966 resultados para Numerical weather prediction


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Background The Circle of Willis (CoW) is the most important collateral pathway of the cerebral artery. The present study aims to investigate the collateral capacity of CoW with anatomical variation when unilateral internalcarotid artery (ICA) is occluded. Methods Basing on MRI data, we have reconstructed eight 3D models with variations in the posterior circulation of the CoW and set four different degrees of stenosis in the right ICA, namely 24%, 43%, 64% and 79%, respectively. Finally, a total of 40 models are performed with computational fluid dynamics simulations. All of the simulations share the same boundary condition with static pressure and the volume flow rate (VFR) are obtained to evaluate their collateral capacity. Results As for the middle cerebral artery (MCA) and the anterior cerebral artery (ACA), the transitional-type model possesses the best collateral capacity. But for the posterior cerebral artery (PCA), unilateral stenosis of ICA has the weakest influence on the unilateral posterior communicating artery (PCoA) absent model. We also find that the full fetal-type posterior circle of Willis is an utmost dangerous variation which must be paid more attention. Conclusion The results demonstrate that different models have different collateral capacities in coping stenosis of unilateral ICA and these differences can be reflected by different outlets. The study could be used as a reference for neurosurgeon in choosing the best treatment strategy.

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We propose a dynamic mathematical model of tissue oxygen transport by a preexisting three-dimensional microvascular network which provides nutrients for an in situ cancer at the very early stage of primary microtumour growth. The expanding tumour consumes oxygen during its invasion to the surrounding tissues and cooption of host vessels. The preexisting vessel cooption, remodelling and collapse are modelled by the changes of haemodynamic conditions due to the growing tumour. A detailed computational model of oxygen transport in tumour tissue is developed by considering (a) the time-varying oxygen advection diffusion equation within the microvessel segments, (b) the oxygen flux across the vessel walls, and (c) the oxygen diffusion and consumption with in the tumour and surrounding healthy tissue. The results show the oxygen concentration distribution at different time points of early tumour growth. In addition, the influence of preexisting vessel density on the oxygen transport has been discussed. The proposed model not only provides a quantitative approach for investigating the interactions between tumour growth and oxygen delivery, but also is extendable to model other molecules or chemotherapeutic drug transport in the future study.

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A three-dimensional (3D) mathematical model of tumour growth at the avascular phase and vessel remodelling in host tissues is proposed with emphasis on the study of the interactions of tumour growth and hypoxic micro-environment in host tissues. The hybrid based model includes the continuum part, such as the distributions of oxygen and vascular endothelial growth factors (VEGFs), and the discrete part of tumour cells (TCs) and blood vessel networks. The simulation shows the dynamic process of avascular tumour growth from a few initial cells to an equilibrium state with varied vessel networks. After a phase of rapidly increasing numbers of the TCs, more and more host vessels collapse due to the stress caused by the growing tumour. In addition, the consumption of oxygen expands with the enlarged tumour region. The study also discusses the effects of certain factors on tumour growth, including the density and configuration of preexisting vessel networks and the blood oxygen content. The model enables us to examine the relationship between early tumour growth and hypoxic micro-environment in host tissues, which can be useful for further applications, such as tumour metastasis and the initialization of tumour angiogenesis.

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Background: Coronary tortuosity (CT) is a common coronary angiographic finding. Whether CT leads to an apparent reduction in coronary pressure distal to the tortuous segment of the coronary artery is still unknown. The purpose of this study is to determine the impact of CT on coronary pressure distribution by numerical simulation. Methods: 21 idealized models were created to investigate the influence of coronary tortuosity angle (CTA) and coronary tortuosity number (CTN) on coronary pressure distribution. A 2D incompressible Newtonian flow was assumed and the computational simulation was performed using finite volume method. CTA of 30°, 60°, 90°, 120° and CTN of 0, 1, 2, 3, 4, 5 were discussed under both steady and pulsatile conditions, and the changes of outlet pressure and inlet velocity during the cardiac cycle were considered. Results: Coronary pressure distribution was affected both by CTA and CTN. We found that the pressure drop between the start and the end of the CT segment decreased with CTA, and the length of the CT segment also declined with CTA. An increase in CTN resulted in an increase in the pressure drop. Conclusions: Compared to no-CT, CT can results in more decrease of coronary blood pressure in dependence on the severity of tortuosity and severe CT may cause myocardial ischemia.

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Considering ultrasound propagation through complex composite media as an array of parallel sonic rays, a comparison of computer simulated prediction with experimental data has previously been reported for transmission mode (where one transducer serves as transmitter, the other as receiver) in a series of ten acrylic step-wedge samples, immersed in water, exhibiting varying degrees of transit time inhomogeneity. In this study, the same samples were used but in pulse-echo mode, where the same ultrasound transducer served as both transmitter and receiver, detecting both ‘primary’ (internal sample interface) and ‘secondary’ (external sample interface) echoes. A transit time spectrum (TTS) was derived, describing the proportion of sonic rays with a particular transit time. A computer simulation was performed to predict the transit time and amplitude of various echoes created, and compared with experimental data. Applying an amplitude-tolerance analysis, 91.7±3.7% of the simulated data was within ±1 standard deviation (STD) of the experimentally measured amplitude-time data. Correlation of predicted and experimental transit time spectra provided coefficients of determination (R2) ranging from 100.0% to 96.8% for the various samples tested. The results acquired from this study provide good evidence for the concept of parallel sonic rays. Further, deconvolution of experimental input and output signals has been shown to provide an effective method to identify echoes otherwise lost due to phase cancellation. Potential applications of pulse-echo ultrasound transit time spectroscopy (PE-UTTS) include improvement of ultrasound image fidelity by improving spatial resolution and reducing phase interference artefacts.

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Three simulations of evapotranspiration were done with two values of time step,viz 10 min and one day. Inputs to the model were weather data, including directly measured upward and downward radiation, and soil characteristics. Three soils were used for each simulation. Analysis of the results shows that the time step has a direct influence on the prediction of potential evapotranspiration, but a complex interaction of this effect with the soil moisture characteristic, rate of increase of ground cover and bare soil evaporation determines the actual transpiration predicted. The results indicate that as small a time step as possible should be used in the simulation.

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Doppler weather radars with fast scanning rates must estimate spectral moments based on a small number of echo samples. This paper concerns the estimation of mean Doppler velocity in a coherent radar using a short complex time series. Specific results are presented based on 16 samples. A wide range of signal-to-noise ratios are considered, and attention is given to ease of implementation. It is shown that FFT estimators fare poorly in low SNR and/or high spectrum-width situations. Several variants of a vector pulse-pair processor are postulated and an algorithm is developed for the resolution of phase angle ambiguity. This processor is found to be better than conventional processors at very low SNR values. A feasible approximation to the maximum entropy estimator is derived as well as a technique utilizing the maximization of the periodogram. It is found that a vector pulse-pair processor operating with four lags for clear air observation and a single lag (pulse-pair mode) for storm observation may be a good way to estimate Doppler velocities over the entire gamut of weather phenomena.

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We consider the development of statistical models for prediction of constituent concentration of riverine pollutants, which is a key step in load estimation from frequent flow rate data and less frequently collected concentration data. We consider how to capture the impacts of past flow patterns via the average discounted flow (ADF) which discounts the past flux based on the time lapsed - more recent fluxes are given more weight. However, the effectiveness of ADF depends critically on the choice of the discount factor which reflects the unknown environmental cumulating process of the concentration compounds. We propose to choose the discount factor by maximizing the adjusted R-2 values or the Nash-Sutcliffe model efficiency coefficient. The R2 values are also adjusted to take account of the number of parameters in the model fit. The resulting optimal discount factor can be interpreted as a measure of constituent exhaustion rate during flood events. To evaluate the performance of the proposed regression estimators, we examine two different sampling scenarios by resampling fortnightly and opportunistically from two real daily datasets, which come from two United States Geological Survey (USGS) gaging stations located in Des Plaines River and Illinois River basin. The generalized rating-curve approach produces biased estimates of the total sediment loads by -30% to 83%, whereas the new approaches produce relatively much lower biases, ranging from -24% to 35%. This substantial improvement in the estimates of the total load is due to the fact that predictability of concentration is greatly improved by the additional predictors.

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This project provides a steppingstone to comprehend the mechanisms that govern particulate fouling in metal foam heat exchangers. The method is based on development of an advanced Computational Fluid Dynamics model in addition to performing analytical validation. This novel method allows an engineer to better optimize heat exchanger designs, thereby mitigating fouling, reducing energy consumption caused by fouling, economize capital expenditure on heat exchanger maintenance, and reduce operation downtime. The robust model leads to the establishment of an alternative heat exchanger configuration that has lower pressure drop and particulate deposition propensity.

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The Brix content of pineapple fruit can be non-invasively predicted from the second derivative of near infrared reflectance spectra. Correlations obtained using a NIRSystems 6500 spectrophotometer through multiple linear regression and modified partial least squares analyses using a post-dispersive configuration were comparable with that from a pre-dispersive configuration in terms of accuracy (e.g. coefficient of determination, R2, 0.73; standard error of cross validation, SECV, 1.01°Brix). The effective depth of sample assessed was slightly greater using the post-dispersive technique (about 20 mm for pineapple fruit), as expected in relation to the higher incident light intensity, relative to the pre-dispersive configuration. The effect of such environmental variables as temperature, humidity and external light, and instrumental variables such as the number of scans averaged to form a spectrum, were considered with respect to the accuracy and precision of the measurement of absorbance at 876 nm, as a key term in the calibration for Brix, and predicted Brix. The application of post-dispersive near infrared technology to in-line assessment of intact fruit in a packing shed environment is discussed.

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The electric field in certain electrostatic devices can be modeled by a grounded plate electrode affected by a corona discharge generated by a series of parallel wires connected to a DC high-voltage supply. The system of differential equations that describe the behaviour (i.e., charging and motion) of the conductive particle in such an electric field has been numerically solved, using several simplifying assumptions. Thus, it was possible to investigate the effect of various electrical and mechanical factors on the trajectories of conductive particles. This model has been employed to study the behaviour of coalparticles in fly-ash corona separators.

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Lateral or transaxial truncation of cone-beam data can occur either due to the field of view limitation of the scanning apparatus or iregion-of-interest tomography. In this paper, we Suggest two new methods to handle lateral truncation in helical scan CT. It is seen that reconstruction with laterally truncated projection data, assuming it to be complete, gives severe artifacts which even penetrates into the field of view. A row-by-row data completion approach using linear prediction is introduced for helical scan truncated data. An extension of this technique known as windowed linear prediction approach is introduced. Efficacy of the two techniques are shown using simulation with standard phantoms. A quantitative image quality measure of the resulting reconstructed images are used to evaluate the performance of the proposed methods against an extension of a standard existing technique.

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Traps baited with synthetic aggregation pheromone and fermenting bread dough were used to monitor seasonal incidence and abundance of the ripening fruit pests, Carpophilus hemipterus (L.), C. mutilatus Erichson and C. davidsoni Dobson in stone fruit orchards in the Leeton district of southern New South Wales during five seasons (1991-96). Adult beetles were trapped from September-May, but abundance varied considerably between years with the amount of rainfall in December-January having a major influence on population size and damage potential during the canning peach harvest (late February-March). Below average rainfall in December-January was associated with mean trap catches of < 10 beetles/trap/week in low dose pheromone traps during the harvest period in 1991/92 and 1993/94 and no reported damage to ripening fruit. Rainfall in December-January 1992/93 was more than double the average and mean trap catches ranged from 8-27 beetles/week during the harvest period with substantial damage to the peach crop. December-January rainfall was also above average in 1994/95 and 1995/96 and means of 50-300 beetles/trap/week were recorded in high dose pheromone traps during harvest periods. Carpophilus spp. caused economic damage to peach crops in both seasons. These data indicate that it may be possible to predict the likelihood of Carpophilus beetle damage to ripening stone fruit in inland areas of southern Australia, by routine pheromone-based monitoring of beetle populations and summer temperatures and rainfall.

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Mould growth in field crops or stored grain reduces starch and lipid content, with consequent increases in fibre, and an overall reduction in digestible energy; palatability is often adversely affected. If these factors are allowed for, and mycotoxin concentrations are low, there are sound economic reasons for using this cheaper grain. Mycotoxins are common in stock feed but their effects on animal productivity are usually slight because either the concentration is too low or the animal is tolerant to the toxin. In Australia, aflatoxins occur in peanut by-products and in maize and sorghum if the grain is moist when stored. Zearalenone is found in maize and in sorghum and wheat in wetter regions. Nivalenol and deoxynivalenol are found in maize and wheat but at concentrations that rarely affect pigs, with chickens and cattle being even more tolerant. Other mycotoxins including cyclopiazonic acid, T-2 toxin, cytochalasins and tenuazonic acid are produced by Australian fungi in culture but are not found to be significant grain contaminants. Extremely mouldy sorghum containing Alternaria and Fusarium mycotoxins decreased feed conversion in pigs and chickens by up to 14%. However, E moniliforme- and Diplodia maydis-infected maize produced only slight reductions in feed intake by pigs and Ustilago- infected barley produced no ill effects. Use of these grains would substantially increase profits if the grain can be purchased cheaply.

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A survey for various mycotoxins was carried out on samples of all wheat delivered to nine storage and marketing depots in south-eastern Queensland, selected as most likely to receive mycotoxin-contaminated grain. All wheat was surveyed during 1983, when the degree of weather damage was high. Samples of the poorest grade of wheat from these depots were also surveyed in 1984 and 1985. The surveys included all regions where head scab of wheat caused by Fusariurn graminearurn Schwabe Group 2 had been reported to occur at significant levels. 4-Deoxynivalenol was detected in nearly all pooled samples representing bulk wheat at concentrations ranging from traces of <0.01 up to 1.7 mg kg-1. The highest concentration of zearlenone detected in a pooled wheat sample was 0.04 mg kg-1. In a few samples representing individual wheat deliveries and with up to 2.8% by weight of pink grains, 4-deoxynivalenol concentrations ranged up to 11.7 mg kg-' and zearalenone up to 0.43 mg kg-l. Aflatoxins B,, B2, G1 and G2 were detected in only one pooled sample of wheat, at a total aflatoxin concentration of 0.003 mg kg-'. Ochratoxin A, sterigmatocystin and T-2 toxin were not detected. Higher concentrations of mycotoxins were found in the poorer grades of wheat.