Retrospective analysis of a nonforecasted rain-on-snow flood in the Alps – a matter of model limitations or unpredictable nature?

A rain-on-snow flood occurred in the Bernese Alps, Switzerland, on 10 October 2011, and caused significant damage. As the flood peak was unpredicted by the flood forecast system, questions were raised concerning the causes and the predictability of the event. Here, we aimed to reconstruct the anatomy of this rain-on-snow flood in the Lötschen Valley (160 km2) by analyzing meteorological data from the synoptic to the local scale and by reproducing the flood peak with the hydrological model WaSiM-ETH (Water Flow and Balance Simulation Model). This in order to gain process understanding and to evaluate the predictability. The atmospheric drivers of this rain-on-snow flood were (i) sustained snowfall followed by (ii) the passage of an atmospheric river bringing warm and moist air towards the Alps. As a result, intensive rainfall (average of 100 mm day-1) was accompanied by a temperature increase that shifted the 0° line from 1500 to 3200 m a.s.l. (meters above sea level) in 24 h with a maximum increase of 9 K in 9 h. The south-facing slope of the valley received significantly more precipitation than the north-facing slope, leading to flooding only in tributaries along the south-facing slope. We hypothesized that the reason for this very local rainfall distribution was a cavity circulation combined with a seeder-feeder-cloud system enhancing local rainfall and snowmelt along the south-facing slope. By applying and considerably recalibrating the standard hydrological model setup, we proved that both latent and sensible heat fluxes were needed to reconstruct the snow cover dynamic, and that locally high-precipitation sums (160 mm in 12 h) were required to produce the estimated flood peak. However, to reproduce the rapid runoff responses during the event, we conceptually represent likely lateral flow dynamics within the snow cover causing the model to react "oversensitively" to meltwater. Driving the optimized model with COSMO (Consortium for Small-scale Modeling)-2 forecast data, we still failed to simulate the flood because COSMO-2 forecast data underestimated both the local precipitation peak and the temperature increase. Thus we conclude that this rain-on-snow flood was, in general, predictable, but requires a special hydrological model setup and extensive and locally precise meteorological input data. Although, this data quality may not be achieved with forecast data, an additional model with a specific rain-on-snow configuration can provide useful information when rain-on-snow events are likely to occur.

A physical approach on flood risk vulnerability of buildings

The design of efficient hydrological risk mitigation strategies and their subsequent implementation relies on a careful vulnerability analysis of the elements exposed. Recently, extensive research efforts were undertaken to develop and refine empirical relationships linking the structural vulnerability of buildings to the impact forces of the hazard processes. These empirical vulnerability functions allow estimating the expected direct losses as a result of the hazard scenario based on spatially explicit representation of the process patterns and the elements at risk classified into defined typological categories. However, due to the underlying empiricism of such vulnerability functions, the physics of the damage-generating mechanisms for a well-defined element at risk with its peculiar geometry and structural characteristics remain unveiled, and, as such, the applicability of the empirical approach for planning hazard-proof residential buildings is limited. Therefore, we propose a conceptual assessment scheme to close this gap. This assessment scheme encompasses distinct analytical steps: modelling (a) the process intensity, (b) the impact on the element at risk exposed and (c) the physical response of the building envelope. Furthermore, these results provide the input data for the subsequent damage evaluation and economic damage valuation. This dynamic assessment supports all relevant planning activities with respect to a minimisation of losses, and can be implemented in the operational risk assessment procedure.

Continental degassing of 4He by surficial discharge of deep groundwater

Radiogenic He is produced by the decay of uranium and thorium in the Earth’s mantle and crust. From here, it is degassed to the atmosphere and eventually escapes to space. Assuming that all of the 4He produced is degassed, about 70% of the total He degassed from Earth comes from the continental crust. However, the outgoing flux of crustal He has not been directly measured at the Earth’s surface and the migration pathways are poorly understood. Here we present measurements of helium isotopes and the long-lived cosmogenic radio-isotope Kr in the deep, continental-scale Guarani aquifer in Brazil and show that crustal He reaches the atmosphere primarily by the surficial discharge of deep groundwater. We estimate that He in Guarani groundwater discharge accounts for about 20% of the assumed global flux from continental crust, and that other large aquifers may account for about 33%. Old groundwater ages suggest that He in the Guarani aquifer accumulates over half- to one-millionyear timescales. We conclude that He degassing from the continents is regulated by groundwater discharge, rather than episodic tectonic events, and suggest that the assumed steady state between crustal production and degassing of He, and its resulting atmospheric residence time, should be re-examined.

Lithium isotope constraints on crust–mantle interactions and surface processes on Mars

Lithium abundances and isotope compositions are reported for a suite of martian meteorites that span the range of petrological and geochemical types recognized to date for Mars. Samples include twenty-one bulk-rock enriched, intermediate and depleted shergottites, six nakhlites, two chassignites, the orthopyroxenite Allan Hills (ALH) 84001 and the polymict breccia Northwest Africa (NWA) 7034. Shergottites unaffected by terrestrial weathering exhibit a range in δ7Li from 2.1 to 6.2‰, similar to that reported for pristine terrestrial peridotites and unaltered mid-ocean ridge and ocean island basalts. Two chassignites have δ7Li values (4.0‰) intermediate to the shergottite range, and combined, these meteorites provide the most robust current constraints on δ7Li of the martian mantle. The polymict breccia NWA 7034 has the lowest δ7Li (−0.2‰) of all terrestrially unaltered martian meteorites measured to date and may represent an isotopically light surface end-member. The new data for NWA 7034 imply that martian crustal surface materials had both a lighter Li isotope composition and elevated Li abundance compared with their associated mantle. These findings are supported by Li data for olivine-phyric shergotitte NWA 1068, a black glass phase isolated from the Tissint meteorite fall, and some nakhlites, which all show evidence for assimilation of a low-δ7Li crustal component. The range in δ7Li for nakhlites (1.8 to 5.2‰), and co-variations with chlorine abundance, suggests crustal contamination by Cl-rich brines. The differences in Li isotope composition and abundance between the martian mantle and estimated crust are not as large as the fractionations observed for terrestrial continental crust and mantle, suggesting a difference in the styles of alteration and weathering between water-dominated processes on Earth versus possibly Cl–S-rich brines on Mars. Using high-MgO shergottites (>15 wt.% MgO) it is possible to estimate the δ7Li of Bulk Silicate Mars (BSM) to be 4.2 ± 0.9‰ (2σ). This value is at the higher end of estimates for the Bulk Silicate Earth (BSE; 3.5 ± 1.0‰, 2σ), but overlaps within uncertainty.

Ediacaran 2,500-km-long synchronous deep continental subduction in the West Gondwana Orogen

The deeply eroded West Gondwana Orogen is a major continental collision zone that exposes numerous occurrences of deeply subducted rocks, such as eclogites. The position of these eclogites marks the suture zone between colliding cratons, and the age of metamorphism constrains the transition from subduction-dominated tectonics to continental collision and mountain building. Here we investigate the metamorphic conditions and age of high-pressure and ultrahigh-pressure eclogites from Mali, Togo and NE-Brazil and demonstrate that continental subduction occurred within 20 million years over at least a 2,500-km-long section of the orogen during the Ediacaran. We consider this to be the earliest evidence of large-scale deep-continental subduction and consequent appearance of Himalayan-scale mountains in the geological record. The rise and subsequent erosion of such mountains in the Late Ediacaran is perfectly timed to deliver sediments and nutrients that are thought to have been necessary for the subsequent evolution of sustainable life on Earth.

Valle d’Aosta section of the Sesia Zone: multi-stage HP metamorphism and assembly of a rifted continental margin

The spectrum characteristic of the EMC ranges from eclogites (containing omphacite and/or jadeite, garnet, phengite, glaucophane, zoisite, chloritoid, rutile) to phengite schists, calcschists, and marbles, as well as a variety of orthogneisses. Despite the intense polyphase deformation and HP-metamorphic recrystallization, it is possible in some locations to recognize pre-Alpine characteristics in some of the protoliths. For instance, two types of felsic orthogneiss can be distinguished in the Aosta Valley, one derived from Permian granitoids (with local preservation of intrusive contacts, magmatic inclusions, leucocratic veins and other magmatic structures; Stop 3), the other derived from pre-Variscan leuco-monzogranite, such as the building stone mined at the “Argentera” quarry near Settimo Vittone / Montestrutto (Stop 2; so-called “Verde Argento” contains jadeite, phengite, K-feldspar, quartz). Polycyclic and more rarely monocyclic metasediments contain evidence of a complex Alpine PTDt-evolution, locally including relics of their prograde history from blueschist, one or more stages at eclogite facies. Recent petrochronological studies have dated this HP-evolution of the Sesia Zone in some detail. In the area visited, clear evidence of HP-cycling has been identified in one km-size tectonic slice (Stop 1), but not in adjacent parts of the EMC, indicating “yo-yo tectonics”. Partial retrogression and attendant ductile to brittle deformation of the HP-rocks is evident in one of the outcrops (Stop 4). Apart from the four localities in the Sesia Zone, a final outcrop introduces HP-rocks of the adjacent Piemonte oceanic unit, specifically calc-schists and ophiolite members of the “Zermatt-Saas” zone. The hilltop outcrop (Stop 5) displays foliated antigorite schist with peridotite relics (clinopyroxene, spinel) containing lenses derived from doleritic dykes. These fine-grained metarodingites and the folded veins containing Mg-chlorite and titanoclinohumite within serpentinite once again indicate equilibration under low-temperature eclogite facies conditions. However, these units reached that HP stage more than 20 Ma after the youngest eclogite facies imprint recognized in the Sesia Zone. Despite nearly half a century of intense study in the Sesia Zone, the complex assembly of its HP-terranes and their relation to more external parts of the Western Alps remains incompletely understood. This field guide merely introduces a few of the classic outcrops and discusses some of the critical evidence they contain, but it could not incorporate details on each stage of the evolution recognized so far.