Financial crisis: theory and practice

In the last 50 years, we have had approximately 40 events with characteristics related to financial crisis. The most severe crisis was in 1929, when the financial markets plummet and the US gross domestic product decline in more than 30 percent. Recently some years ago, a new crisis developed in the United States, but instantly caused consequences and effects in the rest of the world.This new economic and financial crisis has increased the interest and motivation for the academic community, professors and researchers, to understand the causes and effects of the crisis, to learn from it. This is the one of the main reasons for the compilation of this book, which begins with a meeting of a group of IAFI researchers from the University of Barcelona, where researchers form Mexico and Spain, explain causes and consequences of the crisis of 2007.For that reason, we believed this set of chapters related to methodologies, applications and theories, would conveniently explained the characteristics and events of the past and future financial crisisThis book consists in 3 main sections, the first one called "State of the Art and current situation", the second named "Econometric applications to estimate crisis time periods" , and the third one "Solutions to diminish the effects of the crisis". The first section explains the current point of view of many research papers related to financial crisis, it has 2 chapters. In the first one, it describe and analyzes the models that historically have been used to explain financial crisis, furthermore, it proposes to used alternative methodologies such as Fuzzy Cognitive Maps. On the other hand , Chapter 2 , explains the characteristics and details of the 2007 crisis from the US perspective and its comparison to 1929 crisis, presenting some effects in Mexico and Latin America.The second section presents two econometric applications to estimate possible crisis periods. For this matter, Chapter 3, studies 3 Latin-American countries: Argentina, Brazil and Peru in the 1994 crisis and estimates the multifractal characteristics to identify financial and economic distress.Chapter 4 explains the crisis situations in Argentina (2001), Mexico (1994) and the recent one in the United States (2007) and its effects in other countries through a financial series methodology related to the stock market.The last section shows an alternative to prevent the effects of the crisis. The first chapter explains the financial stability effects through the financial system regulation and some globalization standards. Chapter 6, study the benefits of the Investor activism and a way to protect personal and national wealth to face the financial crisis risks.

Epac contributes to cardiac hypertrophy and amyloidosis induced by radiotherapy but not fibrosis.

BACKGROUND: Cardiac toxicity is a side-effect of anti-cancer treatment including radiotherapy and this translational study was initiated to characterize radiation-induced cardiac side effects in a population of breast cancer patients and in experimental models in order to identify novel therapeutic target. METHODS: The size of the heart was evaluated in CO-HO-RT patients by measuring the Cardiac-Contact-Distance before and after radiotherapy (48months of follow-up). In parallel, fibrogenic signals were studied in a severe case of human radiation-induced pericarditis. Lastly, radiation-induced cardiac damage was studied in mice and in rat neonatal cardiac cardiomyocytes. RESULTS: In patients, time dependent enhancement of the CCD was measured suggesting occurrence of cardiac hypertrophy. In the case of human radiation-induced pericarditis, we measured the activation of fibrogenic (CTGF, RhoA) and remodeling (MMP2) signals. In irradiated mice, we documented decreased contractile function, enlargement of the ventricular cavity and long-term modification of the time constant of decay of Ca(2+) transients. Both hypertrophy and amyloid deposition were correlated with the induction of Epac-1; whereas radiation-induced fibrosis correlated with Rho/CTGF activation. Transactivation studies support Epac contribution in hypertrophy stimulation and showed that radiotherapy and Epac displayed specific and synergistic signals. CONCLUSION: Epac-1 has been identified as a novel regulator of radiation-induced hypertrophy and amyloidosis but not fibrosis in the heart.

Procedure for human saphenous veins ex vivo perfusion and external reinforcement.

The mainstay of contemporary therapies for extensive occlusive arterial disease is venous bypass graft. However, its durability is threatened by intimal hyperplasia (IH) that eventually leads to vessel occlusion and graft failure. Mechanical forces, particularly low shear stress and high wall tension, are thought to initiate and to sustain these cellular and molecular changes, but their exact contribution remains to be unraveled. To selectively evaluate the role of pressure and shear stress on the biology of IH, an ex vivo perfusion system (EVPS) was created to perfuse segments of human saphenous veins under arterial regimen (high shear stress and high pressure). Further technical innovations allowed the simultaneous perfusion of two segments from the same vein, one reinforced with an external mesh. Veins were harvested using a no-touch technique and immediately transferred to the laboratory for assembly in the EVPS. One segment of the freshly isolated vein was not perfused (control, day 0). The two others segments were perfused for up to 7 days, one being completely sheltered with a 4 mm (diameter) external mesh. The pressure, flow velocity, and pulse rate were continuously monitored and adjusted to mimic the hemodynamic conditions prevailing in the femoral artery. Upon completion of the perfusion, veins were dismounted and used for histological and molecular analysis. Under ex vivo conditions, high pressure perfusion (arterial, mean = 100 mm Hg) is sufficient to generate IH and remodeling of human veins. These alterations are reduced in the presence of an external polyester mesh.

Parents' alcohol use: gender differences in the impact of household and family chores.

BACKGROUND: Social roles influence alcohol use. Nevertheless, little is known about how specific aspects of a given role, here parenthood, may influence alcohol use. The research questions for this study were the following: (i) are family-related indicators (FRI) linked to the alcohol use of mothers and fathers? and (ii) does the level of employment, i.e. full-time, part-time employment or unemployment, moderate the relationship between FRI and parental alcohol use? METHODS: Survey data of 3217 parents aged 25-50 living in Switzerland. Mean comparisons and multiple regression models of annual frequency of drinking and risky single occasion drinking, quantity per day on FRI (age of the youngest child, number of children in the household, majority of child-care/household duties). RESULTS: Protective relationships between FRI and alcohol use were observed among mothers. In contrast, among fathers, detrimental associations between FRI and alcohol use were observed. Whereas maternal responsibilities in general had a protective effect on alcohol use, the number of children had a detrimental impact on the quantity of alcohol consumed per day when mothers were in paid employment. Among fathers, the correlations between age of the youngest child, number of children and frequency of drinking was moderated by the level of paid employment. CONCLUSION: The study showed that in Switzerland, a systematic negative relationship was more often found between FRI and women's drinking than men's. Evidence was found that maternal responsibilities per se may protect from alcohol use but can turn into a detrimental triangle if mothers are additionally in paid employment.

Ab initio cluster-model study of the on-top chemisorption of F and Cl on Si(111) and Ge(111) surfaces

The interaction of atomic F and Cl with Si4H9 and Ge4H9 cluster models has been studied by using ab initio pseudopotentials and basis sets of increasing complexity. The results show that the effect of d orbitals is important in order to reproduce the experimental findings. However, the use of polarization functions in the atoms which are directly involved in the chemisorption bond leads to results which are very close to those obtained using extended basis sets. The local nature of the chemisorption bond is also interpreted by means of a Mulliken population analysis. For F-Si4H9 and Cl-Si4H9 the present results are in good agreement with previous ab initio all-electron calculations, and for the chemisorption of Cl on Si(111) and Ge(111) surfaces, good agreement is found with respect to the available experimental results as well as with previous slab calculations based on the local-density-functional formalism.

Chemisorption of group-III metals on the Si(111) and Ge(111) surfaces: An ab initio study

Chemisorption of group-III metal adatoms on Si(111) and Ge(111) has been studied through the ab initio Hartree-Fock method including nonempirical pseudopotentials and using cluster models to simulate the surface. Three different high-symmetry sites (atop, eclipsed, and open) have been considered by using X4H9, X4H7, and X6H9 (X=Si,Ge) cluster models. In a first step, ideal surface geometries have been used. Metal-induced reconstruction upon chemisorption has also been taken into account. Equilibrium distances, binding energies, and vibrational frequencies have been obtained and compared with available experimental data. From binding-energy considerations, the atop and eclipsed sites seem to be the most favorable ones and thus a coadsorption picture may be suggested. Group-III metals exhibit a similar behavior and the same is true for Si(111) and Ge(111) surfaces when chemisorption is considered.

The permeability P-glycoprotein: a focus on enantioselectivity and brain distribution.

IMPORTANCE OF THE FIELD: The permeability glycoprotein (P-gp) is an important protein transporter involved in the disposition of many drugs with different chemical structures, but few studies have examined a possible stereoselectivity in its activity. P-gp can have a major impact on the distribution of drugs in selected organs, including the brain. Polymorphisms of the ABCB1 gene, which encodes for P-gp, can influence the kinetics of several drugs. AREAS COVERED IN THIS REVIEW: A search including publications from 1990 up to 2009 was performed on P-gp stereoselectivity and on the impact of ABCB1 polymorphisms on enantiomer brain distribution. WHAT THE READER WILL GAIN: Despite stereoselectivity not being expected because of the large variability of chemical structures of P-gp substrates, structure-activity relationships suggest different P-gp-binding sites for enantiomers. Enantioselectivity in the activity of P-gp has been demonstrated by in vitro studies and in animal models (preferential transport of one enantiomer or different inhibitory potencies towards P-gp activity between enantiomers). There is also in vivo evidence of an enantioselective drug transport at the human blood-brain barrier. TAKE HOME MESSAGE: The significant enantioselective activity of P-gp might be clinically relevant and must be taken into account in future studies.

A benchmark test for a quantitative assessment of simple neuron models

Several methods and algorithms have recently been proposed that allow for the systematic evaluation of simple neuron models from intracellular or extracellular recordings. Models built in this way generate good quantitative predictions of the future activity of neurons under temporally structured current injection. It is, however, difficult to compare the advantages of various models and algorithms since each model is designed for a different set of data. Here, we report about one of the first attempts to establish a benchmark test that permits a systematic comparison of methods and performances in predicting the activity of rat cortical pyramidal neurons. We present early submissions to the benchmark test and discuss implications for the design of future tests and simple neurons models

Durability and outcome of initial antiretroviral treatments received during 2000--2005 by patients in the Swiss HIV Cohort Study.

BACKGROUND: Little is known about time trends, predictors, and consequences of changes made to antiretroviral therapy (ART) regimens early after patients initially start treatment. METHODS: We compared the incidence of, reasons for, and predictors of treatment change within 1 year after starting combination ART (cART), as well as virological and immunological outcomes at 1 year, among 1866 patients from the Swiss HIV Cohort Study who initiated cART during 2000--2001, 2002--2003, or 2004--2005. RESULTS: The durability of initial regimens did not improve over time (P = .15): 48.8% of 625 patients during 2000--2001, 43.8% of 607 during 2002--2003, and 44.3% of 634 during 2004--2005 changed cART within 1 year; reasons for change included intolerance (51.1% of all patients), patient wish (15.4%), physician decision (14.8%), and virological failure (7.1%). An increased probability of treatment change was associated with larger CD4+ cell counts, larger human immunodeficiency virus type 1 (HIV-1) RNA loads, and receipt of regimens that contained stavudine or indinavir/ritonavir, but a decreased probability was associated with receipt of regimens that contained tenofovir. Treatment discontinuation was associated with larger CD4+ cell counts, current use of injection drugs, and receipt of regimens that contained nevirapine. One-year outcomes improved between 2000--2001 and 2004--2005: 84.5% and 92.7% of patients, respectively, reached HIV-1 RNA loads of <50 copies/mL and achieved median increases in CD4+ cell counts of 157.5 and 197.5 cells/microL, respectively (P < .001 for all comparisons). CONCLUSIONS: Virological and immunological outcomes of initial treatments improved between 2000--2001 and 2004--2005, irrespective of uniformly high rates of early changes in treatment across the 3 study intervals.

The influence of environmental spatial structure on the life history traits and diversity of species in a metacommunity

Several models have been proposed to understand how so many species can coexist in ecosystems. Despite evidence showing that natural habitats are often patchy and fragmented, these models rarely take into account environmental spatial structure. In this study we investigated the influence of spatial structure in habitat and disturbance regime upon species' traits and species' coexistence in a metacommunity. We used a population-based model to simulate competing species in spatially explicit landscapes. The species traits we focused on were dispersal ability, competitiveness, reproductive investment and survival rate. Communities were characterized by their species richness and by the four life-history traits averaged over all the surviving species. Our results show that spatial structure and disturbance have a strong influence on the equilibrium life-history traits within a metacommunity. In the absence of disturbance, spatially structured landscapes favour species investing more in reproduction, but less in dispersal and survival. However, this influence is strongly dependent on the disturbance rate, pointing to an important interaction between spatial structure and disturbance. This interaction also plays a role in species coexistence. While spatial structure tends to reduce diversity in the absence of disturbance, the tendency is reversed when disturbance occurs. In conclusion, the spatial structure of communities is an important determinant of their diversity and characteristic traits. These traits are likely to influence important ecological properties such as resistance to invasion or response to climate change, which in turn will determine the fate of ecosystems facing the current global ecological crisis.

"Suddenly I get into the zone": Examining discontinuities and nonlinear changes in flow experiences at work

Work-related flow is defined as a sudden and enjoyable merging of action and awareness that represents a peak experience in the daily lives of workers. Employees" perceptions of challenge and skill and their subjective experiences in terms of enjoyment, interest and absorption were measured using the experience sampling method, yielding a total of 6981 observations from a sample of 60 employees. Linear and nonlinear approaches were applied in order to model both continuous and sudden changes. According to the R2, AICc and BIC indexes, the nonlinear dynamical systems model (i.e. cusp catastrophe model) fit the data better than the linear and logistic regression models. Likewise, the cusp catastrophe model appears to be especially powerful for modelling those cases of high levels of flow. Overall, flow represents a nonequilibrium condition that combines continuous and abrupt changes across time. Research and intervention efforts concerned with this process should focus on the variable of challenge, which, according to our study, appears to play a key role in the abrupt changes observed in work-related flow.

Factors favoring a degradation or an improvement in activities of daily living (ADL) performance among nursing home (NH) residents: A survival analysis.

Different factors influence ADL performance among nursing home (NH) residents in long term care. The aim was to investigate which factors were associated with a significant change of ADL performance in NH residents, and whether or not these factors were gender-specific. The design was a survival analysis. The 10,199 participants resided in ninety Swiss NHs. Their ADL performance had been assessed by the Resident Assessment Instrument Minimum Data Set (RAI-MDS) in the period from 1997 to 2007. Relevant change in ADL performance was defined as 2 levels of change on the ADL scale between two successive assessments. The occurrence of either an improvement or a degradation of the ADL status) was analyzed using the Cox proportional hazard model. The analysis included a total of 10,199 NH residents. Each resident received between 2 and 23 assessments. Poor balance, incontinence, impaired cognition, a low BMI, impaired vision, no daily contact with proxies, impaired hearing and the presence of depression were, by hierarchical order, significant risk factors for NH residents to experience a degradation of ADL performance. Residents, who were incontinent, cognitively impaired or had a high BMI were significantly less likely to improve their ADL abilities. Male residents with cancer were prone to see their ADL improve. The year of NH entry was significantly associated with either degradation or improvement of ADL performance. Measures aiming at improving balance and continence, promoting physical activity, providing appropriate nourishment and cognitive enhancement are important for ADL performance in NH residents.

Überinfusion von Verbrennungsopfern: häufig und schädlich [Over infusion in burn victims: frequent and injurious]

Major burns are characterized by an initial capillary leak, which requires fluid resuscitation for hemodynamic stabilization. While under resuscitation was the major cause of death until the 1980s, over resuscitation has become an important source of complications, including abdominal compartment syndrome, escharosis, impaired gas exchange with prolonged mechanical ventilation and hospital stay. Fluid over infusion started in the 1990s with an increasing proportion of the fluid delivered within the first 24 h being well above the 4 ml/kg/% burn surface area (BSA) according to the Parkland formula. The first alerts were published in the form of case reports of increased mortality due to abdominal compartment syndrome and respiratory failure. This paper analyses the causes of this fluid over infusion and the ways to prevent it, which include rationing prehospital fluid delivery, avoiding early administration of colloids and prevention by permissive hypovolemia.

Quantifying the weight of fingerprint evidence through the spatial relationship, directions and types of minutiae observed on fingermarks

This paper presents a statistical model for the quantification of the weight of fingerprint evidence. Contrarily to previous models (generative and score-based models), our model proposes to estimate the probability distributions of spatial relationships, directions and types of minutiae observed on fingerprints for any given fingermark. Our model is relying on an AFIS algorithm provided by 3M Cogent and on a dataset of more than 4,000,000 fingerprints to represent a sample from a relevant population of potential sources. The performance of our model was tested using several hundreds of minutiae configurations observed on a set of 565 fingermarks. In particular, the effects of various sub-populations of fingers (i.e., finger number, finger general pattern) on the expected evidential value of our test configurations were investigated. The performance of our model indicates that the spatial relationship between minutiae carries more evidential weight than their type or direction. Our results also indicate that the AFIS component of our model directly enables us to assign weight to fingerprint evidence without the need for the additional layer of complex statistical modeling involved by the estimation of the probability distributions of fingerprint features. In fact, it seems that the AFIS component is more sensitive to the sub-population effects than the other components of the model. Overall, the data generated during this research project contributes to support the idea that fingerprint evidence is a valuable forensic tool for the identification of individuals.

Microalbuminuria and hyperfiltration in subjects with nephro-urological disorders.

BACKGROUND: Microalbuminuria (MA) has been shown to be an early biomarker of renal damage. It is postulated that MA is the early result of hyperfiltration, which could evolve into glomerular sclerosis and renal failure if hyperfiltration is left untreated. We hypothesized that MA is a good indicator of hyperfiltration in children with kidney disorders, obviating the need to calculate the filtration fraction (FF). METHODS: A total of 155 children or young adults were prospectively included [42 single kidney (SK), 61 vesico-ureteral reflux, 23 obstructive uropathies, 29 other kidney diseases]. We measured inulin, para-aminohippuric acid clearances, FF and MA. Prediction of hyperfiltration was explored by studying the association between the FF and other variables such as urinary albumin (Alb), urinary albumin-creatinine ratio (ACR) and creatinine clearance. RESULTS: A significant but weak association between urinary Alb or ACR and FF was found in subjects with an SK (Spearman correlation coefficients 0.32 and 0.19, respectively). Multivariate analysis also showed that urinary Alb and ACR significantly predict FF only in subjects with an SK (r(2) = 0.17, P = 0.01 and r(2) = 0.13, P = 0.02, respectively). This holds true only in subjects with an SK and inulin clearance >90 mL/min/1.73 m(2) (r(2) = 0.41, P < 0.001). There was no association between creatinine clearance and FF. CONCLUSIONS: MA is not associated with FF in our subjects with nephro-urological disorders, except in those with an SK, where the association is weak, indicating that MA is due to other mechanisms than high FF and cannot predict hyperfiltration in such groups.