Logistic regression to estimate the welfare of broiler breeders in relation to environmental and behavioral variables

The increasing demand of consumer markets for the welfare of birds in poultry house has motivated many scientific researches to monitor and classify the welfare according to the production environment. Given the complexity between the birds and the environment of the aviary, the correct interpretation of the conduct becomes an important way to estimate the welfare of these birds. This study obtained multiple logistic regression models with capacity of estimating the welfare of broiler breeders in relation to the environment of the aviaries and behaviors expressed by the birds. In the experiment, were observed several behaviors expressed by breeders housed in a climatic chamber under controlled temperatures and three different ammonia concentrations from the air monitored daily. From the analysis of the data it was obtained two logistic regression models, of which the first model uses a value of ammonia concentration measured by unit and the second model uses a binary value to classify the ammonia concentration that is assigned by a person through his olfactory perception. The analysis showed that both models classified the broiler breeder's welfare successfully.

Adjust of regression models to estimate the rectal temperature of broilers for the first 14 days of life

The broiler rectal temperature (t rectal) is one of the most important physiological responses to classify the animal thermal comfort. Therefore, the aim of this study was to adjust regression models in order to predict the rectal temperature (t rectal) of broiler chickens under different thermal conditions based on age (A) and a meteorological variable (air temperature - t air) or a thermal comfort index (temperature and humidity index -THI or black globe humidity index - BGHI) or a physical quantity enthalpy (H). In addition, through the inversion of these models and the expected t rectal intervals for each age, the comfort limits of t air, THI, BGHI and H for the chicks in the heating phase were determined, aiding in the validation of the equations and the preliminary limits for H. The experimental data used to adjust the mathematical models were collected in two commercial poultry farms, with Cobb chicks, from 1 to 14 days of age. It was possible to predict the t rectal of conditions from the expected t rectal and determine the lower and superior comfort thresholds of broilers satisfactorily by applying the four models adjusted; as well as to invert the models for prediction of the environmental H for the chicks first 14 days of life.

Soil penetration resistance analysis by multivariate and geostatistical methods

The penetration resistance (PR) is a soil attribute that allows identifies areas with restrictions due to compaction, which results in mechanical impedance for root growth and reduced crop yield. The aim of this study was to characterize the PR of an agricultural soil by geostatistical and multivariate analysis. Sampling was done randomly in 90 points up to 0.60 m depth. It was determined spatial distribution models of PR, and defined areas with mechanical impedance for roots growth. The PR showed a random distribution to 0.55 and 0.60 m depth. PR in other depths analyzed showed spatial dependence, with adjustments to exponential and spherical models. The cluster analysis that considered sampling points allowed establishing areas with compaction problem identified in the maps by kriging interpolation. The analysis with main components identified three soil layers, where the middle layer showed the highest values of PR.

Integrated multivariate analysis to evaluate effects of pre-slaughter handling on pork quality

The aim of this study was to investigate the effect of pre-slaughter handling on the occurrence of PSE (Pale, Soft, and Exudative) meat in swine slaughtered at a commercial slaughterhouse located in the metropolitan region of Dourados, Mato Grosso do Sul, Brazil. Based on the database (n=1,832 carcasses), it was possible to apply the integrated multivariate analysis for the purpose of identifying, among the selected variables, those of greatest relevance to this study. Results of the Principal Component Analysis showed that the first five components explained 89.28% of total variance. In the Factor Analysis, the first factor represented the thermal stress and fatiguing conditions for swine during pre-slaughter handling. In general, this study indicated the importance of the pre-slaughter handling stages, evidencing those of greatest stress and threat to animal welfare and pork quality, which are transport time, resting period, lairage time before unloading, unloading time, and ambience.

Multivariate statistical analysis to support the minimum streamflow regionalization

ABSTRACT This study aimed to develop a methodology based on multivariate statistical analysis of principal components and cluster analysis, in order to identify the most representative variables in studies of minimum streamflow regionalization, and to optimize the identification of the hydrologically homogeneous regions for the Doce river basin. Ten variables were used, referring to the river basin climatic and morphometric characteristics. These variables were individualized for each of the 61 gauging stations. Three dependent variables that are indicative of minimum streamflow (Q7,10, Q90 and Q95). And seven independent variables that concern to climatic and morphometric characteristics of the basin (total annual rainfall – Pa; total semiannual rainfall of the dry and of the rainy season – Pss and Psc; watershed drainage area – Ad; length of the main river – Lp; total length of the rivers – Lt; and average watershed slope – SL). The results of the principal component analysis pointed out that the variable SL was the least representative for the study, and so it was discarded. The most representative independent variables were Ad and Psc. The best divisions of hydrologically homogeneous regions for the three studied flow characteristics were obtained using the Mahalanobis similarity matrix and the complete linkage clustering method. The cluster analysis enabled the identification of four hydrologically homogeneous regions in the Doce river basin.

Novel Regression Methods For Spectral Data

Singular Value Decomposition (SVD), Principal Component Analysis (PCA) and Multiple Linear Regression (MLR) are some of the mathematical pre- liminaries that are discussed prior to explaining PLS and PCR models. Both PLS and PCR are applied to real spectral data and their di erences and similarities are discussed in this thesis. The challenge lies in establishing the optimum number of components to be included in either of the models but this has been overcome by using various diagnostic tools suggested in this thesis. Correspondence analysis (CA) and PLS were applied to ecological data. The idea of CA was to correlate the macrophytes species and lakes. The di erences between PLS model for ecological data and PLS for spectral data are noted and explained in this thesis. i

The impact of a chest tube management protocol on the outcome of trauma patients with tube thoracostomy

ABSTRACTObjective:to investigate the effect of standardized interventions in the management of tube thoracostomy patients and to assess the independent effect of each intervention.Methods:A chest tube management protocol was assessed in a retrospective cohort study. The tube thoracostomy protocol (TTP) was implemented in August 2012, and consisted of: antimicrobial prophylaxis, chest tube insertion in the operating room (OR), admission post chest tube thoracostomy (CTT) in a hospital floor separate from the emergency department (ED), and daily respiratory therapy (RT) sessions post-CTT. The inclusion criteria were, hemodynamic stability, patients between the ages of 15 and 59 years, and injury severity score (ISS) < 17. All patients had isolated injuries to the chest wall, lung, and pleura. During the study period 92 patients were managed according to the standardized protocol. The outcomes of those patients were compared to 99 patients treated before the TTP. Multivariate logistic regression analysis was performed to assess the independent effect of each variable of the protocol on selected outcomes.Results:Demographics, injury severity, and trauma mechanisms were similar among the groups. As expected, protocol compliance increased after the implementation of the TTP. There was a significant reduction (p<0.05) in the incidence of retained hemothoraces, empyemas, pneumonias, surgical site infections, post-procedural complications, hospital length of stay, and number of chest tube days. Respiratory therapy was independently linked to significant reduction (p<0.05) in the incidence of seven out of eight undesired outcomes after CTT. Antimicrobial prophylaxis was linked to a significant decrease (p<0.05) in retained hemothoraces, despite no significant (p<0.10) reductions in empyema and surgical site infections. Conversely, OR chest tube insertion was associated with significant (p<0.05) reduction of both complications, and also significantly decreased the incidence of pneumonias.Conclusion:Implementation of a TTP effectively reduced complications after CTT in trauma patients.

Maternal age and adverse perinatal outcomes in a birth cohort (BRISA) from a Northeastern Brazilian city

PURPOSE:To verify the existence of associations between different maternal ages and the perinatal outcomes of preterm birth and intrauterine growth restriction in the city of São Luís, Maranhão, Northeastern Brazil.METHODS:A cross-sectional study using a sample of 5,063 hospital births was conducted in São Luís, from January to December 2010. The participants comprise the birth cohort for the study "Etiological factors of preterm birth and consequences of perinatal factors for infant health: birth cohorts from two Brazilian cities" (BRISA). Frequencies and 95% confidence intervals were used to describe the results. Multiple logistic regression models were applied to assess the adjusted odds ratio (OR) of maternal age associated with the following outcomes: preterm birth and intrauterine growth restriction.RESULTS:The percentage of early teenage pregnancy (12–15 years old) was 2.2%, and of late (16–19 years old) was 16.4%, while pregnancy at an advanced maternal age (>35 years) was 5.9%. Multivariate analyses showed a statistically significant increase in preterm births among females aged 12–15 years old (OR=1.6; p=0.04) compared with those aged 20–35 years. There was also a higher rate in preterm births among females aged 16–19 years old (OR=1.3; p=0.01). Among those with advanced maternal age (>35 years old), the increase in the prevalence of preterm birth had only borderline statistical significance (OR=1.4; p=0.05). There was no statistically significant association between maternal age and increased prevalence of intrauterine growth restriction.

Factors associated with postpartum weight retention in a Brazilian cohort

PURPOSE: To identify the factors associated with weight retention after pregnancy.METHODS: A cohort study was performed with 145 women receiving maternity care at a hospital in Caxias do Sul, Rio Grande do Sul, Brazil, aged 19 to 45 years, between weeks 38 and 42 of pregnancy. The patients were evaluated at one month, three months, and six months after delivery. Student's t-test or one-way analysis of variance (ANOVA) was used to compare groups, as indicated; correlations were assessed with Pearson's and Spearman's tests, as indicated; to identify and evaluate confounders independently associated with total weight loss, a multivariate linear regression analysis was performed and statistical significance was set at p≤0.05.RESULTS: There was a significant positive association between total weight gain - and a negative association with physical exercise during pregnancy - with total weight loss. Higher parity, inter-pregnancy interval, calorie intake, pre-pregnancy body mass index (BMI), weight gain related to pre-pregnancy BMI, presence and severity of depression, and lack of exclusive breastfeeding were directly associated with lower weight loss. Among nominal variables, level of education and marital status were significantly associated with total weight loss.CONCLUSION: In the present study, lower weight retention in the postpartum period was associated with higher educational attainment and with being married. Normal or below-normal pre-pregnancy BMI, physical activity and adequate weight gain during pregnancy, lower parity, exclusive breastfeeding for a longer period, appropriate or low calorie intake, and absence of depression were also determinants of reduced weight retention.

Prevalence and risk factors for Leptospira spp. in cattle herds in the south central region of Paraná state

The aim of this study was to determine the prevalence of anti-Leptospira spp. antibodies and the risk factors for Leptospira spp. infection in breeding cattle herds in the south central region of Paraná state. It was based on the statistic delineation/serological samples and information regarding the selected farms employed in the study of bovine brucellosis for Paraná state in the context of National Program for Control and Eradication of Brucellosis and Tuberculosis. A total of 1.880 females aged >24 months from 274 non vaccinated herds were studied. Serum samples were tested for antibodies against Leptospira spp. using microscopic agglutination test (MAT) with 22 Leptospira serovars. The epidemiological questionnaire was applied on all the selected farms and aimed to obtain epidemiological data. Hundred eighty one of 274 herds were positive for Leptospira spp./presenting prevalence of positive herds of 66.06% (IC95%=60.12-71,65%). Presence of >43 cattle (OR=3.120; IC=1.418-6.867)/animal purchase (OR=2.010; IC=1.154-3.500)/rent of pastures (OR=2.925; IC=1.060-8.068) and presence of maternity paddock (OR=1.981; IC=1,068-3,676) were identified as risk factors for leptospirosis due to any serovar in the multivariate logistic regression. Risk factors for leptospirosis due to serovar Hardjo were presence of >43 cattle (OR=3.622; IC=1.512-8,677)/animal purchase (OR=3.143; IC=1.557-6.342)/rent of pastures (OR=4.070; IC=1.370-12.087) and presence of horses (OR=2.981; IC=1.321-6.726). These results indicate that Leptospira spp. infection is widespread in the south central region of Paraná state and that factors related to the herd characteristic and management are associated with the infection.

Seroprevalence and risk factors associated with Chlamydophila abortus infection in dairy goats in the Northeast of Brazil

Few data are available on the prevalence and risk factors of Chlamydophila abortus infection in goats in Brazil. A cross-sectional study was carried out to determine the flock-level prevalence of C. abortus infection in goats from the semiarid region of the Paraíba State, Northeast region of Brazil, as well as to identify risk factors associated with the infection. Flocks were randomly selected and a pre-established number of female goats > 12 mo old were sampled in each of these flocks. A total of 975 serum samples from 110 flocks were collected, and structured questionnaire focusing on risk factors for C. abortus infection was given to each farmer at the time of blood collection. For the serological diagnosis the complement fixation test (CFT) using C. abortus S26/3 strain as antigen was performed. The flock-level factors for C. abortus prevalence were tested using multivariate logistic regression model. Fifty-five flocks out of 110 presented at least one seropositive animal with an overall prevalence of 50.0% (95%; CI: 40.3%, 59.7%). Ninety-one out of 975 dairy goats examined were seropositive with titers >32, resulting in a frequency of 9.3%. Lend buck for breeding (odds ratio = 2.35; 95% CI: 1.04-5.33) and history of abortions (odds ratio = 3.06; 95% CI: 1.37-6.80) were associated with increased flock prevalence.

Occurrence and risk factors assessment associated with Mycoplasma gallisepticum (MG) infection in chickens in the semiarid region of Pernambuco, Brazil

Abstract: The aim of the present study was to assess the occurrence of Mycoplasma gallisepticum (MG) infection and risk factors of this disease in three hundred serum samples from on 23 familiar agricultural properties in the semiarid region of the state of Pernambuco, Brazil. ELISA was used to study antibodies anti-Mycoplasma gallisepticum. The univariate analysis (chi-squared test or Fischer's exact test) followed by multivariate analysis (logistic regression) were used to assess the risk factors with two variables: management and sanity of the poultry. It was detected a frequence of 53.33% (157/300) of the birds were positive for MG, with 100% foci. The risk factors confirmed by multivariate analysis, in the present study, were the presence of other poultry species on the property, including Numida meleagris (OR=2.22; p=0.005), parrots (OR=1.72; p=0.027), and of passerines (OR=1.88; p=0.007). These results showed that Mycoplasma gallisepticum infection is endemic among backyard poultry in the semiarid region of the state of Pernambuco. These birds could be a source of infection for other wild or domestic poultry. . This is the first report of the occurrence of avian mycoplasmosis in backyard poultry in the state of Pernambuco in northeastern Brazil. The risk factors identified should serve as a parameter for the health authorities to seek solutions related to controlling the disease.

Multivariate analysis of pollen frequency of the native species Escallonia pulverulenta (Saxifragaceae) in Chilean honeys

The aim of this work was the identification of geographic zones suitable for the production of honeys in which pollen grains of Escallonia pulverulenta (Ruiz & Pav.) Pers. (Saxifragaceae) can be detected. The analysis of botanical origin of 240 honey samples produced between La Serena and Puerto Mont (the IV and X Administrative Regions of Chile), allowed the detection of pollen grains of E. pulverulenta in 46 Chilean honeys. The geographic distribution of the honeys studied is presented together with their affinities, through factor analysis and frequency tables. The study was based on the presence of E. pulverulenta pollen. Escallonia pulverulenta pollen percentages oscillated between 0.24% and 78.5%. Seventeen of the studied samples were designated as unifloral - i.e. samples showing more than 45% pollen of a determined plant species. Two of these corresponded to E. pulverulenta (corontillo, madroño or barraco) honeys. The remaining unifloral honeys correspond to 8 samples of Lotus uliginosus Schkuhr (birdsfoot trefoil), 2 samples of Aristotelia chilensis (Molina) Stuntz (maqui) and 1 sample of Escallonia rubra (Ruiz & Pav.) Pers. (siete camisas), Eucryphia cordifolia Cav. (ulmo or muemo), Weinmannia trichosperma Cav. (tineo), Rubus ulmifolius Schott (blackberry) and Brassica rapa L. (turnip). Honeys with different percentages of E. pulverulenta pollen - statistically analyzed through correspondence analysis - could be associated and assigned to one of three geographic types, defined on the basis of this analysis. The geographical type areas defined were the Northern Mediterranean Zone (samples from the IV Region), Central Mediterranean Zone (samples from the V to the VIII regions including two samples of unifloral Escallonia pulverulenta honey), and Southern Mediterranean Zone (samples from the IX Region).

Multivariate genetic divergence and hybrid performance of cacao (Theobroma cacao L.)

Genetic distances among cacao cultivars were calculated through multivariate analysis, using the D2 statistic, to examine racial group classification and to assess heterotic hybrids. A 5 x 5 complete diallel was evaluated. Over a five-year period (1986-1990), five cultivars of the S1 generation, pertaining to the Lower Amazon Forastero and Trinitario racial groups and 20 crosses between the corresponding S0 parents were analyzed, based upon five yield components - number of healthy and collected fruits per plant (NHFP and NCFP), wet seed weight per plant and per fruit (WSWP and WSWF), and percentage of diseased fruits per plant (PDFP). The diversity analysis suggested a close relationship between the Trinitario and Lower Amazon Forastero groups. A correlation coefficient (r) was calculated to determine the association between genetic diversity and heterosis. Genetic distance of parents by D2 was found to be linearly related to average performance of hybrids for WSWP and WSWF (r = 0.68, P < 0.05 and r = 0.76, P < 0.05, respectively). The heterotic performance for the same components was also correlated with D2, both with r = 0.66 (P < 0.05). A relationship between genetic divergence and combining ability effects was suggested because the most divergent cultivar exhibited a high general combining ability, generating the best performing hybrids. Results indicated that genetic diversity estimates can be useful in selecting parents for crosses and in assessing relationships among cacao racial groups.

Dialysis, time and death: comparisons of two consecutive decades among patients treated at the same Brazilian dialysis center

The survival of hemodialysis patients is likely to be influenced not only by well-known risk factors like age and comorbidity, but also by changes in dialysis technology and practices accumulated along time. We compared the survival curves, dialysis routines and some risk factors of two groups of patients admitted to a Brazilian maintenance hemodialysis program during two consecutive decades: March 1977 to December 1986 (group 1, N = 162) and January 1987 to June 1997 (group 2, N = 237). The median treatment time was 22 months (range 1-198). Survival curves were constructed using the Kaplan-Meier method and compared using the log-rank method. The Cox proportional hazard regression model was used to investigate the more important variables associated with outcome. The most important changes in dialysis routine and in patient care during the total period of observation were the progressive increase in the dose of dialysis delivered, the prohibition of potassium-free dialysate, the use of bicarbonate as a buffer and the upgrading of the dialysis equipment. There were no significant differences between the survival curves of the two groups. Survival rates at 1, 5 and 10 years were 84, 53 and 29%, respectively, for group 1 and 77, 42 and 21% for group 2. Patients in group 1 were younger (45.5 ± 15.2 vs 55.2 ± 15.9 years, P<0.001) and had a lower prevalence of diabetes (11.1 vs 27.4%, P<0.001) and of cardiovascular disease (9.3 vs 20.7%, P<0.001). According to the Cox multivariate model, only age (hazard ratio (HR) 1.04, confidence interval (CI) 1.03-1.05, P<0.001) and diabetes (HR 2.55, CI 1.82-3.58, P<0.001) were independent predictors of mortality for the whole group. Patients of group 2 had a lower prevalence of sudden death (19.1 vs 9.7%, P<0.001). After adjusting for age, diabetes and other mortality risk factors, the risk of death was 17% lower in group 2, although this difference was not statistically significant. We conclude that the negative effects of advanced age and of higher frequency of comorbidity on the survival of group 2 patients were probably offset by improvements in patient care and in the quality and dose of dialysis delivered, so that the survival curves did not undergo significant changes along time.