Trends in research on the possible effects of climate change concerning aquatic ecosystems with special emphasis on the modelling approach

Knowledge on the expected effects of climate change on aquatic ecosystems is defined by three ways. On the one hand, long-term observation in the field serves as a basis for the possible changes; on the other hand, the experimental approach may bring valuable pieces of information to the research field. The expected effects of climate change cannot be studied by empirical approach; rather mathematical models are useful tools for this purpose. Within this study, the main findings of field observations and their implications for future were summarized; moreover, the modelling approaches were discussed in a more detailed way. Some models try to describe the variation of physical parameters in a given aquatic habitat, thus our knowledge on their biota is confined to the findings based on our present observations. Others are destined for answering special issues related to the given water body. Complex ecosystem models are the keys of our better understanding of the possible effects of climate change. Basically, these models were not created for testing the influence of global warming, rather focused on the description of a complex system (e. g. a lake) involving environmental variables, nutrients. However, such models are capable of studying climatic changes as well by taking into consideration a large set of environmental variables. Mostly, the outputs are consistent with the assumptions based on the findings in the field. Since synthetized models are rather difficult to handle and require quite large series of data, the authors proposed a more simple modelling approach, which is capable of examining the effects of global warming. This approach includes weather dependent simulation modelling of the seasonal dynamics of aquatic organisms within a simplified framework.

The economic approach of advertising and the problem of allocating advertising budgets during a recession

The importance of advertising has changed in many aspects in the last decade, and mainly during the last years of the economic crisis. Economics traditionally did not find advertising a valuable factor until empirical studies demonstrated that advertisement affects consumer perception by means of indicating the quality of the underlying product. Consequently, products that are advertised more frequently, are more likely to be associated with a higher quality. Nevertheless, advertising is a strong tool in competition, which statement is confirmed by the recognition that increasing consumer knowledge contributes to the diffusion of innovation and to the reduction of research and development (R&D) costs. This contribution can be achieved nowadays by consumer interactivity, where companies deliberately rely on the involvement of their consumers. Recently, when companies were confronted to the global economic crisis, brand managers realized that allocating advertising budgets in a recession (considering the actual state of the economic conditions) is a highly important decision factor beside competition, consumer behaviour, trends or industrial conditions. Companies have to realize that their communication budgets are planned substantially in a different way in times of crisis than during an upsurge. Moreover, should a company make the best of maintaining their advertising budgets in recession times, it will indicate more trust towards their consumers and show a more favorable image towards their investors. This study assembles different approaches from the economics of advertising to draw conclusions for the subsequent analyses of advertising in times of a crisis. The main objective with the literature review is to show, that pro-cyclical actions (reducing advertising budgets in times of crisis and overspending during upsurge) of companies can lead to problems of profitability, consumer trust and competitiveness in the long run.

Winners and Losers in the Liberalized Energy Retail Sector in Hungary:A Co-evolutionary Approach

This paper examines the recent history of the Hungarian energy trading market in a co-evolutionary framework. Hungary is characterized by a mixed ownership structure with mainly multinational incumbents in energy retail and distribution, while the wholesale is dominantly owned by state-owned companies. The legal framework also has dual characteristics, with free-market regulation for industrial consumers and a regulated price regime for households. Our research method follows a longitudinal approach from the period of market liberalization in 2008 until 2013. We identified strong relationship between the individual and sector performance of the trading companies and the current political ideology and institutional regime.

Problems faced by beginning principals

The job of a principal is becoming more demanding and more critical each year. Principals are asked to undertake huge challenges and to succeed regardless of what obstacles lie ahead. The purpose of this study was to identify which Administrative Task Areas and Specific Task Areas caused the most difficulties for first- and second-year principals.^ A survey was taken of first- and second-year principals in Dade County, Florida. These beginning principals rated their level of proficiency for each administrative task area and each specific task within those areas. Participants rated their perceptions on a scale from one to four. The data were analyzed based on frequency distributions, percentages, means, and standard deviations.^ Beginning principals perceived themselves as least proficient in the administrative task areas of management and personnel duties. They believed their strongest areas were curriculum and instruction and school-community relations. Within these areas, the specific administrative task areas identified as most problematic were identifying proper procedures for construction in the schools, visiting classrooms to help teachers improve instruction, awareness of issues related to school law, establishing accounting procedures for the school's internal funds, and procedures for dismissing incompetent staff members.^ Many beginning principals surveyed volunteered to make recommendations for future beginning principals. Of these recommendations, the most popular responses addressed obtaining more experience with the budget and internal funds prior to becoming a principal. In addition, there was a strong need for more training dealing with school personnel and the importance of networking with a veteran principal.^ The principal training programs for five of the largest school districts in Florida were reviewed. These programs were found to incorporate a vast amount of the recommendations included in the literature. Florida is moving in the right direction toward excellence in the public schools. ^

Performance accountability in the federal-state transportation program: Factors affecting successful implementation

Governmental accountability is the requirement of government entities to be accountable to the citizenry in order to justify the raising and expenditure of public resources. The concept of service efforts and accomplishments measurement for government programs was introduced by the Governmental Accounting Standards Board (GASB) in Service Efforts and Accomplishments Reporting: Its Time Has Come (1990). This research tested the feasibility of implementing the concept for the Federal-aid highway construction program and identified factors affecting implementation with a case study of the District of Columbia. Changes in condition and performance ratings for specific highway segments in 15 projects, before and after construction expenditures, were evaluated using data provided by the Federal Highway Administration. The results of the evaluation indicated difficulty in drawing conclusions on the state program performance, as a whole. The state program reflects problems within the Federally administered program that severely limit implementation of outcome-oriented performance measurement. Major problems identified with data acquisition are: data reliability, availability, compatibility and consistency among states. Other significant factors affecting implementation are institutional barriers and political barriers. Institutional issues in the Federal Highway Administration include the lack of integration of the fiscal project specific database with the Highway Performance Monitoring System database. The Federal Highway Administration has the ability to resolve both of the data problems, however interviews with key Federal informants indicate this will not occur without external directives and changes to the Federal “stewardship” approach to program administration. ^ The findings indicate many issues must be resolved for successful implementation of outcome-oriented performance measures in the Federal-aid construction program. The issues are organizational and political in nature, however in the current environment resolution is possible. Additional research is desirable and would be useful in overcoming the obstacles to successful implementation. ^

Political corruption in the Caribbean Basin: A comparative analysis of Jamaica and Costa Rica

Political corruption in the Caribbean Basin retards state economic growth and development, undermines government legitimacy, and threatens state security. In spite of recent anti-corruption efforts of intergovernmental and nongovernmental organizations (IGO/NGOs), Caribbean political corruption problems appear to be worsening in the post-Cold War period. This dissertation discovers why IGO/NGO efforts to arrest corruption are failing by investigating the domestic and international causes of political corruption in the Caribbean. The dissertation's theoretical framework centers on an interdisciplinary model of the causes of political corruption built within the rule-oriented constructivist approach to social science. The model first employs a rational choice analysis that broadly explains the varying levels of political corruption found across the region. The constructivist theory of social rules is then used to develop the structural mechanisms that further explain the region's levels of political corruption. The dissertation advances its theory of the causes of political corruption through qualitative disciplined-configurative case studies of political corruption in Jamaica and Costa Rica. The dissertation finds that IGO/NGO sponsored anti-corruption programs are failing because they employ only technical measures (issuing anti-corruption laws and regulations, providing transparency in accounting procedures, improving freedom of the press, establishing electoral reforms, etc.). While these IGO/NGO technical measures are necessary, they are not sufficient to arrest the Caribbean's political corruption problems. This dissertation concludes that to be successful, IGO/NGO anti-corruption programs must also include social measures, e.g., building civil societies and modernizing political cultures, for there to be any hope of lowering political corruption levels and improving Caribbean social conditions. The dissertation also highlights the key role of Caribbean governing elite in constructing the political and economic structures that cause their states' political corruption problems. ^

Organic matter dynamics in the Florida coastal Everglades: A molecular marker and isotopic approach

Everglades National Park (ENP) is about to undergo the world's largest wetland restoration with the aim of improving the quality, timing and distribution of water flow. The changes in water flow are hypothesized to alter the nutrient fluxes and organic matter (OM) dynamics within ENP, especially in the estuarine areas. This study used a multi-proxy approach of molecular markers and stable δ 13C isotope measurements, to determine the present day OM dynamics in ENP. ^ OM dynamics in wetland soils/sediments have proved to be difficult to understand using traditional geochemical approaches. These are often inadequate to describe the multitude of OM sources (e.g. higher land plant, emergent vegetation, submerged vegetation) to the soils/sediments and the complex diagenetic processes that can alter the OM characteristics. A multi-proxy approach, however, that incorporates both molecular level and bulk parameter information is ideal to comprehend complex OM dynamics in aquatic environments. Therefore, biomass-specific molecular markers or proxies can be useful in tracing the sources and processing of OM. This approach was used to examine the OM dynamics in the two major drainage basins, Shark River Slough and Taylor River Slough, of ENP. Freshwater to marine transects were sampled in both systems for soils/sediments and suspended particulate organic matter (SPOM) to be characterized through bulk OM analyses, lipid biomarker determinations (e.g. sterols, fatty acids, hydrocarbons and triterpenoids) and compound-specific stable carbon isotope (δ 13C) determinations. ^ One key accomplishment of the research was the assessment of a molecular marker proxy (Paq) to distinguish between emergent/higher plant vegetation from submerged vegetation within ENP. This proxy proved to be quite useful at tracing OM inputs to the soils/sediments of ENP. A second key accomplishment was the development of a 3-way model using vegetation specific molecular markers. This novel, descriptive model was successfully applied to the estuarine areas of Taylor and Shark River sloughs, providing clear evidence of mixing of freshwater, estuarine and marine derived OM in these areas. In addition, diagenetic transformations of OM in these estuaries were found to be quite different between Taylor and Shark Rivers, and are likely a result of OM quality and hydrological differences. ^

Trading democracy for security? The effects of the international drug war on the quality of democracy in the Dominican Republic, 1996–2008

The purpose of the research is to study the relationship between international drug interdiction policies and domestic politics in fragile democracies, and to demonstrate how international drug control policies and the use of force fit the rhetoric of war, are legitimized by the principles of a just war, but may also cause collateral damage and negative unintended consequences. The method used is a case study of the Dominican Republic. The research has found that international drug control regimes, primarily led by the U.S. and narrowly focused on interdiction, have influenced an increasingly militarized approach to domestic law enforcement in the Dominican Republic. The collateral damage caused by militarized enforcement comes in the form of negative perceptions of citizen security, loss of respect for the rule of law and due process, and low levels of civil society development. The drug war has exposed the need for significant reform of the institutions charged with carrying out enforcement, the police force and the judicial system in particular. The dissertation concludes that the extent of drug trafficking in the Dominican Republic is beyond the scope of domestic reform efforts alone, but that the programs implemented do show some potential for future success. The dissertation also concludes that the framework of warfare is not the most appropriate for the international problems of drug traffic and abuse. A broader, multipronged approach should be considered by world policy makers in order to address all conditions that allow drugs to flourish without infringing upon democratic and civil rights in the process.

The order selection and lot sizing problem in the make-to-order environment

This research is motivated by the need for considering lot sizing while accepting customer orders in a make-to-order (MTO) environment, in which each customer order must be delivered by its due date. Job shop is the typical operation model used in an MTO operation, where the production planner must make three concurrent decisions; they are order selection, lot size, and job schedule. These decisions are usually treated separately in the literature and are mostly led to heuristic solutions. The first phase of the study is focused on a formal definition of the problem. Mathematical programming techniques are applied to modeling this problem in terms of its objective, decision variables, and constraints. A commercial solver, CPLEX is applied to solve the resulting mixed-integer linear programming model with small instances to validate the mathematical formulation. The computational result shows it is not practical for solving problems of industrial size, using a commercial solver. The second phase of this study is focused on development of an effective solution approach to this problem of large scale. The proposed solution approach is an iterative process involving three sequential decision steps of order selection, lot sizing, and lot scheduling. A range of simple sequencing rules are identified for each of the three subproblems. Using computer simulation as the tool, an experiment is designed to evaluate their performance against a set of system parameters. For order selection, the proposed weighted most profit rule performs the best. The shifting bottleneck and the earliest operation finish time both are the best scheduling rules. For lot sizing, the proposed minimum cost increase heuristic, based on the Dixon-Silver method performs the best, when the demand-to-capacity ratio at the bottleneck machine is high. The proposed minimum cost heuristic, based on the Wagner-Whitin algorithm is the best lot-sizing heuristic for shops of a low demand-to-capacity ratio. The proposed heuristic is applied to an industrial case to further evaluate its performance. The result shows it can improve an average of total profit by 16.62%. This research contributes to the production planning research community with a complete mathematical definition of the problem and an effective solution approach to solving the problem of industry scale.

The (ab)use of politics and eroticism in the culture of the Spanish Transition to democracy (1975–1982)

This dissertation analyzes the (ab)use of politics and eroticism within the framework of the Transition to democracy in Spain, its social and cultural impact—on literature, film, music, and popular media—, and its consequences. After a period of nearly four decades, when the country was subjected to a totalitarian regime, Spanish society underwent a process of democratic restoration. As a result, the two topics considered taboo during almost forty years of repression—i.e., politics and sexuality/eroticism—, gushed out fiercely. Every aspect of culture was influenced by and intrinsically linked to them. However, while we have been offered a more or less global approach to the Transition—the Transition as a whole—, and some studies have focused on diverse areas, no research to date has covered in depth the significance of those issues during that historical moment. Considering the facts stated above, it was imperative to conduct a more detailed analysis of the influence of both eroticism and politics on the cultural production of the Transition from different perspectives. Although the academic intelligentsia has often rejected them as expressions of mass culture, we must consider Pierre Bourdieu’s theories—in line with the tradition of classical sociology, that includes science, law, and religion, together with artistic activities—, Michel Foucault’s ideas on sexuality, and New Historicism, examining texts and their contexts. This work concludes that the (ab)use of both subjects during the Spanish Transition was a reaction to a repressive condition. It led to extremes, to societal transgression and, in most cases, to the objectification of women because of the impositions of a patriarchal society. It was, however, part of a learning and, in a sense, cathartic process that led, eventually, to the reestablishment of the status quo, to a more equitable and multicultural society where men, women, and any political or sexual tendencies are respected—at least, in theory.

Development of local homeland security networks in the state of Florida: A social network analysis approach

How do local homeland security organizations respond to catastrophic events such as hurricanes and acts of terrorism? Among the most important aspects of this response are these organizations ability to adapt to the uncertain nature of these "focusing events" (Birkland 1997). They are often behind the curve, seeing response as a linear process, when in fact it is a complex, multifaceted process that requires understanding the interactions between the fiscal pressures facing local governments, the institutional pressures of working within a new regulatory framework and the political pressures of bringing together different levels of government with different perspectives and agendas. ^ This dissertation has focused on tracing the factors affecting the individuals and institutions planning, preparing, responding and recovering from natural and man-made disasters. Using social network analysis, my study analyzes the interactions between the individuals and institutions that respond to these "focusing events." In practice, it is the combination of budgetary, institutional, and political pressures or constraints interacting with each other which resembles a Complex Adaptive System (CAS). ^ To investigate this system, my study evaluates the evolution of two separate sets of organizations composed of first responders (Fire Chiefs, Emergency Management Coordinators) and community volunteers organized in the state of Florida over the last fifteen years. Using a social network analysis approach, my dissertation analyzes the interactions between Citizen Corps Councils (CCCs) and Community Emergency Response Teams (CERTs) in the state of Florida from 1996–2011. It is the pattern of interconnections that occur over time that are the focus of this study. ^ The social network analysis revealed an increase in the amount and density of connections between these organizations over the last fifteen years. The analysis also exposed the underlying patterns in these connections; that as the networks became more complex they also became more decentralized though not in any uniform manner. The present study brings to light a story of how communities have adapted to the ever changing circumstances that are sine qua non of natural and man-made disasters.^

Pricing in the Hospitality Industry: An Implicit Markets Approach

The authors apply economic theory to an analysis of industry pricing. Data from a cross-section of San Francisco hotels is used to estimate the implicit prices of common hotel amenities, and a procedure for using these prices to estimate consumer demands for the attributes is outlined. The authors then suggest implications for hotel decision makers. While the results presented here should not be generalized to other markets, the methodology is easily adapted to other geographic areas.

Tourism in the Egyptian Red Sea Area: A Responsible Development Approach

Egypt has always been a world-renowned tourism destination of antiquity. A government policy of product diversification attempts to disperse tourists more evenly in the country. The Egyptian Red Sea coast is therefore targeted as a new tourism development zone. The author identifies the new development patterns in the Egyptian Red Sea area and discusses the potential tourism impact on the coastal environment. It is recommended that a responsible development approach be adopted for coastal and marine tourism in the Egyptian Red Sea area

Pollution generation in the Carajas region of Brazil: An extended input -output approach

The economic development of any region involves some consequences to the environment. The choice of a socially optimal development plan must consider a measure of the strategy's environmental impact. This dissertation tackles this problem by examining environmental impacts of new production activities. The study uses the experience of the Carajás region in the north of Brazil. This region, which prior to the 1960's was an isolated outpost of the Amazon area, was integrated to the rest of the country with a non-sophisticated but strategic road system and eventually became the second largest iron ore mining area in the world. Finally, in the 1980's, the area was linked, by way of a railroad, to the nearest seaport along the Atlantic Ocean. The consequence of such changes was a burst of economic growth along the railroad Corridor and neighboring areas. In this work, a Social Accounting Matrix (SAM) is used to construct a 2-region (Corridor and surrounding area), fixed price, Computable General Equilibrium (CGE) Model to examine the relationship between production and pollution by measuring the different pollution effects of alternative growth strategies. SAMs are a very useful tool to examine the environmental impacts of development by linking production activities to measurable indices of natural resource degradation. The simulation results suggest that the strategies leading to faster economic growth in the short run are also those that lead to faster rates of environmental degradation. The simulations also show that the strategies that leads to faster rates of short run growth do so at the price of a rate of environmental depletion that is unsustainable from a long run perspective. These results, therefore, support the concern expressed by environmental economists and policy makers regarding the possible trade-offs between economic growth and environmental preservation. This stresses the need for a careful analysis of the environmental impacts of alternative growth strategies. ^