Determinants of the development of post-traumatic stress disorder, in the general population.

PURPOSE: To assess (1) the lifetime prevalence of exposure both to trauma and post-traumatic stress disorder (PTSD); (2) the risk of PTSD by type of trauma; and (3) the determinants of the development of PTSD in the community. METHODS: The Diagnostic Interview for Genetic Studies was administered to a random sample of an urban area (N = 3,691). RESULTS: (1) The lifetime prevalence estimates of exposure to trauma and PTSD were 21.0 and 5.0%; respectively, with a twice as high prevalence of PTSD in women compared to men despite a similar likelihood of exposure in the two sexes; (2) Sexual abuse was the trauma involving the highest risk of PTSD; (3) The risk of PTSD was most strongly associated with sexual abuse followed by preexisting bipolar disorder, alcohol dependence, antisocial personality, childhood separation anxiety disorder, being victim of crime, witnessing violence, Neuroticism and Problem-focused coping strategies. After adjustment for these characteristics, female sex was no longer found to be significantly associated with the risk of PTSD. CONCLUSIONS: The risk for the development of PTSD after exposure to traumatic events is associated with several factors including the type of exposure, preexisting psychopathology, personality features and coping strategies which independently contribute to the vulnerability to PTSD.

New perspectives in the use of ink evidence in forensic science: Part III: Operational applications and evaluation.

The research reported in this series of article aimed at (1) automating the search of questioned ink specimens in ink reference collections and (2) at evaluating the strength of ink evidence in a transparent and balanced manner. These aims require that ink samples are analysed in an accurate and reproducible way and that they are compared in an objective and automated way. This latter requirement is due to the large number of comparisons that are necessary in both scenarios. A research programme was designed to (a) develop a standard methodology for analysing ink samples in a reproducible way, (b) comparing automatically and objectively ink samples and (c) evaluate the proposed methodology in forensic contexts. This report focuses on the last of the three stages of the research programme. The calibration and acquisition process and the mathematical comparison algorithms were described in previous papers [C. Neumann, P. Margot, New perspectives in the use of ink evidence in forensic science-Part I: Development of a quality assurance process for forensic ink analysis by HPTLC, Forensic Sci. Int. 185 (2009) 29-37; C. Neumann, P. Margot, New perspectives in the use of ink evidence in forensic science-Part II: Development and testing of mathematical algorithms for the automatic comparison of ink samples analysed by HPTLC, Forensic Sci. Int. 185 (2009) 38-50]. In this paper, the benefits and challenges of the proposed concepts are tested in two forensic contexts: (1) ink identification and (2) ink evidential value assessment. The results show that different algorithms are better suited for different tasks. This research shows that it is possible to build digital ink libraries using the most commonly used ink analytical technique, i.e. high-performance thin layer chromatography, despite its reputation of lacking reproducibility. More importantly, it is possible to assign evidential value to ink evidence in a transparent way using a probabilistic model. It is therefore possible to move away from the traditional subjective approach, which is entirely based on experts' opinion, and which is usually not very informative. While there is room for the improvement, this report demonstrates the significant gains obtained over the traditional subjective approach for the search of ink specimens in ink databases, and the interpretation of their evidential value.

The development of an automatic recognition system for earmark and earprint comparisons

The value of earmarks as an efficient means of personal identification is still subject to debate. It has been argued that the field is lacking a firm systematic and structured data basis to help practitioners to form their conclusions. Typically, there is a paucity of research guiding as to the selectivity of the features used in the comparison process between an earmark and reference earprints taken from an individual. This study proposes a system for the automatic comparison of earprints and earmarks, operating without any manual extraction of key-points or manual annotations. For each donor, a model is created using multiple reference prints, hence capturing the donor within source variability. For each comparison between a mark and a model, images are automatically aligned and a proximity score, based on a normalized 2D correlation coefficient, is calculated. Appropriate use of this score allows deriving a likelihood ratio that can be explored under known state of affairs (both in cases where it is known that the mark has been left by the donor that gave the model and conversely in cases when it is established that the mark originates from a different source). To assess the system performance, a first dataset containing 1229 donors elaborated during the FearID research project was used. Based on these data, for mark-to-print comparisons, the system performed with an equal error rate (EER) of 2.3% and about 88% of marks are found in the first 3 positions of a hitlist. When performing print-to-print transactions, results show an equal error rate of 0.5%. The system was then tested using real-case data obtained from police forces.

Graphical probabilistic analysis of the combination of items of evidence

Unlike the evaluation of single items of scientific evidence, the formal study and analysis of the jointevaluation of several distinct items of forensic evidence has to date received some punctual, ratherthan systematic, attention. Questions about the (i) relationships among a set of (usually unobservable)propositions and a set of (observable) items of scientific evidence, (ii) the joint probative valueof a collection of distinct items of evidence as well as (iii) the contribution of each individual itemwithin a given group of pieces of evidence still represent fundamental areas of research. To somedegree, this is remarkable since both, forensic science theory and practice, yet many daily inferencetasks, require the consideration of multiple items if not masses of evidence. A recurrent and particularcomplication that arises in such settings is that the application of probability theory, i.e. the referencemethod for reasoning under uncertainty, becomes increasingly demanding. The present paper takesthis as a starting point and discusses graphical probability models, i.e. Bayesian networks, as frameworkwithin which the joint evaluation of scientific evidence can be approached in some viable way.Based on a review of existing main contributions in this area, the article here aims at presentinginstances of real case studies from the author's institution in order to point out the usefulness andcapacities of Bayesian networks for the probabilistic assessment of the probative value of multipleand interrelated items of evidence. A main emphasis is placed on underlying general patterns of inference,their representation as well as their graphical probabilistic analysis. Attention is also drawnto inferential interactions, such as redundancy, synergy and directional change. These distinguish thejoint evaluation of evidence from assessments of isolated items of evidence. Together, these topicspresent aspects of interest to both, domain experts and recipients of expert information, because theyhave bearing on how multiple items of evidence are meaningfully and appropriately set into context.

Newer antiepileptic drugs in the treatment of status epilepticus: Impact on prognosis.

Newer antiepileptic drugs (AEDs) are increasingly prescribed and seem to have a comparable efficacy as the classical AEDs; however, their impact on status epilepticus (SE) prognosis has received little attention. In our prospective SE database (2006-2010), we assessed the use of older versus newer AEDs (levetiracetam, pregabalin, topiramate, lacosamide) over time and its relationship to outcome (return to clinical baseline conditions, new handicap, or death). Newer AEDs were used more often toward the end of the study period (42% of episodes versus 30%). After adjustment for SE etiology, SE severity score, and number of compounds needed to terminate SE, newer AEDs were independently related to a reduced likelihood of return to baseline (p<0.001) but not to increased mortality. These findings seem in line with recent findings on refractory epilepsy. Also, in view of the higher price of the newer AEDs, well-designed, prospective assessments analyzing the impact of newer AEDs on efficacy and tolerability in patients with SE appear mandatory.

Troponin-based risk stratification of patients with acute nonmassive pulmonary embolism: systematic review and metaanalysis.

BACKGROUND: Controversy exists regarding the usefulness of troponin testing for the risk stratification of patients with acute pulmonary embolism (PE). We conducted an updated systematic review and a metaanalysis of troponin-based risk stratification of normotensive patients with acute symptomatic PE. The sources of our data were publications listed in Medline and Embase from 1980 through April 2008 and a review of cited references in those publications. METHODS: We included all studies that estimated the relation between troponin levels and the incidence of all-cause mortality in normotensive patients with acute symptomatic PE. Two reviewers independently abstracted data and assessed study quality. From the literature search, 596 publications were screened. Nine studies that consisted of 1,366 normotensive patients with acute symptomatic PE were deemed eligible. Pooled results showed that elevated troponin levels were associated with a 4.26-fold increased odds of overall mortality (95% CI, 2.13 to 8.50; heterogeneity chi(2) = 12.64; degrees of freedom = 8; p = 0.125). Summary receiver operating characteristic curve analysis showed a relationship between the sensitivity and specificity of troponin levels to predict overall mortality (Spearman rank correlation coefficient = 0.68; p = 0.046). Pooled likelihood ratios (LRs) were not extreme (negative LR, 0.59 [95% CI, 0.39 to 0.88]; positive LR, 2.26 [95% CI, 1.66 to 3.07]). The Begg rank correlation method did not detect evidence of publication bias. CONCLUSIONS: The results of this metaanalysis indicate that elevated troponin levels do not adequately discern normotensive patients with acute symptomatic PE who are at high risk for death from those who are at low risk for death.

The branch-site test of positive selection is surprisingly robust but lacks power under synonymous substitution saturation and variation in GC

Positive selection is widely estimated from protein coding sequence alignments by the nonsynonymous-to-synonymous ratio omega. Increasingly elaborate codon models are used in a likelihood framework for this estimation. Although there is widespread concern about the robustness of the estimation of the omega ratio, more efforts are needed to estimate this robustness, especially in the context of complex models. Here, we focused on the branch-site codon model. We investigated its robustness on a large set of simulated data. First, we investigated the impact of sequence divergence. We found evidence of underestimation of the synonymous substitution rate for values as small as 0.5, with a slight increase in false positives for the branch-site test. When dS increases further, underestimation of dS is worse, but false positives decrease. Interestingly, the detection of true positives follows a similar distribution, with a maximum for intermediary values of dS. Thus, high dS is more of a concern for a loss of power (false negatives) than for false positives of the test. Second, we investigated the impact of GC content. We showed that there is no significant difference of false positives between high GC (up to similar to 80%) and low GC (similar to 30%) genes. Moreover, neither shifts of GC content on a specific branch nor major shifts in GC along the gene sequence generate many false positives. Our results confirm that the branch-site is a very conservative test.

TraumaHawk: Improving Treatment for Crash Victims Using Photos and a Smartphone App

Photographic documentation of crashed vehicles at the scene can be used to improve triage of crash victims. A U.S. expert panel developed field triage rules to determine the likelihood of occupants sustaining serious injuries based on vehicle damage that would require transport to a trauma center (Sasser et al., 2011). The use of photographs for assessing vehicle damage and occupant compartment intrusion as it correlates to increased injury severity has been validated (Davidson et al., 2014). Providing trauma staff with crash scene photos remotely could assist them in predicting injuries. This would allow trauma care providers to assess the appropriate transport, as well as develop mental models of treatment options prior to patient arrival at the emergency department (ED). Crash-scene medical response has improved tremendously in the past 20-30 years. This is in part due to the increasing number of paramedics who now have advanced life support (ALS) training that allows independence in the field. However, while this advanced training provides a more streamlined field treatment protocol, it also means that paramedics focused on treating crash victims may not have time to communicate with trauma centers regarding crash injury mechanisms. As a result, trauma centers may not learn about severe trauma patients until just a few minutes before they arrive. The information transmitted by the TraumaHawk app allows interpretation of injury mechanisms from crash scene photos at the trauma center, providing clues about the type and severity of injury. With strategic crash scene photo documentation, trained trauma professionals can assess the severity and patterns of injury based on exterior crush and occupant intrusion. Intrusion increases the force experienced by vehicle occupants, which translates into a higher level of injury severity (Tencer et al., 2005; Assal et al., 2002; Mandell et al., 2010). First responders have the unique opportunity to assess the damaged vehicle at the crash scene, but often the mechanism of injury is limited or not even relayed to ED trauma staff. To integrate photographic and scene information, an app called TraumaHawk was created to capture images of crash vehicles and send them electronically to the trauma center. If efficiently implemented, it provides the potential advantage of increasing lead-time for preparation at the trauma center through the crash scene photos. Ideally, the result is better treatment outcomes for crash victims. The objective of this analysis was to examine if the extra lead-time granted by the TraumaHawk app could improve trauma team activation time over the current conventional communication method.

Clustering of HCV coinfections on HIV phylogeny indicates domestic and sexual transmission of HCV.

BACKGROUND: HCV coinfection remains a major cause of morbidity and mortality among HIV-infected individuals and its incidence has increased dramatically in HIV-infected men who have sex with men(MSM). METHODS: Hepatitis C virus (HCV) coinfection in the Swiss HIV Cohort Study(SHCS) was studied by combining clinical data with HIV-1 pol-sequences from the SHCS Drug Resistance Database(DRDB). We inferred maximum-likelihood phylogenetic trees, determined Swiss HIV-transmission pairs as monophyletic patient pairs, and then considered the distribution of HCV on those pairs. RESULTS: Among the 9748 patients in the SHCS-DRDB with known HCV status, 2768(28%) were HCV-positive. Focusing on subtype B(7644 patients), we identified 1555 potential HIV-1 transmission pairs. There, we found that, even after controlling for transmission group, calendar year, age and sex, the odds for an HCV coinfection were increased by an odds ratio (OR) of 3.2 [95% confidence interval (CI) 2.2, 4.7) if a patient clustered with another HCV-positive case. This strong association persisted if transmission groups of intravenous drug users (IDUs), MSMs and heterosexuals (HETs) were considered separately(in all cases OR>2). Finally we found that HCV incidence was increased by a hazard ratio of 2.1 (1.1, 3.8) for individuals paired with an HCV-positive partner. CONCLUSIONS: Patients whose HIV virus is closely related to the HIV virus of HIV/HCV-coinfected patients have a higher risk for carrying or acquiring HCV themselves. This indicates the occurrence of domestic and sexual HCV transmission and allows the identification of patients with a high HCV-infection risk.

Evaluation of Iowa's Driver Improvement Program, 2009

This study examines the effectiveness of Iowa’s Driver Improvement Program (DIP), measured as the reduction in the number of driver convictions subsequent to the DIP. The analysis involved a random sample of 9,055 drivers who had been instructed to attend DIP and corresponding data on driver convictions, crashes, and driver education training history that were provided by the Iowa Motor Vehicle Division. The sample was divided into two groups based on DIP outcome: satisfactory or unsatisfactory completion. Two evaluation periods were considered: one year after the DIP date (probation period) and the period from the 13th to 18th month after the DIP date. The evaluation of Iowa’s DIP showed that there is evidence of effectiveness in terms of reducing driver convictions subsequent to attending the DIP. Among the 6,790 (75%) drivers who completed the course satisfactorily, 73% of drivers had no actions and 93% were not involved in a crash during the probation period. Statistical tests confirmed these numbers. However, the positive effect of satisfactory completion of DIP on survival time (that is, the time until the first conviction) was not statistically significant 13 months after the DIP date. Econometric model estimation results showed that, regardless of the DIP outcome, the likelihood of conviction occurrence and frequency of subsequent convictions depends on other factors, such as age, driver history, and DIP location, and interaction effects among these factors. Low-cost, early intervention measures are suggested to enhance the effectiveness of Iowa’s DIP. These measures can include advisory and warning letters (customized based on the driver’s age) sent within the first year after the DIP date and soon after the end of the probation period, as well as a closer examination of DIP instruction across the 17 community colleges that host the program. Given the large number of suspended drivers who continued to drive, consideration should also be given to measures to reduce driving while suspended offenses.

08027-016 Competine Creek Watershed Final Report

Competine Creek is an 8,653 acre subwatershed of Whitebreast Creek which drains directly to Lake Red Rock. The Marion Soil and Water Conservation District has prioritized water quality protection efforts within Competine Creek subwatershed because 1) this watershed has been identified as a significant contributor of sediment, nutrients, and bacteria to Competine Creek and Lake Red Rock, 2) the watershed provides unique outreach opportunities due to its unique rural and urban interface, and 3) by using a targeted approach to address water quality, the likelihood of successfully demonstrating water quality improvements is high due to its manageable size. The specific goals of this proposal to WIRB (Phase I) are to: 1) reduce sediment and nutrient delivery by 1787 tons and 2144 lbs by installing conservation practices on high priority agricultural land; and 2) install urban conservation practices that reduce the volume of peak flow, improve streambank stability, and promote infiltration of stormwater runoff before it enters Competine Creek. The Marion SWCD has assembled a unique group of partners and secured funding from multiple sources to implement this project.

Estimating soybean crop areas using spectral-temporal surfaces derived from MODIS images in Mato Grosso, Brazil

The objective of this work was to evaluate the application of the spectral-temporal response surface (STRS) classification method on Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS, 250 m) sensor images in order to estimate soybean areas in Mato Grosso state, Brazil. The classification was carried out using the maximum likelihood algorithm (MLA) adapted to the STRS method. Thirty segments of 30x30 km were chosen along the main agricultural regions of Mato Grosso state, using data from the summer season of 2005/2006 (from October to March), and were mapped based on fieldwork data, TM/Landsat-5 and CCD/CBERS-2 images. Five thematic classes were considered: Soybean, Forest, Cerrado, Pasture and Bare Soil. The classification by the STRS method was done over an area intersected with a subset of 30x30-km segments. In regions with soybean predominance, STRS classification overestimated in 21.31% of the reference values. In regions where soybean fields were less prevalent, the classifier overestimated 132.37% in the acreage of the reference. The overall classification accuracy was 80%. MODIS sensor images and the STRS algorithm showed to be promising for the classification of soybean areas in regions with the predominance of large farms. However, the results for fragmented areas and smaller farms were less efficient, overestimating soybean areas.

Comparison of Fundus Autofluorescence Between Fundus Camera (Topcon) and Confocal Scanning Laser Ophthalmoscope (HRA) in Various Pathologies

Purpose: To investigate the differences between the Fundus Camera (Topcon TRC-50X) and Confocal Scanning Laser Ophthalmoscope (Heidelberg retina angiogram (HRA)) on the fundus autofluorescence (FAF) imaging (resolution and FAF characteristics). Methods: Eighty nine eyes of 46 patients with various retinal diseases underwent FAF imaging with HRA (488nm exciter / 500nm barrier filter) before fluorescein angiography (FFA) and Topcon Fundus Camera (580nm exciter / 695nm barrier filter) before and after FFA. The quality of the FAF images was estimated, compared for their resolution and analysed for the influence of fixation stability and cataracts. Hypo- and hyper-FAF behaviour was analysed for the healthy disc, healthy fovea, and a variety of pathological features. Results: HRA images were found to be of superior quality in 18 eyes, while Topcon images were estimated superior in 21 eyes. No difference was found in 50 eyes. Both poor fixation (p=0.009) and more advanced cataract (p=0.013) were found to strongly increase the likelihood of better image quality by Topcon. Images acquired by Topcon before and after FFA were identical (100%). The healthy disc was usually dark on HRA (71%), but showed mild autofluorescence on Topcon (88%). The healthy fovea showed in 100% Hypo-FAF on HRA, while Topcon showed in 52% Iso-FAF, in 43% mild Hypo-FAF, and in 5% Hypo-FAF as on HRA. No difference of FAF was found for geographic atrophy, pigment changes, and drusen, although Topcon images were often more detailed. Hyper-FAF due to exudation showed better on HRA. Pigment epithelium detachment showed identical FAF behaviour on the border, but reduced FAF with Topcon in the center. Cystic edema was visible only on HRA in a petaloid pattern. Hard exsudates caused Hypo-FAF only on HRA, hardly visible on Topcon. Blocage phenomenon by blood however was identical. Conclusions: The filter set of Topcon and the single image acquisition appear to be an advantage for patients with cataract or poor fixation. Preceding FFA does not alter the Topcon FAF image. Regarding the FAF behaviour, there are differences between the two systems which need to be taken into account when interpreting the images.

Quantitative genetic analysis of methylxanthines and phenolic compounds in mate progenies

The objective of this work was to determine the contents of methylxanthines, caffeine and theobromine, and phenolic compounds, chlorogenic and caffeic acids, in 51 mate progenies (half-sib families) and estimate the heritability of genetic parameters. Mate progenies were from five Brazilian municipalities: Pinhão, Ivaí, Barão de Cotegipe, Quedas do Iguaçu, and Cascavel. The progenies were grown in the Ivaí locality. The contents of the compounds were obtained by high performance liquid chromatography (HPLC). The estimation of genetic parameters by the restricted maximum likelihood (REML) and the prediction of genotypic values via best linear unbiased prediction (BLUP) were obtained by the Selegen - REML/BLUP software. Caffeine (0.248-1.663%) and theobromine (0.106-0.807%) contents were significantly different (p<0.05) depending on the region of origin, with high individual heritability (ĥ²>0.5). The two different progeny groups determined for chlorogenic (1.365-2.281%) and caffeic (0.027-0.037%) acid contents were not significantly different (p<0.05) depending on the locality of origin. Individual heritability values were low to medium for chlorogenic (ĥ²<0.4) and caffeic acid (ĥ²<0.3). The content of the compounds and the values of genetic parameters could support breeding programs for mate.

Confirmatory factor analysis of an integrated model of psycopathology assessed with MMPI-2-RF and the MCMI-III

We presented an integrated hierarchical model of psychopathology that more accurately captures empirical patterns of comorbidity between clinical syndromes and personality disorders.In order to verify the structural validity of the model proposed, this study aimed to analyze the convergence between the Restructured Clinical (RC) scales and Personality scales (PSY-5) of the MMPI-2-RF and the Clinical Syndrome and Personality Disorder scales of the MCMI-III.The MMPI-2-RF and MCMI-III were administered to a clinical sample of 377 outpatients (167 men and 210 women).The structural hypothesiswas assessed by using a Confirmatory Factor Analytic design with four common superordinate factors. An independent-cluster-basis solution was proposed based on maximum likelihood estimation and the application of several fit indices.The fit of the proposed model can be considered as good and more so if we take into account its complexity.