

Electroencephalography (EEG) for neurological prognostication after cardiac arrest and targeted temperature management; rationale and study design.

BACKGROUND: Electroencephalography (EEG) is widely used to assess neurological prognosis in patients who are comatose after cardiac arrest, but its value is limited by varying definitions of pathological patterns and by inter-rater variability. The American Clinical Neurophysiology Society (ACNS) has recently proposed a standardized EEG-terminology for critical care to address these limitations. METHODS/DESIGN: In the TTM-trial, 399 post cardiac arrest patients who remained comatose after rewarming underwent a routine EEG. The presence of clinical seizures, use of sedatives and antiepileptic drugs during the EEG-registration were prospectively documented. DISCUSSION: A well-defined terminology for interpreting post cardiac arrest EEGs is critical for the use of EEG as a prognostic tool. TRIAL REGISTRATION: The TTM-trial is registered at ClinicalTrials.gov (NCT01020916).

Pretherapeutic gamma-glutamyltransferase is an independent prognostic factor for patients with renal cell carcinoma.

BACKGROUND: Gamma-glutamyltransferase (GGT) regulates apoptotic balance and promotes cancer progression and invasion. Higher pretherapeutic GGT serum levels have been associated with worse outcomes in various malignancies, but there are no data for renal cell carcinoma (RCC). METHODS: Pretherapeutic GGT serum levels and clinicopathological parameters were retrospectively evaluated in 921 consecutive RCC patients treated with nephrectomy at a single institution between 1998 and 2013. Gamma-glutamyltransferase was analysed as continuous and categorical variable. Associations with RCC-specific survival were assessed with Cox proportional hazards models. Discrimination was measured with the C-index. Decision-curve analysis was used to evaluate the clinical net benefit. The median postoperative follow-up was 45 months. RESULTS: Median pretherapeutic serum GGT level was 25 U l(-1). Gamma-glutamyltransferase levels increased with advancing T (P<0.001), N (P=0.006) and M stages (P<0.001), higher grades (P<0.001), and presence of tumour necrosis (P<0.001). An increase of GGT by 10 U l(-1) was associated with an increase in the risk of death from RCC by 4% (HR 1.04, P<0.001). Based on recursive partitioning-based survival tree analysis, we defined four prognostic categories of GGT: normal low (<17.5 U l(-1)), normal high (17.5 to <34.5 U l(-1)), elevated (34.5 to <181.5 U l(-1)), and highly elevated (⩾181.5 U l(-1)). In multivariable analyses that adjusted for the effect of standard features, both continuously and categorically coded GGT were independent prognostic factors. Adding GGT to a model that included standard features increased the discrimination by 0.9% to 1.8% and improved the clinical net benefit. CONCLUSIONS: Pretherapeutic serum GGT is a novel and independent prognostic factor for patients with RCC. Stratifying patients into prognostic subgroups according to GGT may be used for patient counselling, tailoring surveillance, individualised treatment planning, and clinical trial design.