Application of meta-analytical probabilistic approach for reliability benefits reflective optimal transmission costing – the case of India

In the deregulated Power markets it is necessary to have a appropriate Transmission Pricing methodology that also takes into account “Congestion and Reliability”, in order to ensure an economically viable, equitable, and congestion free power transfer capability, with high reliability and security. This thesis presents results of research conducted on the development of a Decision Making Framework (DMF) of concepts and data analytic and modelling methods for the Reliability benefits Reflective Optimal “cost evaluation for the calculation of Transmission Cost” for composite power systems, using probabilistic methods. The methodology within the DMF devised and reported in this thesis, utilises a full AC Newton-Raphson load flow and a Monte-Carlo approach to determine, Reliability Indices which are then used for the proposed Meta-Analytical Probabilistic Approach (MAPA) for the evaluation and calculation of the Reliability benefit Reflective Optimal Transmission Cost (ROTC), of a transmission system. This DMF includes methods for transmission line embedded cost allocation among transmission transactions, accounting for line capacity-use as well as congestion costing that can be used for pricing using application of Power Transfer Distribution Factor (PTDF) as well as Bialek’s method to determine a methodology which consists of a series of methods and procedures as explained in detail in the thesis for the proposed MAPA for ROTC. The MAPA utilises the Bus Data, Generator Data, Line Data, Reliability Data and Customer Damage Function (CDF) Data for the evaluation of Congestion, Transmission and Reliability costing studies using proposed application of PTDF and other established/proven methods which are then compared, analysed and selected according to the area/state requirements and then integrated to develop ROTC. Case studies involving standard 7-Bus, IEEE 30-Bus and 146-Bus Indian utility test systems are conducted and reported throughout in the relevant sections of the dissertation. There are close correlation between results obtained through proposed application of PTDF method with the Bialek’s and different MW-Mile methods. The novel contributions of this research work are: firstly the application of PTDF method developed for determination of Transmission and Congestion costing, which are further compared with other proved methods. The viability of developed method is explained in the methodology, discussion and conclusion chapters. Secondly the development of comprehensive DMF which helps the decision makers to analyse and decide the selection of a costing approaches according to their requirements. As in the DMF all the costing approaches have been integrated to achieve ROTC. Thirdly the composite methodology for calculating ROTC has been formed into suits of algorithms and MATLAB programs for each part of the DMF, which are further described in the methodology section. Finally the dissertation concludes with suggestions for Future work.

Exploring value propositions and service innovation : a service-dominant logic study

This paper presents an eight-firm study, conducted from the service-dominant logic perspective, which makes a contribution regarding knowledge of the anatomy of value propositions and service innovation. The paper suggests that value propositions are configurations of several different practices and resources. The paper finds that ten common practices, organized in three main aggregates, constitute and fulfill value propositions: i.e. provision practices, representational practices, and management and organizational practices. Moreover, the paper suggests that service innovation can be equated with the creation of new value propositions by means of developing existing or creating new practices and/or resources, or by means of integrating practices and resources in new ways. It identifies four types of service innovation (adaptation, resource-based innovation, practice-based innovation, and combinative innovation) and three types of service innovation processes (practice-based, resource-based, and combinative). The key managerial insight provided by the paper is that service innovation must be conducted and value propositions must be evaluated from the perspective of the customers’ value creation, the service that the customer experiences. Successful service innovation is not only contingent on having the right resources, established methods and practices for integrating these resources into attractive value propositions are also needed.

Advances in Deontic Logic [Review]

Abstract not available

Fuzzy Logic Foundations and Industrial Applications (ed. D. Ruan), Springer US, 1996, ISBN: 978-0-7923-9774-8 [Book review]

Abstract not available

Security and Trust in Distributed Computation

We propose three research problems to explore the relations between trust and security in the setting of distributed computation. In the first problem, we study trust-based adversary detection in distributed consensus computation. The adversaries we consider behave arbitrarily disobeying the consensus protocol. We propose a trust-based consensus algorithm with local and global trust evaluations. The algorithm can be abstracted using a two-layer structure with the top layer running a trust-based consensus algorithm and the bottom layer as a subroutine executing a global trust update scheme. We utilize a set of pre-trusted nodes, headers, to propagate local trust opinions throughout the network. This two-layer framework is flexible in that it can be easily extensible to contain more complicated decision rules, and global trust schemes. The first problem assumes that normal nodes are homogeneous, i.e. it is guaranteed that a normal node always behaves as it is programmed. In the second and third problems however, we assume that nodes are heterogeneous, i.e, given a task, the probability that a node generates a correct answer varies from node to node. The adversaries considered in these two problems are workers from the open crowd who are either investing little efforts in the tasks assigned to them or intentionally give wrong answers to questions. In the second part of the thesis, we consider a typical crowdsourcing task that aggregates input from multiple workers as a problem in information fusion. To cope with the issue of noisy and sometimes malicious input from workers, trust is used to model workers' expertise. In a multi-domain knowledge learning task, however, using scalar-valued trust to model a worker's performance is not sufficient to reflect the worker's trustworthiness in each of the domains. To address this issue, we propose a probabilistic model to jointly infer multi-dimensional trust of workers, multi-domain properties of questions, and true labels of questions. Our model is very flexible and extensible to incorporate metadata associated with questions. To show that, we further propose two extended models, one of which handles input tasks with real-valued features and the other handles tasks with text features by incorporating topic models. Our models can effectively recover trust vectors of workers, which can be very useful in task assignment adaptive to workers' trust in the future. These results can be applied for fusion of information from multiple data sources like sensors, human input, machine learning results, or a hybrid of them. In the second subproblem, we address crowdsourcing with adversaries under logical constraints. We observe that questions are often not independent in real life applications. Instead, there are logical relations between them. Similarly, workers that provide answers are not independent of each other either. Answers given by workers with similar attributes tend to be correlated. Therefore, we propose a novel unified graphical model consisting of two layers. The top layer encodes domain knowledge which allows users to express logical relations using first-order logic rules and the bottom layer encodes a traditional crowdsourcing graphical model. Our model can be seen as a generalized probabilistic soft logic framework that encodes both logical relations and probabilistic dependencies. To solve the collective inference problem efficiently, we have devised a scalable joint inference algorithm based on the alternating direction method of multipliers. The third part of the thesis considers the problem of optimal assignment under budget constraints when workers are unreliable and sometimes malicious. In a real crowdsourcing market, each answer obtained from a worker incurs cost. The cost is associated with both the level of trustworthiness of workers and the difficulty of tasks. Typically, access to expert-level (more trustworthy) workers is more expensive than to average crowd and completion of a challenging task is more costly than a click-away question. In this problem, we address the problem of optimal assignment of heterogeneous tasks to workers of varying trust levels with budget constraints. Specifically, we design a trust-aware task allocation algorithm that takes as inputs the estimated trust of workers and pre-set budget, and outputs the optimal assignment of tasks to workers. We derive the bound of total error probability that relates to budget, trustworthiness of crowds, and costs of obtaining labels from crowds naturally. Higher budget, more trustworthy crowds, and less costly jobs result in a lower theoretical bound. Our allocation scheme does not depend on the specific design of the trust evaluation component. Therefore, it can be combined with generic trust evaluation algorithms.

Probabilistic Models for Scalable Knowledge Graph Construction

In the past decade, systems that extract information from millions of Internet documents have become commonplace. Knowledge graphs -- structured knowledge bases that describe entities, their attributes and the relationships between them -- are a powerful tool for understanding and organizing this vast amount of information. However, a significant obstacle to knowledge graph construction is the unreliability of the extracted information, due to noise and ambiguity in the underlying data or errors made by the extraction system and the complexity of reasoning about the dependencies between these noisy extractions. My dissertation addresses these challenges by exploiting the interdependencies between facts to improve the quality of the knowledge graph in a scalable framework. I introduce a new approach called knowledge graph identification (KGI), which resolves the entities, attributes and relationships in the knowledge graph by incorporating uncertain extractions from multiple sources, entity co-references, and ontological constraints. I define a probability distribution over possible knowledge graphs and infer the most probable knowledge graph using a combination of probabilistic and logical reasoning. Such probabilistic models are frequently dismissed due to scalability concerns, but my implementation of KGI maintains tractable performance on large problems through the use of hinge-loss Markov random fields, which have a convex inference objective. This allows the inference of large knowledge graphs using 4M facts and 20M ground constraints in 2 hours. To further scale the solution, I develop a distributed approach to the KGI problem which runs in parallel across multiple machines, reducing inference time by 90%. Finally, I extend my model to the streaming setting, where a knowledge graph is continuously updated by incorporating newly extracted facts. I devise a general approach for approximately updating inference in convex probabilistic models, and quantify the approximation error by defining and bounding inference regret for online models. Together, my work retains the attractive features of probabilistic models while providing the scalability necessary for large-scale knowledge graph construction. These models have been applied on a number of real-world knowledge graph projects, including the NELL project at Carnegie Mellon and the Google Knowledge Graph.

Online MBPeT dashboard : enabling performance testing as a service in the cloud

In this thesis, tool support is addressed for the combined disciplines of Model-based testing and performance testing. Model-based testing (MBT) utilizes abstract behavioral models to automate test generation, thus decreasing time and cost of test creation. MBT is a functional testing technique, thereby focusing on output, behavior, and functionality. Performance testing, however, is non-functional and is concerned with responsiveness and stability under various load conditions. MBPeT (Model-Based Performance evaluation Tool) is one such tool which utilizes probabilistic models, representing dynamic real-world user behavior patterns, to generate synthetic workload against a System Under Test and in turn carry out performance analysis based on key performance indicators (KPI). Developed at Åbo Akademi University, the MBPeT tool is currently comprised of a downloadable command-line based tool as well as a graphical user interface. The goal of this thesis project is two-fold: 1) to extend the existing MBPeT tool by deploying it as a web-based application, thereby removing the requirement of local installation, and 2) to design a user interface for this web application which will add new user interaction paradigms to the existing feature set of the tool. All phases of the MBPeT process will be realized via this single web deployment location including probabilistic model creation, test configurations, test session execution against a SUT with real-time monitoring of user configurable metric, and final test report generation and display. This web application (MBPeT Dashboard) is implemented with the Java programming language on top of the Vaadin framework for rich internet application development. The Vaadin framework handles the complicated web communications processes and front-end technologies, freeing developers to implement the business logic as well as the user interface in pure Java. A number of experiments are run in a case study environment to validate the functionality of the newly developed Dashboard application as well as the scalability of the solution implemented in handling multiple concurrent users. The results support a successful solution with regards to the functional and performance criteria defined, while improvements and optimizations are suggested to increase both of these factors.

A tableau system for Quasi-hybrid logic

Hybrid logic is a valuable tool for specifying relational structures, at the same time that allows defining accessibility relations between states, it provides a way to nominate and make mention to what happens at each specific state. However, due to the many sources nowadays available, we may need to deal with contradictory information. This is the reason why we came with the idea of Quasi-hybrid logic, which is a paraconsistent version of hybrid logic capable of dealing with inconsistencies in the information, written as hybrid formulas. In [5] we have already developed a semantics for this paraconsistent logic. In this paper we go a step forward, namely we study its proof-theoretical aspects. We present a complete tableau system for Quasi-hybrid logic, by combining both tableaux for Quasi-classical and Hybrid logics.

Rule-based and Resource-bounded: A New Look at Epistemic Logic

Syntactic logics do not suffer from the problems of logical omniscience but are often thought to lack interesting properties relating to epistemic notions. By focusing on the case of rule-based agents, I develop a framework for modelling resource-bounded agents and show that the resulting models have a number of interesting properties.