Optimal Test for Parameter Instability When the Unstable Process and the Error Distribution are Unknown

This paper proposes asymptotically optimal tests for unstable parameter process under the feasible circumstance that the researcher has little information about the unstable parameter process and the error distribution, and suggests conditions under which the knowledge of those processes does not provide asymptotic power gains. I first derive a test under known error distribution, which is asymptotically equivalent to LR tests for correctly identified unstable parameter processes under suitable conditions. The conditions are weak enough to cover a wide range of unstable processes such as various types of structural breaks and time varying parameter processes. The test is then extended to semiparametric models in which the underlying distribution in unknown but treated as unknown infinite dimensional nuisance parameter. The semiparametric test is adaptive in the sense that its asymptotic power function is equivalent to the power envelope under known error distribution.

Optimal, minimax, and Bayesian two-stage designs in two-dose phase II clinical trials

Background: For most cytotoxic and biologic anti-cancer agents, the response rate of the drug is commonly assumed to be non-decreasing with an increasing dose. However, an increasing dose does not always result in an appreciable increase in the response rate. This may especially be true at high doses for a biologic agent. Therefore, in a phase II trial the investigators may be interested in testing the anti-tumor activity of a drug at more than one (often two) doses, instead of only at the maximum tolerated dose (MTD). This way, when the lower dose appears equally effective, this dose can be recommended for further confirmatory testing in a phase III trial under potential long-term toxicity and cost considerations. A common approach to designing such a phase II trial has been to use an independent (e.g., Simon's two-stage) design at each dose ignoring the prior knowledge about the ordering of the response probabilities at the different doses. However, failure to account for this ordering constraint in estimating the response probabilities may result in an inefficient design. In this dissertation, we developed extensions of Simon's optimal and minimax two-stage designs, including both frequentist and Bayesian methods, for two doses that assume ordered response rates between doses. ^ Methods: Optimal and minimax two-stage designs are proposed for phase II clinical trials in settings where the true response rates at two dose levels are ordered. We borrow strength between doses using isotonic regression and control the joint and/or marginal error probabilities. Bayesian two-stage designs are also proposed under a stochastic ordering constraint. ^ Results: Compared to Simon's designs, when controlling the power and type I error at the same levels, the proposed frequentist and Bayesian designs reduce the maximum and expected sample sizes. Most of the proposed designs also increase the probability of early termination when the true response rates are poor. ^ Conclusion: Proposed frequentist and Bayesian designs are superior to Simon's designs in terms of operating characteristics (expected sample size and probability of early termination, when the response rates are poor) Thus, the proposed designs lead to more cost-efficient and ethical trials, and may consequently improve and expedite the drug discovery process. The proposed designs may be extended to designs of multiple group trials and drug combination trials.^

Heat flow measurements on METEOR cruise M86/5

Mud volcanoes (MV) are sources of mass and energy, transported from deeper levels of the sediment pile to the surface. Together with fluid and gas, thermal energy is emitted through these structures. Therefore heat flow determination is a sensible tool to detect and quantify the amount of convective flow. In the Gulf of Cadiz several mud volcanoes can be found along major tectonic lines (SWIM faults). We employ geothermal measurements to observe the activity of mud volcanoes and possible leakage at the faults apart from pronounced structures.

The experience of flow in adolescence : Its relationship with personality traits and age

The aim of this study is to assess the experience of flow and its relationship with the personality traits and the age of the adolescents. For this purpose, 224 participants of both sexes were selected, aged 12-20 years, who were examined with various tools: Flow State in adolescents (Leibovich de Figueroa; Schmidt, 2013). This is a self-report technique of 28 items that assesses the Flow State, covering all the aspects theoretically listed as components in the optimal experience of enjoyment. And a self-report Being a teenager nowadays, which evaluates 33 pairs of opposite personality characteristics that represent the personality domains of the NEO-PI-R (Costa; McCrae, 1992. Costa; McCrae, 2005, Leibovich; Schmidt, 2005). Among the found results, it was observed that in the adolescents with high scores on the scale of Flow State, the main personality trait was extroversion. Also, the influence of age on optimal flow experience appears in the chosen activities

The experience of flow in adolescence : Its relationship with personality traits and age

The aim of this study is to assess the experience of flow and its relationship with the personality traits and the age of the adolescents. For this purpose, 224 participants of both sexes were selected, aged 12-20 years, who were examined with various tools: Flow State in adolescents (Leibovich de Figueroa; Schmidt, 2013). This is a self-report technique of 28 items that assesses the Flow State, covering all the aspects theoretically listed as components in the optimal experience of enjoyment. And a self-report Being a teenager nowadays, which evaluates 33 pairs of opposite personality characteristics that represent the personality domains of the NEO-PI-R (Costa; McCrae, 1992. Costa; McCrae, 2005, Leibovich; Schmidt, 2005). Among the found results, it was observed that in the adolescents with high scores on the scale of Flow State, the main personality trait was extroversion. Also, the influence of age on optimal flow experience appears in the chosen activities

The experience of flow in adolescence : Its relationship with personality traits and age

The aim of this study is to assess the experience of flow and its relationship with the personality traits and the age of the adolescents. For this purpose, 224 participants of both sexes were selected, aged 12-20 years, who were examined with various tools: Flow State in adolescents (Leibovich de Figueroa; Schmidt, 2013). This is a self-report technique of 28 items that assesses the Flow State, covering all the aspects theoretically listed as components in the optimal experience of enjoyment. And a self-report Being a teenager nowadays, which evaluates 33 pairs of opposite personality characteristics that represent the personality domains of the NEO-PI-R (Costa; McCrae, 1992. Costa; McCrae, 2005, Leibovich; Schmidt, 2005). Among the found results, it was observed that in the adolescents with high scores on the scale of Flow State, the main personality trait was extroversion. Also, the influence of age on optimal flow experience appears in the chosen activities

Strontium concentrations and isotopic compositions of anhydrites from the TAG active mound

Sr isotope analyses have been conducted on anhydrite samples from the TAG (Trans-Atlantic Geotraverse) active hydrothermal mound (26°08?N, Mid-Atlantic Ridge) that have previously been shown to exhibit two distinct patterns of REE behavior when normalized to TAG end-member hydrothermal fluid. Despite differences in REE patterns, the Sr isotope data indicate that all the anhydrites precipitated from fluids with a similar range of hydrothermal fluid and seawater components, and all but one were seawater-dominated (52%-75%). Speciation calculations using the EQ3/6 software package for geochemical modeling of aqueous systems suggest that the REE complexation behavior in different fluid mixing scenarios can explain the variations in the REE patterns. Anhydrites that exhibit relatively flat REE patterns [(La_bs)/(Yb_bs) = 0.8-2.0; subscript bs indicates normalization to end-member black smoker hydrothermal fluid] and a small or no Eu anomaly [(Eu_bs)/(Eu*_bs) = 0.8-2.0] are inferred to have precipitated from mixes of end-member hydrothermal fluid and cold seawater. REE complexes with hard ligands (e.g., fluoride and chloride) are less stable at low temperatures and trivalent Eu has an ionic radius similar to that of Ca2+ and the other REE, and so they behave coherently. In contrast, anhydrites that exhibit slight LREE-depletion [(La_bs)/(Yb_bs) = 0.4-1.4] and a distinct negative anomaly [(Eu_bs)/(Eu*_bs) = 0.2-0.8] are inferred to have precipitated from mixes of end-member hydrothermal fluid and conductively heated seawater. The LREE depletion results from the presence of very stable LREE chloro-complexes that effectively limit the availability of the LREE for partitioning into anhydrite. Above 250°C, Eu is present only in divalent form as chloride complexes, and discrimination against Eu2+ is likely due to both the mismatch in ionic radii between Eu2+ and Ca2+, and the strong chloro-complexation of divalent Eu which promotes stability in the fluid and inhibits partitioning of Eu2+ into precipitating anhydrite. These variations in REE behavior attest to rapid fluctuations in thermal regime, fluid flow and mixing in the subsurface of the TAG mound that give rise to heterogeneity in the formation conditions of individual anhydrite crystals.

Flow rates, hydraulic conductivities and permeabilities of sediments from ODP Holes 190-1173A and 190-1174B

Understanding the role of fluids in active accretionary prisms requires quantitative knowledge of parameters such as permeability. We report here the results of permeability tests on four samples from Ocean Drilling Program Leg 190 at the Nankai Trough accretionary prism-two from Site 1173 and two from Site 1174. Volcanic ash is present in one of the samples; otherwise, the material is hemipelagic mud. A constant-rate-of-flow technique was used at various effective pressures and rates of flow. The permeability of the four samples ranges between 10**-15 and 10**-18 m**2, with the ash-bearing sample showing the highest values.

Contiunous surface water uncorrected and quench-corrected active fluorescence and derived chlorophyll a concentration using calibration by HPLC pigments during POLARSTERN cruise ANT-XXV/1

The relationship between phytoplankton assemblages and the associated optical properties of the water body is important for the further development of algorithms for large-scale remote sensing of phytoplankton biomass and the identification of phytoplankton functional types (PFTs), which are often representative for different biogeochemical export scenarios. Optical in-situ measurements aid in the identification of phytoplankton groups with differing pigment compositions and are widely used to validate remote sensing data. In this study we present results from an interdisciplinary cruise aboard the RV Polarstern along a north-to-south transect in the eastern Atlantic Ocean in November 2008. Phytoplankton community composition was identified using a broad set of in-situ measurements. Water samples from the surface and the depth of maximum chlorophyll concentration were analyzed by high performance liquid chromatography (HPLC), flow cytometry, spectrophotometry and microscopy. Simultaneously, the above- and underwater light field was measured by a set of high spectral resolution (hyperspectral) radiometers. An unsupervised cluster algorithm applied to the measured parameters allowed us to define bio-optical provinces, which we compared to ecological provinces proposed elsewhere in the literature. As could be expected, picophytoplankton was responsible for most of the variability of PFTs in the eastern Atlantic Ocean. Our bio-optical clusters agreed well with established provinces and thus can be used to classify areas of similar biogeography. This method has the potential to become an automated approach where satellite data could be used to identify shifting boundaries of established ecological provinces or to track exceptions from the rule to improve our understanding of the biogeochemical cycles in the ocean.