Urban epidemiology of labor informality in Bogotá: A neighborhood interactions approach

Usando datos georreferenciados sobre mercado laboral para la ciudad de Bogotá, se desarrolla una estrategia empírica para identificar el efecto de la tasa de informalidad en el vecindario sobre la probabilidad individual de conseguir un trabajo informal. Se encuentra evidencia de la existencia de tales efectos del vecindario. Estos efectos funcionan de forma distinta para informalidad de trabajadores asalariados o independientes.

School management and sexual behavior of teenagers

This paper asks whether school based management may help reducing risky sexual behavior of teenagers. For this purpose we use student level data from Bogot´a to identify students from Concession School (CS), who are enrolled in public education system with a more school management autonomy at school level, and to compare them with those students at the traditional public education system. We use propensity score matching methods to have a comparable sample between pupils at CS and traditional schools. Our results show that on average the behavior of students from CS do not have a sexual behavior that differs from those in traditional public schools except for boys in CS who have a lower probability of being sexual active. However, there are important differences when heterogeneity is considered. For example we find that CS where girls per boys ratio is higher have lower teenage pregnancy rates than public schools with also high girls per boys ratios. We also find that teachers’ human capital, teacher-pupil ratio or whether school offers sexual education are also related to statistically significant differences between CS and traditional public schools.

Small-area variation in health care affecting the choice of cesarean delivery: the case of a Colombian health insurer

In the midst of health care reform, Colombia has succeeded in increasing health insurance coverage and the quality of health care. In spite of this, efficiency continues to be a matter of concern, and small-area variations in health care are one of the plausible causes of such inefficiencies. In order to understand this issue, we use individual data of all births from a Contributory-Regimen insurer in Colombia. We perform two different specifications of a multilevel logistic regression model. Our results reveal that hospitals account for 20% of variation on the probability of performing cesarean sections. Geographic area only explains 1/3 of the variance attributable to the hospital. Furthermore, some variables from both demand and supply sides are found to be also relevant on the probability of undergoing cesarean sections. This paper contributes to previous research by using a hierarchical model and by defining hospitals as cluster. Moreover, we also include clinical and supply induced demand variables.

The impact of a permanent Income shock on the situation of women in the household: the case of a pension reform in Argentina

Transfers to women may affect their bargaining power within the household and consequently their well-being. We analyze the effects of the 2004/2005 pension reform in Argentina, that resulted in an unexpected and substantial increase in permanent income for around 1.8 million women, on outcomes arguably related to women’s bargaining power within the household. We estimate the effects of the reform in the probability of divorce/separation, the distribution of household chores, and the probability of women being the head of the household, using a Difference-in-Differences approach. Our results show that despite the low divorce probability among seniors, transfers to senior women have substantial effects on their situation in the household. More specifically, we find that the reform had statistically significant effects on the probability of divorce/separation increasing it by 1.8 − 2.7 percentage points implying an increase of around 18 − 19% on the divorce/separation rate of 60 − 65 year old women. Moreover, the probability of being the head of the household also increased by 2.8−3.3 percentage points representing an increase of 7−19% in the probability amongst women of 60 − 65 years of age. In the case of married women, the probability of being the head of the household increased by 1.3 − 1.5 percentage points, which represents an increase of 20 − 22%. Results show that the distribution of household chores within the couples was also affected by the reform. More precisely, the probability that the wife is the only person in charge of the housework decreased by 5 percentage points, an 11% decrease. The participation of husbands in housework, however, did not change significantly.

Use of informal mobile telephony in low income households in Colombia

El acceso a la telefonía móvil en Colombia evidencia ciertas particularidades con respecto a otros países. En Colombia surgió una nueva alternativa de comunicación que consistía en la venta de minutos de celular en las calles y en pequeños negocios durante los primeros años de ésta década. En este documento se analizan las principales características de quienes usan esta modalidad de comunicación con base en una encuesta dirigida a usuarios y no usuarios de bajos ingresos. Se usa un modelo probabilístico para explicar las características de las personas que lo usan y se encuentra que las personas que están en la modalidad de contrato prepago y que viven en ciudades pequeñas tienen una mayor probabilidad de usar esta alternativa de comunicación. De otro lado se encuentra que quienes están con el operador dominante tienden a usar este servicio también de una forma más notoria. Estos resultados parecen indicar que los diferenciales de precios entre las llamadas off-net y on-net así como entre prepago y postpago son los que alimentaron el surgimiento de esta actividad

Body mass index as a standard of living measure: a different interpretation for the case of Colombia

We analyze the Body Mass Index (BMI) in a distinct way of its traditional use and it lets us use it as a proxy of standard of living for the case of Colombia. Our approach is focused on studying how far the people are from the normal range and not on the score of each one and this lets us to treat equally extreme cases as severe thinness and obesity. We use a probabilistic model (Ordered Probit) that evaluates the probability of being within the normal range or another level. We found that socioeconomic variables have a significant effect on the dependent variable and that there are no linear effects. Besides, people with difficulties for walking and adults have less probability of having a normal BMI.

Determinants of demand for antenatal care in Colombia

Even though antenatal care is universally regarded as important, determinants of demand for antenatal care have not been widely studied. Evidence concerning which and how socioeconomic conditions influence whether a pregnant woman attends or not at least one antenatal consultation or how these factors affect the absences to antenatal consultations is very limited. In order to generate this evidence, a two-stage analysis was performed with data from the Demographic and Health Survey carried out by Profamilia in Colombia during 2005. The first stage was run as a logit model showing the marginal effects on the probability of attending the first visit and an ordinary least squares model was performed for the second stage. It was found that mothers living in the pacific region as well as young mothers seem to have a lower probability of attending the first visit but these factors are not related to the number of absences to antenatal consultation once the first visit has been achieved. The effect of health insurance was surprising because of the differing effects that the health insurers showed. Some familiar and personal conditions such as willingness to have the last children and number of previous children, demonstrated to be important in the determination of demand. The effect of mother’s educational attainment was proved as important whereas the father’s educational achievement was not. This paper provides some elements for policy making in order to increase the demand inducement of antenatal care, as well as stimulating research on demand for specific issues on health.

An Empirical Examination of the Determinants of Foreign Direct Investment: A Firm-Level Analysis for the Colombian Economy

We use a large firm level data set to investigate the determinants of foreign direct investment(FDI) in Colombia. We estimate econometric models for the determinants of the probabilitythat a firm receives FDI, as well as for the factors that help to explain the foreign share in afirm’s capital. The results show that firms listed on the stock market, involved in foreign tradeactivities, and operating in sectors with greater capital intensity are more likely to be recipientsof FDI. Also, the probability of a firm receiving FDI is directly related to its size.

Reintroduction of the Eurasian otter (Lutra lutra) in Muga and Fluvià basins (north-eastern Spain): viability, development, monitoring and trends of the new population

Aquesta tesi es basa en el programa de reintroducció de la llúdriga eurasiàtica (Lutra lutra) a les conques dels rius Muga i Fluvià (Catalunya) durant la segona meitat dels 1990s. Els objectius de la tesi foren demostrar la viabilitat de la reintroducció, demostrar l'èxit de la mateixa, estudiar aspectes ecològics i etològics de l'espècie, aprofitant l'oportunitat única de gaudir d'una població "de disseny" i determinar les probabilitats de supervivència de la població a llarg termini. La reintroducció de la llúdriga a les conques dels rius Muga i Fluvià va reeixir, doncs l'àrea geogràfica ocupada efectivament es va incrementar fins a un 64% d'estacions positives a l'hivern 2001-02. La troballa de tres exemplars adults nascuts a l'àrea de reintroducció és una altra prova que valida l'èxit del programa. La densitat d'exemplars calculada a través dels censos visuals ha resultat baixa (0.04-0.11 llúdrigues/km), però s'aproxima al que hom pot esperar en els primers estadis d'una població reintroduïda, encara poc nombrosa però distribuïda en una gran àrea. La mortalitat post-alliberament va ser del 22% un any després de l'alliberament, similar o inferior a la d'altres programes de reintroducció de llúdrigues reeixits. La mortalitat va ser deguda principalment a atropellaments (56%). El patró d'activitat de les llúdrigues reintroduïdes va esdevenir principalment nocturn i crepuscular, amb una escassa activitat diürna. Les seves àrees vitals van ser del mateix ordre (34,2 km) que les calculades en d'altres estudis realitzats a Europa. La longitud mitjana de riu recorreguda per una llúdriga durant 24 hores va ser de 4,2 km per les femelles i 7,6 km pels mascles. Durant el període de radioseguiment dues femelles van criar i els seus moviments van poder ser estudiats amb deteniment. La resposta de la nova població de llúdrigues a les fluctuacions estacionals en la disponibilitat d'aigua, habitual a les regions mediterrànies, va consistir en la concentració en una àrea menor durant el període de sequera estival, a causa de l'increment de trams secs, inhabitables per la llúdriga per la manca d'aliment, fet que va provocar expansions i contraccions periòdiques en l'àrea de distribució. La persistència a llarg termini de la població reintroduïda va ser estudiada mitjançant una Anàlisi de Viabilitat Poblacional (PVA). El resultat va ser un baix risc d'extinció de la població en els propers 100 anys i la majoria dels escenaris simulats (65%) van assolir el criteri d'un mínim de 90% de probabilitat de supervivència. Del model poblacional construït es dedueix que un punt clau per assegurar la viabilitat de la població reintroduïda és la reducció de la mortalitat accidental. A l'àrea d'estudi, els atropellaments causen més del 50% de la mortalitat i aquesta pot ser reduïda mitjançant la construcció de passos de fauna, el tancament lateral d'alguns trams de carretera perillosos i el control de la velocitat en algunes vies. El projecte de reintroducció ha posat a punt un protocol per a la captura, maneig i alliberament de llúdrigues salvatges, que pot contenir informació útil per a programes similars. També ha suposat una oportunitat única d'estudiar una població dissenyada artificialment i poder comparar diversos mètodes per estimar la distribució i la densitat de poblacions de llúdrigues. Per últim, la reintroducció portada a terme a les conques dels rius Muga i Fluvià ha aconseguit crear una nova població de llúdrigues, que persisteix en el temps, que es reprodueix regularment i que es dispersa progressivament, fins i tot a noves conques fluvials.

Analytical methodologies based on X-Ray Fluorescence Spectrometry (XRF) and Inductively Couple Plasma Spectroscopy (ICP) for the assessment of metal dispersal around mining environments

La investigació que es presenta en aquesta tesi es centra en l'aplicació i millora de metodologies analítiques existents i el desenvolupament de nous procediments que poden ser utilitzats per a l'estudi dels efectes ambientals de la dispersió dels metalls entorn a les zones mineres abandonades. En primer lloc, es van aplicar diferents procediments d'extracció simple i seqüencial per a estudiar la mobilitat, perillositat i bio-disponibilitat dels metalls continguts en residus miners de característiques diferents. Per altra banda, per a estudiar les fonts potencials de Pb en la vegetació de les zones mineres d'estudi, una metodologia basada en la utilització de les relacions isotòpiques de Pb determinades mitjançant ICP-MS va ser avaluada. Finalment, tenint en compte l'elevat nombre de mostres analitzades per a avaluar l'impacte de les activitats mineres, es va considerar apropiat el desenvolupament de mètodes analítics d'elevada productivitat. En aquest sentit la implementació d'estratègies quantitatives així com l'aplicació de les millores instrumentals en els equips de XRF han estat avaluades per a aconseguir resultats analítics fiables en l'anàlisi de plantes. A més, alguns paràmetres de qualitat com la precisió, l'exactitud i els límits de detecció han estat curosament determinats en les diverses configuracions de espectròmetres de XRF utilitzats en el decurs d'aquest treball (EDXRF, WDXRF i EDPXRF) per a establir la capacitat de la tècnica de XRF com a tècnica alternativa a les clàssiques comunament aplicades en la determinació d'elements en mostres vegetals.

Origin and Availability of Large Cavities for Barrow’s Goldeneye (Bucephala islandica), a Species at Risk Inhabiting the Eastern Canadian Boreal Forest

Large secondary-nesting birds such as ducks rely on appropriate cavities for breeding. The main objective of this study was to assess the availability of large cavities and the potential of a managed boreal coniferous landscape to provide nesting trees within the breeding area of the eastern population of Barrow’s Goldeneye (Bucephala islandica), a cavity-nesting species at risk in Canada. Woodpecker surveys were conducted in both conifer and mixed-wood landscapes, and cavities were sought in line transects distributed in unharvested and linear remnant stands of balsam fir (Abies balsamea) and black spruce (Picea mariana) as well as in cutblocks. No Pileated Woodpeckers (Dryocopus pileatus) were detected in the breeding area of Barrow’s Goldeneye, but the species was present in the nearby lowland area in which trembling aspen (Populus tremuloides) is abundant. Only 10 trees (0.2% of those sampled) supported cavities considered suitable for Barrow’s Goldeneye in terms of dimensions and canopy openness. Most of the suitable cavities found during this study were nonexcavated apical (chimney) cavities in relatively short snags that showed advanced states of decay. A diameter-at-breast-height threshold was determined for each tree species, after which the probability of cavity occurrence was enhanced in terms of potential cavity trees for Barrow’s Goldeneye. Remnant linear forest sites had lower potential tree densities than did their unharvested equivalents. Large cavities were thus a rare component in this boreal landscape, suggesting that they may be a limiting factor for this population at risk. Current even-aged forest management that mainly relies on clear-cut practices is likely to further reduce the potential of this landscape to provide trees with suitable cavities.

Stability of a Seabird Population in the Presence of an Introduced Predator

We hypothesized that although large populations may appear able to withstand predation and disturbance, added stochasticity in population growth rate (λ) increases the risk of dramatic population declines. Approximately half of the Aleutian Islands' population of Least Auklets (Aethia pusilla) breed at one large colony at Kiska Island in the presence of introduced Norway rats (Rattus norvegicus) whose population erupts periodically. We evaluated two management plans, do nothing or eradicate rats, for this colony, and performed stochastic elasticity analysis to focus future research and management. Our results indicated that Least Auklets breeding at Kiska Island had the lowest absolute value of growth rate and more variable λ's (neither statistically significant) during 2001-2010, when compared with rat-free colonies at Buldir and Kasatochi islands. We found variability in the annual proportional change in population size among islands with Kiska Island having the fastest rate of decline, 78% over 20 years. Under the assumption that the eradication of rats would result in vital rates similar to those observed at rat-free Buldir and Kasatochi islands, we found the projected population decline decreased from 78% to 24% over 20 years. Overall, eradicating rats at Kiska Island is not likely to increase Least Auklet vital rates, but will decrease the amount of variation in λ, resulting in a significantly slower rate of population decline. We recommend the eradication of rats from Kiska Island to decrease the probability of dramatic population declines and ensure the future persistence of this important colony.

Avian mortalities due to transmission line collisions: a review of current estimates and field methods with an emphasis on applications to the Canadian electric network

Birds are vulnerable to collisions with human-made fixed structures. Despite ongoing development and increases in infrastructure, we have few estimates of the magnitude of collision mortality. We reviewed the existing literature on avian mortality associated with transmission lines and derived an initial estimate for Canada. Estimating mortality from collisions with power lines is challenging due to the lack of studies, especially from sites within Canada, and due to uncertainty about the magnitude of detection biases. Detection of bird collisions with transmission lines varies due to habitat type, species size, and scavenging rates. In addition, birds can be crippled by the impact and subsequently die, although crippling rates are poorly known and rarely incorporated into estimates. We used existing data to derive a range of estimates of avian mortality associated with collisions with transmission lines in Canada by incorporating detection, scavenging, and crippling biases. There are 231,966 km of transmission lines across Canada, mostly in the boreal forest. Mortality estimates ranged from 1 million to 229.5 million birds per year, depending on the bias corrections applied. We consider our most realistic estimate, taking into account variation in risk across Canada, to range from 2.5 million to 25.6 million birds killed per year. Data from multiple studies across Canada and the northern U.S. indicate that the most vulnerable bird groups are (1) waterfowl, (2) grebes, (3) shorebirds, and (4) cranes, which is consistent with other studies. Populations of several groups that are vulnerable to collisions are increasing across Canada (e.g., waterfowl, raptors), which suggests that collision mortality, at current levels, is not limiting population growth. However, there may be impacts on other declining species, such as shorebirds and some species at risk, including Alberta’s Trumpeter Swans (Cygnus buccinator) and western Canada’s endangered Whooping Cranes (Grus americana). Collisions may be more common during migration, which underscores the need to understand impacts across the annual cycle. We emphasize that these estimates are preliminary, especially considering the absence of Canadian studies.

Stochastic modelling of rainfall from satellite data

Satellite-based rainfall monitoring is widely used for climatological studies because of its full global coverage but it is also of great importance for operational purposes especially in areas such as Africa where there is a lack of ground-based rainfall data. Satellite rainfall estimates have enormous potential benefits as input to hydrological and agricultural models because of their real time availability, low cost and full spatial coverage. One issue that needs to be addressed is the uncertainty on these estimates. This is particularly important in assessing the likely errors on the output from non-linear models (rainfall-runoff or crop yield) which make use of the rainfall estimates, aggregated over an area, as input. Correct assessment of the uncertainty on the rainfall is non-trivial as it must take account of • the difference in spatial support of the satellite information and independent data used for calibration • uncertainties on the independent calibration data • the non-Gaussian distribution of rainfall amount • the spatial intermittency of rainfall • the spatial correlation of the rainfall field This paper describes a method for estimating the uncertainty on satellite-based rainfall values taking account of these factors. The method involves firstly a stochastic calibration which completely describes the probability of rainfall occurrence and the pdf of rainfall amount for a given satellite value, and secondly the generation of ensemble of rainfall fields based on the stochastic calibration but with the correct spatial correlation structure within each ensemble member. This is achieved by the use of geostatistical sequential simulation. The ensemble generated in this way may be used to estimate uncertainty at larger spatial scales. A case study of daily rainfall monitoring in the Gambia, west Africa for the purpose of crop yield forecasting is presented to illustrate the method.

The use of earth observation techniques to improve catchment-scale pollution predictions

Remote sensing can potentially provide information useful in improving pollution transport modelling in agricultural catchments. Realisation of this potential will depend on the availability of the raw data, development of information extraction techniques, and the impact of the assimilation of the derived information into models. High spatial resolution hyperspectral imagery of a farm near Hereford, UK is analysed. A technique is described to automatically identify the soil and vegetation endmembers within a field, enabling vegetation fractional cover estimation. The aerially-acquired laser altimetry is used to produce digital elevation models of the site. At the subfield scale the hypothesis that higher resolution topography will make a substantial difference to contaminant transport is tested using the AGricultural Non-Point Source (AGNPS) model. Slope aspect and direction information are extracted from the topography at different resolutions to study the effects on soil erosion, deposition, runoff and nutrient losses. Field-scale models are often used to model drainage water, nitrate and runoff/sediment loss, but the demanding input data requirements make scaling up to catchment level difficult. By determining the input range of spatial variables gathered from EO data, and comparing the response of models to the range of variation measured, the critical model inputs can be identified. Response surfaces to variation in these inputs constrain uncertainty in model predictions and are presented. Although optical earth observation analysis can provide fractional vegetation cover, cloud cover and semi-random weather patterns can hinder data acquisition in Northern Europe. A Spring and Autumn cloud cover analysis is carried out over seven UK sites close to agricultural districts, using historic satellite image metadata, climate modelling and historic ground weather observations. Results are assessed in terms of probability of acquisition probability and implications for future earth observation missions. (C) 2003 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.