North Atlantic climatic signals and the plankton of the European Continental Shelf

Climatic variability on the European Continental Shelf is dominated by events over the North Atlantic Ocean, and in particular by the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO). The NAO is essentially a winter phenomenon, and its effects will be felt most strongly by populations for which winter conditions are critical. One example is the copepod Calanus finmarchicus, whose northern North Sea populations overwinter at depth in the North Atlantic. Its annual abundance in this region is strongly dependent on water transports at the end of the winter, and hence on the NAO index. Variations in the NAO give rise to changes in the circulation of the North Atlantic Ocean, with additional perturbations arising from El Ni (n) over tildeo - Southern Oscillation (ENSO) events in the Pacific, and these changes can be delayed by several years because of the adjustment time of the ocean circulation. One measure of the circulation is the latitude of the north wall of the Gulf Stream (GSNW index). Interannual variations in the plankton of the Shelf Seas show strong correlations with the fluctuations of the GSNW index, which are the result of Atlantic-wide atmospheric processes. These associations imply that the interannual variations are climatically induced rather than due to natural fluctuations of the marine ecosystem, and that the zooplankton populations have not been significantly affected by anthropogenic processes such as nutrient enrichment or fishing pressure. While the GSNW index represents a response to atmospheric changes over two or more years, the zooplankton populations correlated with it have generation times of a few weeks. The simplest explanation for the associations between the zooplankton and the GSNW index is that the plankton are responding to weather patterns propagating downstream from the Gulf Stream system. It seems that these meteorological processes operate in the spring. Although it has been suggested that there was a regime shift in the North Sea in the late 1980s, examination of the time-series by the cumulative sum (CUSUM) technique shows that any changes in the zooplankton of the central and northern North Sea are consistent with the background climatic variability. The abundance of total copepods increased during this period but this change does not represent a dramatic change in ecosystem processes. It is possible some change may have occurred at the end of the time-series in the years 1997 and 1998.

Influence of light in the mixed-layer on the parameters of a three-component model of phytoplankton size class

Phytoplankton size structure is an important indicator of the state of the pelagic ecosystem. Stimulated by the paucity of in situ observations on size structure, and by the sampling advantages of autonomous remote platforms, new efforts are being made to infer the size-structure of the phytoplankton from oceanographic variables that may be measured at high temporal and spatial resolution, such as total chlorophyll concentration. Large-scale analysis of in situ data has revealed coherent relationships between size-fractionated chlorophyll and total chlorophyll that can be quantified using the three-component model of Brewin et al. (2010). However, there are variations surrounding these general relationships. In this paper, we first revise the three-component model using a global dataset of surface phytoplankton pigment measurements. Then, using estimates of the average irradiance in the mixed-layer, we investigate the influence of ambient light on the parameters of the three-component model. We observe significant relationships between model parameters and the average irradiance in the mixed-layer, consistent with ecological knowledge. These relationships are incorporated explicitly into the three-component model to illustrate variations in the relationship between size-structure and total chlorophyll, ensuing from variations in light availability. The new model may be used as a tool to investigate modifications in size-structure in the context of a changing climate.

Integrating methods for ecosystem service assessment and valuation: Mixed methods or mixed messages?

A mixed-method approach was used to assess and value the ecosystem services derived from the Dogger Bank, an extensive shallow sandbank in the southern North Sea. Three parallel studies were undertaken that 1) identified and quantified, where possible, how indicators for ecosystem service provision may change according to two future scenarios, 2) assessed members of the public's willingness-to-pay for improvements to a small number of ecosystem services as a consequence of a hypothetical management plan, and 3) facilitated a process of deliberation that allowed members of the public to explore the uses of the Dogger Bank and the conflicts and dilemmas involved in its management. Each of these studies was designed to answer different and specific research questions and therefore contributes different insights about the ecosystem services delivered by the Dogger Bank. This paper explores what can be gained by bringing these findings together post hoc and the extent to which the different methods are complementary. Findings suggest that mixed-method research brings more understanding than can be gained from the individual approaches alone. Nevertheless, the choice of methods used and how these methods are implemented strongly affects the results obtained.