The Challenge of Housing for Ex-Offenders, Data Download, Iowa Department of Corrections, September 2010

On October 5, 2010 there were 25,829 probationers and parolees (including special sentence) under community-based corrections field supervision statewide. As shown in the pie charts below, LSI-R offender assessments show that a sizeable percent of offenders are dissatisfied with their living accommodations – particularly for higher risk offenders.

LSI-R Scores: Change Matters - Part II, Data Download, Iowa Department of Corrections

In the last issue of the Data Download, we discussed that overall, a 10% drop in LSI-R scores for our highest risk offenders was associated with a 6% reduction in recidivism. However, LSI-R score reductions for the lowest risk offenders don't substantially affect their already low recidivism rates. The issue contained charts that showed this held true for both probationers and parolees. The charts below show that change also matters for women offenders and African-American offenders.

Option valuation as an expectation in the complex domain: The Black-Scholes case

It is very well known that the first succesful valuation of a stock option was done by solving a deterministic partial differential equation (PDE) of the parabolic type with some complementary conditions specific for the option. In this approach, the randomness in the option value process is eliminated through a no-arbitrage argument. An alternative approach is to construct a replicating portfolio for the option. From this viewpoint the payoff function for the option is a random process which, under a new probabilistic measure, turns out to be of a special type, a martingale. Accordingly, the value of the replicating portfolio (equivalently, of the option) is calculated as an expectation, with respect to this new measure, of the discounted value of the payoff function. Since the expectation is, by definition, an integral, its calculation can be made simpler by resorting to powerful methods already available in the theory of analytic functions. In this paper we use precisely two of those techniques to find the well-known value of a European call

Résultats anatomiques comparés à long terme de décollements de rétine avec prolifération vitréo-rétinienne opérés avec ou sans utilisation de perfluorocarbones liquides [Long-term comparative anatomic results of retinal detachment with vitreoretinal proliferation operated with or without using liquid perfluorocarbons].

PURPOSE: To investigate whether peroperative perfluorocarbon liquids (PFCL) improve the long term anatomical success of retinal detachment associated with severe proliferative vitreoretinopathy (PVR). PATIENTS AND METHODS: The charts of 62 successive patients operated on for retinal detachment associated with severe PVR were retrospectively analyzed. For one group of 39 patients PFCL were used intraoperatively to improve membrane dissection. The anatomical status of the two groups were compared one month after surgery and at least 6 months after silicone oil ablation. RESULTS: Anatomical success was observed in 84.6% in the group of patients operated with PFCL compared to 52% in the other group (P = 0.005). At the end of the follow up, anatomical success was observed in 64% of patients operated with PFCL compared to 61% in the control group (P = 0.8). However, recurrences were observed later in the group operated on with PFCL. CONCLUSION: Perfluorocarbons liquids significantly improve the initial reattachment of retinal detachment complicated with severe PVR, but they do not seem to improve their final anatomical status.

Diffusion in spatially and temporarily inhomogeneous media

In this paper we consider diffusion of a passive substance C in a temporarily and spatially inhomogeneous two-dimensional medium. As a realization for the latter we choose a phase-separating medium consisting of two substances A and B, whose dynamics is determined by the Cahn-Hilliard equation. Assuming different diffusion coefficients of C in A and B, we find that the variance of the distribution function of the said substance grows less than linearly in time. We derive a simple identity for the variance using a probabilistic ansatz and are then able to identify the interface between A and B as the main cause for this nonlinear dependence. We argue that, finally, for very large times the here temporarily dependent diffusion "constant" goes like t-1/3 to a constant asymptotic value D¿. The latter is calculated approximately by employing the effective-medium approximation and by fitting the simulation data to the said time dependence.

Network-based scoring system for genome-scale metabolic reconstructions

Background: Network reconstructions at the cell level are a major development in Systems Biology. However, we are far from fully exploiting its potentialities. Often, the incremental complexity of the pursued systems overrides experimental capabilities, or increasingly sophisticated protocols are underutilized to merely refine confidence levels of already established interactions. For metabolic networks, the currently employed confidence scoring system rates reactions discretely according to nested categories of experimental evidence or model-based likelihood. Results: Here, we propose a complementary network-based scoring system that exploits the statistical regularities of a metabolic network as a bipartite graph. As an illustration, we apply it to the metabolism of Escherichia coli. The model is adjusted to the observations to derive connection probabilities between individual metabolite-reaction pairs and, after validation, to assess the reliability of each reaction in probabilistic terms. This network-based scoring system uncovers very specific reactions that could be functionally or evolutionary important, identifies prominent experimental targets, and enables further confirmation of modeling results. Conclusions: We foresee a wide range of potential applications at different sub-cellular or supra-cellular levels of biological interactions given the natural bipartivity of many biological networks.

Effect of n-3 fatty acids on cerebral markers and the inflammatory response in sepsis

Introduction ICM+ software encapsulates our 20 years' experience in brain monitoring. It collects data from a variety of bedside monitors and produces time trends of parameters defi ned using confi gurable mathematical formulae. To date it is being used in nearly 40 clinical research centres worldwide. We present its application for continuous monitoring of cerebral autoregulation using near-infrared spectroscopy (NIRS). Methods Data from multiple bedside monitors are processed by ICM+ in real time using a large selection of signal processing methods. These include various time and frequency domain analysis functions as well as fully customisable digital fi lters. The fi nal results are displayed in a variety of ways including simple time trends, as well as time window based histograms, cross histograms, correlations, and so forth. All this allows complex information from bedside monitors to be summarized in a concise fashion and presented to medical and nursing staff in a simple way that alerts them to the development of various pathological processes. Results One hundred and fi fty patients monitored continuously with NIRS, arterial blood pressure (ABP) and intracranial pressure (ICP), where available, were included in this study. There were 40 severely headinjured adult patients, 27 SAH patients (NCCU, Cambridge); 60 patients undergoing cardiopulmonary bypass (John Hopkins Hospital, Baltimore) and 23 patients with sepsis (University Hospital, Basel). In addition, MCA fl ow velocity (FV) was monitored intermittently using transcranial Doppler. FV-derived and ICP-derived pressure reactivity indices (PRx, Mx), as well as NIRS-derived reactivity indices (Cox, Tox, Thx) were calculated and showed signifi cant correlation with each other in all cohorts. Errorbar charts showing reactivity index PRx versus CPP (optimal CPP chart) as well as similar curves for NIRS indices versus CPP and ABP were also demonstrated. Conclusions ICM+ software is proving to be a very useful tool for enhancing the battery of available means for monitoring cerebral vasoreactivity and potentially facilitating autoregulation guided therapy. Complexity of data analysis is also hidden inside loadable profi les, thus allowing investigators to take full advantage of validated protocols including advanced processing formulas.

Neural networks as mechanisms to regulate division of labor.

Abstract In social insects, workers perform a multitude of tasks, such as foraging, nest construction, and brood rearing, without central control of how work is allocated among individuals. It has been suggested that workers choose a task by responding to stimuli gathered from the environment. Response-threshold models assume that individuals in a colony vary in the stimulus intensity (response threshold) at which they begin to perform the corresponding task. Here we highlight the limitations of these models with respect to colony performance in task allocation. First, we show with analysis and quantitative simulations that the deterministic response-threshold model constrains the workers' behavioral flexibility under some stimulus conditions. Next, we show that the probabilistic response-threshold model fails to explain precise colony responses to varying stimuli. Both of these limitations would be detrimental to colony performance when dynamic and precise task allocation is needed. To address these problems, we propose extensions of the response-threshold model by adding variables that weigh stimuli. We test the extended response-threshold model in a foraging scenario and show in simulations that it results in an efficient task allocation. Finally, we show that response-threshold models can be formulated as artificial neural networks, which consequently provide a comprehensive framework for modeling task allocation in social insects.

Laparoscopic surgery for coeliac artery compression syndrome: current management and technical aspects.

Objectives: The study aims to assess the feasibility and midterm outcome of trans-peritoneal laparoscopy for coeliac artery compression syndrome (CACS).Design: Retrospective chart review involving four European vascular surgery departments and two surgical teams.Materials and methods: charts for patients who underwent laparoscopy for symptomatic CACS between December 2003 and November 2009 were reviewed. Preoperative computed tomography (CT) angiography and postoperative duplex scan and/or CT angiography were performed.Results: Eleven consecutive patients (nine women) with a median age of 52 years (interquartile range: 42.5-59 years) underwent trans-peritoneal laparoscopy for CACS. All patients had a history of postprandial abdominal pain; weight loss exceeded 10% of the body mass in eight cases. Preoperative CT angiography revealed coeliac trunk stenosis >70% in all cases. One patient had additional aortitis and inferior mesenteric artery occlusion, while another patient presented with an occluded superior mesenteric artery. Two conversions occurred (one difficult dissection and one aorto-hepatic bypass needed for incomplete release of CACS). The median blood loss was 195 ml (range: 50-900 ml) and median operative time was 80 min (interquartile range: 65-162.5 years). Symptoms improved immediately in 10/11 patients (no residual stenosis) while one remained unchanged despite a residual stenosis treated by a percutaneous angioplasty. Symptoms reappeared in one patient due to coeliac axis occlusion. The mean follow-up period was 35 +/- 23 months (range: 12-78 months).Conclusion: Our study demonstrates that trans-peritoneal laparoscopy for treating median arcuate ligament syndrome is safe and feasible. Additional patients and a longer follow-up are needed for long-term assessment of this laparoscopic technique. (C) 2011 European Society for Vascular Surgery. Published by Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

An Experimental Validation of a Statistical-Based Damage Detection Approach, January 2011

In this work, a previously-developed, statistical-based, damage-detection approach was validated for its ability to autonomously detect damage in bridges. The damage-detection approach uses statistical differences in the actual and predicted behavior of the bridge caused under a subset of ambient trucks. The predicted behavior is derived from a statistics-based model trained with field data from the undamaged bridge (not a finite element model). The differences between actual and predicted responses, called residuals, are then used to construct control charts, which compare undamaged and damaged structure data. Validation of the damage-detection approach was achieved by using sacrificial specimens that were mounted to the bridge and exposed to ambient traffic loads and which simulated actual damage-sensitive locations. Different damage types and levels were introduced to the sacrificial specimens to study the sensitivity and applicability. The damage-detection algorithm was able to identify damage, but it also had a high false-positive rate. An evaluation of the sub-components of the damage-detection methodology and methods was completed for the purpose of improving the approach. Several of the underlying assumptions within the algorithm were being violated, which was the source of the false-positives. Furthermore, the lack of an automatic evaluation process was thought to potentially be an impediment to widespread use. Recommendations for the improvement of the methodology were developed and preliminarily evaluated. These recommendations are believed to improve the efficacy of the damage-detection approach.

Evidence for segregated and integrative connectivity patterns in the human Basal Ganglia.

Detailed knowledge of the anatomy and connectivity pattern of cortico-basal ganglia circuits is essential to an understanding of abnormal cortical function and pathophysiology associated with a wide range of neurological and neuropsychiatric diseases. We aim to study the spatial extent and topography of human basal ganglia connectivity in vivo. Additionally, we explore at an anatomical level the hypothesis of coexistent segregated and integrative cortico-basal ganglia loops. We use probabilistic tractography on magnetic resonance diffusion weighted imaging data to segment basal ganglia and thalamus in 30 healthy subjects based on their cortical and subcortical projections. We introduce a novel method to define voxel-based connectivity profiles that allow representation of projections from a source to more than one target region. Using this method, we localize specific relay nuclei within predefined functional circuits. We find strong correlation between tractography-based basal ganglia parcellation and anatomical data from previously reported invasive tracing studies in nonhuman primates. Additionally, we show in vivo the anatomical basis of segregated loops and the extent of their overlap in prefrontal, premotor, and motor networks. Our findings in healthy humans support the notion that probabilistic diffusion tractography can be used to parcellate subcortical gray matter structures on the basis of their connectivity patterns. The coexistence of clearly segregated and also overlapping connections from cortical sites to basal ganglia subregions is a neuroanatomical correlate of both parallel and integrative networks within them. We believe that this method can be used to examine pathophysiological concepts in a number of basal ganglia-related disorders.

New perspectives in the use of ink evidence in forensic science : part III : operational applications and evaluation

The research reported in this series of article aimed at (1) automating the search of questioned ink specimens in ink reference collections and (2) at evaluating the strength of ink evidence in a transparent and balanced manner. These aims require that ink samples are analysed in an accurate and reproducible way and that they are compared in an objective and automated way. This latter requirement is due to the large number of comparisons that are necessary in both scenarios. A research programme was designed to (a) develop a standard methodology for analysing ink samples in a reproducible way, (b) comparing automatically and objectively ink samples and (c) evaluate the proposed methodology in forensic contexts. This report focuses on the last of the three stages of the research programme. The calibration and acquisition process and the mathematical comparison algorithms were described in previous papers [C. Neumann, P. Margot, New perspectives in the use of ink evidence in forensic science-Part I: Development of a quality assurance process for forensic ink analysis by HPTLC, Forensic Sci. Int. 185 (2009) 29-37; C. Neumann, P. Margot, New perspectives in the use of ink evidence in forensic science-Part II: Development and testing of mathematical algorithms for the automatic comparison of ink samples analysed by HPTLC, Forensic Sci. Int. 185 (2009) 38-50]. In this paper, the benefits and challenges of the proposed concepts are tested in two forensic contexts: (1) ink identification and (2) ink evidential value assessment. The results show that different algorithms are better suited for different tasks. This research shows that it is possible to build digital ink libraries using the most commonly used ink analytical technique, i.e. high-performance thin layer chromatography, despite its reputation of lacking reproducibility. More importantly, it is possible to assign evidential value to ink evidence in a transparent way using a probabilistic model. It is therefore possible to move away from the traditional subjective approach, which is entirely based on experts' opinion, and which is usually not very informative. While there is room for the improvement, this report demonstrates the significant gains obtained over the traditional subjective approach for the search of ink specimens in ink databases, and the interpretation of their evidential value.

Debris flow modeling for susceptibility mapping at regional to national scale in Norway

Debris flows and related landslide processes occur in many regions all over Norway and pose a significant hazard to inhabited areas. Within the framework of the development of a national debris flows susceptibility map, we are working on a modeling approach suitable for Norway with a nationwide coverage. The discrimination of source areas is based on an index approach, which includes topographic parameters and hydrological settings. For the runout modeling, we use the Flow-R model (IGAR, University of Lausanne), which is based on combined probabilistic and energetic algorithms for the assessment of the spreading of the flow and maximum runout distances. First results for different test areas have shown that runout distances can be modeled reliably. For the selection of source areas, however, additional factors have to be considered, such as the lithological and quaternary geological setting, in order to accommodate the strong variation in debris flow activity in the different geological, geomorphological and climate regions of Norway.

Bayesian estimation of speciation and extinction from incomplete fossil occurrence data.

The temporal dynamics of species diversity are shaped by variations in the rates of speciation and extinction, and there is a long history of inferring these rates using first and last appearances of taxa in the fossil record. Understanding diversity dynamics critically depends on unbiased estimates of the unobserved times of speciation and extinction for all lineages, but the inference of these parameters is challenging due to the complex nature of the available data. Here, we present a new probabilistic framework to jointly estimate species-specific times of speciation and extinction and the rates of the underlying birth-death process based on the fossil record. The rates are allowed to vary through time independently of each other, and the probability of preservation and sampling is explicitly incorporated in the model to estimate the true lifespan of each lineage. We implement a Bayesian algorithm to assess the presence of rate shifts by exploring alternative diversification models. Tests on a range of simulated data sets reveal the accuracy and robustness of our approach against violations of the underlying assumptions and various degrees of data incompleteness. Finally, we demonstrate the application of our method with the diversification of the mammal family Rhinocerotidae and reveal a complex history of repeated and independent temporal shifts of both speciation and extinction rates, leading to the expansion and subsequent decline of the group. The estimated parameters of the birth-death process implemented here are directly comparable with those obtained from dated molecular phylogenies. Thus, our model represents a step towards integrating phylogenetic and fossil information to infer macroevolutionary processes.

Project Newsletter Iowa Public Health Tracking, July 2013

The IDPH Public Health Tracking Program is an excellent way to collect data related to various indicators for Iowans, but those looking for national statistics or data from other states may want to check out the Health Indicators Warehouse (healthindicators.gov). Run and maintained by the CDC’s National Center for Health Statistics, this site is a centralized source for national, state, and county data for a wide variety of indicators. The data is available to the public, and can be accessed either through the tables and charts directly on the website, or indicators can be downloaded to use in a spreadsheet. Once on the site, users are able to search for their desired data either by topic or geographic region. Filters can then be applied to the chosen field to narrow down the user’s search and obtain the preferred statistics. In addition, users are also able to search for indicators derived from state and federal health indicator initiatives: County Health Rankings, Community Health Status Indicators, Healthy People 2020, and CMS Community Indicators. The warehouse provides an overview of each indicator after the user has made their selection. This overview includes information on how the data was calculated and what characteristics are being represented. For example, percent of binge drinking adults is prefaced in the overview that data was based on the question: “Considering all types of alcoholic beverages, how many times during the past 30 days did you have [5 for men, 4 for women] or more drinks on an occasion?" Data is viewable either in the basic table format, chart format, or for some indicators it is possible to view it in terms of a national map. The Health Indicators Warehouse updates indicators as data becomes available, but the collection of years varies amongst the indicators. Nonetheless, this site is a useful resource to anyone looking for comparative indicators throughout the nation or is interested in one of the hundreds of indicators housed by the site. For more information or to check out what the warehouse has to offer visit: http://healthindicators.gov/