Two-sided learning in New Keynesian models: Dynamics, (lack of) convergence and the value of information

This paper investigates the role of learning by private agents and the central bank(two-sided learning) in a New Keynesian framework in which both sides of the economyhave asymmetric and imperfect knowledge about the true data generating process. Weassume that all agents employ the data that they observe (which may be distinct fordifferent sets of agents) to form beliefs about unknown aspects of the true model ofthe economy, use their beliefs to decide on actions, and revise these beliefs througha statistical learning algorithm as new information becomes available. We study theshort-run dynamics of our model and derive its policy recommendations, particularlywith respect to central bank communications. We demonstrate that two-sided learningcan generate substantial increases in volatility and persistence, and alter the behaviorof the variables in the model in a significant way. Our simulations do not convergeto a symmetric rational expectations equilibrium and we highlight one source thatinvalidates the convergence results of Marcet and Sargent (1989). Finally, we identifya novel aspect of central bank communication in models of learning: communicationcan be harmful if the central bank's model is substantially mis-specified.

Neoadjuvant and adjuvant strategies in renal cell carcinoma: more questions than answers.

The current standard treatment for early stage (I-III) renal cell cancer (RCC) is surgery. While the prognosis of stage I tumors is excellent, stage II and particularly stage III have a high risk of relapse. The adjuvant treatment of patients with RCC remains an area of investigation, with patient selection being a key aspect. There are currently two prognostic nomograms to establish the risk of relapse in patients with resected RCC. The results of earlier studies of adjuvant therapy, including the use chemotherapy and/or immunotherapy after nephrectomy have failed to show any benefit in the outcome of patients at risk of developing local recurrence or distant metastases. Two recent phase III trials with vaccines (autologous tumor cell vaccine and autologous tumor-derived heat shock protein peptide complex-96) have shown promising, albeit still preliminary, results. In the metastatic RCC setting, recent advances in the molecular understanding of oncogenic pathways have led to the development of new therapeutic strategies with the use of targeted therapies in the adjuvant setting. Neoadjuvant treatment is another treatment modality currently being evaluated for patients with early disease and in patients with metastatic RCC with inoperable primary tumors. The questions that remain unanswered include activity of these agents in early stages of the disease, patient selection, optimal start time of the adjuvant treatment, and finally, the optimal length of treatment.

Increased mobility of major histocompatibility complex I-peptide complexes decreases the sensitivity of antigen recognition.

CD8(+) cytotoxic T lymphocytes (CTL) can recognize and kill target cells expressing only a few cognate major histocompatibility complex (MHC) I-peptide complexes. This high sensitivity requires efficient scanning of a vast number of highly diverse MHC I-peptide complexes by the T cell receptor in the contact site of transient conjugates formed mainly by nonspecific interactions of ICAM-1 and LFA-1. Tracking of single H-2K(d) molecules loaded with fluorescent peptides on target cells and nascent conjugates with CTL showed dynamic transitions between states of free diffusion and immobility. The immobilizations were explained by association of MHC I-peptide complexes with ICAM-1 and strongly increased their local concentration in cell adhesion sites and hence their scanning by T cell receptor. In nascent immunological synapses cognate complexes became immobile, whereas noncognate ones diffused out again. Interfering with this mobility modulation-based concentration and sorting of MHC I-peptide complexes strongly impaired the sensitivity of antigen recognition by CTL, demonstrating that it constitutes a new basic aspect of antigen presentation by MHC I molecules.

Input chains and industrialization

A key aspect of industrialization is theadoption of increasing-returns-to-scale, industrial,technologies. Two other, well-documented aspects arethat industrial technologies are adopted throughoutintermediate-input chains and that they use intermediateinputs intensively relative to the technologies theyreplace. These features of industrial technologiescombined imply that countries with access to similartechnologies may have very different levels ofindustrialization and income, even if the degree ofincreasing returns to scale at the firm level is relativelysmall. Furthermore, a small improvement in theproductivity of industrial technologies can trigger full-scaleindustrialization and a large increase in income.

Single-metal deposition: optimization of this fingermark enhancement technique

Following the introduction of single-metal deposition (SMD), a simplified fingermark detection technique based on multimetal deposition, optimization studies were conducted. The different parameters of the original formula were tested and the results were evaluated based on the contrast and overall aspect of the enhanced fingermarks. The new formula for SMD was found based on the most optimized parameters. Interestingly, it was found that important variations from the base parameters did not significantly affect the outcome of the enhancement, thus demonstrating that SMD is a very robust technique. Finally, a comparison of the optimized SMD with multi-metal deposition (MMD) was carried out on different surfaces. It was demonstrated that SMD produces comparable results to MMD, thus validating the technique.

A dilution cost approach to financial intermediation and securities markets

This paper proposes a model of financial markets and corporate finance,with asymmetric information and no taxes, where equity issues, Bankdebt and Bond financing may all co-exist in equilibrium. The paperemphasizes the relationship Banking aspect of financial intermediation:firms turn to banks as a source of investment mainly because banks aregood at helping them through times of financial distress. The debtrestructuring service that banks may offer, however, is costly. Therefore,the firms which do not expect to be financially distressed prefer toobtain a cheaper market source of funding through bond or equity issues.This explains why bank lending and bond financing may co-exist inequilibrium. The reason why firms or banks also issue equity in our modelis simply to avoid bankruptcy. Banks have the additional motive that theyneed to satisfy minimum capital adequacy requeriments. Several types ofequilibria are possible, one of which has all the main characteristics ofa "credit crunch". This multiplicity implies that the channels of monetarypolicy may depend on the type of equilibrium that prevails, leadingsometimes to support a "credit view" and other times the classical "moneyview".

Multi-phase postmortem CT angiography: recognizing technique-related artefacts and pitfalls.

BACKGROUND AND PURPOSE: Multi-phase postmortem CT angiography (MPMCTA) is increasingly being recognized as a valuable adjunct medicolegal tool to explore the vascular system. Adequate interpretation, however, requires knowledge about the most common technique-related artefacts. The purpose of this study was to identify and index the possible artefacts related to MPMCTA. MATERIAL AND METHODS: An experienced radiologist blinded to all clinical and forensic data retrospectively reviewed 49 MPMCTAs. Each angiographic phase, i.e. arterial, venous and dynamic, was analysed separately to identify phase-specific artefacts based on location and aspect. RESULTS: Incomplete contrast filling of the cerebral venous system was the most commonly encountered artefact, followed by contrast agent layering in the lumen of the thoracic aorta. Enhancement or so-called oedematization of the digestive system mucosa was also frequently observed. CONCLUSION: All MPMCTA artefacts observed and described here are reproducible and easily identifiable. Knowledge about these artefacts is important to avoid misinterpreting them as pathological findings.

The structural nature of perceptual experiences

Intuitively, we think of perception as providing us with direct cognitive access to physical objects and their properties. But this common sense picture of perception becomes problematic when we notice that perception is not always veridical. In fact, reflection on illusions and hallucinations seems to indicate that perception cannot be what it intuitively appears to be. This clash between intuition and reflection is what generates the puzzle of perception. The task and enterprise of unravelling this puzzle took, and still takes, centre stage in the philosophy of perception. The goal of my dissertation is to make a contribution to this enterprise by formulating and defending a new structural approach to perception and perceptual consciousness. The argument for my structural approach is developed in several steps. Firstly, I develop an empirically inspired causal argument against naïve and direct realist conceptions of perceptual consciousness. Basically, the argument says that perception and hallucination can have the same proximal causes and must thus belong to the same mental kind. I emphasise that this insight gives us good reasons to abandon what we are instinctively driven to believe - namely that perception is directly about the outside physical world. The causal argument essentially highlights that the information that the subject acquires in perceiving a worldly object is always indirect. To put it another way, the argument shows that what we, as perceivers, are immediately aware of, is not an aspect of the world but an aspect of our sensory response to it. A view like this is traditionally known as a Representative Theory of Perception. As a second step, emphasis is put on the task of defending and promoting a new structural version of the Representative Theory of Perception; one that is immune to some major objections that have been standardly levelled at other Representative Theories of Perception. As part of this defence and promotion, I argue that it is only the structural features of perceptual experiences that are fit to represent the empirical world. This line of thought is backed up by a detailed study of the intriguing phenomenon of synaesthesia. More precisely, I concentrate on empirical cases of synaesthetic experiences and argue that some of them provide support for a structural approach to perception. The general picture that emerges in this dissertation is a new perspective on perceptual consciousness that is structural through and through.

Sleep, metabolism and aging

Aging is a multidimensional process of physical, psychological, and social changes. Understanding how we sleep and how this dynamic process evolves across life span will help to identify normal developmental aspects of sleep over time and to create strategies to increase awareness of sleep disturbances and their early management. In normal sleepers from HypnoLaus cohort, we evaluated the effects of age and gender on both subjective and objective sleep measurements. Our results indicate that normal aging is not accompanied by sleep complaints, and when they exist suggest the presence of underlying comorbidities. Polysomnographic data revealed that slow wave sleep was more affected with age in men, and age affected differently NREM and REM spectral power densities. Both sleep structure and spectral analysis profiles may constitute standards to delineate pathological changes in sleep, both for aging women and men. Another important aspect in the management of sleep and its disorders is a detailed characterization of sleep-inducing medications. Gamma-hydroxybutyrate (GHB) is an inhibitory neurotransmitter derivative of GABA, but its mode of action and the range of effects are not well understood. Several properties, as growth hormone stimulation in humans and the development of weight loss in treated patients suggest an unexplored metabolic effect. In different experiments we assessed the effects of acute, short term and chronic GHB administration on central (cerebral cortex) and peripheral (liver) biochemical processes involved in the metabolism of the drug, as well as the effects of the drug on metabolism in C57BL/6J, GABAB knock-out and obese (ob/ob) mice. We showed that GHB treatment affects weight gain in C57BL/6J and GABAB knock-out mice. Metabolomic analysis indicated large central and peripheral metabolic changes induced by GHB with important relevance to its therapeutic use. -- Le vieillissement est un processus multidimensionnel accompagné par de multiples changements dans les domaines physique, psychologique et social. Comprendre comment nous dormons et comment ce processus dynamique évolue sur la durée de vie nous aidera à identifier les aspects normaux du développement du sommeil au fil du temps, et à créer des stratégies pour accroître la connaissance et compréhension des troubles du sommeil et leur prise en charge précoce. Chez les sujets normaux de la cohorte HypnoLaus nous avons évalué les effets de l'âge et du sexe sur les mesures subjectives et objectives du sommeil. Nos résultats indiquent que le vieillissement normal ne s'accompagne pas de troubles du sommeil, et quand ils existent ceux-ci suggèrent la présence de comorbidités sous-jacentes. Les données polysomnographiques ont révélé que le sommeil profond était plus affecté avec l'âge chez les hommes. De plus, nous avons montré comment l'âge modifie la composition spectrale du sommeil lent et paradoxal. La structure du sommeil et les profils d'analyse spectrale peuvent donc constituer des standards permettant de définir les changements pathologiques du sommeil chez les personnes âgées. Parmi les aspects importants de la gestion du sommeil et de ses troubles, la caractérisation détaillée des médicaments hypnotiques utilisés est essentielle. L'acide gamma-hydroxybutyrique (GHB) est un acide gras à courte chaîne dérivé du GABA, principal neurotransmetteur inhibiteur du cerveau, mais son mode d'action et tous ses effets sont toujours largement méconnus. Plusieurs propriétés, comme la stimulation de la sécrétion de l'hormone de croissance chez l'homme et le développement d'une perte de poids chez les patients traités suggèrent un effet métabolique inexploré. Dans différentes expériences, nous avons évalué les effets d'une exposition aiguë, à court terme et chronique de GHB sur les processus biochimiques centraux (cortex cérébral) et périphériques (foie) impliqués dans le métabolisme du médicament. Nous avons aussi évalué les effets du médicament sur le métabolisme des souris C57BL/6J, GABAB KO et obèses (ob/ob). Nos résultats ont montré que le GHB diminue le gain de poids chez les souris C57BL/6J et GABAB KO. L'analyse métabolomique a indiqué des changements importants induits par GHB au niveau central et périphérique, et ces effets sont importants pour son utilisation thérapeutique.

Comportamentos de saúde e doença numa comunidade Cabo-Verdiana em Lisboa

O objetivo foi compreender como os indivíduos se comportam em termos de saúde e o que fazem em caso de doença. Análise comparativa realçou semelhanças e divergências de práticas de saúde ou em caso de doença. O estudo foi efetuado numa amostra de 40 cabo-verdianos da primeira geração residentes na região de Lisboa, dividida em subgrupos: grupo social, geração e genero. Baseou-se em metodologia qualitativa com entrevistas semi-estruturadas. As práticas analisadas foram agrupadas em preventivas e de saúde, práticas utilizadas em episódios de doença, recursos para prevenção e tratamento, utilização de remédios caseiros e outros recursos ou terapeutas. Indivíduos experimentaram, ao nível das práticas, três sistemas de saúde que coexistiam em Cabo Verde, oficial, popular e tradicional e o recurso à religião. O discurso acerca das práticas de saúde e de doença demonstrou existirem diferenças, em alguns aspectos, entre grupos sociais e entre generos e gerações. Práticas de saúde destes imigrantes são idênticas às dos portugueses em contextos socioeconomicos semelhantes. Resultados sugerem existência de diferenças entre grupos sociais relativamente às práticas, na esfera da saúde e da doença. Mais que cultura e etnicidade, que se moldam às condições materiais de existência, neste estudo, o nível socioeconomico determinou as maiores diferenças a interferir nas práticas de saúde e doença, de grupo com cultura de base comum. Em geral, os indivíduos sobrevalorizaram sua identidade étnica e cultura de origem. Pertencimento a grupos sociais diferentes dá origem a partilha do sentimento de pertença cultural, mas não a comportamentos e práticas idênticos.

Comportamentos de saúde e doença numa comunidade Cabo-Verdiana em Lisboa

This study aims at analysing, through personal reports, the way individuals behave in terms of health and illness. A comparative analysis of the collected data was performed, with the purpose of highlighting divergences in the health and illness practices. The study was undertaken with a sample of 40 «first generation» Cape Verdeans living in the Metropolitan area of Lisbon, divided into distinct groups: social (popular and elite), generation (younger and older) and gender (men and women). A qualitative methodology was employed, by conducting semi-structured interviews for the collection of information. The health and illness practices were grouped into preventive and health care practices, practices used in episodes of illness, resources used for prevention and treatment, use of home remedies, and other alternative resources. Individuals who are part of our study experimented, at the level of practices, with the three health systems that existed in Cape Verde, namely, the official, popular and traditional, and recourse to religion. The discourse analysis concerning health and disease practices showed there are differences, in some respects, between social groups. There were also slight differences between genders and generations. These immigrants’ health practices are identical to those of the Portuguese who are in similar socioeconomic contexts, with no significant effects of immigration itself on these practices. The analysis of the results confirms the existence of differences between social groups concerning the health and illness practices. They were more determined by the socioeconomic factors than by the cultural and ethnic aspects. Those differences also highlighted the existence of a unifying aspect, resulting from their cultural heritage. Although belonging to different social groups, the existence of a common culture and ethnic identity originates a shared feeling of cultural belonging, but not identical behaviours and practices.

A Gestão da Qualidade do Serviço Hoteleiro em Cabo Verde: Estruturação de Processos

O trabalho que aqui propomos foi desenvolvido numa perspectiva sociológica, procurando à luz da teoria de estruturação de Giddens analisar a estruturação de um serviço para a qualidade nos hotéis, partindo das perspectivas dos agentes internos. O que ambicionamos com esta tese é analisar a produção do serviço hoteleiro enquanto sistema constituída por práticas recíprocas entre agentes, sujeitos a regras, recursos, constrangimentos e oportunidades. Na óptica que seguimos, a estruturação para um serviço da qualidade depende das regras e recursos mobilizadas e permitidas no decorrer de práticas situadas de agentes intencionados. As estruturas do sistema da qualidade, como nós as entendemos aqui, à luz da dualidade da estrutura, reproduzem-se e participam na produção de novas estruturas e, recursivamente, organizam as práticas e os modos de fazer. Através da significação, legitimação e dominação, dimensões nas quais se desenvolvem os processos sociais de construção dos sistemas da qualidade, procuramos compreender o processo de estruturação de um serviço de qualidade nos hotéis. É com este olhar, que analisamos a estruturação da qualidade nas organizações. Mais do que o aspecto da qualidade enquanto disciplina da gestão, interessa-nos o aspecto da qualidade enquanto resultado de definições sociais construídas e partilhadas através das práticas quotidianas, onde se dá a negociação de significados e atribuição de sentidos às nossas actividades. Interessa-nos analisar a estruturação de um serviço para a qualidade, numa organização, através do estudo das práticas, rotinas, processos, expedientes e racionalidades na relação diária entre os agentes no seio dos hotéis. Analisamos o sistema da qualidade enquanto sistema social envolvendo actividades de sujeitos humanos, localizados no espaço e no tempo (Giddens, 2000). Através da dualidade da estrutura, em que os agentes são possuidores de regras e recursos que durante e através das suas actividades reproduzem e criam as condições para tornarem as mesmas possíveis (Giddens, 1999), procuramos entender a prestação dos serviços. Desta forma analisamos o funcionamento das interacções diárias e das suas regras enquanto meio e produto do sistema da qualidade.

Capital formation in machinery in Latin America, 1890-1930

Investment in machinery is a key aspect in the analysis of long-term economic growth during the era of the spread of industrialisation. But, historiography has only revealed what the pace of capital accumulation was in a few Latin American economies. This article offers continuous (annual) and consistent series on the magnitude of this investment in all of the Latin American countries for the period at the height of the first globalisation, 1890-1930. The paper gives special attention to comparative analysis, showing the differences that exist at the heart of the Latin American community, in the levels of capital formation in machinery as well as in the national development of this over time. The differences in the levels appear very indicative of the unequal degree of development reached by these economies. This article puts to test the hypothesis of intraregional divergence, obtaining the tentative result that there was divergence until 1913, but that there was convergence from 1914-1930.

Cooperação Portugal-PALOP no Domínio da Comunicação Social

The paper examines the cooperation between Portugal and the African Portuguese Speaking Countries (APSC: Angola, Cabo Verbe, Guinea-Bissau, Mozambique and S. Tomé and Príncipe) in media-relevant fields. It starts off with an outlook into cooperation activities undertaken by various countries in the APSC in such a field and assesses those initiatives in terms of linguistic and cultural significance. Next, I review the Portuguese institutional framework and the legal instruments for this kind of cooperation. The central aspect of the paper is a critical analysis of measures and projects related to training of journalists and other media professionals. The goal is to identify sensitive aspects and difficulties. I conclude with a global assessment of the Portuguese cooperation in the field of media and advance some suggestions for improvement.

The small species of Belostoma Latreille (Heteroptera, Belostomatidae). III. A revision of oxyurum group, with a new species from Brazil and description of the male of B. noualhieri Montandon

Species of the oxyurum group (sensu Lauck) consist of five extant Neotropical small species, whose lengths range 15.0 to 20.0 mm. The anterior interocular width about 1.5 times the width of an eye and ventral diverticulum of phallus flattened, circular, and large are, in combination, diagnostic. The small species of the oxyurum group were included in the Lauck´s key to the identification of the species groups, without dealing with the species included in it because many of them are very similar in appearance. Therefore here we redescribe and key the Belostoma species of the oxyurum group. Belostoma oxyurum (Dufour) is newly recorded from Brazil (Paraná and Rio Grande do Sul). Holotype and lectotype are designated for B. oxyurum and B. sanctulum Montandon, respectively. The aspect of the prosternal keel, the ratio between the width of the ventral diverticulum of phallus and its length in ventral view, and the aspect of dorsal arms of ventral diverticulum have proven useful for better species delimitation. Based on specimens from Pará State (N. Brazil), Belostoma carajaensis Ribeiro & Estévez, sp. nov. is described and illustrated. This new species differs from B. sanctulum in having anteoculus shorter than interoculus and the dorsal arms of ventral diverticulum divergent and large. A male specimen of B. noualhieri Montandon was collected in São Paulo State and based mainly on features of male genitalia, this species is here also included under oxyurum group.