Prospective registry of symptomatic severe aortic stenosis in octogenarians: a need for intervention.

OBJECTIVE To study the factors associated with choice of therapy and prognosis in octogenarians with severe symptomatic aortic stenosis (AS). STUDY DESIGN Prospective, observational, multicenter registry. Centralized follow-up included survival status and, if possible, mode of death and Katz index. SETTING Transnational registry in Spain. SUBJECTS We included 928 patients aged ≥80 years with severe symptomatic AS. INTERVENTIONS Aortic-valve replacement (AVR), transcatheter aortic-valve implantation (TAVI) or conservative therapy. MAIN OUTCOME MEASURES All-cause death. RESULTS Mean age was 84.2 ± 3.5 years, and only 49.0% were independent (Katz index A). The most frequent planned management was conservative therapy in 423 (46%) patients, followed by TAVI in 261 (28%) and AVR in 244 (26%). The main reason against recommending AVR in 684 patients was high surgical risk [322 (47.1%)], other medical motives [193 (28.2%)], patient refusal [134 (19.6%)] and family refusal in the case of incompetent patients [35 (5.1%)]. The mean time from treatment decision to AVR was 4.8 ± 4.6 months and to TAVI 2.1 ± 3.2 months, P < 0.001. During follow-up (11.2-38.9 months), 357 patients (38.5%) died. Survival rates at 6, 12, 18 and 24 months were 81.8%, 72.6%, 64.1% and 57.3%, respectively. Planned intervention, adjusted for multiple propensity score, was associated with lower mortality when compared with planned conservative treatment: TAVI Hazard ratio (HR) 0.68 (95% confidence interval [CI] 0.49-0.93; P = 0.016) and AVR HR 0.56 (95% CI 0.39-0.8; P = 0.002). CONCLUSION Octogenarians with symptomatic severe AS are frequently managed conservatively. Planned conservative management is associated with a poor prognosis.

Probabilistic models to assist maintenance of multiple instruments

The paper discusses maintenance challenges of organisations with a huge number of devices and proposes the use of probabilistic models to assist monitoring and maintenance planning. The proposal assumes connectivity of instruments to report relevant features for monitoring. Also, the existence of enough historical registers with diagnosed breakdowns is required to make probabilistic models reliable and useful for predictive maintenance strategies based on them. Regular Markov models based on estimated failure and repair rates are proposed to calculate the availability of the instruments and Dynamic Bayesian Networks are proposed to model cause-effect relationships to trigger predictive maintenance services based on the influence between observed features and previously documented diagnostics

The appropriateness of renal angioplasty: the ANPARIA software: a multidisciplinary expert panel approach

Percutaneous transluminal renal angioplasty (PTRA) is an invasive technique that is costly and involves the risk of complications and renal failure. The ability of PTRA to reduce the administration of antihypertensive drugs has been demonstrated. A potentially greater benefit, which nevertheless remains to be proven, is the deferral of the need for chronic dialysis. The aim of the study (ANPARIA) was to assess the appropriateness of PTRA to impact on the evolution of renal function. A standardized expert panel method was used to assess the appropriateness of medical treatment alone or medical treatment with revascularization in various clinical situations. The choice of revascularization by either PTRA or surgery was examined for each clinical situation. Analysis was based on a detailed literature review and on systematically elicited expert opinion, which were obtained during a two-round modified Delphi process. The study provides detailed responses on the appropriateness of PTRA for 1848 distinct clinical scenarios. Depending on the major clinical presentation, appropriateness of revascularization varied from 32% to 75% for individual scenarios (overal 48%). Uncertainty as to revascularization was 41% overall. When revascularization was appropriate, PTRA was favored over surgery in 94% of the scenarios, except in certain cases of aortic atheroma where sugery was the preferred choice. Kidney size [7 cm, absence of coexisting disease, acute renal failure, a high degree of stenosis (C70%), and absence of multiple arteries were identified as predictive variables of favorable appropriateness ratings. Situations such as cardiac failure with pulmonary edema or acute thrombosis of the renal artery were defined as indications for PTRA. This study identified clinical situations in which PTRA or surgery are appropriate for renal artery disease. We built a decision tree which can be used via Internet: the ANPARIA software (http://www.chu-clermontferrand.fr/anparia/). In numerous clinical situations uncertainty remains as to whether PTRA prevents deterioration of renal function.

Immune responses to JC virus in patients with multiple sclerosis treated with natalizumab: a cross-sectional and longitudinal study.

BACKGROUND: Natalizumab is used to prevent relapses and progression of disability in patients with multiple sclerosis but has been associated with progressive multifocal leukoencephalopathy (PML). We aimed to better understand the associations between JC virus, which causes PML, and natalizumab treatment. METHODS: We prospectively assessed patients with multiple sclerosis who started treatment with natalizumab. Blood and urine samples were tested for the presence of JC virus DNA with quantitative real-time PCR before treatment and at regular intervals after treatment onset for up to 18 months. At the same timepoints, by use of proliferation and enzyme-linked immunospot assays, the cellular immune responses against JC virus, Epstein-Barr virus, cytomegalovirus, myelin oligodendrocyte glycoprotein, and myelin oligodendrocyte basic protein (MOBP) were assessed. Humoral immune response specific to JC virus was assessed with an enzyme immunoassay. The same experiments were done on blood samples from patients with multiple sclerosis before and 10 months after the start of interferon beta treatment. FINDINGS: We assessed 24 patients with multiple sclerosis who received natalizumab and 16 who received interferon beta. In patients treated with natalizumab, JC virus DNA was not detected in the blood at any timepoint. However, JC virus DNA was present in the urine of six patients and in most of these patients the concentrations of JC virus DNA were stable over time. Compared with pretreatment values, the cellular immune response was increased to cytomegalovirus at 6 months, to JC virus at 1, 9, and 12 months, and to Epstein-Barr virus and MOBP at 12 months. Humoral responses remained stable. There were no increases in cellular immune responses specific to the viruses or myelin proteins in the 16 patients treated with interferon beta. INTERPRETATION: Natalizumab increases cellular immune responses specific to viruses and myelin proteins in the peripheral blood after 1 year, without evidence of viral reactivation. FUNDING: Swiss National Foundation, Swiss Society for Multiple Sclerosis, and Biogen Dompé.

Networks in Argentine agriculture: a multiple-case study approach

Argentina is among the four largest producers of soybeans, sunflower, corn, and wheat, among other agricultural products. Institutional and policy changes during the 1990s fostered the development of Argentine agriculture and the introduction of innovative process and product technologies (no-till, agrochemicals, GMO, GPS) and new investments in modern, large-scale sunflower and soybean processing plants. In addition to technological changes, a "quiet revolution" occurred in the way agricultural production was carried out and organized: from self-production or ownership agriculture to a contract-based agriculture. The objective of this paper is to explore and describe the emergence of networks in the Argentine crop production sector. The paper presents and describes four cases that currently represent about 50% of total grain and oilseed production in Argentina: "informal hybrid form", "agricultural trust fund", "investor-oriented corporate structure", and "network of networks". In all cases, hybrid forms involve a group of actors linked by common objectives, mainly to gain scale, share resources, and improve the profitability of the business. Informal contracts seem to be the most common way of organizing the agriculture process, but using short-term contracts and sequential interfirm collaboration. Networks of networks involve long-term relationships and social development, and reciprocal interfirm collaboration. Agricultural trust fund and investor-oriented corporate structures have combined interfirm collaboration and medium-term relationships. These organizational forms are highly flexible and show a great capacity to adapt to challenges; they are competitive because they enjoy aligned incentives, flexibility, and adaptability.

Effectiveness of glatiramer acetate compared to other multiple sclerosis therapies.

OBJECTIVE To assess the effectiveness of glatiramer acetate (GA) compared to other multiple sclerosis (MS) therapies in routine clinical practice. MATERIALS AND METHODS Observational cohort study carried out in MS patients treated with GA (GA cohort) or other MS therapies -switched from GA- (non-GA cohort). Study data were obtained through review of our MS patient database. The primary endpoint was the Expanded Disability Status Scale (EDSS) scores reached at the end of treatment/last check-up. RESULTS A total of 180 patients were included: GA cohort n = 120, non-GA cohort n = 60. Patients in the GA cohort showed better EDSS scores at the end of treatment/last check-up (mean ± SD, 2.8 ± 1.8 vs. 3.9 ± 2.2; P = 0.001) and were 1.65 times more likely to show better EDSS scores compared to the non-GA cohort (odds ratio, 0.606; 95%CI, 0.436-0.843; P = 0.003). Patients in the GA cohort showed longer mean time to reach EDSS scores of 6 (209.1 [95%CI, 187.6-230.6] vs. 164.3 [95% CI, 137.0-191.6] months; P = 0.004) and slower disability progression (hazard ratio, 0.415 [95%CI, 0.286-0.603]; P < 0.001). The annualized relapse rate was lower in the GA cohort (mean ± SD, 0.5 ± 0.5 vs. 0.8 ± 0.5; P = 0.001) and patients' quality of life was improved in this study cohort compared to the non-GA cohort (mean ± SD, 0.7 ± 0.1 vs. 0.6 ± 0.2; P = 0.01). CONCLUSIONS GA may slow down the progression of EDSS scores to a greater extent than other MS therapies, as well as achieving a greater reduction in relapses and a greater improvement in patients' quality of life. Switching from GA to other MS therapies has not proved to entail a better response to treatment.

Concentrations of the enantiomers of fluoxetine and norfluoxetine after multiple doses of fluoxetine in cytochrome P4502D6 poor and extensive metabolizers.

Plasma concentrations of the enantiomers of fluoxetine (FLX) and norfluoxetine (NFLX) were measured at days 7, 14, and 23 of oral administration of 20 mg of racemic fluoxetine in 11 patients who were comedicated with risperidone. Eight patients were genotyped as being cytochrome P4502D6 extensive metabolizers (EMs) and three as cytochrome P4502D6 poor metabolizers (PMs). No statistically significant differences were calculated between EMs and PMs in the concentrations of (R)-FLX and (R)-NFLX for all days examined (day 23, mean +/- SD for (R)-FLX and (R)-NFLX in EMs, 16 +/- 5 and 29 +/- 20 ng/mL, respectively; in PMs, 16 +/- 1 and 20 +/- 2 ng/mL, respectively). However, concentrations of (S)-FLX and (S)-NFLX were higher and lower, respectively, in PMs as compared with EMs (day 7, p = 0.037 and p = 0.036; day 14, p = 0.014 and p = 0.014; day 23, p = 0.068 and p = 0.038). On day 23, mean (S)-FLX and (S)-NFLX in EMs were (mean +/- SD) 39 +/- 26 and 63 +/- 26 ng/mL, and in PMs they were 88 +/- 7 and 19 +/- 2 ng/mL. This study confirms the results of the single-dose studies showing that CYP2D6 is involved in the demethylation of FLX to NFLX, with a stereoselectivity toward the (S)-enantiomer. The data also clearly show that the CYP2D6 genotype has an important influence on the concentrations of the (S)- but not of the (R)-enantiomer of FLX and NFLX after multiple doses.

Information overload, choice deferral, and moderating role of need for cognition: Empirical evidence

ABSTRACT Choice deferral due to information overload is an undesirable result of competitive environments. The neoclassical maximization models predict that choice avoidance will not increase as more information is offered to consumers. The theories developed in the consumer behavior field predict that some properties of the environment may lead to behavioral effects and an increase in choice avoidance due to information overload. Based on stimuli generated experimentally and tested among 1,000 consumers, this empirical research provides evidence for the presence of behavioral effects due to information overload and reveals the different effects of increasing the number of options or the number of attributes. This study also finds that the need for cognition moderates these behavioral effects, and it proposes psychological processes that may trigger the effects observed.

Excision of the Staphylococcal Cassette Chromosome mec (SCCmec) and its crucial role in the horizontal transfer of methicillin resistance in staphylococci.

Staphylococcus aureus est un pathogène humain majeur ayant développé des résistances contre la quasi totalité des antibiotiques disponibles, incluant la très importante famille des β- lactamines. La résistance à cette classe d'antibiotiques est conférée par la « Staphylococcal Cassette Chromosome mec » (SCCmec), qui est un élément génétique mobile capable de s'insérer dans le chromosome bactérien et capable d'être transféré horizontalement chez d'autres staphylocoques. Le mécanisme moléculaire impliqué dans ce transfert horizontal demeure largement inconnu. L'une des premières étapes du transfert est l'excision du SCC mec du chromosome bactérien. Cette excision est promue par des enzymes codées par l'élément SCCmec lui- même et appelées de ce fait « Cassette Chromosome Recombinases » (Ccr). L'un des buts de ce travail de thèse a été de comprendre la régulation de l'expression des gènes codant pour les Ccr recombinases. En utilisant des outils moléculaires originaux, nous avons été en mesure de démontrer en premier lieu que les Ccr recombinases étaient exprimées de façon « bistable », c'est à dire qu'uniquement quelques pourcents de cellules dans une population exprimaient ces gènes à un temps donné. Dans un deuxième temps, nous avons également démontré que l'expression de ces gènes était régulée par des facteurs étrangers au SCC mec. L'expression bistable des recombinases est un concept important. Effectivement, cela permet à la majorité des cellules d'une population de conserver l'élément SCC mec, alors que seulement une petite fraction le perd afin de le rendre disponible pour un transfert. Ainsi, alors que l'élément SCC mec continue de se propager avec la multiplication des bactéries Staphylococcus aureus résistant à la méticilline (SARM), il peut être simultanément transmis à des souches susceptibles (Staphylococcus aureus susceptible à la méticilline, SASM), entraînant l'apparition de nouveaux SARM. De façon très intéressante, le fait que cette bistabilité est contrôlée par les bactéries, et non le SCCmec lui-même, montre que la décision de transférer ou non la cassette SCC mec appartient à la bactérie. En conséquence, il doit exister dans la nature des souches qui sont plus ou moins aptes à effectuer ce transfert. En nous appuyant sur ces observations, nous avons montré que l'excision du SCC mec était effectivement régulée de façon très étroite au cours de la division cellulaire, et ne se passait que pendant un temps limité au début de la croissance. Ce résultat est compatible avec une régulation génétique commandée par la densité cellulaire, qui pourrait être dépendante de la production de signaux extracellulaires, du type que l'on rencontre dans le quorum sensing. Les signaux hypothétiques entraînant l'excision du SCC mec restent inconnus à l'heure actuelle. La connaissance de ces signaux pourrait se révéler très importante afin de développer des stratégies pour interférer avec la dissémination de la résistance au β-lactamines. Deux sujets additionnels ont été logiquement investigués au vu de ces premiers résultats. Premièrement, si certaines souches de SARM sont plus ou moins aptes à déclencher l'excision du SCC mec, de même certaines souches de SASM devraient être plus ou moins aptes à acquérir cet élément. Deuxièmement, afin d'étudier ces mécanismes de transfert au niveau épidémiologique, il nous a été nécessaire de développer des outils nous permettant d'explorer le phénomène à une plus large échelle. Concernant le premier point, il a été postulé que certains SASM seraient réfractaires à l'intégration génomique d'un SCC mec en raison de polymorphismes particuliers à proximité du site d'insertion chromosomique (attB). En étudiant plus de 40 isolais de S. aureus, provenant de porteurs sains, nous avons confirmé ce polymorphisme dans l'environnement à'attB. De plus, nous avons pu montrer que ces régions polymorphiques ont évolué parallèlement à des groupes phylogénétiques bien connus. Ainsi, si des telles régions réfractaires à l'intégration de SCC mec existent, celles-ci devraient ségréger dans des complexes clonaux bien définis qui devraient être facilement identifiables au niveau épidémiologique. Concernant le second point, nous avons été capables de construire un système rapporteur de l'excision du SCCmec, en utilisant un plasmide à faible copie. Ce système consistait en un promoteur fort et un gène codant pour une protéine verte fluorescente (GFP) sous le contrôle d'un promoteur fort séparés à l'aide d'un élément SCC artificiel portant trois terminateurs de transcription. Ainsi, la fluorescence ne s'exprime que si l'élément SCC est excisé du plasmide. Ce système a été testé avec succès dans plusieurs types de staphylocoques, et est actuellement évalué dans d'autres souches et conditions stimulant ou inhibant l'excision. De manière générale, cette dissertation représente parcours scientifique à travers plusieurs aspects d'un problème de santé publique majeur en rapport avec la résistance bactérienne aux antibiotiques. Ce travail s'attaque à des problèmes fondamentaux concernant le transfert horizontal de l'élément SCC mec. De plus, il s'intéresse à des aspects plus généraux de cet élément génétique mobile qui pourraient se révéler très importants en terme de mouvement de gènes au sein des staphylocoques, voir d'autres bactéries gram-positives. Finalement ce travail de thèse met en place le fondamentaux requis pour des recherches futures visant à interférer avec le transfert horizontal de la résistance aux β-lactamines. - Staphylococcus aureus is a major human pathogen. Moreover, S. aureus have developed resistance to almost all available antibiotics, including the important family of β-lactam molecules. Intrinsic resistance to β-lactams is conferred by the Staphylococcal Cassette Chromosome mec (SCCmec), which is a mobile genomic island that inserts into the staphylococcal chromosome and can be horizontally transferred into other staphylococci. However, little is known about the molecular mechanisms involved in this horizontal transfer into naïve strains. One of the first steps in SCC mec horizontal transfer is its excision from the chromosome. Excision is mediated by recombinase enzymes that are encoded by SCC mec itself, and named accordingly Ccr recombinases - for Cassette Chromosome recombinases. One goal of this thesis was to understand the regulation these recombinase genes. By using original molecular tools we could demonstrate first that the Ccr recombinases were expressed in a "bistable" manner, i.e. in only few percentages of the bacterial cells at a given time, and second that they were regulated by determinants that were not encoded on the SCC mec element, but elsewhere on the staphylococcal genome. "Bistable" expression Ccr recombinases is an important concept. It allows SCC mec to be excised and thus available for horizontal transfer, while ensuring that only some cells, but not the whole population, loose their valuable SCC mec genes. Thus, while the SCC mec element expands with the multiplication of the MRSA colony, it can simultaneously be transmitted into methicillin-susceptible S. aureus (MSSA), which convert into new MRSA. Most interestingly, the fact that bistability was regulated by the cells, rather than by SCC mec, indicates that it was the choice of the bacteria to trigger or not SCC mec transfer. As a consequence, there must be, in nature, staphylococcal strains that are more or less prone to sustain SCC mec transfer. Following these seminal observations we found that excision was indeed tightly regulated during bacterial division, and occurred only during a limited period of time at the beginning of bacterial growth. This is compatible with cell-density mediated gene regulation, and may depend on the production of extracellular signal molecules that transmit appropriate orders to neighboring cells, such as in quorum sensing. The potential signal triggering SCCmec excision is as yet unknown. However, it could be critical in promoting the horizontal transfer of methicillin resistance, or for the possible development of means to interfere with it. Two additional hypothesis were logically investigated in the view of these first results. First, if some strains of MRSA might be more prone than others to promote SCC mec excision, then some strains of MS SA might be more or less prone to acquire the element as well. Second, to investigate these multiple mechanisms at an epidemiological level, one would need to develop tools amenable to explore S. aureus strains at a larger scale. Regarding the first issue, it was postulated by others that some MSSA might be refractory to SCC mec integration because they had peculiar DNA polymorphisms in the vicinity of the site-specific chromosomal entry point {attB) of SCC mec. By studying >40 S. aureus isolates from healthy carriers, we confirmed the polymorphism of the attB environment. Moreover, we could show that these polymorphic regions co-evolved with well-known phylogenic clonal clusters. Therefore, if SCCwec-refractory attB environments exist, then they would segregate in well- defined S. aureus clonal clusters that would be easy to identify at the epidemiological level. Regarding the second issue, we were able to construct a new excision reporter system in a low copy number S. aureus plasmid. The reporter system consists in a strong promoter driving a green fluorescent protein {gfp) gene, separated by an artificial SCC-like element carrying three transcriptional terminators. Thus, fluorescence is not expressed unless the SCC-like element is excised. The system has been successfully tested in several aureus and non- aureus staphylococci, and is now being applied to more strains and various excision- triggering or inhibiting conditions. Altogether the dissertation is a scientific journey through various aspects of a salient medical problem with regard to antibiotic resistance and public health threat. The research work tackles fundamental issues about the mechanisms of horizontal transfer of the SCC mec element. Moreover, it also addresses more general features of this mobile element, which could be of larger importance with regard to gene trafficking in staphylococci, and maybe other gram-positive bacteria. Finally, the dissertation sets the fundamentals for future work and possible new ways to interfere with the horizontal transfer of methicillin resistance.

Health-related quality of life assessment in people with multiple sclerosis and their family caregivers. A multicenter study in Catalonia (Southern Europe)

Objectives: To measure the health-related quality of life (HRQoL) of multiple sclerosis (MS) patients and their caregivers, and to assess which factors can best describe HRQoL. Methods: A cross-sectional multicenter study of nine hospitals enrolled MS patients and their caregivers who attended outpatient clinics consecutively. The instruments used were the SF-36 for patients and the SF-12 and GHQ-12 for caregivers. Classification and regression tree analysis was used to analyze the explanatory factors of HRQoL. Results: A total of 705 patients (mean age 40.4 years, median Expanded Disability Status Scale 2.5, 77.8% with relapsing-remitting MS) and 551 caregivers (mean age 45.4 years) participated in the study. MS patients had significantly lower HRQoL than in the general population (physical SF-36: 39.9; 95% confidence interval [CI]: 39.1–40.6; mental SF-36: 44.4; 95% CI: 43.5–45.3). Caregivers also presented lower HRQoL than general population, especially in its mental domain (mental SF-12: 46.4; 95% CI: 45.5–47.3). Moreover, according to GHQ-12, 27% of caregivers presented probable psychological distress. Disability and co-morbidity in patients, and co-morbidity and employment status in caregivers, were the most important explanatory factors of their HRQoL. Conclusions: Not only the HRQoL of patients with MS, but also that of their caregivers, is indeed notably affected. Caregivers’ HRQoL is close to population of chronic illness even that the patients sample has a mild clinical severity and that caregiving role is a usual task in the study context

Metacognitive training for adolescents with psychosis: A multiple case study

Cognitive biases may be one of the explaining factor underlying psychotic symptoms like delusions and hallucinations. Metacognitive training (MCT) was demonstrated, in adults with schizophrenia, to reduce these cognitive biases. However, to the best of our knowledge, there has been no research on adolescents with psychosis. The current study aimed at assessing the feasibility, treatment adherence and its benefi cial effects on psychotic symptoms, depression, social functioning and self-esteem of a MCT. Participants were fi ve psychotic adolescents with psychosis, aged 16-18, who attended the Day Care Unit for Adolescents (DCUA). The MCT, delivered in group, corresponds to 2x8 modules, lasting between 45 and 60 minutes once a week. To measure MCT's effi ciency, the Positive And Negative Syndrome Scale (PANSS), the Social and Occupational Functioning Assessment Scale (SOFAS), the Health of Nation Outcome Scale for Children and Adolescent (HoNOSCA), the depression scale of Calgary and the self-esteem scale of Rosenberg have been used. The results of the 5 patients indicate that MCT is feasible and the treatment adherence is moderate. The schedule of the MCT needs to be adapted to the availability of the participants. At a descriptive level, the MCT allows to reduce psychotic and depressive symptoms (PANSS & Calgary) as well as to improve the social functioning (SOFAS & HoNOSCA) and self-esteem (Rosenberg). To sum up, MCT seem to be an interesting alternative and/or a good additional treatment to reduce cognitive bias, psychotic symptoms as well as improving social functioning

NLRP3 inflammasome activation: The convergence of multiple signalling pathways on ROS production?

The NLR family, pyrin domain-containing 3 (NLRP3) inflammasome is a multiprotein complex that activates caspase 1, leading to the processing and secretion of the pro-inflammatory cytokines interleukin-1beta (IL-1beta) and IL-18. The NLRP3 inflammasome is activated by a wide range of danger signals that derive not only from microorganisms but also from metabolic dysregulation. It is unclear how these highly varied stress signals can be detected by a single inflammasome. In this Opinion article, we review the different signalling pathways that have been proposed to engage the NLRP3 inflammasome and suggest a model in which one of the crucial elements for NLRP3 activation is the generation of reactive oxygen species (ROS).

Prediction and discrimination of osteoporotic hip fracture in postmenopausal women.

Osteoporotic hip fractures increase dramatically with age and are responsible for considerable morbidity and mortality. Several treatments to prevent the occurrence of hip fracture have been validated in large randomized trials and the current challenge is to improve the identification of individuals at high risk of fracture who would benefit from therapeutic or preventive intervention. We have performed an exhaustive literature review on hip fracture predictors, focusing primarily on clinical risk factors, dual X-ray absorptiometry (DXA), quantitative ultrasound, and bone markers. This review is based on original articles and meta-analyses. We have selected studies that aim both to predict the risk of hip fracture and to discriminate individuals with or without fracture. We have included only postmenopausal women in our review. For studies involving both men and women, only results concerning women have been considered. Regarding clinical factors, only prospective studies have been taken into account. Predictive factors have been used as stand-alone tools to predict hip fracture or sequentially through successive selection processes or by combination into risk scores. There is still much debate as to whether or not the combination of these various parameters, as risk scores or as sequential or concurrent combinations, could help to better predict hip fracture. There are conflicting results on whether or not such combinations provide improvement over each method alone. Sequential combination of bone mineral density and ultrasound parameters might be cost-effective compared with DXA alone, because of fewer bone mineral density measurements. However, use of multiple techniques may increase costs. One problem that precludes comparison of most published studies is that they use either relative risk, or absolute risk, or sensitivity and specificity. The absolute risk of individuals given their risk factors and bone assessment results would be a more appropriate model for decision-making than relative risk. Currently, a group appointed by the World Health Organization and lead by Professor John Kanis is working on such a model. It will therefore be possible to further assess the best choice of threshold to optimize the number of women needed to screen for each country and each treatment.