Introducción a la Estadística con R

Generalmente, los estudiantes de bachillerato y universitarios tienen dificultades para comprender los conceptos más elementales de probabilidad y estadística. La presentación de conceptos abstractos de una forma visual y dinámica puede ayudar a comprenderlos mejor. La simulación de experimentos aleatorios ayudará a conseguirlo. Presentamos a continuación algunas de las actividades preparadas para ello.

Implementación del análisis en componentes principales con el software estadístico R

El Análisis en Componentes Principales (ACP) constituye la técnica base para el Análisis Multivariado de Datos. Su objetivo principal es reducir la cantidad de variables, manteniendo la máxima cantidad de información, presente en una tabla de datos de variables cuantitativas. En el presente artículo se expone un panorama general sobre la estructura que fundamenta un ACP y se implementa un caso concreto en el software estadístico R. Para ello es necesario un conocimiento básico de este software.

The Exodus evacuation model applied to building evacuation scenarios

The purpose of this paper is to demonstrate the potential of the EXODUS evacuation model in building environments. The latest PC/workstation version of EXODUS is described and is also applied to a large hypothetical supermarket/restaurant complex measuring 50 m x 40 m. A range of scenarios is presented where population characteristics (such as size, individual travel speeds, and individual response times), and enclosure configuration characteristics (such as number of exits, size of exits, and opening times of exits) are varied. The results demonstrate a wide range of occupant behavior including overtaking, queuing, redirection, and conflict avoidance. Evacuation performance is measured by a number of model predicted parameters including individual exit flow rates, overall evacuation flow rates, total evacuation time, average evacuation time per occupant, average travel distance, and average wait time. The simulations highlight the profound impact that variations in individual travel speeds and occupant response times have in determining the overall evacuation performance. 1. Jin, T., and Yamada T., "Experimental Study of Human Behavior in Smoke Filled Corridors," Proceedings of The Second International Symposium on Fire Safety Science, 1988, pp. 511-519. 2. Galea, E.R., and Galparsoro, J.M.P., "EXODUS: An Evacuation Model for Mass Transport Vehicles," UK CAA Paper 93006 ISBN 086039 543X, CAA London, 1993. 3. Galea, E.R., and Galparsoro, J.M.P., "A Computer Based Simulation Model for the Prediction of Evacuation from Mass Transport Vehicles," Fire Safety Journal, Vol. 22, 1994, pp. 341-366. 4. Galea, E.R., Owen, M., and Lawrence, P., "Computer Modeling of Human Be havior in Aircraft Fire Accidents," to appear in the Proceedings of Combus tion Toxicology Symposium, CAMI, Oklahoma City, OK, 1995. 5. Kisko, T.M. and Francis, R.L., "EVACNET+: A Computer Program to Determine Optimal Building Evacuation Plans," Fire Safety Journal, Vol. 9, 1985, pp. 211-220. 6. Levin, B., "EXITT, A Simulation Model of Occupant Decisions and Actions in Residential Fires," Proceedings of The Second International Symposium on Fire Safety Science, 1988, pp. 561-570. 7. Fahy, R.F., "EXIT89: An Evacuation Model for High-Rise Buildings," Pro ceedings of The Third International Sym posium on Fire Safety Science, 1991, pp. 815-823. 8. Thompson, P.A., and Marchant, E.W., "A Computer Model for the Evacuation of Large Building Populations," Fire Safety Journal, Vol. 24, 1995, pp. 131-148. 9. Still, K., "New Computer System Can Predict Human Behavior Response to Building Fires," FIRE 84, 1993, pp. 40-41. 10. Ketchell, N., Cole, S.S., Webber, D.M., et.al., "The Egress Code for Human Move ment and Behavior in Emergency Evacu ations," Engineering for Crowd Safety (Smith, R.A., and Dickie, J.F., Eds.), Elsevier, 1993, pp. 361-370. 11. Takahashi, K., Tanaka, T. and Kose, S., "An Evacuation Model for Use in Fire Safety Design of Buildings," Proceedings of The Second International Symposium on Fire Safety Science, 1988, pp. 551- 560. 12. G2 Reference Manual, Version 3.0, Gensym Corporation, Cambridge, MA. 13. XVT Reference Manual, Version 3.0 XVT Software Inc., Boulder, CO. 14. Galea, E.R., "On the Field Modeling Approach to the Simulation of Enclosure Fires, Journal of Fire Protection Engineering, Vol. 1, No. 1, 1989, pp. 11-22. 15. Purser, D.A., "Toxicity Assessment of Combustion Products," SFPE Handbook of Fire Protection Engineering, National Fire Protection Association, Quincy, MA, pp. 1-200 - 1-245, 1988. 16. Hankin, B.D., and Wright, R.A., "Pas senger Flows in Subways," Operational Research Quarterly, Vol. 9, 1958, pp. 81-88. 17. HMSO, The Building Regulations 1991 - Approved Document B, section B 1 (1992 edition), HMSO publications, London, pp. 9-40. 18. Polus A., Schofer, J.L., and Ushpiz, A., "Pedestrian Flow and Level of Service," Journal of Transportation Engineering, Vol. 109, 1983, pp. 46-47. 19. Muir, H., Marrison, C., and Evans, A., "Aircraft Evacuations: the Effect of Passenger Motivation and Cabin Con figuration Adjacent to the Exit," CAA Paper 89019, ISBN 0 86039 406 9, 1989. 20. Muir, H., Private communication to appear as a CAA report, 1996.

[1H,15N] N.M.R. Kinetic Studies of Reactions of cis- and trans-[PtCl2(15NH3)(c-C6H1115NH2)] with Guanosine 5'-Monophosphate

cis-[PtCl2(15NH3)(c-C6H11NH2)] is an active metabolite of the oral platinum(IV) anticancer drug cis,trans,cis-[PtCl2(CH3CO2)2(NH2)(c-C6H11NH2)]. Since it is likely that guanine bases on DNA are targets for this drug, we have analysed the kinetics of reaction of this platinum(II) metabolite with guanosine 5′-monophosphate (5′-GMP) at 310 K, pH 7, using [1H, 15N] n.m.r. methods. Reactions of the trans isomer are reported for comparison. The reactions proceed via aquated intermediates, and, for the cis isomer, the rates of aquation and substitution of H2O by 5′-GMP are 2-5 times faster trans to the amine ligand (c-C6H11NH2) compared to trans to NH3 for both the first and second steps. For the trans complex, the first aquation step is c. 3 times faster than for the cis complex, as expected from the higher trans influence of Cl¯, whereas the rate of the second aquation step (trans to N7 of 5′-GMP) is comparable to that trans to NH3. These findings have implications for the courses of reactions with DNA.

Letter from Wilfred T. Grenfell Esq., M.R.C.S.

An account of of the 1892(?) voyage from Yarmouth to St John's, Newfoundland, Canada.

Marine biodiversity and climate change: assessing and predicting the influence of climatic change using intertidal rocky shore biota. Occasional Publication of the Marine Biological Association 20

In the last 60 years climate change has altered the distribution and abundance of many seashore species. Below is a summary of the findings of this project. The MarClim project was a four year multi-partner funded project created to investigate the effects of climatic warming on marine biodiversity. In particular the project aimed to use intertidal species, whose abundances had been shown to fluctuate with changes in climatic conditions, as indicator species of likely responses of species not only on rocky shores, but also those found offshore. The project used historic time series data, from in some cases the 1950s onwards, and contemporary data collected as part of the MarClim project (2001-2005), to provide evidence of changes in the abundance, range and population structure of intertidal species and relate these changes to recent rapid climatic warming. In particular quantitative counts of barnacles, limpets and trochids were made as well as semi-quantitative surveys of up to 56 intertidal taxa.Historic and contemporary data informed experiments to understand the mechanisms behind these changes and models to predict future species ranges and abundances.