Novos modelos previdenciários na América Latina: lições da experiência Argentina

New pension programs in Latin America: lessons from the Argentinean experience. This work analyzes the political constraints of pension reform in Argentina. The first part presents a brief description of the development of pension programs in Latin America. Additionally, it also discusses the pension system crisis and the main proposals in order to overcome this crisis. The second part examines the peculiarities of the Argentine pension reform, with specific attention on economic imperatives and political constraints which have shaped the pension reform project of Menem´s Government (1989-1999). The article demonstrates that there are a large gap between the new system promises and its outcomes.

Ciência econômica e modelos de explicação científica: retomando a questão

Economic science and scientific explanation models. Economics was born under the sign of methodological vagueness. The first author who tried to solve the question (John Stuart Mill) asserted that it is a kind of knowledge that uses the abstract (direct deductive) method but also that it is an exception because for all other phenomena in the field of moral science the correct method is the inverse deductive or historical method. On the other side, functionalist explanations that are condemned by the scientific precepts of economics are present in the science since its beginning with Adam Smith. Economics went ahead without worriment about these methodological issues but this indefiniteness has never gone off stage. Since the start of XXI century new facts are emerging. Developments in Psychology are giving a new breath to Friedman's point of view and seem to fortify the mainstream (Rogebert e Nordberg, 2005), whereas unfolding in complexity science promises to throw it down and put in its place another kind of explanation borrowed from Biology (Beinhocker, 2006). All this stimulates to retake the question. We do this here, under a critical vision, taking the taxonomy of scientific explanations framed by modern positivism.

PERFORMANCE ANALYSIS OF A TACTICAL ASSET ALLOCATION – Evidence from the Black–Litterman model based fixed income portfolio

Over time the demand for quantitative portfolio management has increased among financial institutions but there is still a lack of practical tools. In 2008 EDHEC Risk and Asset Management Research Centre conducted a survey of European investment practices. It revealed that the majority of asset or fund management companies, pension funds and institutional investors do not use more sophisticated models to compensate the flaws of the Markowitz mean-variance portfolio optimization. Furthermore, tactical asset allocation managers employ a variety of methods to estimate return and risk of assets, but also need sophisticated portfolio management models to outperform their benchmarks. Recent development in portfolio management suggests that new innovations are slowly gaining ground, but still need to be studied carefully. This thesis tries to provide a practical tactical asset allocation (TAA) application to the Black–Litterman (B–L) approach and unbiased evaluation of B–L models’ qualities. Mean-variance framework, issues related to asset allocation decisions and return forecasting are examined carefully to uncover issues effecting active portfolio management. European fixed income data is employed in an empirical study that tries to reveal whether a B–L model based TAA portfolio is able outperform its strategic benchmark. The tactical asset allocation utilizes Vector Autoregressive (VAR) model to create return forecasts from lagged values of asset classes as well as economic variables. Sample data (31.12.1999–31.12.2012) is divided into two. In-sample data is used for calibrating a strategic portfolio and the out-of-sample period is for testing the tactical portfolio against the strategic benchmark. Results show that B–L model based tactical asset allocation outperforms the benchmark portfolio in terms of risk-adjusted return and mean excess return. The VAR-model is able to pick up the change in investor sentiment and the B–L model adjusts portfolio weights in a controlled manner. TAA portfolio shows promise especially in moderately shifting allocation to more risky assets while market is turning bullish, but without overweighting investments with high beta. Based on findings in thesis, Black–Litterman model offers a good platform for active asset managers to quantify their views on investments and implement their strategies. B–L model shows potential and offers interesting research avenues. However, success of tactical asset allocation is still highly dependent on the quality of input estimates.

Economic capital allocation

For my Licentiate thesis, I conducted research on risk measures. Continuing with this research, I now focus on capital allocation. In the proportional capital allocation principle, the choice of risk measure plays a very important part. In the chapters Introduction and Basic concepts, we introduce three definitions of economic capital, discuss the purpose of capital allocation, give different viewpoints of capital allocation and present an overview of relevant literature. Risk measures are defined and the concept of coherent risk measure is introduced. Examples of important risk measures are given, e. g., Value at Risk (VaR), Tail Value at Risk (TVaR). We also discuss the implications of dependence and review some important distributions. In the following chapter on Capital allocation we introduce different principles for allocating capital. We prefer to work with the proportional allocation method. In the following chapter, Capital allocation based on tails, we focus on insurance business lines with heavy-tailed loss distribution. To emphasize capital allocation based on tails, we define the following risk measures: Conditional Expectation, Upper Tail Covariance and Tail Covariance Premium Adjusted (TCPA). In the final chapter, called Illustrative case study, we simulate two sets of data with five insurance business lines using Normal copulas and Cauchy copulas. The proportional capital allocation is calculated using TCPA as risk measure. It is compared with the result when VaR is used as risk measure and with covariance capital allocation. In this thesis, it is emphasized that no single allocation principle is perfect for all purposes. When focusing on the tail of losses, the allocation based on TCPA is a good one, since TCPA in a sense includes features of TVaR and Tail covariance.

Instituições e crescimento econômico: os modelos teóricos de Thorstein Veblen e Douglass North

Institutions and economic growth: The theoretical models of Thorstein Veblen and Douglass North. The aim of this work is to analyse the role of institutions in the economical growing. It searches for propose two theoretical models that explain the development, one is according to Thorstein Veblen and the other one is based on Douglass North. Thus, it summarises and compares the effects of the institutions growing and at the same time emphasizes the deviations and approximation on both theoretical chain. Beside the differences still exist, there is a research agenda that is approaching. In both theoretical models there are important concepts to analyse the effects of the institutions in the development.

Crítica científica e modelos interpretativos em Nietzsche

A partir da denúncia da contraditória presença de pressupostos morais dogmáticos na formulação dos princípios norteadores da atividade científica, Nietzsche concebe uma outra noção de cientificidade, compatível com a opção hegemônica pelo saber, que ele reconhece como presente na cultura ocidental. O presente artigo visa a discutir sob quais parâmetros Nietzsche, no período intermediário de sua produção filosófica, empreende sua interpretação da cientificidade ocidental e como, apresentando-se como seu fomentador, ele formula uma crítica desmistificadora desta.

Theodor Adorno: filosofia de conteúdos e modelos críticos

Procura-se destacar aqui, a partir da relação de mútua dependência entre o concreto e o especulativo em Theodor Adorno, algumas características próprias de sua exposição filosófica. A recusa de definições, a busca de constelações, a construção de "modelos críticos" tornam-se mais inteligíveis quando examinadas à luz da relação entre os conceitos e o não-conceitual. Pretende-se assim esclarecer melhor a relação entre verdade e história no pensamento de Adorno.

Modelos Neurais de Consciência: uma Análise Neurofilosófica

Modelos neurocognitivos têm sido propostos para investigar a consciência. O objetivo é responder à pergunta sobre como o cérebro é capaz de produzir estados conscientes qualitativos. Os modelos são representações teóricas baseadas em algumas pesquisas empíricas. Contudo, a questão central, aparentemente trivial para alguns autores, refere-se à representatividade e confiabilidade dos modelos, i.e., saber se são capazes de explicar como a consciência emerge de processos neurais. Esses modelos são considerados como guia no estudo científico da consciência: os modelos cognitivos de Dennett (Multiple Draft) e Baars (Global Workspace), os modelos neurobiológicos de Edelman (Dynamic Core), Dehaene et al. (Global Neuronal), de Damásio (Somatic Markers Hypothesis), e o modelo neurodinâmico (Neurodynamic Model) proposto por Freeman. O presente texto visa a analisar a coerência e a plausibilidade dos modelos, i.e., se realmente explicam a “consciência” e suas propriedades em termos neurais ou se explicam apenas mecanismos neurobiológicos subjacentes no cérebro. O objetivo é avaliar escopo e limites dos modelos além da aplicabilidade na resolução do problema da consciência.

La promoción de las potencialidades del territorio regional : Antecedentes, modelos, diagnóstico y visión para el desarrollo y ordenamiento de la subregión Sabana, e identificación de los grandes temas para la revisión del POT de Bogotá

Gestión del conocimiento

Salivary testosterone and cortisol : role of athletic setting, game outcome, and game location /

Many studies investigating the relationship between hormones and competition have focused on athletic competition. The athletic setting enables r researchers to investigate the hormone-behaviour relationship in a relatively controlled environment. However, research to date has been based on observations made from single status contests and/or weekend tournaments and as such, does not provide a clear picture of an individual's average hormonal responses to both victory and defeat. In appreciation of this limitation, the current study tracked elite hockey players throughout a hockey season, measuring pre- and post-game salivary testosterone and Cortisol as well as psychological measures. I was interested in determining whether status outcome (win vs. loss) would influence an individual's testosterone and Cortisol responses to competition. Furthermore, I was also interested in assessing whether testosterone and Cortisol responses were specific to the competitive environment or whether similar hormonal responses would occur during non-competitive practice sessions. Last, I was interested in whether there were any differences in pre-game hormonal and psychological states depending on where the status contest was held: home versus away. The results indicated that game outcome moderated the testosterone responses to competition. That is, testosterone increased significantly more after a victory compared to a defeat. Furthermore, a loss of status produced significantly hreports, the players did not show an anticipatory rise in either Cortisol or testosterone prior to competition. In addition to the effects of status outcome on hormonal levels, it was also found that these hormonal responses were specific to competition. The athletes in the current study did not demonstrate any hormonal responses to the practice sessions. Last, there were significant differences in pre-game testosterone as well as in selfconfidence, cognitive, and somatic anxiety levels depending on the location at which the status contest took place. Pre-game testosterone and self-confidence levels were significantly higher prior to games played in the home venue. In contrast, pre-game somatic and cognitive anxiety levels were significantly higher prior to games played in the away venue. The current findings add to the developing literature on the relationship between hormones and competition. This was the first study to detect a moderating effect of status outcome on testosterone responses in a team sport. Furthermore, this was also the first study in humans to demonstrate that post-contest Cortisol levels were significantly higher after a loss of status. Last, the current study also adds to the sport psychology literature by demonstrating that pre-game psychological variables differ depending on where the status contest is being held: higher self-confidence at home and higher somatic and cognitive anxiety away. Taken together, the results from the current thesis may have important practical relevance to coaches, trainers and sport psychologists who are always trying to find ways to maximize performance. post-game Cortisol levels than did an increase in status. In contrast to previous

Notice of Location of Grave - Wailly Orchard Cemetery

Two notices from the Director of Graves Registration and Enquiries, London, England noting the location of the grave as Wailly Orchard Cemetery near Arras. One of the certificates incorrectly notes the name as S.G. Woodruff while the other correctly has S. D. Woodruff. The number listed for Lieut. S. D. Woodruff's grave site photograph is CCM/9/4433.