Tracking the uncertainty in flood alerts driven by grand ensemble weather predictions

The incorporation of numerical weather predictions (NWP) into a flood warning system can increase forecast lead times from a few hours to a few days. A single NWP forecast from a single forecast centre, however, is insufficient as it involves considerable non-predictable uncertainties and can lead to a high number of false or missed warnings. Weather forecasts using multiple NWPs from various weather centres implemented on catchment hydrology can provide significantly improved early flood warning. The availability of global ensemble weather prediction systems through the ‘THORPEX Interactive Grand Global Ensemble’ (TIGGE) offers a new opportunity for the development of state-of-the-art early flood forecasting systems. This paper presents a case study using the TIGGE database for flood warning on a meso-scale catchment (4062 km2) located in the Midlands region of England. For the first time, a research attempt is made to set up a coupled atmospheric-hydrologic-hydraulic cascade system driven by the TIGGE ensemble forecasts. A probabilistic discharge and flood inundation forecast is provided as the end product to study the potential benefits of using the TIGGE database. The study shows that precipitation input uncertainties dominate and propagate through the cascade chain. The current NWPs fall short of representing the spatial precipitation variability on such a comparatively small catchment, which indicates need to improve NWPs resolution and/or disaggregating techniques to narrow down the spatial gap between meteorology and hydrology. The spread of discharge forecasts varies from centre to centre, but it is generally large and implies a significant level of uncertainties. Nevertheless, the results show the TIGGE database is a promising tool to forecast flood inundation, comparable with that driven by raingauge observation.

Efficient incorporation of channel cross-section geometry uncertainty into regional and global scale flood inundation models

This paper investigates the challenge of representing structural differences in river channel cross-section geometry for regional to global scale river hydraulic models and the effect this can have on simulations of wave dynamics. Classically, channel geometry is defined using data, yet at larger scales the necessary information and model structures do not exist to take this approach. We therefore propose a fundamentally different approach where the structural uncertainty in channel geometry is represented using a simple parameterization, which could then be estimated through calibration or data assimilation. This paper first outlines the development of a computationally efficient numerical scheme to represent generalised channel shapes using a single parameter, which is then validated using a simple straight channel test case and shown to predict wetted perimeter to within 2% for the channels tested. An application to the River Severn, UK is also presented, along with an analysis of model sensitivity to channel shape, depth and friction. The channel shape parameter was shown to improve model simulations of river level, particularly for more physically plausible channel roughness and depth parameter ranges. Calibrating channel Manning’s coefficient in a rectangular channel provided similar water level simulation accuracy in terms of Nash-Sutcliffe efficiency to a model where friction and shape or depth were calibrated. However, the calibrated Manning coefficient in the rectangular channel model was ~2/3 greater than the likely physically realistic value for this reach and this erroneously slowed wave propagation times through the reach by several hours. Therefore, for large scale models applied in data sparse areas, calibrating channel depth and/or shape may be preferable to assuming a rectangular geometry and calibrating friction alone.

The potential of flood forecasting using a variable-resolution global Digital Terrain Model and flood extents from Synthetic Aperture Radar images

A basic data requirement of a river flood inundation model is a Digital Terrain Model (DTM) of the reach being studied. The scale at which modeling is required determines the accuracy required of the DTM. For modeling floods in urban areas, a high resolution DTM such as that produced by airborne LiDAR (Light Detection And Ranging) is most useful, and large parts of many developed countries have now been mapped using LiDAR. In remoter areas, it is possible to model flooding on a larger scale using a lower resolution DTM, and in the near future the DTM of choice is likely to be that derived from the TanDEM-X Digital Elevation Model (DEM). A variable-resolution global DTM obtained by combining existing high and low resolution data sets would be useful for modeling flood water dynamics globally, at high resolution wherever possible and at lower resolution over larger rivers in remote areas. A further important data resource used in flood modeling is the flood extent, commonly derived from Synthetic Aperture Radar (SAR) images. Flood extents become more useful if they are intersected with the DTM, when water level observations (WLOs) at the flood boundary can be estimated at various points along the river reach. To illustrate the utility of such a global DTM, two examples of recent research involving WLOs at opposite ends of the spatial scale are discussed. The first requires high resolution spatial data, and involves the assimilation of WLOs from a real sequence of high resolution SAR images into a flood model to update the model state with observations over time, and to estimate river discharge and model parameters, including river bathymetry and friction. The results indicate the feasibility of such an Earth Observation-based flood forecasting system. The second example is at a larger scale, and uses SAR-derived WLOs to improve the lower-resolution TanDEM-X DEM in the area covered by the flood extents. The resulting reduction in random height error is significant.

Assessing the reliability of probabilistic flood inundation model predictions

An ability to quantify the reliability of probabilistic flood inundation predictions is a requirement not only for guiding model development but also for their successful application. Probabilistic flood inundation predictions are usually produced by choosing a method of weighting the model parameter space, but previous study suggests that this choice leads to clear differences in inundation probabilities. This study aims to address the evaluation of the reliability of these probabilistic predictions. However, a lack of an adequate number of observations of flood inundation for a catchment limits the application of conventional methods of evaluating predictive reliability. Consequently, attempts have been made to assess the reliability of probabilistic predictions using multiple observations from a single flood event. Here, a LISFLOOD-FP hydraulic model of an extreme (>1 in 1000 years) flood event in Cockermouth, UK, is constructed and calibrated using multiple performance measures from both peak flood wrack mark data and aerial photography captured post-peak. These measures are used in weighting the parameter space to produce multiple probabilistic predictions for the event. Two methods of assessing the reliability of these probabilistic predictions using limited observations are utilized; an existing method assessing the binary pattern of flooding, and a method developed in this paper to assess predictions of water surface elevation. This study finds that the water surface elevation method has both a better diagnostic and discriminatory ability, but this result is likely to be sensitive to the unknown uncertainties in the upstream boundary condition

Improving the TanDEM-X Digital Elevation Model for flood modelling using flood extents from Synthetic Aperture Radar images

The topography of many floodplains in the developed world has now been surveyed with high resolution sensors such as airborne LiDAR (Light Detection and Ranging), giving accurate Digital Elevation Models (DEMs) that facilitate accurate flood inundation modelling. This is not always the case for remote rivers in developing countries. However, the accuracy of DEMs produced for modelling studies on such rivers should be enhanced in the near future by the high resolution TanDEM-X WorldDEM. In a parallel development, increasing use is now being made of flood extents derived from high resolution Synthetic Aperture Radar (SAR) images for calibrating, validating and assimilating observations into flood inundation models in order to improve these. This paper discusses an additional use of SAR flood extents, namely to improve the accuracy of the TanDEM-X DEM in the floodplain covered by the flood extents, thereby permanently improving this DEM for future flood modelling and other studies. The method is based on the fact that for larger rivers the water elevation generally changes only slowly along a reach, so that the boundary of the flood extent (the waterline) can be regarded locally as a quasi-contour. As a result, heights of adjacent pixels along a small section of waterline can be regarded as samples with a common population mean. The height of the central pixel in the section can be replaced with the average of these heights, leading to a more accurate estimate. While this will result in a reduction in the height errors along a waterline, the waterline is a linear feature in a two-dimensional space. However, improvements to the DEM heights between adjacent pairs of waterlines can also be made, because DEM heights enclosed by the higher waterline of a pair must be at least no higher than the corrected heights along the higher waterline, whereas DEM heights not enclosed by the lower waterline must in general be no lower than the corrected heights along the lower waterline. In addition, DEM heights between the higher and lower waterlines can also be assigned smaller errors because of the reduced errors on the corrected waterline heights. The method was tested on a section of the TanDEM-X Intermediate DEM (IDEM) covering an 11km reach of the Warwickshire Avon, England. Flood extents from four COSMO-SKyMed images were available at various stages of a flood in November 2012, and a LiDAR DEM was available for validation. In the area covered by the flood extents, the original IDEM heights had a mean difference from the corresponding LiDAR heights of 0.5 m with a standard deviation of 2.0 m, while the corrected heights had a mean difference of 0.3 m with standard deviation 1.2 m. These figures show that significant reductions in IDEM height bias and error can be made using the method, with the corrected error being only 60% of the original. Even if only a single SAR image obtained near the peak of the flood was used, the corrected error was only 66% of the original. The method should also be capable of improving the final TanDEM-X DEM and other DEMs, and may also be of use with data from the SWOT (Surface Water and Ocean Topography) satellite.

How do people perceive, understand, and anticipate responding to flash flood risks and warnings? Results from a public survey in Boulder, Colorado, USA

This study investigates flash flood forecast and warning communication, interpretation, and decision making, using data from a survey of 418 members of the public in Boulder, Colorado, USA. Respondents to the public survey varied in their perceptions and understandings of flash flood risks in Boulder, and some had misconceptions about flash flood risks, such as the safety of crossing fast-flowing water. About 6% of respondents indicated consistent reversals of US watch-warning alert terminology. However, more in-depth analysis illustrates the multi-dimensional, situationally dependent meanings of flash flood alerts, as well as the importance of evaluating interpretation and use of warning information along with alert terminology. Some public respondents estimated low likelihoods of flash flooding given a flash flood warning; these were associated with lower anticipated likelihood of taking protective action given a warning. Protective action intentions were also lower among respondents who had less trust in flash flood warnings, those who had not made prior preparations for flash flooding, and those who believed themselves to be safer from flash flooding. Additional analysis, using open-ended survey questions about responses to warnings, elucidates the complex, contextual nature of protective decision making during flash flood threats. These findings suggest that warnings can play an important role not only by notifying people that there is a threat and helping motivate people to take protective action, but also by helping people evaluate what actions to take given their situation.

Palaeomagnetism, rock magnetism and AMS of the Cabo Magmatic Province, NE Brazil, and the opening of South Atlantic

P>Reconstruction of the South Atlantic opening has long been a matter of debate and several models have been proposed. One problem in tracing properly the Atlantic history arises from the existence of a long interval without geomagnetic reversals, the Cretaceous Normal Superchron, for which ages are difficult to assign. Palaeomagnetism may help in addressing this issue if high-quality palaeomagnetic poles are available for the two drifting continental blocks, and if precise absolute ages are available. In this work we have investigated the Cabo Magmatic Province, northeastern Brazil, recently dated at 102 +/- 1 Ma (zircon fission tracks, Ar39/Ar40). All volcanic and plutonic rocks showed stable thermal and AF demagnetization patterns, and exhibit primary magnetic signatures. AMS data also support a primary origin for the magnetic fabric and is interpreted to be contemporaneous of the rock formation. The obtained pole is located at 335.9 degrees E/87.9 degrees S (N = 24; A(95) = 2.5; K = 138) and satisfies modern quality criteria, resulting in a reference pole for South America at similar to 100 Ma. This new pole also gives an insight to test and discuss the kinematic models currently proposed for the South Atlantic opening during mid-Cretaceous.

Flood Risk Assessment in Coastal Drainage Basins through a Multivariate Analysis within a GIS-Based Model

This paper presents a GIS-based multicriteria flood risk assessment and mapping approach applied to coastal drainage basins where hydrological data are not available. It involves risk to different types of possible processes: coastal inundation (storm surge), river, estuarine and flash flood, either at urban or natural areas, and fords. Based on the causes of these processes, several environmental indicators were taken to build-up the risk assessment. Geoindicators include geological-geomorphologic proprieties of Quaternary sedimentary units, water table, drainage basin morphometry, coastal dynamics, beach morphodynamics and microclimatic characteristics. Bioindicators involve coastal plain and low slope native vegetation categories and two alteration states. Anthropogenic indicators encompass land use categories properties such as: type, occupation density, urban structure type and occupation consolidation degree. The selected indicators were stored within an expert Geoenvironmental Information System developed for the State of Sao Paulo Coastal Zone (SIIGAL), which attributes were mathematically classified through deterministic approaches, in order to estimate natural susceptibilities (Sn), human-induced susceptibilities (Sa), return period of rain events (Ri), potential damages (Dp) and the risk classification (R), according to the equation R=(Sn.Sa.Ri).Dp. Thematic maps were automatically processed within the SIIGAL, in which automata cells (""geoenvironmental management units"") aggregating geological-geomorphologic and land use/native vegetation categories were the units of classification. The method has been applied to the Northern Littoral of the State of Sao Paulo (Brazil) in 32 small drainage basins, demonstrating to be very useful for coastal zone public politics, civil defense programs and flood management.

New and little-known cheilostomatous Bryozoa from the south and southeastern Brazilian continental shelf and slope

The present paper reports on 22 species collected by the Brazilian Program of Living Resources in the Exclusive Economic Zone (REVIZEE). A new genus and species of Cribrilinidae, Corbuliporina crepida n. gen. et sp., is described, along with seventeen other new species: Chaperia brasiliensis n. sp., Amastigia aviculifera n. sp., Isosecuriflustra pinniformis n. sp., Cellaria subtropicalis n. sp., Melicerita brasiliensis n. sp., Arachnopusia haywardi n. sp., Smittina migottoi n. sp., Hippomenella amaralae n. sp., Rogicka joannae n. sp., Malakosaria atlantica n. sp., Turbicellepora winstonae n. sp., Rhynchozoon coalitum n. sp., Stephanollona angusta n. sp., Stephanollona arborescens n. sp., Aulopocella americana n. sp., Conescharellina cookae n. sp. and Conescharellina bocki n. sp. Chorizopora brongniartii (Audouin, 1826) is recorded for the first time in Brazilian waters and a new combination for Rhynchozoon arborescens Canu & Bassler, 1928 is established. New illustrations and taxonomic remarks are included for two little-known species from Brazil, Rogicka scopae (Canu & Bassler, 1928) and Fenestrulina ampla Canu & Bassler, 1928. A compilation of species recorded from deeper waters of the Brazilian coast is included.

Contributions to the taxonomy of the Normanellidae (Copepoda, Harpacticoida): description of a new genus from the Brazilian continental shelf and re-assignment of Pseudocletodes vararensis Scott & Scott, 1893 (ex Nannopodidae)

A new genus and species of Normanellidae (Copepoda, Harpacticoida), Paranaiara inajae gen. et sp. nov., is described from the continental shelf off the northern coast of Sao Paulo State, Brazil. The new genus differs from the type genus Normanella Brady, 1880 and Sagamiella Lee & Huys, 1999 in its presence of lamelliform caudal rami, a maxillulary endopod represented by 2 setae, an unarmed maxillipedal syncoxa, and reduced setation on P2 enp-2 (without outer spine) and P3 enp-2 (with only 2 inner setae). All these apomorphic character states are shared with the genus Pseudocletodes Scott & Scott, 1893, formerly placed in the family Nannopodidae (ex Huntemanniidae) and here assigned to the Normanellidae. Pseudocletodes can be differentiated from Paranaiara by the loss of the P1 endopod and of the inner seta on P2-P4 enp-1, the presence of only 2 inner setae on P2 enp-2 (instead of 3) and only 1 inner seta on P4 exp-3 (instead of 2), the presence of a second inner seta on P4 enp-2 (instead of 1), the morphology of the fifth pair of legs which are not medially fused and have only 3 endopodal elements (instead of 4) in the male, and the well developed caudal ramus seta V (instead of rudimentary). It is postulated that prehensility of the P1 endopod was secondarily lost in the common ancestor of Paranaiara and Pseudocletodes. An updated family diagnosis of the Normanellidae and a dichotomous identification key to the 22 currently valid species are presented.

Post-collisional lamprophyric event in Sierra Norte, Cordoba, Argentina: Mineralogical, geochemical and isotopic characteristics

Over 20 lamprophyre dykes, varying in width between a few centimeters and several meters, have been identified in central Sierra Norte - Eastern Pampean Ranges, Cordoba, Argentina. Their mineralogy and chemistry indicate that they are part of the calc-alkaline lamprophyres clan (CAL). They contain phenocrysts of magnesiohomblende +/- augite set in a groundmass of magnesiohornblende, calcic-plagioclase, alkali feldspar, and opaque minerals, which designate them as spessartite-type lamprophyres. Alteration products include chlorite, calcite and iron oxides after malfic phenocrysts, though some are partially replaced by actinolite. Feldspars are replaced by carbonate and clay minerals. The dykes are relatively primitive, and show restricted major element variation (SiO(2) 51.1-55.3 wt.%, Al(2)O(3) 12-16.6 wt.%, total alkalies 1.5-4.7 wt.%), high Mg# (55-77), high Cr contents (27-988 ppm) and moderate to high Ni contents (60-190 ppm). Lamprophyre LILE (e.g. Rb averages 110 ppm, Sr 211-387 ppm, Ba 203-452 ppm) are high relative to HFSE (e.g., Ta 0.2-1.6 ppm, Nb 4-11 ppm, Y 17-21 ppm), and are enriched in LREE (30-70 times chondrite). They are characterized by relatively high (208)Pb/(204)Pb (38.8-39.9), (207)Pb/(204)Pb(similar to 15.7), and (206)Pb/(204)Pb (18.7-20.1), combined with low (epsilon)epsilon(Nd) (-4.69 to -1.52) and a relative moderately high ((87)Sr/(86)Sr)(i) of 0.7055-0.7074. The Rb-Sr whole rock isochron indicates an Early Ordovician age of 485 +/- 25 Ma. The calculated T(DM) (1.7 Ga) suggests that these rocks appear to have originated from a reservoir that was created during a mantle metasomatism event related to the Pampean orogeny. The Sierra Norte lamprophyres show affinities with a subduction-related magma in an active continental margin. Their geochemical and isotopic features suggest a multicomponent source, composed of enriched mantle material variably contaminated by crustal components. The lamprophyric suite emplacement occurred at the dawning stage of the Pampean orogeny, in a regional post-collisional extensional setting developed in the Sierra Norte-Ambargasta batholith (SNAB) in Early Ordovician times. (C) 2008 Published by Elsevier Ltd.

Cordierite-bearing lavas from Jaguarao, southern Brazil: Petrological evidence for crustal melts during early rifting of Gondwana

The Jaguarao stratoid dacites (Rio Grande do Sul, Brazil) are limited in areal extent, are comprised of about 3.2 km(3) of preserved erupted material, and outcrop only in areas of the region underlain by mylonitic and ultramylonitic rocks. They are S-type volcanic rocks containing cordierite, orthopyroxene, plagioclase, and ilmenite as liquidus phases, and partially melted granite, gneiss, and migmatite enclaves that are very similar to the Precambrian basement rocks. The Jaguarao lavas have distinct geochemical signatures and Sr-Nd isotopes with respect to other volcanic rocks of the region. Available geochronological data for Jaguarao dacites range between 157 +/- 5 Ma and 139.6 +/- 7.4 Ma. Considering the errors, the younger ages obtained for Jaguarao lavas overlap the 138-128 Ma age of rocks of the Serra Geral Group, and thus indicate that the dacites were erupted prior to the break-up of Gondwana in this region. Petrographic, mineralogical, and petrochemical data, as well as the tectonic context of the Jaguarao lavas, suggest that magma genesis was linked, at least in part, to friction melts. The dacitic magma was generated by partial melting reactions involving biotite breakdown in a dominantly quartz-feldspathic source terrane, leaving a granulite facies residue in subsurface. These melts were probably generated as a consequence of crustal thinning linked to simple shear extension just prior to Gondwana break-up and rifting of the southern Atlantic Ocean. (C) 2009 International Association for Gondwana Research. Published by Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.