Exchange rate forecasters’ performance: evidence of skill?

This paper sheds new light on a long-standing puzzle in the international finance literature, namely, that exchange rate expectations appear inaccurate and even irrational. We find for a comprehensive dataset that individual forecasters’ performance is skill-based. ‘Superior’ forecasters show consistent ability as their forecasting success holds across currencies. They seem to possess knowledge on the role of fundamentals in explaining exchange rate behavior, as indicated by better interest rate forecasts. Superior forecasters are more experienced than the median forecaster and have fewer personnel responsibilities. Accordingly, foreign exchange markets may function in less puzzling and irrational ways than is often thought.

Evaluation of a summary score of cognitive performance for use in trials in perioperative and critical care.

Background/Aims: Cognitive dysfunction after medical treatment is increasingly being recognized. Studies on this topic require repeated cognitive testing within a short time. However, with repeated testing, practice effects must be expected. We quantified practice effects in a demographically corrected summary score of a neuropsychological test battery repeatedly administered to healthy elderly volunteers. Methods: The Consortium to Establish a Registry for Alzheimer's Disease (CERAD) Neuropsychological Assessment Battery (for which a demographically corrected summary score was developed), phonemic fluency tests, and trail-making tests were administered in healthy volunteers aged 65 years or older on days 0, 7, and 90. This battery allows calculation of a demographically adjusted continuous summary score. Results: Significant practice effects were observed in the CERAD total score and in the word list (learning and recall) subtest. Based on these volunteer data, we developed a threshold for diagnosis of postoperative cognitive dysfunction (POCD) with the CERAD total score. Conclusion: Practice effects with repeated administration of neuropsychological tests must be accounted for in the interpretation of such tests. Ignoring practice effects may lead to an underestimation of POCD. The usefulness of the proposed demographically adjusted continuous score for cognitive function will have to be tested prospectively in patients.

Accurate performance of a rat model of schizophrenia in the water maze depends on visual cue availability and stability: a distortion in cognitive mapping abilities?

Rats were treated postnatally (PND 5-16) with BSO (l-buthionine-(S,R)-sulfoximine) in an animal model of schizophrenia based on transient glutathione deficit. The BSO treated rats were impaired in patrolling a maze or a homing table when adult, yet demonstrated preserved escape learning, place discrimination and reversal in a water maze task [37]. In the present work, BSO rats' performance in the water maze was assessed in conditions controlling for the available visual cues. First, in a completely curtained environment with two salient controlled cues, BSO rats showed little accuracy compared to control rats. Secondly, pre-trained BSO rats were impaired in reaching the familiar spatial position when curtains partially occluded different portions of the room environment in successive sessions. The apparently preserved place learning in a classical water maze task thus appears to require the stability and the richness of visual landmarks from the surrounding environment. In other words, the accuracy of BSO rats in place and reversal learning is impaired in a minimal cue condition or when the visual panorama changes between trials. However, if the panorama remains rich and stable between trials, BSO rats are equally efficient in reaching a familiar position or in learning a new one. This suggests that the BSO accurate performance in the water maze does not satisfy all the criteria for a cognitive map based navigation on the integration of polymodal cues. It supports the general hypothesis of a binding deficit in BSO rats.

Multiplex ultra-performance liquid chromatography-tandem mass spectrometry method for simultaneous quantification in human plasma of fluconazole, itraconazole, hydroxyitraconazole, posaconazole, voriconazole, voriconazole-N-oxide, anidulafungin, and caspofungin.

Therapeutic drug monitoring (TDM) may contribute to optimizing the efficacy and safety of antifungal therapy because of the large variability in drug pharmacokinetics. Rapid, sensitive, and selective laboratory methods are needed for efficient TDM. Quantification of several antifungals in a single analytical run may best fulfill these requirements. We therefore developed a multiplex ultra-performance liquid chromatography-tandem mass spectrometry (UPLC-MS/MS) method requiring 100 μl of plasma for simultaneous quantification within 7 min of fluconazole, itraconazole, hydroxyitraconazole, posaconazole, voriconazole, voriconazole-N-oxide, caspofungin, and anidulafungin. Protein precipitation with acetonitrile was used in a single extraction procedure for eight analytes. After reverse-phase chromatographic separation, antifungals were quantified by electrospray ionization-triple-quadrupole mass spectrometry by selected reaction monitoring detection using the positive mode. Deuterated isotopic compounds of azole antifungals were used as internal standards. The method was validated based on FDA recommendations, including assessment of extraction yields, matrix effect variability (<9.2%), and analytical recovery (80.1 to 107%). The method is sensitive (lower limits of azole quantification, 0.01 to 0.1 μg/ml; those of echinocandin quantification, 0.06 to 0.1 μg/ml), accurate (intra- and interassay biases of -9.9 to +5% and -4.0 to +8.8%, respectively), and precise (intra- and interassay coefficients of variation of 1.2 to 11.1% and 1.2 to 8.9%, respectively) over clinical concentration ranges (upper limits of quantification, 5 to 50 μg/ml). Thus, we developed a simple, rapid, and robust multiplex UPLC-MS/MS assay for simultaneous quantification of plasma concentrations of six antifungals and two metabolites. This offers, by optimized and cost-effective lab resource utilization, an efficient tool for daily routine TDM aimed at maximizing the real-time efficacy and safety of different recommended single-drug antifungal regimens and combination salvage therapies, as well as a tool for clinical research.

A Modulated Closed Form solution for Quantitative Susceptibility Mapping - A thorough evaluation and comparison to iterative methods based on edge prior knowledge.

The aim of this study is to perform a thorough comparison of quantitative susceptibility mapping (QSM) techniques and their dependence on the assumptions made. The compared methodologies were: two iterative single orientation methodologies minimizing the l2, l1TV norm of the prior knowledge of the edges of the object, one over-determined multiple orientation method (COSMOS) and anewly proposed modulated closed-form solution (MCF). The performance of these methods was compared using a numerical phantom and in-vivo high resolution (0.65mm isotropic) brain data acquired at 7T using a new coil combination method. For all QSM methods, the relevant regularization and prior-knowledge parameters were systematically changed in order to evaluate the optimal reconstruction in the presence and absence of a ground truth. Additionally, the QSM contrast was compared to conventional gradient recalled echo (GRE) magnitude and R2* maps obtained from the same dataset. The QSM reconstruction results of the single orientation methods show comparable performance. The MCF method has the highest correlation (corrMCF=0.95, r(2)MCF =0.97) with the state of the art method (COSMOS) with additional advantage of extreme fast computation time. The l-curve method gave the visually most satisfactory balance between reduction of streaking artifacts and over-regularization with the latter being overemphasized when the using the COSMOS susceptibility maps as ground-truth. R2* and susceptibility maps, when calculated from the same datasets, although based on distinct features of the data, have a comparable ability to distinguish deep gray matter structures.

A randomized controlled clinical trial evaluating the performance and safety of platelets treated with MIRASOL pathogen reduction technology.

BACKGROUND: Pathogen reduction of platelets (PRT-PLTs) using riboflavin and ultraviolet light treatment has undergone Phase 1 and 2 studies examining efficacy and safety. This randomized controlled clinical trial (RCT) assessed the efficacy and safety of PRT-PLTs using the 1-hour corrected count increment (CCI(1hour) ) as the primary outcome. STUDY DESIGN AND METHODS: A noninferiority RCT was performed where patients with chemotherapy-induced thrombocytopenia (six centers) were randomly allocated to receive PRT-PLTs (Mirasol PRT, CaridianBCT Biotechnologies) or reference platelet (PLT) products. The treatment period was 28 days followed by a 28-day follow-up (safety) period. The primary outcome was the CCI(1hour) determined using up to the first eight on-protocol PLT transfusions given during the treatment period. RESULTS: A total of 118 patients were randomly assigned (60 to PRT-PLTs; 58 to reference). Four patients per group did not require PLT transfusions leaving 110 patients in the analysis (56 PRT-PLTs; 54 reference). A total of 541 on-protocol PLT transfusions were given (303 PRT-PLTs; 238 reference). The least square mean CCI was 11,725 (standard error [SE], 1.140) for PRT-PLTs and 16,939 (SE, 1.149) for the reference group (difference, -5214; 95% confidence interval, -7542 to -2887; p<0.0001 for a test of the null hypothesis of no difference between the two groups). CONCLUSION: The study failed to show noninferiority of PRT-PLTs based on predefined CCI criteria. PLT and red blood cell utilization in the two groups was not significantly different suggesting that the slightly lower CCIs (PRT-PLTs) did not increase blood product utilization. Safety data showed similar findings in the two groups. Further studies are required to determine if the lower CCI observed with PRT-PLTs translates into an increased risk of bleeding.

Foot worn inertial sensors for gait assessment and rehabilitation based on motorized shoes.

Fall prevention in elderly subjects is often based on training and rehabilitation programs that include mostly traditional balance and strength exercises. By applying such conventional interventions to improve gait performance and decrease fall risk, some important factors are neglected such as the dynamics of the gait and the motor learning processes. The EU project "Self Mobility Improvement in the eLderly by counteractING falls" (SMILING project) aimed to improve age-related gait and balance performance by using unpredicted external perturbations during walking through motorized shoes that change insole inclination at each stance. This paper describes the shoe-worn inertial module and the gait analysis method needed to control in real-time the shoe insole inclination during training, as well as gait spatio-temporal parameters obtained during long distance walking before and after the 8-week training program that assessed the efficacy of training with these motorized shoes.

Agent based simulation to optimise emergency departments

Nowadays, many of the health care systems are large and complex environments and quite dynamic, specifically Emergency Departments, EDs. It is opened and working 24 hours per day throughout the year with limited resources, whereas it is overcrowded. Thus, is mandatory to simulate EDs to improve qualitatively and quantitatively their performance. This improvement can be achieved modelling and simulating EDs using Agent-Based Model, ABM and optimising many different staff scenarios. This work optimises the staff configuration of an ED. In order to do optimisation, objective functions to minimise or maximise have to be set. One of those objective functions is to find the best or optimum staff configuration that minimise patient waiting time. The staff configuration comprises: doctors, triage nurses, and admissions, the amount and sort of them. Staff configuration is a combinatorial problem, that can take a lot of time to be solved. HPC is used to run the experiments, and encouraging results were obtained. However, even with the basic ED used in this work the search space is very large, thus, when the problem size increases, it is going to need more resources of processing in order to obtain results in an acceptable time.

Ultimate test bench for pediatric biventricular assist device based on artificial muscles.

Ventricular assist devices (VADs) are used in treatment for terminal heart failure or as a bridge to transplantation. We created biVAD using the artificial muscles (AMs) that supports both ventricles at the same time. We developed the test bench (TB) as the in vitro evaluating system to enable the measurement of performance. The biVAD exerts different pressure between left and right ventricle like the heart physiologically does. The heart model based on child's heart was constructed in silicone. This model was fitted with the biVAD. Two pipettes containing water with an ultrasonic sensor placed on top of each and attached to ventricles reproduced the preload and the after load of each ventricle by the real-time measurement of the fluid height variation proportionally to the exerted pressure. The LabVIEW software extrapolated the displaced volume and the pressure generated by each side of our biVAD. The development of a standardized protocol permitted the validation of the TB for in vitro evaluation, measurement of the performances of the AM biVAD herein, and reproducibility of data.

Paper 3: EUROCAT data quality indicators for population-based registries of congenital anomalies.

The European Surveillance of Congenital Anomalies (EUROCAT) network of population-based congenital anomaly registries is an important source of epidemiologic information on congenital anomalies in Europe covering live births, fetal deaths from 20 weeks gestation, and terminations of pregnancy for fetal anomaly. EUROCAT's policy is to strive for high-quality data, while ensuring consistency and transparency across all member registries. A set of 30 data quality indicators (DQIs) was developed to assess five key elements of data quality: completeness of case ascertainment, accuracy of diagnosis, completeness of information on EUROCAT variables, timeliness of data transmission, and availability of population denominator information. This article describes each of the individual DQIs and presents the output for each registry as well as the EUROCAT (unweighted) average, for 29 full member registries for 2004-2008. This information is also available on the EUROCAT website for previous years. The EUROCAT DQIs allow registries to evaluate their performance in relation to other registries and allows appropriate interpretations to be made of the data collected. The DQIs provide direction for improving data collection and ascertainment, and they allow annual assessment for monitoring continuous improvement. The DQI are constantly reviewed and refined to best document registry procedures and processes regarding data collection, to ensure appropriateness of DQI, and to ensure transparency so that the data collected can make a substantial and useful contribution to epidemiologic research on congenital anomalies.

Comparison of a multiplexed bead-based assay with an immunofluorescence and an enzyme-immuno assay for the assessment of Epstein-Barr virus serologic status

Dans cette étude, nous avons testé la performance diagnostique d'une nouvelle technique d'analyse multiplexée qui permet la détection d'anticorps de différentes spécificités dans la même réaction. En l'absence de gold standard, nous avons choisi de comparer la performance diagnostique de l'analyse avec deux méthodes de référance que sont l'IF et EIA, et avec un consensus déterminé selon une règle de majorité entre les trois méthodes.¦393 sérums analysés par IF, conservés par congélation, ont été décongelés pour être analysés par EIA et BBA. Pour chaque sérum, les anticorps recherchés ont été les anti-VCA (Viral Capsid Antigen) IgM, anti-VCA IgG et anti-EBNA (Epstein-Barr Nuclear Associated) IgG. Les échantillons ont été classés en cinq groupes selon les résultats de l'IF : séronégatifs, infections aiguës, infections anciennes et deux types d'indéterminés.¦Pour chaque méthode, le résultat numérique (index ou titre) des analyses est converti en termes de positif, négatif ou douteux. Pour le résultat de chaque type d'anticorps, un consensus est établi selon une règle de majorité entre les trois méthodes, permettant une interprétation du stade de l'infection. Puis l'interprétation de chacune des méthodes a été comparée au consensus. Nous avons également comparé les trois méthodes les unes aux autres concernant la détection des anticorps.¦Globalement, nous observons une bonne corrélation qualitative entre les trois approches pour détecter les anti-VCA IgG et IgM. Pour pour les anti-EBNA IgG, il y a une divergence notable entre l'IF et les deux autres méthodes, l'IF apparaissant moins sensible que les autres méthodes, résultant en un nombre accru d'interprétations indéterminées du stade de l'infection.¦L'origine de cette divergence ne peut être due à une perte d'anticorps liée au stockage de longue durée des échantillons. En effet, EIA et BBA restent plus sensibles que IF, dont l'analyse a été faite sur des sérums frais.¦Cette divergence ne semble pas non plus être due aux différents antigènes utilisés par les trois méthodes. EIA et BBA utilisent le même antigène recombinant EBNA-1, alors que l'IF utilise des "cellules lymphoïdes choisies pour leur production sélective d'antigènes EBNA". Ces cellules sont probablement des cellules infectées par EBV qui devraient exprimer plus d'antigènes de latence que seul EBNA-1. Cette différence devrait donc plutôt en principe résulter en une meilleure sensibilité de l'IF par rapport aux deux autres méthodes.¦Les anti-EBNA IgG peuvent disparaître chez les patients immunocompromis chez qui se produit une réactivation d'EBV. Nous avons donc recherché le status immunitaire des patients du groupe dont les sérums étaient négatifs pour anti-EBNA IgG en IF et positifs par les autres méthodes: seulement 28 des 70 patients étaient immunocompromis.¦Par conséquent, il est probable que dans la majorité de ces résultats discordants, les anticorps anti-EBNA IgG détectés par BBA et EIA sont de vrais positifs non décelés par l'IF.¦En conclusion, BBA est meilleur que la méthode de référance qu'est l'IF, et est égal à EIA en ce qui concerne la performance diagnostique. En outre, ces deux nouvelles méthodes offrent une économie de temps en raison de manipulations moindres, et ne requièrent aucune formation en microscopie à fluorescence. Elles sont également plus économes en échantillons que IF. BBA a l'avantage de n'avoir besoin que de deux analyses pour donner un diagnostique, alors que IF et EIA ont en besoin d'une par anticorps. Enfin, BBA dispose de contrôles internes permettant de reconnaître les liaisons non antigène-spécifiques des anticorps. Par contre, BBA nécessite l'achat d'un lecteur par cytométrie de flux assez coûteux.

Detection of coronary stenoses with contrast enhanced, three-dimensional free breathing coronary MR angiography using the gadolinium-based intravascular contrast agent gadocoletic acid (B-22956).

PURPOSE: To determine the diagnostic value of the intravascular contrast agent gadocoletic acid (B-22956) in three-dimensional, free breathing coronary magnetic resonance angiography (MRA) for stenosis detection in patients with suspected or known coronary artery disease. METHODS: Eighteen patients underwent three-dimensional, free breathing coronary MRA of the left and right coronary system before and after intravenous application of a single dose of gadocoletic acid (B-22956) using three different dose regimens (group A 0.050 mmol/kg; group B 0.075 mmol/kg; group C 0.100 mmol/kg). Precontrast scanning followed a coronary MRA standard non-contrast T2 preparation/turbo-gradient echo sequence (T2Prep); for postcontrast scanning an inversion-recovery gradient echo sequence was used (real-time navigator correction for both scans). In pre- and postcontrast scans quantitative analysis of coronary MRA data was performed to determine the number of visible side branches, vessel length and vessel sharpness of each of the three coronary arteries (LAD, LCX, RCA). The number of assessable coronary artery segments was determined to calculate sensitivity and specificity for detection of stenosis > or = 50% on a segment-to-segment basis (16-segment-model) in pre- and postcontrast scans with x-ray coronary angiography as the standard of reference. RESULTS: Dose group B (0.075 mmol/kg) was preferable with regard to improvement of MR angiographic parameters: in postcontrast scans all MR angiographic parameters increased significantly except for the number of visible side branches of the left circumflex artery. In addition, assessability of coronary artery segments significantly improved postcontrast in this dose group (67 versus 88%, p < 0.01). Diagnostic performance (sensitivity, specificity, accuracy) was 83, 77 and 78% for precontrast and 86, 95 and 94% for postcontrast scans. CONCLUSIONS: The use of gadocoletic acid (B-22956) results in an improvement of MR angiographic parameters, asssessability of coronary segments and detection of coronary stenoses > or = 50%.

Prospective evaluation of risk of vertebral fractures using quantitative ultrasound measurements and bone mineral density in a population-based sample of postmenopausal women: results of the Basel Osteoporosis Study.

OBJECTIVE: Prospective studies have shown that quantitative ultrasound (QUS) techniques predict the risk of fracture of the proximal femur with similar standardised risk ratios to dual-energy x-ray absorptiometry (DXA). Few studies have investigated these devices for the prediction of vertebral fractures. The Basel Osteoporosis Study (BOS) is a population-based prospective study to assess the performance of QUS devices and DXA in predicting incident vertebral fractures. METHODS: 432 women aged 60-80 years were followed-up for 3 years. Incident vertebral fractures were assessed radiologically. Bone measurements using DXA (spine and hip) and QUS measurements (calcaneus and proximal phalanges) were performed. Measurements were assessed for their value in predicting incident vertebral fractures using logistic regression. RESULTS: QUS measurements at the calcaneus and DXA measurements discriminated between women with and without incident vertebral fracture, (20% height reduction). The relative risks (RRs) for vertebral fracture, adjusted for age, were 2.3 for the Stiffness Index (SI) and 2.8 for the Quantitative Ultrasound Index (QUI) at the calcaneus and 2.0 for bone mineral density at the lumbar spine. The predictive value (AUC (95% CI)) of QUS measurements at the calcaneus remained highly significant (0.70 for SI, 0.72 for the QUI, and 0.67 for DXA at the lumbar spine) even after adjustment for other confounding variables. CONCLUSIONS: QUS of the calcaneus and bone mineral density measurements were shown to be significant predictors of incident vertebral fracture. The RRs for QUS measurements at the calcaneus are of similar magnitude as for DXA measurements.

Performance of OptiMAL® in the diagnosis of Plasmodium vivax and Plasmodium falciparum infections in a malaria referral center in Colombia

Alternative, non-microscopic methods for the diagnosis of malaria have recently become available. Among these, rapid dipstick methods stand out. One such test, OptiMAL®, is based on the immunochromatographic detection of Plasmodium lactate dehydrogenase (pLDH) and has the capacity to detect and distinguish infections caused by P. falciparum and Plasmodium sp. This capacity is particularly important in countries where different species of Plasmodium co-exist. In this study we evaluated the performance of OptiMAL® in an urban referral center for malaria diagnosis. Two sets of patients were included: one (n = 112) having predetermined infections with P. falciparum or P. vivax and individuals with negative blood smears; and another consisting of all eligible consecutive patients (n = 80) consulting for diagnosis at the referral center during one month. The overall diagnostic efficiency of OptiMAL® for both sets of patients was 96.9%. Efficiency was higher for P. vivax (98.1%) than for P. falciparum (94.9%). These results corroborate the diagnostic utility of OptiMAL® in settings where P. vivax and P. falciparum co-exist and support its implementation where microscopic diagnosis is unavailable and in circumstances that exceed the capacity of the local microscopic diagnosis facility.

Policy Diffusion: An Agent-Based Approach

Methods like Event History Analysis can show the existence of diffusion and part of its nature, but do not study the process itself. Nowadays, thanks to the increasing performance of computers, processes can be studied using computational modeling. This thesis presents an agent-based model of policy diffusion mainly inspired from the model developed by Braun and Gilardi (2006). I first start by developing a theoretical framework of policy diffusion that presents the main internal drivers of policy diffusion - such as the preference for the policy, the effectiveness of the policy, the institutional constraints, and the ideology - and its main mechanisms, namely learning, competition, emulation, and coercion. Therefore diffusion, expressed by these interdependencies, is a complex process that needs to be studied with computational agent-based modeling. In a second step, computational agent-based modeling is defined along with its most significant concepts: complexity and emergence. Using computational agent-based modeling implies the development of an algorithm and its programming. When this latter has been developed, we let the different agents interact. Consequently, a phenomenon of diffusion, derived from learning, emerges, meaning that the choice made by an agent is conditional to that made by its neighbors. As a result, learning follows an inverted S-curve, which leads to partial convergence - global divergence and local convergence - that triggers the emergence of political clusters; i.e. the creation of regions with the same policy. Furthermore, the average effectiveness in this computational world tends to follow a J-shaped curve, meaning that not only time is needed for a policy to deploy its effects, but that it also takes time for a country to find the best-suited policy. To conclude, diffusion is an emergent phenomenon from complex interactions and its outcomes as ensued from my model are in line with the theoretical expectations and the empirical evidence.Les méthodes d'analyse de biographie (event history analysis) permettent de mettre en évidence l'existence de phénomènes de diffusion et de les décrire, mais ne permettent pas d'en étudier le processus. Les simulations informatiques, grâce aux performances croissantes des ordinateurs, rendent possible l'étude des processus en tant que tels. Cette thèse, basée sur le modèle théorique développé par Braun et Gilardi (2006), présente une simulation centrée sur les agents des phénomènes de diffusion des politiques. Le point de départ de ce travail met en lumière, au niveau théorique, les principaux facteurs de changement internes à un pays : la préférence pour une politique donnée, l'efficacité de cette dernière, les contraintes institutionnelles, l'idéologie, et les principaux mécanismes de diffusion que sont l'apprentissage, la compétition, l'émulation et la coercition. La diffusion, définie par l'interdépendance des différents acteurs, est un système complexe dont l'étude est rendue possible par les simulations centrées sur les agents. Au niveau méthodologique, nous présenterons également les principaux concepts sous-jacents aux simulations, notamment la complexité et l'émergence. De plus, l'utilisation de simulations informatiques implique le développement d'un algorithme et sa programmation. Cette dernière réalisée, les agents peuvent interagir, avec comme résultat l'émergence d'un phénomène de diffusion, dérivé de l'apprentissage, où le choix d'un agent dépend en grande partie de ceux faits par ses voisins. De plus, ce phénomène suit une courbe en S caractéristique, poussant à la création de régions politiquement identiques, mais divergentes au niveau globale. Enfin, l'efficacité moyenne, dans ce monde simulé, suit une courbe en J, ce qui signifie qu'il faut du temps, non seulement pour que la politique montre ses effets, mais également pour qu'un pays introduise la politique la plus efficace. En conclusion, la diffusion est un phénomène émergent résultant d'interactions complexes dont les résultats du processus tel que développé dans ce modèle correspondent tant aux attentes théoriques qu'aux résultats pratiques.