ERP Systems as Investments: Analysing Costs vs. Benefits

An ERP system investment analysis method using a Fuzzy Pay-Off approach for Real Option valuation is examined. It is studied, how the investment can be incrementally adopted and analyzed as a compounding Real Option model. The modeling allows follow-up. IS system development model COCOMO is presented as an example for investment analysis. The thesis presents the usage of Real Options as an alternative for the valuation of an investment. An idea is presented to use a continuous investment follow-up during the investment. This analysis can be performed using Real Options. As a tool for the analysis, the Fuzzy Pay-Off method is presented as an alternative for investment valuation.

Wind Turbine Direct-Drive Permanent-Magnet Generator with Direct Liquid Cooling for Mass Reduction

Today’s electrical machine technology allows increasing the wind turbine output power by an order of magnitude from the technology that existed only ten years ago. However, it is sometimes argued that high-power direct-drive wind turbine generators will prove to be of limited practical importance because of their relatively large size and weight. The limited space for the generator in a wind turbine application together with the growing use of wind energy pose a challenge for the design engineers who are trying to increase torque without making the generator larger. When it comes to high torque density, the limiting factor in every electrical machine is heat, and if the electrical machine parts exceed their maximum allowable continuous operating temperature, even for a short time, they can suffer permanent damage. Therefore, highly efficient thermal design or cooling methods is needed. One of the promising solutions to enhance heat transfer performances of high-power, low-speed electrical machines is the direct cooling of the windings. This doctoral dissertation proposes a rotor-surface-magnet synchronous generator with a fractional slot nonoverlapping stator winding made of hollow conductors, through which liquid coolant can be passed directly during the application of current in order to increase the convective heat transfer capabilities and reduce the generator mass. This doctoral dissertation focuses on the electromagnetic design of a liquid-cooled direct-drive permanent-magnet synchronous generator (LC DD-PMSG) for a directdrive wind turbine application. The analytical calculation of the magnetic field distribution is carried out with the ambition of fast and accurate predicting of the main dimensions of the machine and especially the thickness of the permanent magnets; the generator electromagnetic parameters as well as the design optimization. The focus is on the generator design with a fractional slot non-overlapping winding placed into open stator slots. This is an a priori selection to guarantee easy manufacturing of the LC winding. A thermal analysis of the LC DD-PMSG based on a lumped parameter thermal model takes place with the ambition of evaluating the generator thermal performance. The thermal model was adapted to take into account the uneven copper loss distribution resulting from the skin effect as well as the effect of temperature on the copper winding resistance and the thermophysical properties of the coolant. The developed lumpedparameter thermal model and the analytical calculation of the magnetic field distribution can both be integrated with the presented algorithm to optimize an LC DD-PMSG design. Based on an instrumented small prototype with liquid-cooled tooth-coils, the following targets have been achieved: experimental determination of the performance of the direct liquid cooling of the stator winding and validating the temperatures predicted by an analytical thermal model; proving the feasibility of manufacturing the liquid-cooled tooth-coil winding; moreover, demonstration of the objectives of the project to potential customers.

Forecasting of wind speeds and directions with artificial neural networks

In this master’s thesis, wind speeds and directions were modeled with the aim of developing suitable models for hourly, daily, weekly and monthly forecasting. Artificial Neural Networks implemented in MATLAB software were used to perform the forecasts. Three main types of artificial neural network were built, namely: Feed forward neural networks, Jordan Elman neural networks and Cascade forward neural networks. Four sub models of each of these neural networks were also built, corresponding to the four forecast horizons, for both wind speeds and directions. A single neural network topology was used for each of the forecast horizons, regardless of the model type. All the models were then trained with real data of wind speeds and directions collected over a period of two years in the municipal region of Puumala in Finland. Only 70% of the data was used for training, validation and testing of the models, while the second last 15% of the data was presented to the trained models for verification. The model outputs were then compared to the last 15% of the original data, by measuring the mean square errors and sum square errors between them. Based on the results, the feed forward networks returned the lowest generalization errors for hourly, weekly and monthly forecasts of wind speeds; Jordan Elman networks returned the lowest errors when used for forecasting of daily wind speeds. Cascade forward networks gave the lowest errors when used for forecasting daily, weekly and monthly wind directions; Jordan Elman networks returned the lowest errors when used for hourly forecasting. The errors were relatively low during training of the models, but shot up upon simulation with new inputs. In addition, a combination of hyperbolic tangent transfer functions for both hidden and output layers returned better results compared to other combinations of transfer functions. In general, wind speeds were more predictable as compared to wind directions, opening up opportunities for further research into building better models for wind direction forecasting.

Simulation of wind powered hydraulic heating system

The objective of this master’s thesis was to design and simulate a wind powered hydraulic heating system that can operate independently in remote places where the use of electricity is not possible. Components for the system were to be selected in such a way that the conditions for manufacture, use and economic viability are the as good as possible. Savonius rotor was chosen for wind turbine, due to its low cut in speed and robust design. Savonius rotor produces kinetic energy in wide wind speed range and it can withstand high wind gusts. Radial piston pump was chosen for the flow source of the hydraulic heater. Pump type was selected due to its characteristics in low rotation speeds and high efficiency. Volume flow from the pump is passed through the throttle orifice. Pressure drop over the orifice causes the hydraulic oil to heat up and, thus, creating thermal energy. Thermal energy in the oil is led to radiator where it conducts heat to the environment. The hydraulic heating system was simulated. For this purpose a mathematical models of chosen components were created. In simulation wind data gathered by Finnish meteorological institute for 167 hours was used as input. The highest produced power was achieved by changing the orifice diameter so that the rotor tip speed ratio follows the power curve. This is not possible to achieve without using electricity. Thus, for the orifice diameter only one, the optimal value was defined. Results from the simulation were compared with investment calculations. Different parameters effecting the investment profitability were altered in sensitivity analyses in order to define the points of investment profitability. Investment was found to be profitable only with high average wind speeds.

Analyzing the Effects of the New Renewable Energy Policy in Russia on Investments into Wind, Solar and Small Hydro Power

This thesis presents an analysis of recently enacted Russian renewable energy policy based on capacity mechanism. Considering its novelty and poor coverage by academic literature, the aim of the thesis is to analyze capacity mechanism influence on investors’ decision-making process. The current research introduces a number of approaches to investment analysis. Firstly, classical financial model was built with Microsoft Excel® and crisp efficiency indicators such as net present value were determined. Secondly, sensitivity analysis was performed to understand different factors influence on project profitability. Thirdly, Datar-Mathews method was applied that by means of Monte Carlo simulation realized with Matlab Simulink®, disclosed all possible outcomes of investment project and enabled real option thinking. Fourthly, previous analysis was duplicated by fuzzy pay-off method with Microsoft Excel®. Finally, decision-making process under capacity mechanism was illustrated with decision tree. Capacity remuneration paid within 15 years is calculated individually for each RE project as variable annuity that guarantees a particular return on investment adjusted on changes in national interest rates. Analysis results indicate that capacity mechanism creates a real option to invest in renewable energy project by ensuring project profitability regardless of market conditions if project-internal factors are managed properly. The latter includes keeping capital expenditures within set limits, production performance higher than 75% of target indicators, and fulfilling localization requirement, implying producing equipment and services within the country. Occurrence of real option shapes decision-making process in the following way. Initially, investor should define appropriate location for a planned power plant where high production performance can be achieved, and lock in this location in case of competition. After, investor should wait until capital cost limit and localization requirement can be met, after that decision to invest can be made without any risk to project profitability. With respect to technology kind, investment into solar PV power plant is more attractive than into wind or small hydro power, since it has higher weighted net present value and lower standard deviation. However, it does not change decision-making strategy that remains the same for each technology type. Fuzzy pay-method proved its ability to disclose the same patterns of information as Monte Carlo simulation. Being effective in investment analysis under uncertainty and easy in use, it can be recommended as sufficient analytical tool to investors and researchers. Apart from described results, this thesis contributes to the academic literature by detailed description of capacity price calculation for renewable energy that was not available in English before. With respect to methodology novelty, such advanced approaches as Datar-Mathews method and fuzzy pay-off method are applied on the top of investment profitability model that incorporates capacity remuneration calculation as well. Comparison of effects of two different RE supporting schemes, namely Russian capacity mechanism and feed-in premium, contributes to policy comparative studies and exhibits useful inferences for researchers and policymakers. Limitations of this research are simplification of assumptions to country-average level that restricts our ability to analyze renewable energy investment region wise and existing limitation of the studying policy to the wholesale power market that leaves retail markets and remote areas without our attention, taking away medium and small investment into renewable energy from the research focus. Elimination of these limitations would allow creating the full picture of Russian renewable energy investment profile.

Naudanlanta biokaasulaitosraaka-aineena, käsittely ja logistiikka

Maatalouden lietelannasta saatavien ravinteiden talteenotto ja kierrätys ovat viime aikoina nousseet yhä tärkeämmäksi tavoitteeksi. Ravinteiden tehokas kierrätystapa saadaan ai-kaiseksi käsittelemällä lietelantaa. Lannan käsittelyketjuja on monenlaisia; tässä työssä naudan lannan käsittelyketju muodostuu separoinnista ja mädätyksestä. Tämän diplomityön tarkoituksena oli selvittää naudan lannan mekaanisen separoinnin ja logistiikan kannattavuus märkämädätys- ja kuivamädätyskäsittelyketjussa. Käsittelyketju-jen kannattavuus tai kannattamattomuus on esitetty eri skenaarioissa muodostettujen kus-tannuslaskentojen perusteella. Skenaarioiden kustannuslaskelmat ovat toisiinsa verratta-vissa, jolloin ne voidaan asettaa niin ikään paremmuusjärjestykseen. Viides skenaario ei ole suoraan verrattavissa muihin skenaarioihin, koska siinä lannankäsittelyketjua on tar-kasteltu eri näkökulmasta, keskittämällä suurimmalle maatilalle. Mekaanisista separaattoreista tarkasteltiin työssä ruuvipuristinta, dekantterilinkoa ja ul-koistettua separointipalvelua. Lannan logistiikkakustannuksissa huomioitiin lannan kulje-tusta traktori- ja säiliöautolla tai traktorilla. Separoinnin kustannus liitettiin osaksi logis-tiikkakustannusta. Työn tuloksien perusteella voidaan todeta dekantterilingon separointi-kustannuksen olevan taloudellisesti kannattamattomin johtuen pienestä lantakapasiteetista ja separaattorin korkeasta investointihinnasta. Ravinteiden osalta linko osoittautui tehok-kaimmaksi menetelmäksi erottamaan ravinteet eri jakeisiin. Lannan käsittely separointipalvelulla oli edullisin skenaario, jonka vuosittaiseksi kustan-nukseksi saatiin säiliö- ja kuorma-autolla lantaa kuljetettaessa 58 700 € ja traktorilla kul-jetettaessa 60 400 €. Kallein lannan käsittely oli dekantterilingolla, jonka vuosittaiseksi kustannukseksi saatiin lantaa säiliö- ja kuorma-autolla kuljetettaessa 121 000 € ja trakto-rilla kuljetettaessa 123 300 €. Lannan separointi maatilalla osoittautui kannattavammaksi kuin käsittelemättömän lietteen kuljetus biokaasulaitokselle.

Ydinvoiman säädettävyys laajamittaisesti sähköä varastoivassa energiajärjestelmässä

Tulevaisuudessa tuuli- ja aurinkovoiman osuus sähköntuotannosta tulee kasvamaan. Näiden uusiutuvien energiamuotojen tuotanto kuitenkin vaihtelee sääolosuhteiden mukaan. Tästä johtuen tarvitaan lisää säätövoimaa, jotta voidaan vastata sähkönkulutukseen tuuli- ja aurinkosähkön tuotannon laskiessa. Tässä työssä tarkastellaan mahdollisuutta toteuttaa sähkönkulutuksen ja tuotannon tasapainottaminen Suomessa sähkön varastoinnin avulla sekä ydinvoiman soveltuvuutta säätövoimaksi ja ydinsähkön varastoinnin kannattavuutta. Työssä vertaillaan mahdollisuuksia sähkön varastointiteknologioiksi, joista valitaan potentiaalisimmat vaihtoehdot kustannus- ja soveltuvuustarkasteluun. Varastointikapasiteetin tarvetta tarkastellaan Suomen nykyisen sähkönkulutuksen ja -tuotannon mukaan sekä tilanteessa, jossa tuuli- ja aurinkovoiman osuus on molemmilla 15 % kokonaistuotantokapasiteetista. Vanhempien sekä nykyaikaisten ydinvoimaloiden soveltuvuutta säätövoimaksi tarkastellaan laitosten säädettävyyden perusteella. Ydinvoimalaa on kuitenkin kannattavinta käyttää mahdollisimman suurella käyttökertoimella, joten tarkastelussa on myös mahdollisuus varastoida sähköä tilanteissa, joissa tuotantoa jouduttaisiin rajoittamaan. Varastointiteknologioiden ja eri skenaarioissa vaadittujen varastointikapasiteettien perusteella voidaan todeta, ettei sähkönkulutuksen ja -tuotannon tasapainottaminen sähkön varastoinnilla ole kannattavaa nykyisillä varastointikustannuksilla ja sähkön hinnoilla. Ydinvoiman voidaan todeta soveltuvan hyvin säätövoimaksi ominaisuuksien puolesta, mutta taloudellisesti se ei ole paras vaihtoehto. Ydinvoimalla tuotetun sähkön varastointi ei ole tällä hetkellä Suomessa kannattavaa matalien sähkön hintojen ja korkeiden varastointikustannusten vuoksi. Sähkön varastoinnista on mahdollista tulla kannattavaa 2020-luvulla. Tämä edellyttää Yhdysvaltojen energiaministeriön asettaman strategian toteutumista, jonka tavoitteena on varastoimalla tuotetun sähkön kustannusten saaminen alle 75 €/MWh.

Direct costs of asthma in Brazil: a comparison between controlled and uncontrolled asthmatic patients

Asthma is a common chronic illness that imposes a heavy burden on all aspects of the patient's life, including personal and health care cost expenditures. To analyze the direct cost associated to uncontrolled asthma patients, a cross-sectional study was conducted to determine costs related to patients with uncontrolled and controlled asthma. Uncontrolled patient was defined by daytime symptoms more than twice a week or nocturnal symptoms during two consecutive nights or any limitations of activities, or need for relief rescue medication more than twice a week, and an ACQ score less than 2 points. A questionnaire about direct cost stratification in health services, including emergency room visits, hospitalization, ambulatory visits, and asthma medications prescribed, was applied. Ninety asthma patients were enrolled (45 uncontrolled/45 controlled). Uncontrolled asthmatics accounted for higher health care expenditures than controlled patients, US$125.45 and US$15.58, respectively [emergency room visits (US$39.15 vs US$2.70) and hospitalization (US$86.30 vs US$12.88)], per patient over 6 months. The costs with medications in the last month for patients with mild, moderate and severe asthma were US$1.60, 9.60, and 25.00 in the uncontrolled patients, respectively, and US$6.50, 19.00 and 49.00 in the controlled patients. In view of the small proportion of uncontrolled subjects receiving regular maintenance medication (22.2%) and their lack of resources, providing free medication for uncontrolled patients might be a cost-effective strategy for the public health system.

Permanent magnet synchronous generator design solution for large directdrive wind turbines: Thermal behavior of the LC DD-PMSG

Wind is one of the most compelling forms of indirect solar energy. Available now, the conversion of wind power into electricity is and will continue to be an important element of energy self-sufficiency planning. This paper is one in a series intended to report on the development of a new type of generator for wind energy; a compact, high-power, direct-drive permanent magnet synchronous generator (DD-PMSG) that uses direct liquid cooling (LC) of the stator windings to manage Joule heating losses. The main param-eters of the subject LC DD-PMSG are 8 MW, 3.3 kV, and 11 Hz. The stator winding is cooled directly by deionized water, which flows through the continuous hollow conductor of each stator tooth-coil winding. The design of the machine is to a large degree subordinate to the use of these solid-copper tooth-coils. Both steady-state and timedependent temperature distributions for LC DD-PMSG were examined with calculations based on a lumpedparameter thermal model, which makes it possible to account for uneven heat loss distribution in the stator conductors and the conductor cooling system. Transient calculations reveal the copper winding temperature distribution for an example duty cycle during variable-speed wind turbine operation. The cooling performance of the liquid cooled tooth-coil design was predicted via finite element analysis. An instrumented cooling loop featuring a pair of LC tooth-coils embedded in a lamination stack was built and laboratory tested to verify the analytical model. Predicted and measured results were in agreement, confirming the predicted satisfactory operation of the LC DD-PMSG cooling technology approach as a whole.

Arctic Offshore Management - uusi liiketoimintakonsepti offshoreteollisuudelle

Aker Arctic Technology Inc. (AACR) on kansainvälisesti tunnettu jäänmurtajien ja muiden arktisten alueiden laivojen suunnitteluun ja tekniseen konsultointiin erikoistuneena yhtiönä. Työn tavoitteena on luoda uusi arktisille alueille suunnattu liiketoimintakonsepti, jossa liiketoimintamallia kehitetään asiakastarpeen mukaan vastaamaan ja luomaan kysyntää palvelulle. Fyysisen kehitystyön tuloksena voidaan tarjota globaalisti ainutlaatuista teknistä testaustoimintaa ja säilytetään mallikoelaitoksen etumatka kilpailijoihin rakenteiden, tasanteiden ja alusten jäissä toimivuuden osalta. Tämän diplomityön teoreettisessa osuudessa kuvataan uusien ja jo olemassa olevien liiketoimintamallien kehittämiseen tarvittavaa johdon strategista välinettä Business Model Canvasia (BMC) ja muita analyysityökaluja. Työn teoreettisessa osuudessa käytettiin tieteellistä kirjallista aineistoa, julkaisuja sekä koti- että ulkomailta. Työn tutkimuksellisessa osuudessa havainnoitiin kuuden kuukauden ajan yrityksen sisällä toiminnassa tapahtuvaa liiketoimintaa. Havainnoinnin kautta kerättiin analyysien tiedot, joiden perusteella yhdessä yrityksen edustajien kanssa saatiin aikaan BMC. Uusi liiketoimintakonseptin todettiin olevan tarpeellinen arktisten offshore-palveluiden lisääntyvässä tarpeessa. Konseptin myötä saadaan nykyinen yrityksen palveluiden kompleksisuus pois ja samalla kyetään aggressiivisemmin markkinoimaan uusia tuotteita asiakkaille. Konseptin suurimpana vahvuutena on omat mallinnustilat, jonka monikäyttöisyys antaa liiketoiminnalle tarvittavan kilpailuedun.

Simulation model of wind turbine gearbox and lubrication system

As increasing efficiency of a wind turbine gearbox, more power can be transferred from rotor blades to generator and less power is used to cause wear and heating in the gearbox. By using a simulation model, behavior of the gearbox can be studied before creating expensive prototypes. The objective of the thesis is to model a wind turbine gearbox and its lubrication system to study power losses and heat transfer inside the gearbox and to study the simulation methods of the used software. Software used to create the simulation model is Siemens LMS Imagine.Lab AMESim, which can be used to create one-dimensional mechatronic system simulation models from different fields of engineering. When combining components from different libraries it is possible to create a simulation model, which includes mechanical, thermal and hydraulic models of the gearbox. Results for mechanical, thermal, and hydraulic simulations are presented in the thesis. Due to the large scale of the wind turbine gearbox and the amount of power transmitted, power loss calculations from AMESim software are inaccurate and power losses are modelled as constant efficiency for each gear mesh. Starting values for simulation in thermal and hydraulic simulations were chosen from test measurements and from empirical study as compact and complex design of gearbox prevents accurate test measurements. In further studies to increase the accuracy of the simulation model, components used for power loss calculations needs to be modified and values for unknown variables are needed to be solved through accurate test measurements.

Thick Section Laser Beam Welding of Structural Steels: Methods for Improving Welding Efficiency

Laser beam welding (LBW) is applicable for a wide range of industrial sectors and has a history of fifty years. However, it is considered an unusual method with applications typically limited to welding of thin sheet metal. With a new generation of high power lasers there has been a renewed interest in thick section LBW (also known as keyhole laser welding). There was a growing body of publications during 2001-2011 that indicates an increasing interest in laser welding for many industrial applications, and in last ten years, an increasing number of studies have examined the ways to increase the efficiency of the process. Expanding the thickness range and efficiency of LBW makes the process a possibility for industrial applications dealing with thick metal welding: shipbuilding, offshore structures, pipelines, power plants and other industries. The advantages provided by LBW, such as high process speed, high productivity, and low heat input, may revolutionize these industries and significantly reduce the process costs. The research to date has focused on either increasing the efficiency via optimizing process parameters, or on the process fundamentals, rather than on process and workpiece modifications. The argument of this thesis is that the efficiency of the laser beam process can be increased in a straightforward way in the workshop conditions. Throughout this dissertation, the term “efficiency” is used to refer to welding process efficiency, specifically, an increase in efficiency refers an increase in weld’s penetration depth without increasing laser power level or decreasing welding speed. These methods are: modifications of the workpiece – edge surface roughness and air gap between the joining plates; modification of the ambient conditions – local reduction of the pressure in the welding zone; modification of the welding process – preheating of the welding zone. Approaches to improve the efficiency are analyzed and compared both separately and combined. These experimentally proven methods confirm previous findings and contribute additional evidence which expand the opportunities for laser beam welding applications. The focus of this research was primarily on the effects of edge surface roughness preparation and pre-set air gap between the plates on weld quality and penetration depth. To date, there has been no reliable evidence that such modifications of the workpiece give a positive effect on the welding efficiency. Other methods were tested in combination with the two methods mentioned above. The most promising - combining with reduced pressure method - resulted in at least 100% increase in efficiency. The results of this thesis support the idea that joining those methods in one modified process will provide the modern engineering with a sufficient tool for many novel applications with potential benefits to a range of industries.

Economics of Power-to-Gas integration to wastewater treatment plant

Solar and wind power produce electricity irregularly. This irregular power production is problematic and therefore production can exceed the need. Thus sufficient energy storage solutions are needed. Currently there are some storages, such as flywheel, but they are quite short-term. Power-to-Gas (P2G) offers a solution to store energy as a synthetic natural gas. It also improves nation’s energy self-sufficiency. Power-to-Gas can be integrated to an industrial or a municipal facility to reduce production costs. In this master’s thesis the integration of Power-to-Gas technologies to wastewater treatment as a part of the VTT’s Neo-Carbon Energy project is studied. Power-to-Gas produces synthetic methane (SNG) from water and carbon dioxide with electricity. This SNG can be considered as stored energy. Basic wastewater treatment technologies and the production of biogas in the treatment plant are studied. The utilisation of biogas and SNG in heat and power production and in transportation is also studied. The integration of the P2G to wastewater treatment plant (WWTP) is examined mainly from economic view. First the mass flows of flowing materials are calculated and after that the economic impact based on the mass flows. The economic efficiency is evaluated with Net Present Value method. In this thesis it is also studied the overall profitability of the integration and the key economic factors.

Impacts of increased levels of wind penetration on the Electric Power System of the Åland Islands

The application of VSC-HVDC technology throughout the world has turned out to be an efficient solution regarding a large share of wind power in different power systems. This technology enhances the overall reliability of the grid by utilization of the active and reactive power control schemes which allows to maintain frequency and voltage on busbars of the end-consumers at the required level stated by the network operator. This master’s thesis is focused on the existing and planned wind farms as well as electric power system of the Åland Islands. The goal is to analyze the wind conditions of the islands and appropriately predict a possible production of the existing and planned wind farms with a help of WAsP software program. Further, to investigate the influence of increased wind power it is necessary to develop a simulation model of the electric grid and VSC-HVDC system in PSCAD and examine grid response to different wind power production cases with respect to the grid code requirements and ensure the stability of the power system.