948 resultados para Probabilistic renewable power forecast
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To explore the discriminatory power of matrix-assisted laser desorption ionization-time of flight mass spectrometry (MALDI-TOF MS) for detecting subtle differences in isogenic isolates, we tested isogenic strains of Staphylococcus aureus differing in their expression of resistance to methicillin or teicoplanin. More important changes in MALDI-TOF MS spectra were found with strains differing in methicillin than in teicoplanin resistance. In comparison, very minor or no changes were recorded in pulsed-field gel electrophoresis profiles or peptidoglycan muropeptide digest patterns of these strains, respectively. MALDI-TOF MS might be useful to detect subtle strain-specific differences in ionizable components released from bacterial surfaces and not from their peptidoglycan network.
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The traditionally coercive and state-controlled governance of protected areas for nature conservation in developing countries has in many cases undergone change in the context of widespread decentralization and liberalization. This article examines an emerging "mixed" (coercive, community- and market-oriented) conservation approach in managed-resource protected areas and its effects on state power through a case study on forest protection in the central Indian state of Madhya Pradesh. The findings suggest that imperfect decentralization and partial liberalization resulted in changed forms, rather than uniform loss, of state power. A forest co-management program paradoxically strengthened local capacity and influence of the Forest Department, which generally maintained its territorial and knowledge-based control over forests and timber management. Furthermore, deregulation and reregulation enabled the state to withdraw from uneconomic activities but also implied reduced place-based control of non-timber forest products. Generally, the new policies and programs contributed to the separation of livelihoods and forests in Madhya Pradesh. The article concludes that regulatory, community- and market-based initiatives would need to be better coordinated to lead to more effective nature conservation and positive livelihood outcomes.
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This school in the course of Marketing Business Management and specifically Entrepr This school in the course of Marketing Business Management and specifically Entrepreneurship in the discipline of Simulation - Games Marketing year was accordingly for the creation of a company in the computer business in business online simulator called Marketplace, in order to put into practice all the theoretical knowledge acquired during all previous semesters. This platform we were confronted with decisions in eight quarters corresponding 4 every year , in order to encourage learning in a practical way, a virtual and dynamic environment. Every quarter acareados with well organized tasks taking as a reference point defined strategies such as market research analysis, branding , store management after its creation , development of the policy of the 4Ps , identifying opportunities , monitoring of finances and invest heavily . All quarters were subjected decisions and are then given the results , such as: market performance , financial performance, investments in the future , the "health" of the company 's marketing efficiency then analyzed by our company , teaching and also by competition Balanced Scorecard ie , semi-annual and cumulative . For the start of activities it was awarded the 1st year a total of 2,000,000, corresponding to 500,000 out of 4 first quarter , and 5,000,000 in the fifth quarter in a total of 7,000,000 . The capital invested was used to buy market research, opening sales offices , create brands , contract sales force , advertise products created and perform activity R & D in order to make a profit and become self- sufficient to guarantee the payment of principal invested to headquarters ( Corporate Headquarters ) .
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This paper compares two well known scan matching algorithms: the MbICP and the pIC. As a result of the study, it is proposed the MSISpIC, a probabilistic scan matching algorithm for the localization of an Autonomous Underwater Vehicle (AUV). The technique uses range scans gathered with a Mechanical Scanning Imaging Sonar (MSIS), and the robot displacement estimated through dead-reckoning with the help of a Doppler Velocity Log (DVL) and a Motion Reference Unit (MRU). The proposed method is an extension of the pIC algorithm. Its major contribution consists in: 1) using an EKF to estimate the local path traveled by the robot while grabbing the scan as well as its uncertainty and 2) proposing a method to group into a unique scan, with a convenient uncertainty model, all the data grabbed along the path described by the robot. The algorithm has been tested on an AUV guided along a 600m path within a marina environment with satisfactory results
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Analysis of variance is commonly used in morphometry in order to ascertain differences in parameters between several populations. Failure to detect significant differences between populations (type II error) may be due to suboptimal sampling and lead to erroneous conclusions; the concept of statistical power allows one to avoid such failures by means of an adequate sampling. Several examples are given in the morphometry of the nervous system, showing the use of the power of a hierarchical analysis of variance test for the choice of appropriate sample and subsample sizes. In the first case chosen, neuronal densities in the human visual cortex, we find the number of observations to be of little effect. For dendritic spine densities in the visual cortex of mice and humans, the effect is somewhat larger. A substantial effect is shown in our last example, dendritic segmental lengths in monkey lateral geniculate nucleus. It is in the nature of the hierarchical model that sample size is always more important than subsample size. The relative weight to be attributed to subsample size thus depends on the relative magnitude of the between observations variance compared to the between individuals variance.
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Counterfeit pharmaceutical products have become a widespread problem in the last decade. Various analytical techniques have been applied to discriminate between genuine and counterfeit products. Among these, Near-infrared (NIR) and Raman spectroscopy provided promising results.The present study offers a methodology allowing to provide more valuable information fororganisations engaged in the fight against counterfeiting of medicines.A database was established by analyzing counterfeits of a particular pharmaceutical product using Near-infrared (NIR) and Raman spectroscopy. Unsupervised chemometric techniques (i.e. principal component analysis - PCA and hierarchical cluster analysis - HCA) were implemented to identify the classes within the datasets. Gas Chromatography coupled to Mass Spectrometry (GC-MS) and Fourier Transform Infrared Spectroscopy (FT-IR) were used to determine the number of different chemical profiles within the counterfeits. A comparison with the classes established by NIR and Raman spectroscopy allowed to evaluate the discriminating power provided by these techniques. Supervised classifiers (i.e. k-Nearest Neighbors, Partial Least Squares Discriminant Analysis, Probabilistic Neural Networks and Counterpropagation Artificial Neural Networks) were applied on the acquired NIR and Raman spectra and the results were compared to the ones provided by the unsupervised classifiers.The retained strategy for routine applications, founded on the classes identified by NIR and Raman spectroscopy, uses a classification algorithm based on distance measures and Receiver Operating Characteristics (ROC) curves. The model is able to compare the spectrum of a new counterfeit with that of previously analyzed products and to determine if a new specimen belongs to one of the existing classes, consequently allowing to establish a link with other counterfeits of the database.
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Doctoral dissertation, University of Tampere
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This booklet is designed to assist those who have been appointed as an attorney-in-fact, those who are considering the need for a power of attorney, or those who have an interest in the subject. This is a general overview of the laws governing powers of attorney and, like most general overviews it will apply in most situations, but not all. Small differences and individual circumstances can be very important in resolving legal problems and the general guidance provided by this booklet cannot take such differences into account. Keep in mind that the laws continually change and information in this booklet is not designed to take the place of legal counsel.
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The link between social inequalities and health has been known for many years, as attested by Villermé's work on the "mental and physical status of the working class" (1840). We have more and more insight into the nature of this relationship, which embraces not only material deprivation, but also psychological mechanisms related to social and interpersonal problems. Defining our possible role as physicians to fight against these inequalities has become a public health priority. Instruments and leads, which are now available to help us in our daily practice, are presented here.
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L'utilisation efficace des systèmes géothermaux, la séquestration du CO2 pour limiter le changement climatique et la prévention de l'intrusion d'eau salée dans les aquifères costaux ne sont que quelques exemples qui démontrent notre besoin en technologies nouvelles pour suivre l'évolution des processus souterrains à partir de la surface. Un défi majeur est d'assurer la caractérisation et l'optimisation des performances de ces technologies à différentes échelles spatiales et temporelles. Les méthodes électromagnétiques (EM) d'ondes planes sont sensibles à la conductivité électrique du sous-sol et, par conséquent, à la conductivité électrique des fluides saturant la roche, à la présence de fractures connectées, à la température et aux matériaux géologiques. Ces méthodes sont régies par des équations valides sur de larges gammes de fréquences, permettant détudier de manières analogues des processus allant de quelques mètres sous la surface jusqu'à plusieurs kilomètres de profondeur. Néanmoins, ces méthodes sont soumises à une perte de résolution avec la profondeur à cause des propriétés diffusives du champ électromagnétique. Pour cette raison, l'estimation des modèles du sous-sol par ces méthodes doit prendre en compte des informations a priori afin de contraindre les modèles autant que possible et de permettre la quantification des incertitudes de ces modèles de façon appropriée. Dans la présente thèse, je développe des approches permettant la caractérisation statique et dynamique du sous-sol à l'aide d'ondes EM planes. Dans une première partie, je présente une approche déterministe permettant de réaliser des inversions répétées dans le temps (time-lapse) de données d'ondes EM planes en deux dimensions. Cette stratégie est basée sur l'incorporation dans l'algorithme d'informations a priori en fonction des changements du modèle de conductivité électrique attendus. Ceci est réalisé en intégrant une régularisation stochastique et des contraintes flexibles par rapport à la gamme des changements attendus en utilisant les multiplicateurs de Lagrange. J'utilise des normes différentes de la norme l2 pour contraindre la structure du modèle et obtenir des transitions abruptes entre les régions du model qui subissent des changements dans le temps et celles qui n'en subissent pas. Aussi, j'incorpore une stratégie afin d'éliminer les erreurs systématiques de données time-lapse. Ce travail a mis en évidence l'amélioration de la caractérisation des changements temporels par rapport aux approches classiques qui réalisent des inversions indépendantes à chaque pas de temps et comparent les modèles. Dans la seconde partie de cette thèse, j'adopte un formalisme bayésien et je teste la possibilité de quantifier les incertitudes sur les paramètres du modèle dans l'inversion d'ondes EM planes. Pour ce faire, je présente une stratégie d'inversion probabiliste basée sur des pixels à deux dimensions pour des inversions de données d'ondes EM planes et de tomographies de résistivité électrique (ERT) séparées et jointes. Je compare les incertitudes des paramètres du modèle en considérant différents types d'information a priori sur la structure du modèle et différentes fonctions de vraisemblance pour décrire les erreurs sur les données. Les résultats indiquent que la régularisation du modèle est nécessaire lorsqu'on a à faire à un large nombre de paramètres car cela permet d'accélérer la convergence des chaînes et d'obtenir des modèles plus réalistes. Cependent, ces contraintes mènent à des incertitudes d'estimations plus faibles, ce qui implique des distributions a posteriori qui ne contiennent pas le vrai modèledans les régions ou` la méthode présente une sensibilité limitée. Cette situation peut être améliorée en combinant des méthodes d'ondes EM planes avec d'autres méthodes complémentaires telles que l'ERT. De plus, je montre que le poids de régularisation des paramètres et l'écart-type des erreurs sur les données peuvent être retrouvés par une inversion probabiliste. Finalement, j'évalue la possibilité de caractériser une distribution tridimensionnelle d'un panache de traceur salin injecté dans le sous-sol en réalisant une inversion probabiliste time-lapse tridimensionnelle d'ondes EM planes. Etant donné que les inversions probabilistes sont très coûteuses en temps de calcul lorsque l'espace des paramètres présente une grande dimension, je propose une stratégie de réduction du modèle ou` les coefficients de décomposition des moments de Legendre du panache de traceur injecté ainsi que sa position sont estimés. Pour ce faire, un modèle de résistivité de base est nécessaire. Il peut être obtenu avant l'expérience time-lapse. Un test synthétique montre que la méthodologie marche bien quand le modèle de résistivité de base est caractérisé correctement. Cette méthodologie est aussi appliquée à un test de trac¸age par injection d'une solution saline et d'acides réalisé dans un système géothermal en Australie, puis comparée à une inversion time-lapse tridimensionnelle réalisée selon une approche déterministe. L'inversion probabiliste permet de mieux contraindre le panache du traceur salin gr^ace à la grande quantité d'informations a priori incluse dans l'algorithme. Néanmoins, les changements de conductivités nécessaires pour expliquer les changements observés dans les données sont plus grands que ce qu'expliquent notre connaissance actuelle des phénomenès physiques. Ce problème peut être lié à la qualité limitée du modèle de résistivité de base utilisé, indiquant ainsi que des efforts plus grands devront être fournis dans le futur pour obtenir des modèles de base de bonne qualité avant de réaliser des expériences dynamiques. Les études décrites dans cette thèse montrent que les méthodes d'ondes EM planes sont très utiles pour caractériser et suivre les variations temporelles du sous-sol sur de larges échelles. Les présentes approches améliorent l'évaluation des modèles obtenus, autant en termes d'incorporation d'informations a priori, qu'en termes de quantification d'incertitudes a posteriori. De plus, les stratégies développées peuvent être appliquées à d'autres méthodes géophysiques, et offrent une grande flexibilité pour l'incorporation d'informations additionnelles lorsqu'elles sont disponibles. -- The efficient use of geothermal systems, the sequestration of CO2 to mitigate climate change, and the prevention of seawater intrusion in coastal aquifers are only some examples that demonstrate the need for novel technologies to monitor subsurface processes from the surface. A main challenge is to assure optimal performance of such technologies at different temporal and spatial scales. Plane-wave electromagnetic (EM) methods are sensitive to subsurface electrical conductivity and consequently to fluid conductivity, fracture connectivity, temperature, and rock mineralogy. These methods have governing equations that are the same over a large range of frequencies, thus allowing to study in an analogous manner processes on scales ranging from few meters close to the surface down to several hundreds of kilometers depth. Unfortunately, they suffer from a significant resolution loss with depth due to the diffusive nature of the electromagnetic fields. Therefore, estimations of subsurface models that use these methods should incorporate a priori information to better constrain the models, and provide appropriate measures of model uncertainty. During my thesis, I have developed approaches to improve the static and dynamic characterization of the subsurface with plane-wave EM methods. In the first part of this thesis, I present a two-dimensional deterministic approach to perform time-lapse inversion of plane-wave EM data. The strategy is based on the incorporation of prior information into the inversion algorithm regarding the expected temporal changes in electrical conductivity. This is done by incorporating a flexible stochastic regularization and constraints regarding the expected ranges of the changes by using Lagrange multipliers. I use non-l2 norms to penalize the model update in order to obtain sharp transitions between regions that experience temporal changes and regions that do not. I also incorporate a time-lapse differencing strategy to remove systematic errors in the time-lapse inversion. This work presents improvements in the characterization of temporal changes with respect to the classical approach of performing separate inversions and computing differences between the models. In the second part of this thesis, I adopt a Bayesian framework and use Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) simulations to quantify model parameter uncertainty in plane-wave EM inversion. For this purpose, I present a two-dimensional pixel-based probabilistic inversion strategy for separate and joint inversions of plane-wave EM and electrical resistivity tomography (ERT) data. I compare the uncertainties of the model parameters when considering different types of prior information on the model structure and different likelihood functions to describe the data errors. The results indicate that model regularization is necessary when dealing with a large number of model parameters because it helps to accelerate the convergence of the chains and leads to more realistic models. These constraints also lead to smaller uncertainty estimates, which imply posterior distributions that do not include the true underlying model in regions where the method has limited sensitivity. This situation can be improved by combining planewave EM methods with complimentary geophysical methods such as ERT. In addition, I show that an appropriate regularization weight and the standard deviation of the data errors can be retrieved by the MCMC inversion. Finally, I evaluate the possibility of characterizing the three-dimensional distribution of an injected water plume by performing three-dimensional time-lapse MCMC inversion of planewave EM data. Since MCMC inversion involves a significant computational burden in high parameter dimensions, I propose a model reduction strategy where the coefficients of a Legendre moment decomposition of the injected water plume and its location are estimated. For this purpose, a base resistivity model is needed which is obtained prior to the time-lapse experiment. A synthetic test shows that the methodology works well when the base resistivity model is correctly characterized. The methodology is also applied to an injection experiment performed in a geothermal system in Australia, and compared to a three-dimensional time-lapse inversion performed within a deterministic framework. The MCMC inversion better constrains the water plumes due to the larger amount of prior information that is included in the algorithm. The conductivity changes needed to explain the time-lapse data are much larger than what is physically possible based on present day understandings. This issue may be related to the base resistivity model used, therefore indicating that more efforts should be given to obtain high-quality base models prior to dynamic experiments. The studies described herein give clear evidence that plane-wave EM methods are useful to characterize and monitor the subsurface at a wide range of scales. The presented approaches contribute to an improved appraisal of the obtained models, both in terms of the incorporation of prior information in the algorithms and the posterior uncertainty quantification. In addition, the developed strategies can be applied to other geophysical methods, and offer great flexibility to incorporate additional information when available.