Generalization transitions in Hidden-Layer neural networks for third-order feature discrimination

Stochastic learning processes for a specific feature detector are studied. This technique is applied to nonsmooth multilayer neural networks requested to perform a discrimination task of order 3 based on the ssT-block¿ssC-block problem. Our system proves to be capable of achieving perfect generalization, after presenting finite numbers of examples, by undergoing a phase transition. The corresponding annealed theory, which involves the Ising model under external field, shows good agreement with Monte Carlo simulations.

Estudo da dose nos exames de tomografia computadorizada abdominal em um equipamento de 6 cortes

OBJETIVO: Determinar a dose efetiva recebida nos exames de tomografia computadorizada abdominal e estudar a influência das características dos pacientes na dose recebida. MATERIAIS E MÉTODOS: Foram realizadas medições dos valores de dose com uma câmara de ionização em objetos simuladores, de forma a verificar se os valores obtidos estavam de acordo com os valores apresentados pelo equipamento de tomografia computadorizada e se estes não ultrapassavam os níveis de referência de dose recomendados. Posteriormente, foram medidos os valores de dose recebida pelos pacientes, com autonomia física, nos exames de tomografia computadorizada abdominal (n = 100) e a relação existente com as suas características antropométricas. Por último, foi simulada a dose nos órgãos por meio do método de Monte Carlo utilizando o software de simulação CT-Expo V 1.5, e estudado o efeito do controle automático de exposição nestes exames. RESULTADOS: As principiais características com influência direta na dose são a massa corporal, o perímetro abdominal e o índice de massa corporal do paciente, cuja relação é linear e positiva. CONCLUSÃO: A dose de radiação recebida nos exames abdominais depende de algumas características dos pacientes, sendo importante ajustar os parâmetros de aquisição às suas dimensões.

A web-based tool to aid the identification of chemicals potentially posing a health risk through percutaneous exposure

Occupational hygiene practitioners typically assess the risk posed by occupational exposure by comparing exposure measurements to regulatory occupational exposure limits (OELs). In most jurisdictions, OELs are only available for exposure by the inhalation pathway. Skin notations are used to indicate substances for which dermal exposure may lead to health effects. However, these notations are either present or absent and provide no indication of acceptable levels of exposure. Furthermore, the methodology and framework for assigning skin notation differ widely across jurisdictions resulting in inconsistencies in the substances that carry notations. The UPERCUT tool was developed in response to these limitations. It helps occupational health stakeholders to assess the hazard associated with dermal exposure to chemicals. UPERCUT integrates dermal quantitative structure-activity relationships (QSARs) and toxicological data to provide users with a skin hazard index called the dermal hazard ratio (DHR) for the substance and scenario of interest. The DHR is the ratio between the estimated 'received' dose and the 'acceptable' dose. The 'received' dose is estimated using physico-chemical data and information on the exposure scenario provided by the user (body parts exposure and exposure duration), and the 'acceptable' dose is estimated using inhalation OELs and toxicological data. The uncertainty surrounding the DHR is estimated with Monte Carlo simulation. Additional information on the selected substances includes intrinsic skin permeation potential of the substance and the existence of skin notations. UPERCUT is the only available tool that estimates the absorbed dose and compares this to an acceptable dose. In the absence of dermal OELs it provides a systematic and simple approach for screening dermal exposure scenarios for 1686 substances.

Aplicativo para dosimetria interna usando a distribuição biocinética de fótons baseada em imagens de medicina nuclear

Objetivo: Este artigo apresenta uma forma de se obterem estimativas de dose em pacientes submetidos a tratamentos radioterápicos a partir da análise das regiões de interesse em imagens de medicina nuclear. Materiais e Métodos: Foi desenvolvido o software denominado DoRadIo (Dosimetria das Radiações Ionizantes), que recebe as informações sobre os órgãos fontes e o órgão alvo e retorna resultados gráficos e numéricos. As imagens de medicina nuclear utilizadas foram obtidas de catálogos disponibilizados por físicos médicos. Nas simulações utilizaram-se modelos computacionais de exposição constituídos por fantomas de voxels acoplados ao código Monte Carlo EGSnrc. O software foi desenvolvido no Microsoft Visual Studio 2010 com o modelo de projeto Windows Presentation Foundation e a linguagem de programação C#. Resultados: Da aplicação das ferramentas foram obtidos: o arquivo para otimização das simulações Monte Carlo utilizando o EGSnrc, a organização e compactação dos resultados dosimétricos com todas as fontes, a seleção das regiões de interesse, a contagem da intensidade dos tons de cinza nas regiões de interesse, o arquivo das fontes ponderadas e, finalmente, todos os resultados gráficos e numéricos. Conclusão: A interface de usuários pode ser adaptada para uso em clínicas de medicina nuclear como ferramenta computacional auxiliar na estimativa da atividade administrada.

Balloon-based adjuvant radiotherapy in breast cancer: comparison between 99mTc and HDR 192Ir

Abstract Objective: To perform a comparative dosimetric analysis, based on computer simulations, of temporary balloon implants with 99mTc and balloon brachytherapy with high-dose-rate (HDR) 192Ir, as boosts to radiotherapy. We hypothesized that the two techniques would produce equivalent doses under pre-established conditions of activity and exposure time. Materials and Methods: Simulations of implants with 99mTc-filled and HDR 192Ir-filled balloons were performed with the Siscodes/MCNP5, modeling in voxels a magnetic resonance imaging set related to a young female. Spatial dose rate distributions were determined. In the dosimetric analysis of the protocols, the exposure time and the level of activity required were specified. Results: The 99mTc balloon presented a weighted dose rate in the tumor bed of 0.428 cGy.h-1.mCi-1 and 0.190 cGyh-1.mCi-1 at the balloon surface and at 8-10 mm from the surface, respectively, compared with 0.499 and 0.150 cGyh-1.mCi-1, respectively, for the HDR 192Ir balloon. An exposure time of 24 hours was required for the 99mTc balloon to produce a boost of 10.14 Gy with 1.0 Ci, whereas only 24 minutes with 10.0 Ci segments were required for the HDR 192Ir balloon to produce a boost of 5.14 Gy at the same reference point, or 10.28 Gy in two 24-minutes fractions. Conclusion: Temporary 99mTc balloon implantation is an attractive option for adjuvant radiotherapy in breast cancer, because of its availability, economic viability, and similar dosimetry in comparison with the use of HDR 192Ir balloon implantation, which is the current standard in clinical practice.

Modeling reaction kinetics and mass transfer in ozonation in water solutions

This dissertation is based on four articles dealing with modeling of ozonation. The literature part of this considers some models for hydrodynamics in bubble column simulation. A literature review of methods for obtaining mass transfer coefficients is presented. The methods presented to obtain mass transfer are general models and can be applied to any gas-liquid system. Ozonation reaction models and methods for obtaining stoichiometric coefficients and reaction rate coefficients for ozonation reactions are discussed in the final section of the literature part. In the first article, ozone gas-liquid mass transfer into water in a bubble column was investigated for different pH values. A more general method for estimation of mass transfer and Henry’s coefficient was developed from the Beltrán method. The ozone volumetric mass transfer coefficient and the Henry’s coefficient were determined simultaneously by parameter estimation using a nonlinear optimization method. A minor dependence of the Henry’s law constant on pH was detected at the pH range 4 - 9. In the second article, a new method using the axial dispersion model for estimation of ozone self-decomposition kinetics in a semi-batch bubble column reactor was developed. The reaction rate coefficients for literature equations of ozone decomposition and the gas phase dispersion coefficient were estimated and compared with the literature data. The reaction order in the pH range 7-10 with respect to ozone 1.12 and 0.51 the hydroxyl ion were obtained, which is in good agreement with literature. The model parameters were determined by parameter estimation using a nonlinear optimization method. Sensitivity analysis was conducted using object function method to obtain information about the reliability and identifiability of the estimated parameters. In the third article, the reaction rate coefficients and the stoichiometric coefficients in the reaction of ozone with the model component p-nitrophenol were estimated at low pH of water using nonlinear optimization. A novel method for estimation of multireaction model parameters in ozonation was developed. In this method the concentration of unknown intermediate compounds is presented as a residual COD (chemical oxygen demand) calculated from the measured COD and the theoretical COD for the known species. The decomposition rate of p-nitrophenol on the pathway producing hydroquinone was found to be about two times faster than the p-nitrophenol decomposition rate on the pathway producing 4- nitrocatechol. In the fourth article, the reaction kinetics of p-nitrophenol ozonation was studied in a bubble column at pH 2. Using the new reaction kinetic model presented in the previous article, the reaction kinetic parameters, rate coefficients, and stoichiometric coefficients as well as the mass transfer coefficient were estimated with nonlinear estimation. The decomposition rate of pnitrophenol was found to be equal both on the pathway producing hydroquinone and on the path way producing 4-nitrocathecol. Comparison of the rate coefficients with the case at initial pH 5 indicates that the p-nitrophenol degradation producing 4- nitrocathecol is more selective towards molecular ozone than the reaction producing hydroquinone. The identifiability and reliability of the estimated parameters were analyzed with the Marcov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) method. @All rights reserved. No part of the publication may be reproduced, stored in a retrieval system, or transmitted, in any form or by any means, electronic, mechanical, photocopying, recording, or otherwise, without the prior permission of the author.

A correlation sensitivity analysis of non-life underwriting risk in solvency capital requirement estimation

This paper analyses the impact of using different correlation assumptions between lines of business when estimating the risk-based capital reserve, the Solvency Capital Requirement -SCR-, under Solvency II regulations. A case study is presented and the SCR is calculated according to the Standard Model approach. Alternatively, the requirement is then calculated using an Internal Model based on a Monte Carlo simulation of the net underwriting result at a one-year horizon, with copulas being used to model the dependence between lines of business. To address the impact of these model assumptions on the SCR we conduct a sensitivity analysis. We examine changes in the correlation matrix between lines of business and address the choice of copulas. Drawing on aggregate historical data from the Spanish non-life insurance market between 2000 and 2009, we conclude that modifications of the correlation and dependence assumptions have a significant impact on SCR estimation.

Statistical Analysis of an SEIR Epidemic Model

This thesis was focussed on statistical analysis methods and proposes the use of Bayesian inference to extract information contained in experimental data by estimating Ebola model parameters. The model is a system of differential equations expressing the behavior and dynamics of Ebola. Two sets of data (onset and death data) were both used to estimate parameters, which has not been done by previous researchers in (Chowell, 2004). To be able to use both data, a new version of the model has been built. Model parameters have been estimated and then used to calculate the basic reproduction number and to study the disease-free equilibrium. Estimates of the parameters were useful to determine how well the model fits the data and how good estimates were, in terms of the information they provided about the possible relationship between variables. The solution showed that Ebola model fits the observed onset data at 98.95% and the observed death data at 93.6%. Since Bayesian inference can not be performed analytically, the Markov chain Monte Carlo approach has been used to generate samples from the posterior distribution over parameters. Samples have been used to check the accuracy of the model and other characteristics of the target posteriors.

Estudo da geometria da uréia por métodos ab initio e simulação computacional de líquidos

A study was carried out on the urea geometries using ab initio calculation and Monte Carlo computational simulation of liquids. The ab initio calculated results showed that urea has a non-planar conformation in the gas phase in which the hydrogen atoms are out of the plane formed by the heavy atoms. Free energies associated to the rotation of the amino groups of urea in water were obtained using the Monte Carlo method in which the thermodynamic perturbation theory is implemented. The magnitude of the free energy obtained from this simulation did not permit us to conclude that urea is non-planar in water.

Hintariskienhallinta pitkäaikaisissa urakoissa

Pitkäaikaisten rakennusurakoiden tarjouslaskennassa on ennakoitava hintojen muutoksia useiden vuosien päähän, kun tarjoukset on tehtävä kiinteillä hinnoilla. Kustannusten ennakointi ja hintariskienhallinta on kriittinen tekijä rakennusalan yrityksen kilpailukyvylle. Tämän tutkielman tavoitteena on kehittää YIT Rakennus Oy:n Infrapalveluille toimintamalli ja työkalu, joiden avulla hintariskejä voidaan hallita tarjouslaskennassa sekä hankintatoimessa. Ratkaisuksi kehitettiin kustannusten ennakointi -malli, jossa panosryhmien hintojen kehitystä ennustetaan asiantuntijaryhmissä säännöllisesti. Kustannusten ennakointi -mallin käyttöönotto vaatii ennustettavien panosryhmien määrittelyä. Lisäksi on nimettävä asiantuntijaryhmä sekä valittava aikajänne, jolle ennuste tehdään. Ennusteisiin sisältyvä epävarmuus saadaan esiin Monte Carlo simulaatiolla, ja urakan hintariskiä voidaan siten arvioida todennäköisyysjakaumien ja herkkyysanalyysin avulla. Valmiita ennusteita hyödynnetään tarjouslaskennassa sekä hankintatoimessa taktiikoiden ja strategioiden valinnassa.

Hankintaprosessin suorituskyvyn arviointi ja kehittäminen

Tämän työn tarkoituksena oli tarkastella kohdeorganisaation hankintaprosessin suorituskykyä. Tutkimuksen päämääränä oli tuottaa yritykselle sellaista tietoa ja arviointikriteerejä, joiden avulla yritys voi kehittää valmiuksiaan oman suorituskyvyn tehokkaampaan arviointiin tulevaisuudessa. Tutkielma tehtiin Skanska Oy:n osto-osastolle Helsinkiin. Tutkimuksen kohteeksi valittiin kausisopimusten hankintaprosessi epäsuorissa hankinnoissa, kotimaisilla markkinoilla. Keskitetyn kausisopimusten hankintaprosessin tarkoituksena on tuottaa yritykselle kilpailukykyisiä sopimuksia sekä saavuttaa prosessin parempi hallinta ja läpinäkyvyys. Tietoa tutkimuksen kohteena olevasta prosessista kerättiin haastatteluilla ja keskustelutuokioilla sekä yrityksen dokumenteista. Aineiston keräämisen kautta pyrittiin saamaan syvempi kuva prosessin toiminnasta, sen ongelmakohdista sekä niiden syistä ja seurauksista. Toisen tarkastelunäkökulman prosessin arvioinnille tarjosi läpimenoajan mittaaminen. Saatua aineistoa luokiteltiin vika- ja vaikutusanalyysiin pohjautuvalla mallilla sekä Monte Carlo – simulaatiomenetelmään perustuvalla ohjelmalla. Työn tuloksena esitetään tutkimuksen kohteena olevalle prosessille sopivia kehitystoimenpiteitä sekä suositeltavia prosessin mittaamisalueita.

Multicointegration, polynomial cointegration and I(2) cointegration with structural breaks. An application to the sustainability of the US external deficit

In this paper we model the multicointegration relation, allowing for one structural break. Since multicointegration is a particular case of polynomial or I(2) cointegration, our proposal can also be applied in these cases. The paper proposes the use of a residualbased Dickey-Fuller class of statistic that accounts for one known or unknown structural break. Finite sample performance of the proposed statistic is investigated by using Monte Carlo simulations, which reveals that the statistic shows good properties in terms of empirical size and power. We complete the study with an empirical application of the sustainability of the US external deficit. Contrary to existing evidence, the consideration of one structural break leads to conclude in favour of the sustainability of the US external deficit.

O método das trajectórias clássicas: colisões coplanares do tipo A+BC

The general methodology of classical trajectories as applied to elementary chemical reactions of the A+BC type is presented. The goal is to elucidate students about the main theoretical features and potentialities in applying this versatile method to calculate the dynamical properties of reactive systems. Only the methodology for two-dimensional (2D) case is described, from which the general theory for 3D follows straightforwardly. The adopted point of view is, as much as possible, that of allowing a direct translation of the concepts into a working program. An application to the reaction O(¹D)+H2->O+OH with relevance in atmospheric chemistry is also presented. The FORTRAN codes used are available through the web page www.qqesc.qui.uc.pt.

Local noise analysis of a Schottky contact: combined thermionic-emissiondiffusion theory

A theoretical model for the noise properties of Schottky barrier diodes in the framework of the thermionic-emission¿diffusion theory is presented. The theory incorporates both the noise inducedby the diffusion of carriers through the semiconductor and the noise induced by the thermionicemission of carriers across the metal¿semiconductor interface. Closed analytical formulas arederived for the junction resistance, series resistance, and contributions to the net noise localized indifferent space regions of the diode, all valid in the whole range of applied biases. An additionalcontribution to the voltage-noise spectral density is identified, whose origin may be traced back tothe cross correlation between the voltage-noise sources associated with the junction resistance andthose for the series resistance. It is argued that an inclusion of the cross-correlation term as a newelement in the existing equivalent circuit models of Schottky diodes could explain the discrepanciesbetween these models and experimental measurements or Monte Carlo simulations.