Evidence for interplay between genes and maternal stress in utero: monoamine oxidase A polymorphism moderates effects of life events during pregnancy on infant negative emotionality at 5 weeks

The low activity variant of the monoamine oxidase A (MAOA) functional promoter polymorphism, MAOA-LPR, in interaction with adverse environments (G × E) is associated with child and adult antisocial behaviour disorders. MAOA is expressed during foetal development so in utero G × E may influence early neurodevelopment. We tested the hypothesis that MAOA G × E during pregnancy predicts infant negative emotionality soon after birth. In an epidemiological longitudinal study starting in pregnancy, using a two stage stratified design, we ascertained MAOA-LPR status (low vs. high activity variants) from the saliva of 209 infants (104 boys and 105 girls), and examined predictions to observed infant negative emotionality at 5 weeks post-partum from life events during pregnancy. In analyses weighted to provide estimates for the general population, and including possible confounders for life events, there was an MAOA status by life events interaction (P = 0.017). There was also an interaction between MAOA status and neighbourhood deprivation (P = 0.028). Both interactions arose from a greater effect of increasing life events on negative emotionality in the MAOA-LPR low activity, compared with MAOA-LPR high activity infants. The study provides the first evidence of moderation by MAOA-LPR of the effect of the social environment in pregnancy on negative emotionality in infancy, an early risk for the development of child and adult antisocial behaviour disorders.

Negative priming in free recall reconsidered

Recent investigations of the phenomenon of forgetting have been driven mostly by the development of a novel theoretical framework which places great emphasis on inhibitory control (Anderson, 2003; Anderson & Spellman, 1995; Bjork, 1989). Whereas traditional, interference-based theories consider forgetting to be a by-product of storing new information, the inhibitory framework postulates a specialized mechanism, or a group of mechanisms, that serves the function of ‘deactivating’ information which is currently irrelevant. This process of inhibiting currently irrelevant information is thought to have lasting consequences, affecting memory for the irrelevant information on subsequent tests. The active and functional perspective on forgetting embedded in the inhibitory framework opens new fields for examining the role of forgetting in cognitive functioning. Differences in the ability to inhibit irrelevant information have been postulated to play important roles in a range of clinical conditions (e.g., Soriano, Jiménez, Román, & Bajo, 2009; Storm & White, 2010) and the trajectory of cognitive development (e.g., Aslan & Bäuml, 2010) as well as contributing to individual differences in many other cognitive and social domains (Redick, Heitz, & Engle, 2007).

How remote are R&D labs? Distance factors and international innovative activities

This paper shows that value creation by multinational enterprises (MNEs) is the result of activities where geographic distance effects can be overcome. We submit that geographic distance has a relatively low impact on international research and development (R&D) investments, owing to the spiky nature of innovation, and to the unique ability of MNEs to absorb and transfer knowledge on a global scale. On the one hand, MNEs need to set up their labs as close as possible to specialized technology clusters where valuable knowledge is concentrated, largely regardless of distance from their home base. On the other, MNEs have historically developed technical and organizational competencies that enable them to transfer knowledge within their internal networks and across technology clusters at relatively low cost. Using data on R&D and manufacturing investments of 6320 firms in 59 countries, we find that geographic distance has a lower negative impact on the probability of setting up R&D than manufacturing plants. Furthermore, once measures of institutional proximity are accounted for, MNEs are equally likely to set up R&D labs in nearby or in more remote locations. This result is driven by MNEs based in Triad countries, whereas for non-Triad MNEs the effect of geographic distance on cross-border R&D is negative and significant.

‘It Was All My Fault’: negative interpretation bias in depressed adolescents

The extent to which cognitive models of development and maintenance of depression apply to adolescents is largely untested, despite the widespread application of Cognitive Behavior Therapy (CBT) for depressed adolescents. Cognitive models suggest that negative cognitions, including interpretation bias, play a role in etiology and maintenance of depression. Given that cognitive development is incomplete by the teenage years and that CBT is not superior to non-cognitive treatments in the treatment of adolescent depression, it is important to test the underlying model. The primary aim of this study was to test the hypothesis that interpretation biases are exhibited by depressed adolescents. Four groups of adolescents were recruited: clinically-referred depressed (n = 27), clinically-referred non-depressed (n = 24), community with elevated depression symptoms (n = 42) and healthy community (n = 150). Participants completed a 20 item ambiguous scenarios questionnaire. Clinically-referred depressed adolescents made significantly more negative interpretations and rated scenarios as less pleasant than all other groups. The results suggest that this element of the cognitive model of depression is applicable to adolescents. Other aspects of the model should be tested so that cognitive treatment can be modified or adapted if necessary.

Mechanisms of the negative shortwave cloud feedback in mid to high latitudes

Increases in cloud optical depth and liquid water path (LWP) are robust features of global warming model simulations in high latitudes, yielding a negative shortwave cloud feedback, but the mechanisms are still uncertain. We assess the importance of microphysical processes for the negative optical depth feedback by perturbing temperature in the microphysics schemes of two aquaplanet models, both of which have separate prognostic equations for liquid water and ice. We find that most of the LWP increase with warming is caused by a suppression of ice microphysical processes in mixed-phase clouds, resulting in reduced conversion efficiencies of liquid water to ice and precipitation. Perturbing the temperature-dependent phase partitioning of convective condensate also yields a small LWP increase. Together, the perturbations in large-scale microphysics and convective condensate partitioning explain more than two-thirds of the LWP response relative to a reference case with increased SSTs, and capture all of the vertical structure of the liquid water response. In support of these findings, we show the existence of a very robust positive relationship between monthly-mean LWP and temperature in CMIP5 models and observations in mixed-phase cloud regions only. In models, the historical LWP sensitivity to temperature is a good predictor of the forced global warming response poleward of about 45°, although models appear to overestimate the LWP response to warming compared to observations. We conclude that in climate models, the suppression of ice-phase microphysical processes that deplete cloud liquid water is a key driver of the LWP increase with warming and of the associated negative shortwave cloud feedback.

Incentive effects on risk attitude in small probability prospects

We report between-subject results on the effect of monetary stakes on risk attitudes. While we find the typical risk seeking for small probabilities, risk seeking is reduced under high stakes. This suggests that utility is not consistently concave.

An LDA and probability-based classifier for the diagnosis of Alzheimer's Disease from structural MRI

In this paper a custom classification algorithm based on linear discriminant analysis and probability-based weights is implemented and applied to the hippocampus measurements of structural magnetic resonance images from healthy subjects and Alzheimer’s Disease sufferers; and then attempts to diagnose them as accurately as possible. The classifier works by classifying each measurement of a hippocampal volume as healthy controlsized or Alzheimer’s Disease-sized, these new features are then weighted and used to classify the subject as a healthy control or suffering from Alzheimer’s Disease. The preliminary results obtained reach an accuracy of 85.8% and this is a similar accuracy to state-of-the-art methods such as a Naive Bayes classifier and a Support Vector Machine. An advantage of the method proposed in this paper over the aforementioned state of the art classifiers is the descriptive ability of the classifications it produces. The descriptive model can be of great help to aid a doctor in the diagnosis of Alzheimer’s Disease, or even further the understand of how Alzheimer’s Disease affects the hippocampus.

On competitive bidding: scoring and position probability graphs

Iso-score curves graph (iSCG) and mathematical relationships between Scoring Parameters (SP) and Forecasting Parameters (FP) can be used in Economic Scoring Formulas (ESF) used in tendering to distribute the score among bidders in the economic part of a proposal. Each contracting authority must set an ESF when publishing tender specifications and the strategy of each bidder will differ depending on the ESF selected and the weight of the overall proposal scoring. The various mathematical relationships and density distributions that describe the main SPs and FPs, and the representation of tendering data by means of iSCGs, enable the generation of two new types of graphs that can be very useful for bidders who want to be more competitive: the scoring and position probability graphs.

Improving the estimation of probability of bidder participation in procurement auctions

Anticipating the number and identity of bidders has significant influence in many theoretical results of the auction itself and bidders' bidding behaviour. This is because when a bidder knows in advance which specific bidders are likely competitors, this knowledge gives a company a head start when setting the bid price. However, despite these competitive implications, most previous studies have focused almost entirely on forecasting the number of bidders and only a few authors have dealt with the identity dimension qualitatively. Using a case study with immediate real-life applications, this paper develops a method for estimating every potential bidder's probability of participating in a future auction as a function of the tender economic size removing the bias caused by the contract size opportunities distribution. This way, a bidder or auctioner will be able to estimate the likelihood of a specific group of key, previously identified bidders in a future tender.

Plastic and evolutionary responses to heat stress in a temperate dung fly: negative correlation between basal and induced heat tolerance?

Extreme weather events such as heat waves are becoming more frequent and intense. Populations can cope with elevated heat stress by evolving higher basal heat tolerance (evolutionary response) and/or stronger induced heat tolerance (plastic response). However, there is ongoing debate about whether basal and induced heat tolerance are negatively correlated and whether adaptive potential in heat tolerance is sufficient under ongoing climate warming. To evaluate the evolutionary potential of basal and induced heat tolerance, we performed experimental evolution on a temperate source 4 population of the dung fly Sepsis punctum. Offspring of flies adapted to three thermal selection regimes (Hot, Cold and Reference) were subjected to acute heat stress after having been exposed to either a hot-acclimation or non-acclimation pretreatment. As different traits may respond differently to temperature stress, several physiological and life history traits were assessed. Condition dependence of the response was evaluated by exposing juveniles to different levels of developmental (food restriction/rearing density) stress. Heat knockdown times were highest, whereas acclimation effects were lowest in the Hot selection regime, indicating a negative association between basal and induced heat tolerance. However, survival, adult longevity, fecundity and fertility did not show such a pattern. Acclimation had positive effects in heat-shocked flies, but in the absence of heat stress hot-acclimated flies had reduced life spans relative to nonacclimated ones, thereby revealing a potential cost of acclimation. Moreover, body size positively affected heat tolerance and unstressed individuals were less prone to heat stress than stressed flies, offering support for energetic costs associated with heat tolerance. Overall, our results indicate that heat tolerance of temperate insects can evolve under rising temperatures, but this response could be limited by a negative relationship between basal and induced thermotolerance, and may involve some but not other fitness-related traits.

The buck passing account of value: assessing the negative thesis

The buck-passing account of value involves a positive and a negative claim. The positive claim is that to be good is to have reasons for a pro-attitude. The negative claim is that goodness itself is not a reason for a pro-attitude. Unlike Scanlon, Parfit rejects the negative claim. He maintains that goodness is reason-providing, but that the reason provided is not an additional reason, additional, that is, to the reason provided by the good-making property. I consider various ways in which this may be understood and reject all of them. So I conclude that buck-passers cannot reject the negative claim.

Observational evidence for a negative shortwave cloud feedback in middle to high latitudes

Exploiting the observed robust relationships between temperature and optical depth in extratropical clouds, we calculate the shortwave cloud feedback from historical data, by regressing observed and modeled cloud property histograms onto local temperature in middle to high southern latitudes. In this region, all CMIP5 models and observational data sets predict a negative cloud feedback, mainly driven by optical thickening. Between 45° and 60°S, the mean observed shortwave feedback (−0.91 ± 0.82 W m−2 K−1, relative to local rather than global mean warming) is very close to the multimodel mean feedback in RCP8.5 (−0.98 W m−2 K−1), despite differences in the meridional structure. In models, historical temperature-cloud property relationships reliably predict the forced RCP8.5 response. Because simple theory predicts this optical thickening with warming, and cloud amount changes are relatively small, we conclude that the shortwave cloud feedback is very likely negative in the real world at middle to high latitudes.

The teleconnection of the tropical Atlantic to Indo-Pacific sea surface temperatures on inter-annual to centennial time scales: a review of recent findings

In this paper, the teleconnections from the tropical Atlantic to the Indo-Pacific region from inter-annual to centennial time scales will be reviewed. Identified teleconnections and hypotheses on mechanisms at work are reviewed and further explored in a century-long pacemaker coupled ocean-atmosphere simulation ensemble. There is a substantial impact of the tropical Atlantic on the Pacific region at inter-annual time scales. An Atlantic Niño (Niña) event leads to rising (sinking) motion in the Atlantic region, which is compensated by sinking (rising) motion in the central-western Pacific. The sinking (rising) motion in the central-western Pacific induces easterly (westerly) surface wind anomalies just to the west, which alter the thermocline. These perturbations propagate eastward as upwelling (downwelling) Kelvin-waves, where they increase the probability for a La Niña (El Niño) event. Moreover, tropical North Atlantic sea surface temperature anomalies are also able to lead La Niña/El Niño development. At multidecadal time scales, a positive (negative) Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation leads to a cooling (warming) of the eastern Pacific and a warming (cooling) of the western Pacific and Indian Ocean regions. The physical mechanism for this impact is similar to that at inter-annual time scales. At centennial time scales, the Atlantic warming induces a substantial reduction of the eastern Pacific warming even under CO2 increase and to a strong subsurface cooling.

The effect of targeting tolerance of children's negative emotions among anxious parents of children with anxiety disorders: a pilot randomised controlled trial

Following cognitive behavioural therapy for child anxiety a significant minority of children fail to lose their diagnosis status. One potential barrier is high parental anxiety. We designed a pilot RCT to test claims that parental intolerance of the child’s negative emotions may impact treatment outcomes. Parents of 60 children with an anxiety disorder, who were themselves highly anxious, received either brief parent-delivered treatment for child anxiety or the same treatment with strategies specifically targeting parental tolerance of their child’s negative emotions. Consistent with predictions, parental tolerance of the child’s negative emotions significantly improved from pre- to post-treatment. However, there was no evidence to inform the direction of this association as improvements were substantial in both groups. Moreover, while there were significant improvements in child anxiety in both conditions, there was little evidence that this was associated with the improvement in parental tolerance. Nevertheless, findings provide important clinical insight, including that parent-led treatments are appropriate even when the parent is highly anxious and that it may not be necessary to adjust interventions for many families.