A fast cross-entropy method for estimating buffer overflows in queuing networks

In this paper, we propose a fast adaptive importance sampling method for the efficient simulation of buffer overflow probabilities in queueing networks. The method comprises three stages. First, we estimate the minimum cross-entropy tilting parameter for a small buffer level; next, we use this as a starting value for the estimation of the optimal tilting parameter for the actual (large) buffer level. Finally, the tilting parameter just found is used to estimate the overflow probability of interest. We study various properties of the method in more detail for the M/M/1 queue and conjecture that similar properties also hold for quite general queueing networks. Numerical results support this conjecture and demonstrate the high efficiency of the proposed algorithm.

A two-phase strategy for detecting recombination in nucleotide sequences

Genetic recombination can produce heterogeneous phylogenetic histories within a set of homologous genes. Delineating recombination events is important in the study of molecular evolution, as inference of such events provides a clearer picture of the phylogenetic relationships among different gene sequences or genomes. Nevertheless, detecting recombination events can be a daunting task, as the performance of different recombination-detecting approaches can vary, depending on evolutionary events that take place after recombination. We previously evaluated the effects of post-recombination events on the prediction accuracy of recombination-detecting approaches using simulated nucleotide sequence data. The main conclusion, supported by other studies, is that one should not depend on a single method when searching for recombination events. In this paper, we introduce a two-phase strategy, applying three statistical measures to detect the occurrence of recombination events, and a Bayesian phylogenetic approach to delineate breakpoints of such events in nucleotide sequences. We evaluate the performance of these approaches using simulated data, and demonstrate the applicability of this strategy to empirical data. The two-phase strategy proves to be time-efficient when applied to large datasets, and yields high-confidence results.

An improved novel method for solving nonlinear boundary value problems

A modified formula for the integral transform of a nonlinear function is proposed for a class of nonlinear boundary value problems. The technique presented in this paper results in analytical solutions. Iterations and initial guess, which are needed in other techniques, are not required in this novel technique. The analytical solutions are found to agree surprisingly well with the numerically exact solutions for two examples of power law reaction and Langmuir-Hinshelwood reaction in a catalyst pellet.

Non-Equilibrium Reaction Rates in the Macroscopic Chemistry Method for DSMC Calculations

The Direct Simulation Monte Carlo (DSMC) method is used to simulate the flow of rarefied gases. In the Macroscopic Chemistry Method (MCM) for DSMC, chemical reaction rates calculated from local macroscopic flow properties are enforced in each cell. Unlike the standard total collision energy (TCE) chemistry model for DSMC, the new method is not restricted to an Arrhenius form of the reaction rate coefficient, nor is it restricted to a collision cross-section which yields a simple power-law viscosity. For reaction rates of interest in aerospace applications, chemically reacting collisions are generally infrequent events and, as such, local equilibrium conditions are established before a significant number of chemical reactions occur. Hence, the reaction rates which have been used in MCM have been calculated from the reaction rate data which are expected to be correct only for conditions of thermal equilibrium. Here we consider artificially high reaction rates so that the fraction of reacting collisions is not small and propose a simple method of estimating the rates of chemical reactions which can be used in the Macroscopic Chemistry Method in both equilibrium and non-equilibrium conditions. Two tests are presented: (1) The dissociation rates under conditions of thermal non-equilibrium are determined from a zero-dimensional Monte-Carlo sampling procedure which simulates ‘intra-modal’ non-equilibrium; that is, equilibrium distributions in each of the translational, rotational and vibrational modes but with different temperatures for each mode; (2) The 2-D hypersonic flow of molecular oxygen over a vertical plate at Mach 30 is calculated. In both cases the new method produces results in close agreement with those given by the standard TCE model in the same highly nonequilibrium conditions. We conclude that the general method of estimating the non-equilibrium reaction rate is a simple means by which information contained within non-equilibrium distribution functions predicted by the DSMC method can be included in the Macroscopic Chemistry Method.

A hybrid planning method for transmission networks in a deregulated environment

The reconstruction of power industries has brought fundamental changes to both power system operation and planning. This paper presents a new planning method using multi-objective optimization (MOOP) technique, as well as human knowledge, to expand the transmission network in open access schemes. The method starts with a candidate pool of feasible expansion plans. Consequent selection of the best candidates is carried out through a MOOP approach, of which multiple objectives are tackled simultaneously, aiming at integrating the market operation and planning as one unified process in context of deregulated system. Human knowledge has been applied in both stages to ensure the selection with practical engineering and management concerns. The expansion plan from MOOP is assessed by reliability criteria before it is finalized. The proposed method has been tested with the IEEE 14-bus system and relevant analyses and discussions have been presented.

Spatial Technologies: What use are they to managers of environmental lands?

This paper reviews the potential use of three types of spatial technology to land managers, namely satellite imagery, satellite positioning systems and supporting computer software. Developments in remote sensing and the relative advantages of multispectral and hyperspectral images are discussed. The main challenge to the wider use of remote sensing as a land management tool is seen as uncertainty whether apparent relationships between biophysical variables and spectral reflectance are direct and causal, or artefacts of particular images. Developments in satellite positioning systems are presented in the context of land managers’ need for position estimates in situations where absolute precision may or may not be required. The role of computer software in supporting developments in spatial technology is described. Spatial technologies are seen as having matured beyond empirical applications to the stage where they are useful and reliable land management tools. In addition, computer software has become more user-friendly and this has facilitated data collection and manipulation by semi-expert as well as specialist staff.

Using the level set method to model endogenous lava dome growth

Modeling volcanic phenomena is complicated by free-surfaces often supporting large rheological gradients. Analytical solutions and analogue models provide explanations for fundamental characteristics of lava flows. But more sophisticated models are needed, incorporating improved physics and rheology to capture realistic events. To advance our understanding of the flow dynamics of highly viscous lava in Peléean lava dome formation, axi-symmetrical Finite Element Method (FEM) models of generic endogenous dome growth have been developed. We use a novel technique, the level-set method, which tracks a moving interface, leaving the mesh unaltered. The model equations are formulated in an Eulerian framework. In this paper we test the quality of this technique in our numerical scheme by considering existing analytical and experimental models of lava dome growth which assume a constant Newtonian viscosity. We then compare our model against analytical solutions for real lava domes extruded on Soufrière, St. Vincent, W.I. in 1979 and Mount St. Helens, USA in October 1980 using an effective viscosity. The level-set method is found to be computationally light and robust enough to model the free-surface of a growing lava dome. Also, by modeling the extruded lava with a constant pressure head this naturally results in a drop in extrusion rate with increasing dome height, which can explain lava dome growth observables more appropriately than when using a fixed extrusion rate. From the modeling point of view, the level-set method will ultimately provide an opportunity to capture more of the physics while benefiting from the numerical robustness of regular grids.

An introduction to efficiency and productivity analysis

The second edition of An Introduction to Efficiency and Productivity Analysis is designed to be a general introduction for those who wish to study efficiency and productivity analysis. The book provides an accessible, well-written introduction to the four principal methods involved: econometric estimation of average response models; index numbers, data envelopment analysis (DEA); and stochastic frontier analysis (SFA). For each method, a detailed introduction to the basic concepts is presented, numerical examples are provided, and some of the more important extensions to the basic methods are discussed. Of special interest is the systematic use of detailed empirical applications using real-world data throughout the book. In recent years, there have been a number of excellent advance-level books published on performance measurement. This book, however, is the first systematic survey of performance measurement with the express purpose of introducing the field to a wide audience of students, researchers, and practitioners. Indeed, the 2nd Edition maintains its uniqueness: (1) It is a well-written introduction to the field. (2) It outlines, discusses and compares the four principal methods for efficiency and productivity analysis in a well-motivated presentation. (3) It provides detailed advice on computer programs that can be used to implement these performance measurement methods. The book contains computer instructions and output listings for the SHAZAM, LIMDEP, TFPIP, DEAP and FRONTIER computer programs. More extensive listings of data and computer instruction files are available on the book's website: (www.uq.edu.au/economics/cepa/crob2005).

A PCR-based method of screening individuals of all ages, from neonates to the elderly, for familial hyperaldosteronism type I

Aim: Unless specifically treated (glucocorticoids in low doses), Familial Hyperaldosteronism Type I(FH-I) may result in early death from stroke. We report the successful application of a rapid, polymerase chain reaction (PCR)-based method of detecting the 'hybrid' 11 beta-hydroxylase (11 beta-OHase)/aldosterone synthase (AS) gene as a screening test for FH-I. Methods: 'Long-PCR' was used to amplify, concurrently, a 4 kb fragment of AS gene (both primers AS-specific) and a 4 kb fragment of the hybrid gene (5' primer 11 beta-OHase-specific, 3'primer AS-specific) from DNA extracted from blood either collected locally or transported from elsewhere. Sample collection and transport were straightforward. This 4 kb fragment contains all the currently recognised hybrid gene 'crossover' points. Results: Within a single family, long-PCR identified all 21 individuals known to have FH-I. Hypertension was corrected in all 11 treated with glucocorticoids. Nine with normal blood pressure are being closely followed for development of hypertension. Long-PCR cord blood analysis excluded FH-I in three neonates born to affected individuals. Long-PCR newly identified two other affected families: (1) a female (60 years) with a personal and family history of stroke and her normotensive daughter (40 years), and (2) a female (51 years) previously treated for primary aldosteronism with amiloride, her two hypertensive sons (14 and 16 years) and her hypertensive mother (78 years). No false negative or false positive results have yet been encountered. At least seven other centres have successfully performed this test. Conclusion: Long-PCR is a reliable method of screening individuals of all ages for FH-I.

Neuroleptic management of schizophrenia: A survey and commentary on Australian psychiatric practice

Objective: We seek to assess Australian psychiatrists' views and practices concerning provision of neuroleptic medication to patients with schizophrenia, and to determine whether such management strategies are likely to have changed over time and the extent to which they correspond to published treatment guidelines. Method: A sample of 139 psychiatrists based in three Australian capital cities was derived, with respondents completing a brief questionnaire by choosing from a limited-option answer set. Co-authors of this paper comment on the extent to which responses are in line with contemporary recommendations driven by experts or empirical studies. Results: Overall, survey findings indicate that there has been considerable change in clinical practice over the last decade and provide some estimate of the extent to which Australian management practices are congruent with contemporary recommendations. We identify a number of issues of concern (more in relation to dose levels of neuroleptic medication rather than treatment duration) revealed by survey data and make recommendations for addressing a number of practical clinical issues. Conclusions: As this report focuses on central issues involved in managing schizophrenia, and integrates a number of treatment guidelines, we suggest that it should be of assistance for practice review by clinicians.

Improved one-step solid-phase extraction method for morphine, morphine-3-glucuronide, and morphine-6-glucuronide from plasma and quantitation using high-performance liquid chromatography with electrochemical detection

This communication describes an improved one-step solid-phase extraction method for the recovery of morphine (M), morphine-3-glucuronide (M3G), and morphine-6-glucuronide (M6G) from human plasma with reduced coextraction of endogenous plasma constituents, compared to that of the authors' previously reported method. The magnitude of the peak caused by endogenous plasma components in the chromatogram that eluted immediately before the retention time of M3G has been reduced (similar to 80%) significantly (p < 0.01) while achieving high extraction efficiencies for the compounds of interest, viz morphine, M6G, and M3G (93.8 +/- 2.5, 91.7 +/- 1.7, and 93.1 +/- 2.2%, respectively). Furthermore, when the improved solid-phase extraction method was used, the extraction cartridge-derived late-eluting peak (retention time 90 to 100 minutes) reported in our previous method, was no longer present in the plasma extracts. Therefore the combined effect of reducing the recovery of the endogenous components of plasma that chromatographed just before the retention time of M3G and the removal of the late-eluting, extraction cartridge-derived peak has resulted in a decrease in the chromatographic run-time to 20 minutes, thereby increasing the sample throughput by up to 100%.

Ester prodrugs of a potent analgesic, morphine-6-sulfate: syntheses, spectroscopic and physicochemical properties

The aim of this work is to develop 3-acyl prodrugs of the potent analgesic morphine-6-sulfate (M6S). These are expected to have higher potency and/or exhibit longer duration of analgesic action than the parent compound. M6S and the prodrugs were synthesized, then purified either by recrystallization or by semi-preparative HPLC and the structures confirmed by mass spectrometry, IR spectrophotometry and by detailed 1- and 2-D NMR studies. The lipophilicities of the compounds were assessed by a combination of shake-flask, group contribution and HPLC retention methods. The octanol-buffer partition coefficient could only be obtained directly for 3-heptanoylmorphine-6-sulfate, using the shake-flask method. The partition coefficients (P) for the remaining prodrugs were estimated from known methylene group contributions. A good linear relationship between log P and the HPLC log capacity factors was demonstrated. Hydrolysis of the 3-acetyl prodrug, as a representative of the group, was found to occur relatively slowly in buffers (pH range 6.15-8.01), with a small buffer catalysis contribution. The rates of enzymatic hydrolysis of the 3-acyl group in 10% rat blood and in 10% rat brain homogenate were investigated. The prodrugs followed apparent first order hydrolysis kinetics, with a significantly faster hydrolysis rate found in 10% rat brain homogenate than in 10% rat blood for all compounds. (C) 1998 Elsevier Science B.V. All rights reserved.

Electrical impedance particle size method (Coulter Counter) detects the large fat globules in poorly homogenised UHT processed milk

The large fat globules that can be present in UHT milk due to inadequate homogenisation cause a cream layer to form that limits the shelf life of UHT milk. Four different particle size measurement techniques were used to measure the size of fat globules in poorly homogenised UHT milk processed in a UHT pilot plant. The thickness of the cream layer that formed during storage was negatively correlated with homogenisation pressure. It was positively correlated with the mass mean diameter and the percentage volume of particles between 1.5 and 2 mu m diameter, as determined by laser light scattering using the Malvern Mastersizer. Also, the thickness of the cream layer was positively correlated with the volume mode diameter and the percentage volume of particles between 1.5 and 2 mu m diameter, as determined by electrical impedance using the Coulter Counter. The cream layer thickness did not correlate significantly with the Coulter Counter measurements of volume mean diameter, or volume percentages of particles between 2 and 5 mu m or 5 and 10 mu m diameter. Spectroturbidimetry (Emulsion Quality Analyser) and light microscopy analyses were found to be unsuitable for assessing the size of the fat particles. This study suggests that the fat globule size distribution as determined by the electrical impedance method (Coulter Counter) is the most useful for determining the efficiency of homogenisation and therefore for predicting the stability of the fat emulsion in UHT milk during storage.

Speciation of arsenic metabolites in the urine of occupational workers and experimental rats using an optimised hydride cold-trapping method

A hydride cold-trapping technique was developed and optimised for the measurement of urinary arsenic metabolites. The analytical precision of the method was found to be 6.1, 4.0 and 4.8% (n = 5) for inorganic arsenic (As-i), monomethylarsonate (MMA) and dimethylarsinate (DMA), respectively, with recoveries close to 100%, The detection limits were 1.0, 1.3 and 3 ng for As-i, MMA and DMA, respectively. The method was then used to analyse urine samples obtained from three groups of workers for occupational exposure in three companies where copper chrome arsenate was used for timber treatment. The results were compared with those for a normal control group of laboratory workers. Arsenic and its metabolites were also measured in experimental rats given 5 mg As kg(-1) body mass by oral gavage in the form of sodium arsenite, calcium arsenite or sodium arsenate. Occupational workers showed a significantly higher excretion of As-i, Up to two fold increases of urinary As-i excretion in rats compared with control rats were also observed in animals dosed with various forms of arsenicals. The method is suitable for the measurement of arsenic metabolites in urine of both humans and experimental animals.