987 resultados para Modèle de Cox pondéré


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Developments in computer and three dimensional (3D) digitiser technologies have made it possible to keep track of the broad range of data required to simulate an insect moving around or over the highly heterogeneous habitat of a plant's surface. Properties of plant parts vary within a complex canopy architecture, and insect damage can induce further changes that affect an animal's movements, development and likelihood of survival. Models of plant architectural development based on Lindenmayer systems (L-systems) serve as dynamic platforms for simulation of insect movement, providing ail explicit model of the developing 3D structure of a plant as well as allowing physiological processes associated with plant growth and responses to damage to be described and Simulated. Simple examples of the use of the L-system formalism to model insect movement, operating Lit different spatial scales-from insects foraging on an individual plant to insects flying around plants in a field-are presented. Such models can be used to explore questions about the consequences of changes in environmental architecture and configuration on host finding, exploitation and its population consequences. In effect this model is a 'virtual ecosystem' laboratory to address local as well as landscape-level questions pertinent to plant-insect interactions, taking plant architecture into account. (C) 2002 Elsevier Science B.V. All rights reserved.

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Objective. The aim of this study was to determine the prognostic significance of serosal involvement (SER), adnexal involvement (ADN), and positive peritoneal washings (PPW) in patients with Stage IIIA uterine cancer. We also sought to determine patterns of recurrence in patients with this disease. Methods. The records of 136 patients with Stage IIIA uterine cancer treated at the Queensland Centre for Gynecological Cancer between March 1983 and August 2001 were reviewed. One hundred thirty-six patients underwent surgery and 58 (42.6%) had full surgical staging. Seventy-five patients (55.2%) had external beam radiotherapy and/or brachytherapy postoperatively. Overall survival was the primary statistical endpoint. Statistical analysis included univariate and multivariate Cox models. Results. Forty-six patients (33.8%) had adnexal involvement, 23 (16.9%) had serosal involvement, and 40 (29.4%) had positive peritoneal washings. Median follow-up was 55.1 months (95% confidence interval, 36.9 to 73.4 months) after which time 71 patients (52.2%) remained alive. For patients with endometrioid adenocarcinoma, ADN and SER were associated with impaired survival on multivariate analysis (odds ratio 2.8 and 3.2, respectively). In the subgroup of patients with high-risk tumors (including papillary serous carcinomas, clear cell carcinomas, and uterine sarcomas), neither ADN, nor SER, nor PPW influenced survival. Conclusion. Patients with Stage IIIA uterine cancer constitute a heterogeneous group. For patients with endometrioid adenocarcinoma, both ADN and SER, but not PPW, were associated with impaired prognosis. For patients with high-risk histological types, prognosis is poor for all three factors. (C) 2002 Elsevier Science (USA).

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Aims The new cyclooxygenase-2 (COX-2) selective inhibitors, celecoxib (Celebrex®) and rofecoxib (Vioxx®), have been widely prescribed since their launch. No reviews currently appear in the literature of prescribing patterns in Australia. This paper describes a self-audit of the clinical use of selective COX-2 inhibitor therapy undertaken with rural general practitioners (GPs) in Australia. Methods A structured audit form was developed and distributed to interested GPs. The form was self-administered and focused on issues about COX-2 inhibitors and the types of patients who were receiving them, e.g. indications, patient demographics, risk factors and drug interactions. Results A total of 627 patients were recruited (569 celecoxib and 58 rofecoxib). A range of doses was prescribed. Osteoarthritis was the most common indication (68.1%). Risk factors known for the nonselective nonsteroidal anti-inflammatory drugs were identified in 65.1% of patients, with the most common being advanced age, hypertension and previous peptic ulcer disease. Potential drug interactions were common. A variety of reasons for initiation of therapy was identified; these included perceived increased efficacy, safety and failure of other treatment. Conclusions These results show that COX-2 inhibitors are being prescribed for patients with multiple risk factors that may place the patient at increased risk of adverse drug reactions to a COX-2 inhibitor. The perception of improved safety and efficacy was common and is of concern. Limitations of the study include the reliance on self-reporting.

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Objective To determine the relative importance of recognised risk factors for non-haemorrhagic stroke, including serum cholesterol and the effect of cholesterol-lowering therapy, on the occurrence of non-haemorrhagic stroke in patients enrolled in the LIPID (Long-term Intervention with Pravastatin in Ischaemic Disease) study. Design The LIPID study was a placebo-controlled, double-blind trial of the efficacy on coronary heart disease mortality of pravastatin therapy over 6 years in 9014 patients with previous acute coronary syndromes and baseline total cholesterol of 4-7 mmol/l. Following identification of patients who had suffered non-haemorrhagic stroke, a pre-specified secondary end point, multivariate Cox regression was used to determine risk in the total population. Time-to-event analysis was used to determine the effect of pravastatin therapy on the rate of non-haemorrhagic stroke. Results There were 388 non-haemorrhagic strokes in 350 patients. Factors conferring risk of future non-haemorrhagic stroke were age, atrial fibrillation, prior stroke, diabetes, hypertension, systolic blood pressure, cigarette smoking, body mass index, male sex and creatinine clearance. Baseline lipids did not predict non-haemorrhagic stroke. Treatment with pravastatin reduced non-haemorrhagic stroke by 23% (P= 0.016) when considered alone, and 21% (P= 0.024) after adjustment for other risk factors. Conclusions The study confirmed the variety of risk factors for non-haemorrhagic stroke. From the risk predictors, a simple prognostic index was created for nonhaemorrhagic stroke to identify a group of patients at high risk. Treatment with pravastatin resulted in significant additional benefit after allowance for risk factors. (C) 2002 Lippincott Williams Wilkins.

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Aims: This study was designed to investigate the influence of angiotensin II (Ang II) and nitric oxide (NO) on autoregulation of renal perfusion. Methods: Autoregulation was investigated in isolated perfused kidneys (IPRK) from Sprague-Dawley rats during stepped increases in perfusion pressure. Results: Ang II (75-200 pM) produced dose-dependent enhancement of autoregulation whereas phenylephrine produced no enhancement and impaired autoregulation of GFR. Enhancement by Ang II was inhibited by the AT(1) antagonist, Losartan, and the superoxide scavenger, Tempol. Under control conditions nitric oxide synthase (NOS) inhibition by 10 muM N-omega-nitro-L-arginine methyl ester (L-NAME) facilitated autoregulation in the presence of non-specific cyclooxygenase (COX) inhibition by 10 muM indomethacin. Both COX and combined NOS/COX inhibition reduced the autoregulatory threshold concentration of Ang II. Facilitation by 100 pM Ang II was inhibited by 100 muM frusemide. Methacholine (50 nM) antagonised Ang II-facilitated autoregulation in the presence and absence of NOS/COX inhibition. Infusion of the NO donor, 1 muM sodium nitroprusside, inhibited L-NAME enhancement of autoregulation under control conditions and during Ang II infusion. Conclusions: The results suggest than an excess of NO impairs autoregulation under control conditions in the IPRK and that endogenous and exogenous NO, vasodilatory prostaglandins and endothelium-derived hyperpolarizing factor (EDHF) activity antagonise Ang II-facilitated autoregulation. Ang II also produced a counterregulatory vasodilatory response that included prostaglandin and NO release. We suggest that Ang II facilitates autoregulation by a tubuloglomerular feedback-dependent mechanism through AT(1) receptor-mediated depletion of nitric oxide, probably by stimulating generation of superoxide.

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Hilary Putnam and Nelson Goodman are two of the twentieth century's most persuasive critics of metaphysical realism, however they disagree about the consequences of rejecting metaphysical realism. Goodman defended a view he called irrealism in which minds literally make worlds, and Putnam has sought to find a middle path between metaphysical realism and irrealism. I argue that Putnam's middle path turns out to be very elusive and defend a dichotomy between metaphysical realism and irrealism.

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This paper documents the successful development of an artificial insemination (AI) programme for the Koala Phascolurctos cinereus. The protocols for trials involving two methods to induce ovulation and two insemination techniques are described. In Trial 1, interrupted coitus using a 'teaser'♂ successfully induced ovulation in nine Koalas. Five ♀♀ were inseminated while conscious using a modified 'foley catheter' (Cook insemination catheter) resulting in the births of two offspring. The other four ♀♀ were anaesthetized and inseminated using a technique which allowed visualization of the most cranial portion of the urogenital sinus, where semen was deposited using a 3.5 Fr. 'Tom-cat catheter' (urogen-itoscopic insemination). Three of the four ♀♀ inseminated by this technique produced pouch young. Microsatellite analysis of DNA from the pouch young excluded the teaser ♀♀ as possible sires, confirming that all offspring were sired by donor sperm. In Trial 2, eight ♀♀ were induced to ovulate by injecting them with 250 International Units of human chorionic gonadotrophin (hCG). A luteal phase was confirmed in all eight ♀♀ but only one gave birth following urogenitoscopic insemination. The Koala pouch young in this study are the first of any marsupial to be conceived and born following A1 procedures. Details of the A1 procedures used are presented and the significance of A1 to the conservation biology of P. cinereus discussed.

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Background Patients with known or suspected coronary disease are often investigated to facilitate risk assessment. We sought to examine the cost-effectiveness of strategies based on exercise echocardiography and exercise electrocardiography. Methods and results We studied 7656 patients undergoing exercise testing; of whom half underwent exercise echocardiography. Risk was defined with the Duke treadmill score for those undergoing exercise electrocardiography alone, and by the extent of ischaemia by exercise echocardiography. Cox proportional hazards models, risk adjusted for pretest likelihood of coronary artery disease, were used to estimate time to cardiac death or myocardial infarction. Costs (including diagnostic and revascularisation procedures, hospitalisations, and events) were calculated, inflation-corrected to year 2000 using Medicare trust fund rates and discounted at a rate of 5%. A decision model was employed to assess the marginal cost effectiveness (cost/life year saved) of exercise echo compared with exercise electrocardiography. Exercise echocardiography identified more patients as low-risk (51% vs 24%, p<0.001), and fewer as intermediate- (27% vs 51%, p<0.001) and high-risk (22% vs 4%); survival was greater in low- and intermediate- risk and less in high-risk patients. Although initial procedural costs and revascularisation costs (in intermediate- high risk patients) were greater, exercise echocardiography was associated with a greater incremental life expectancy (0.2 years) and a lower use of additional diagnostic procedures when compared with exercise electrocardiography (especially in lower risk patients). Using decision analysis, exercise echocardiography (Euro 2615/life year saved) was more cost effective than exercise electrocardiography. Conclusion Exercise echocardiography may enhance cost-effectiveness for the detection and management of at risk patients with known or suspected coronary disease. (C) 2003 Published by Elsevier Science Ltd on behalf of The European Society of Cardiology.

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Background: The heavy usage of coxibs in Australia far outstrips the predicted usage that was based on the treatment of patients with risk factors for upper gastro-intestinal adverse events from conventional anti--inflammatory agents. This raises questions regarding the appropriateness of prescribing. Aims: To determine: (i) the relationship between prescriptions for cyclooxygenase 2 (COX-2) inhibitors and objective evidence of inflammatory arthritis, (ii) prior experience with paracetamol and/or conventional non-steroidal anti-inflammatory drugs (NSAIDs), and (iii) contraindications to the use of NSAIDs. Methods: Drug utilization evaluation and rheumato-logical assessment was conducted on 70 consecutive patients admitted on COX-2 inhibitors to a 480-bed metropolitan hospital. The main outcome measures were: the indication for COX-2 inhibitor; objective -evidence of inflammatory arthritis; previous trial of -paracetamol or conventional NSAIDs; and patient -satisfaction. Results: Only 11 patients (16%) had symptoms or signs of an inflammatory arthropathy, and met Pharmaceut-ical Benefits Schedule criteria for prescribing a COX-2 inhibitor. Fifty-nine patients (84%) had chronic osteo-arthritis, degenerative spinal disease, injury or malignancy, without overt active inflammation. Fourteen patients (20%) had trialled regular paracetamol prior to using any NSAID treatment. Conventional NSAIDs had been previously used by 51 patients (73%). Eleven patients (16%) reported previous adverse gastrointestinal effects from conventional NSAIDs. On the basis of significant renal impairment (creatinine clearance 5/10). Conclusions: Drug utilization data indicate that COX-2 inhibitors are frequently used first line for degenerative osteoarthritis in the absence of overt inflammation, without prior adequate trial of paracetamol and with disregard for the cautions and contraindications of these agents. These findings may explain the unprecedented Pharmaceutical Benefits Schedule expenditure on COX-2 inhibitors in Australia.

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We evaluated the effects of various food groups and micronutrients in the diet on survival among women who originally participated in a population-based case-control study of ovarian cancer conducted across 3 Australian states between 1990 and 1993. This analysis included 609 women with invasive epithelial ovarian cancer, primarily because there was negligible mortality in women with borderline tumors. The women's usual diet was assessed using a validated food frequency questionnaire. Deaths in the cohort were identified using state-based cancer registries and the Australian National Death Index (NDI). Crude 5-year survival probabilities were estimated using the Kaplan-Meier technique, and adjusted hazard ratios (HRs) and 95% confidence intervals (CIs) were obtained from Cox regression models. After adjusting for important confounding factors, a survival advantage was observed for those who reported higher intake of vegetables in general (HR = 0.75, 95% CI = 0.57-0.99, p-value trend 0.01 for the highest third, compared to the lowest third), and cruciferous vegetables in particular (HR = 0.75, 95% CI = 0.57-0.98, p-value trend 0.03), and among women in the upper third of intake of vitamin E (HR = 0.76, 95% CI = 0.58-1.01, p-value trend 0.04). Inverse associations were also seen with protein (p-value trend 0.09), red meat (p-value trend 0.06) and white meat (p-value trend 0.07), and modest positive trends (maximum 30% excess) with lactose (p-value trend 0.04), calcium and dairy products. Although much remains to be learned about the influence of nutritional factors after a diagnosis of ovarian cancer, our study suggests the possibility that a diet high in vegetable intake may help improve survival. (C) 2003 Wiley-Liss, Inc.

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O principal objetivo deste trabalho foi identificar e caracterizar a evolução diária da Camada Limite Atmosférica (CLA) na Região da Grande Vitória (RGV), Estado do Espírito Santo, Brasil e na Região de Dunkerque (RD), Departamento Nord Pas-de-Calais, França, avaliando a acurácia de parametrizações usadas no modelo meteorológico Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) em detectar a formação e atributos da Camada Limite Interna (CLI) que é formada pelas brisas marítimas. A RGV tem relevo complexo, em uma região costeira de topografia acidentada e uma cadeia de montanhas paralela à costa. A RD tem relevo simples, em uma região costeira com pequenas ondulações que não chegam a ultrapassar 150 metros, ao longo do domínio de estudos. Para avaliar os resultados dos prognósticos feitos pelo modelo, foram utilizados os resultados de duas campanhas: uma realizada na cidade de Dunkerque, no norte da França, em Julho de 2009, utilizando um sistema light detection and ranging (LIDAR), um sonic detection and ranging (SODAR) e dados de uma estação meteorológica de superfície (EMS); outra realizada na cidade de Vitória – Espírito Santo, no mês de julho de 2012, também usando um LIDAR, um SODAR e dados de uma EMS. Foram realizadas simulações usando três esquemas de parametrizações para a CLA, dois de fechamento não local, Yonsei University (YSU) e Asymmetric Convective Model 2 (ACM2) e um de fechamento local, Mellor Yamada Janjic (MYJ) e dois esquemas de camada superficial do solo (CLS), Rapid Update Cycle (RUC) e Noah. Tanto para a RGV quanto para a RD, foram feitas simulações com as seis possíveis combinações das três parametrizações de CLA e as duas de CLS, para os períodos em que foram feitas as campanhas, usando quatro domínios aninhados, sendo os três maiores quadrados com dimensões laterais de 1863 km, 891 km e 297 km, grades de 27 km, 9 km e 3 km, respectivamente, e o domínio de estudo, com dimensões de 81 km na direção Norte-Sul e 63 km na Leste-Oeste, grade de 1 km, com 55 níveis verticais, até um máximo de, aproximadamente, 13.400 m, mais concentrados próximos ao solo. Os resultados deste trabalho mostraram que: a) dependendo da configuração adotada, o esforço computacional pode aumentar demasiadamente, sem que ocorra um grande aumento na acurácia dos resultados; b) para a RD, a simulação usando o conjunto de parametrizações MYJ para a CLA com a parametrização Noah produziu a melhor estimativa captando os fenômenos da CLI. As simulações usando as parametrizações ACM2 e YSU inferiram a entrada da brisa com atraso de até três horas; c) para a RGV, a simulação que usou as parametrizações YSU para a CLA em conjunto com a parametrização Noah para CLS foi a que conseguiu fazer melhores inferências sobre a CLI. Esses resultados sugerem a necessidade de avaliações prévias do esforço computacional necessário para determinadas configurações, e sobre a acurácia de conjuntos de parametrizações específicos para cada região pesquisada. As diferenças estão associadas com a capacidade das diferentes parametrizações em captar as informações superficiais provenientes das informações globais, essenciais para determinar a intensidade de mistura turbulenta vertical e temperatura superficial do solo, sugerindo que uma melhor representação do uso de solo é fundamental para melhorar as estimativas sobre a CLI e demais parâmetros usados por modelos de dispersão de poluentes atmosféricos.

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O objetivo deste estudo foi estimar a cronologia e sequência de erupção da dentição decídua e seus fatores relacionados em amostra de crianças de duas regiões do município de Vitória, ES. Os dados utilizados no estudo são provenientes de um estudo longitudinal realizado entre 2003 e 2006 com 86 recém-nascidos que foram acompanhados até a idade de 36 meses de vida, cuja coleta de dados foi obtida por meio da aplicação de um formulário as mães e da realização de um exame clínico nas crianças. Um total de 67 crianças permaneceram até o final do estudo. Calculou-se a idade média de erupção dos dentes decíduos de cada criança e foram aplicados o teste de kappa, McNemar e kappa ajustado pela prevalência. Em seguida realizou-se a Análise de Sobrevivência. Os resultados mostraram que a média de erupção dos dentes decíduos variou de oito a 29 meses de vida no arco inferior, e de 11 a 30 meses no arco superior e que os maiores níveis de concordância foram para os tempos de erupção dos incisivos e caninos decíduos (71/81, kappa = 0,82; IC95% = 0,72-0,93; 53/63, kappa = 0,76; IC95% = 0,62-0,88) do que para os molares decíduos. Dos fatores relacionados a cronologia de erupção da dentição decídua, foi identificado na Regressão de Cox que os hábitos alimentares infantis podem influenciar, acelerando e retardando esse processo eruptivo. Recomenda-se o conhecimento do perfil de erupção decídua de cada população para que tais evidências sirvam de base para a implementação de medidas de prevenção e controle da saúde dessa população e auxilie na elaboração de estratégias, com ações de proteção e promoção da saúde. As ações tem como finalidade a prevenção de possíveis alterações bucais e gerais durante o crescimento e desenvolvimento infantil e melhoria da qualidade de vida dessa população.