Optimal Taxation and Indeterminacy in the Uzawa-Lucas Model with Sector-specific Externalities

Documento de trabajo

Evaluation of Fentanyl Disposition and Effects in Newborn Piglets as an Experimental Model for Human Neonates

Background: Fentanyl is widely used off-label in NICU. Our aim was to investigate its cerebral, cardiovascular and pulmonary effects as well as pharmacokinetics in an experimental model for neonates. Methods: Fentanyl (5 mu g/kg bolus immediately followed by a 90 minute infusion of 3 mu g/kg/h) was administered to six mechanically ventilated newborn piglets. Cardiovascular, ventilation, pulmonary and oxygenation indexes as well as brain activity were monitored from T = 0 up to the end of experiments (T = 225-300 min). Also plasma samples for quantification of fentanyl were drawn. Results: A "reliable degree of sedation" was observed up to T = 210-240 min, consistent with the selected dosing regimen and the observed fentanyl plasma levels. Unlike cardiovascular parameters, which were unmodified except for an increasing trend in heart rate, some of the ventilation and oxygenation indexes as well as brain activity were significantly altered. The pulmonary and brain effects of fentanyl were mostly recovered from T = 210 min to the end of experiment. Conclusion: The newborn piglet was shown to be a suitable experimental model for studying fentanyl disposition as well as respiratory and cardiovascular effects in human neonates. Therefore, it could be extremely useful for further investigating the drug behaviour under pathophysiological conditions.

Using experiments and expert judgment to model catchability of Pacific rockfishes in trawl surveys, with application to bocaccio (Sebastes paucispinis) off British Columbia

The time series of abundance indices for many groundfish populations, as determined from trawl surveys, are often imprecise and short, causing stock assessment estimates of abundance to be imprecise. To improve precision, prior probability distributions (priors) have been developed for parameters in stock assessment models by using meta-analysis, expert judgment on catchability, and empirically based modeling. This article presents a synthetic approach for formulating priors for rockfish trawl survey catchability (qgross). A multivariate prior for qgross for different surveys is formulated by using 1) a correction factor for bias in estimating fish density between trawlable and untrawlable areas, 2) expert judgment on trawl net catchability, 3) observations from trawl survey experiments, and 4) data on the fraction of population biomass in each of the areas surveyed. The method is illustrated by using bocaccio (Sebastes paucipinis) in British Columbia. Results indicate that expert judgment can be updated markedly by observing the catch-rate ratio from different trawl gears in the same areas. The marginal priors for qgross are consistent with empirical estimates obtained by fitting a stock assessment model to the survey data under a noninformative prior for qgross. Despite high prior uncertainty (prior coefficients of variation ≥0.8) and high prior correlation between qgross, the prior for qgross still enhances the precision of key stock assessment quantities.

Defining plausible migration rates based on historical tagging data: a Bayesian mark-recapture model applied to English sole (Parophrys vetulus)

A generalized Bayesian population dynamics model was developed for analysis of historical mark-recapture studies. The Bayesian approach builds upon existing maximum likelihood methods and is useful when substantial uncertainties exist in the data or little information is available about auxiliary parameters such as tag loss and reporting rates. Movement rates are obtained through Markov-chain Monte-Carlo (MCMC) simulation, which are suitable for use as input in subsequent stock assessment analysis. The mark-recapture model was applied to English sole (Parophrys vetulus) off the west coast of the United States and Canada and migration rates were estimated to be 2% per month to the north and 4% per month to the south. These posterior parameter distributions and the Bayesian framework for comparing hypotheses can guide fishery scientists in structuring the spatial and temporal complexity of future analyses of this kind. This approach could be easily generalized for application to other species and more data-rich fishery analyses.

Incorporating fishery observer data into an integrated catch-at-age and multiyear tagging model for estimating mortality rates and abundance

Tagging experiments are a useful tool in fisheries for estimating mortality rates and abundance of fish. Unfortunately, nonreporting of recovered tags is a common problem in commercial fisheries which, if unaccounted for, can render these estimates meaningless. Observers are often employed to monitor a portion of the catches as a means of estimating reporting rates. In our study, observer data were incorporated into an integrated model for multiyear tagging and catch data to provide joint estimates of mortality rates (natural and f ishing), abundance, and reporting rates. Simulations were used to explore model performance under a range of scenarios (e.g., different parameter values, parameter constraints, and numbers of release and recapture years). Overall, results indicated that all parameters can be estimated with reasonable accuracy, but that fishing mortality, reporting rates, and abundance can be estimated with much higher precision than natural mortality. An example of how the model can be applied to provide guidance on experimental design for a large-scale tagging study is presented. Such guidance can contribute to the successful and cost-effective management of tagging programs for commercial fisheries.

A simple spreadsheet model to incorporate seasonal growth into length-based stock assessment methods

The paper describes a method by which seasonal growth can be incorporated into length-converted catch curves and cohort analyses using a spreadsheet. The method is based on calculating the length of fish using seasonal growth parameters on a daily basis. A LOOKUP function is then used to find the age corresponding to the length.