Integrating functional connectivity and climate change in the design of protected area networks

Le rapide déclin actuel de la biodiversité est inquiétant et les activités humaines en sont la cause directe. De nombreuses aires protégées ont été mises en place pour contrer cette perte de biodiversité. Afin de maximiser leur efficacité, l’amélioration de la connectivité fonctionnelle entre elles est requise. Les changements climatiques perturbent actuellement les conditions environnementales de façon globale. C’est une menace pour la biodiversité qui n’a pas souvent été intégrée lors de la mise en place des aires protégées, jusqu’à récemment. Le mouvement des espèces, et donc la connectivité fonctionnelle du paysage, est impacté par les changements climatiques et des études ont montré qu’améliorer la connectivité fonctionnelle entre les aires protégées aiderait les espèces à faire face aux impacts des changements climatiques. Ma thèse présente une méthode pour concevoir des réseaux d’aires protégées tout en tenant compte des changements climatiques et de la connectivité fonctionnelle. Mon aire d’étude est la région de la Gaspésie au Québec (Canada). La population en voie de disparition de caribou de la Gaspésie-Atlantique (Rangifer tarandus caribou) a été utilisée comme espèce focale pour définir la connectivité fonctionnelle. Cette petite population subit un déclin continu dû à la prédation et la modification de son habitat, et les changements climatiques pourraient devenir une menace supplémentaire. J’ai d’abord construit un modèle individu-centré spatialement explicite pour expliquer et simuler le mouvement du caribou. J’ai utilisé les données VHF éparses de la population de caribou et une stratégie de modélisation patron-orienté pour paramétrer et sélectionner la meilleure hypothèse de mouvement. Mon meilleur modèle a reproduit la plupart des patrons de mouvement définis avec les données observées. Ce modèle fournit une meilleure compréhension des moteurs du mouvement du caribou de la Gaspésie-Atlantique, ainsi qu’une estimation spatiale de son utilisation du paysage dans la région. J’ai conclu que les données éparses étaient suffisantes pour ajuster un modèle individu-centré lorsqu’utilisé avec une modélisation patron-orienté. Ensuite, j’ai estimé l’impact des changements climatiques et de différentes actions de conservation sur le potentiel de mouvement du caribou. J’ai utilisé le modèle individu-centré pour simuler le mouvement du caribou dans des paysages hypothétiques représentant différents scénarios de changements climatiques et d’actions de conservation. Les actions de conservation représentaient la mise en place de nouvelles aires protégées en Gaspésie, comme définies par le scénario proposé par le gouvernement du Québec, ainsi que la restauration de routes secondaires à l’intérieur des aires protégées. Les impacts des changements climatiques sur la végétation, comme définis dans mes scénarios, ont réduit le potentiel de mouvement du caribou. La restauration des routes était capable d’atténuer ces effets négatifs, contrairement à la mise en place des nouvelles aires protégées. Enfin, j’ai présenté une méthode pour concevoir des réseaux d’aires protégées efficaces et j’ai proposé des nouvelles aires protégées à mettre en place en Gaspésie afin de protéger la biodiversité sur le long terme. J’ai créé de nombreux scénarios de réseaux d’aires protégées en étendant le réseau actuel pour protéger 12% du territoire. J’ai calculé la représentativité écologique et deux mesures de connectivité fonctionnelle sur le long terme pour chaque réseau. Les mesures de connectivité fonctionnelle représentaient l’accès général aux aires protégées pour le caribou de la Gaspésie-Atlantique ainsi que son potentiel de mouvement à l’intérieur. J’ai utilisé les estimations de potentiel de mouvement pour la période de temps actuelle ainsi que pour le futur sous différents scénarios de changements climatiques pour représenter la connectivité fonctionnelle sur le long terme. Le réseau d’aires protégées que j’ai proposé était le scénario qui maximisait le compromis entre les trois caractéristiques de réseau calculées. Dans cette thèse, j’ai expliqué et prédit le mouvement du caribou de la Gaspésie-Atlantique sous différentes conditions environnementales, notamment des paysages impactés par les changements climatiques. Ces résultats m’ont aidée à définir un réseau d’aires protégées à mettre en place en Gaspésie pour protéger le caribou au cours du temps. Je crois que cette thèse apporte de nouvelles connaissances sur le comportement de mouvement du caribou de la Gaspésie-Atlantique, ainsi que sur les actions de conservation qui peuvent être prises en Gaspésie afin d’améliorer la protection du caribou et de celle d’autres espèces. Je crois que la méthode présentée peut être applicable à d’autres écosystèmes aux caractéristiques et besoins similaires.

Increased water charges improve efficiency and equity in an irrigation system

Conventional wisdom in many agricultural systems across the world is that farmers cannot, will not, or should not pay the full costs associated with surface water delivery. Across Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD) countries, only a handful can claim complete recovery of operation, maintenance, and capital costs; across Central and South Asia, fees are lower still, with farmers in Nepal, India, and Kazakhstan paying fractions of a U.S. penny for a cubic meter of water. In Pakistan, fees amount to roughly USD 1-2 per acre per season. However, farmers in Pakistan spend orders of magnitude more for diesel fuel to pump groundwater each season, suggesting a latent willingness to spend for water that, under the right conditions, could potentially be directed toward water-use fees for surface water supply. Although overall performance could be expected to improve with greater cost recovery, asymmetric access to water in canal irrigation systems leaves the question open as to whether those benefits would be equitably shared among all farmers in the system. We develop an agent-based model (ABM) of a small irrigation command to examine efficiency and equity outcomes across a range of different cost structures for the maintenance of the system, levels of market development, and assessed water charges. We find that, robust to a range of different cost and structural conditions, increased water charges lead to gains in both efficiency and concomitant improvements in equity as investments in canal infrastructure and system maintenance improve the conveyance of water resources further down watercourses. This suggests that, under conditions in which (1) farmers are currently spending money to pump groundwater to compensate for a failing surface water system, and (2) there is the possibility that through initial investment to provide perceptibly better water supply, genuine win-win solutions can be attained through higher water-use fees to beneficiary farmers.

Revisão do plano de segurança da água do sistema regional do Carvoeiro

Os Planos de Segurança da Água surgem com a necessidade de aumentar a segurança da água de abastecimento, superando a monitorização de conformidade de “fim de linha”, permitindo aumentar a confiança do consumidor na qualidade da água que lhe é fornecida. Esta nova abordagem recorre a uma metodologia de gestão baseada na identificação e no controlo de riscos em pontos críticos de um sistema de abastecimento, em complemento do controlo realizado através da monitorização da conformidade da água entregue aos consumidores. O Plano de Segurança da Água (PSA) encontra-se implementado no Sistema Regional do Carvoeiro (SRC) desde o ano de 2009. O SRC é um sistema de abastecimento de água em alta, sendo constituído por conjunto de infraestruturas de captação, tratamento, transporte e armazenamento de água desde a sua origem, localizada no rio Vouga, em Carvoeiro, até aos municípios integrados na Associação de Municípios do Carvoeiro-Vouga. Atendendo à obra de expansão do SRC, tornou-se imperativo efetuar uma revisão ao PSA, sendo este o objetivo primordial do trabalho de estágio desenvolvido na empresa Águas do Vouga S.A, concessionária responsável pela gestão do SRC. Para a prossecução deste objetivo, o trabalho desenvolvido envolveu os seguintes passos metodológicos: identificação das operações aplicadas no SRC; identificação de perigos e eventos perigosos em todos os órgãos constituintes do sistema; avaliação de riscos; identificação de pontos críticos de controlo; identificação de pontos de monitorização e medidas preventivas; elaboração do plano de monitorização, incluindo, procedimentos de controlo operacional em condições normais de funcionamento e em caso de desvio; validação deste plano. Deste trabalho resultou a identificação de 166 eventos perigosos, 17 tipologias de perigos, 3 pontos de controlo crítico e 17 pontos de monitorização. Os pontos de controlo crítico foram identificados nos processos de tratamento da ETA do Carvoeiro. O primeiro foi localizado na etapa de filtração com areia, antracite e zeólitos correspondendo aos perigos com metais (Fe e Mn), outros compostos químicos perigosos, partículas, turvação, matéria orgânica e alumínio. O segundo ponto foi identificado na etapa de filtração com filtros de carvão ativado granular relativo ao aparecimento de sabor e cianotoxinas. O terceiro ponto de controlo crítico foi encontrado na etapa de desinfeção referente aos microrganismos patogénicos. Os pontos de monitorização foram localizados ao longo do sistema em situações onde não se dispõem de nenhuma medida de controlo para eliminar o perigo e antes e após os pontos de controlo crítico. O plano de monitorização foi desenvolvido para estes pontos, embora os limites e procedimentos definidos devam ser alvo de revisão após a conclusão da obra de expansão do sistema. A validação da revisão do plano foi iniciada, mas cingiu-se apenas na avaliação preliminar de riscos, prévia ao início de operação da ETA do Carvoeiro. Para além da revisão deste plano, foram realizadas outras tarefas, nomeadamente uma análise à qualidade da água fornecida e distribuída pelo sistema, a elaboração do plano PCQA para o ano de 2016, a configuração da plataforma de gestão operacional NAVIATM e a revisão do Manual de Gestão da Águas do Vouga relativo ao processo de qualidade na captação, tratamento e distribuição e ao processo de qualidade na gestão do PSA.

Scheduling of track inspection and maintenance activities in railroad networks

The U.S. railroad companies spend billions of dollars every year on railroad track maintenance in order to ensure safety and operational efficiency of their railroad networks. Besides maintenance costs, other costs such as train accident costs, train and shipment delay costs and rolling stock maintenance costs are also closely related to track maintenance activities. Optimizing the track maintenance process on the extensive railroad networks is a very complex problem with major cost implications. Currently, the decision making process for track maintenance planning is largely manual and primarily relies on the knowledge and judgment of experts. There is considerable potential to improve the process by using operations research techniques to develop solutions to the optimization problems on track maintenance. In this dissertation study, we propose a range of mathematical models and solution algorithms for three network-level scheduling problems on track maintenance: track inspection scheduling problem (TISP), production team scheduling problem (PTSP) and job-to-project clustering problem (JTPCP). TISP involves a set of inspection teams which travel over the railroad network to identify track defects. It is a large-scale routing and scheduling problem where thousands of tasks are to be scheduled subject to many difficult side constraints such as periodicity constraints and discrete working time constraints. A vehicle routing problem formulation was proposed for TISP, and a customized heuristic algorithm was developed to solve the model. The algorithm iteratively applies a constructive heuristic and a local search algorithm in an incremental scheduling horizon framework. The proposed model and algorithm have been adopted by a Class I railroad in its decision making process. Real-world case studies show the proposed approach outperforms the manual approach in short-term scheduling and can be used to conduct long-term what-if analyses to yield managerial insights. PTSP schedules capital track maintenance projects, which are the largest track maintenance activities and account for the majority of railroad capital spending. A time-space network model was proposed to formulate PTSP. More than ten types of side constraints were considered in the model, including very complex constraints such as mutual exclusion constraints and consecution constraints. A multiple neighborhood search algorithm, including a decomposition and restriction search and a block-interchange search, was developed to solve the model. Various performance enhancement techniques, such as data reduction, augmented cost function and subproblem prioritization, were developed to improve the algorithm. The proposed approach has been adopted by a Class I railroad for two years. Our numerical results show the model solutions are able to satisfy all hard constraints and most soft constraints. Compared with the existing manual procedure, the proposed approach is able to bring significant cost savings and operational efficiency improvement. JTPCP is an intermediate problem between TISP and PTSP. It focuses on clustering thousands of capital track maintenance jobs (based on the defects identified in track inspection) into projects so that the projects can be scheduled in PTSP. A vehicle routing problem based model and a multiple-step heuristic algorithm were developed to solve this problem. Various side constraints such as mutual exclusion constraints and rounding constraints were considered. The proposed approach has been applied in practice and has shown good performance in both solution quality and efficiency.

Global change and climate-driven invasion of the Pacific oyster (Crassostrea gigas) along European coasts: a bioenergetics modelling approach

Aim The spread of non-indigenous species in marine ecosystems world-wide is one of today's most serious environmental concerns. Using mechanistic modelling, we investigated how global change relates to the invasion of European coasts by a non-native marine invertebrate, the Pacific oyster Crassostrea gigas. Location Bourgneuf Bay on the French Atlantic coast was considered as the northern boundary of C. gigas expansion at the time of its introduction to Europe in the 1970s. From this latitudinal reference, variations in the spatial distribution of the C. gigas reproductive niche were analysed along the north-western European coast from Gibraltar to Norway. Methods The effects of environmental variations on C. gigas physiology and phenology were studied using a bioenergetics model based on Dynamic Energy Budget theory. The model was forced with environmental time series including in situ phytoplankton data, and satellite data of sea surface temperature and suspended particulate matter concentration. Results Simulation outputs were successfully validated against in situ oyster growth data. In Bourgneuf Bay, the rise in seawater temperature and phytoplankton concentration has increased C. gigas reproductive effort and led to precocious spawning periods since the 1960s. At the European scale, seawater temperature increase caused a drastic northward shift (1400 km within 30 years) in the C. gigas reproductive niche and optimal thermal conditions for early life stage development. Main conclusions We demonstrated that the poleward expansion of the invasive species C. gigas is related to global warming and increase in phytoplankton abundance. The combination of mechanistic bioenergetics modelling with in situ and satellite environmental data is a valuable framework for ecosystem studies. It offers a generic approach to analyse historical geographical shifts and to predict the biogeographical changes expected to occur in a climate-changing world.

Investigation of the hazards of substrate current injection: transient external latchup and substrate noise coupling

Substrate current injection is the origin of external latchup and substrate noise coupling. The trigger current for external latchup depends on the duration of the trigger event. A physics-based model is provided to model the effects of aggressor to victim spacing and orientation on transient triggering of external latchup. The latchup susceptibility of standard cell based designs is also investigated. Guard rings are used to reduce latchup susceptibility and to reduce the substrate noise coupled to sensitive analog circuits. In this work, the effectiveness of different guard ring topologies for the reduction of substrate noise coupling is also investigated.

RCOS: Real time context sharing across a fleet of smart mobile devices

Today, biodiversity is endangered by the currently applied intensive farming methods imposed on food producers by intermediate actors (e.g.: retailers). The lack of a direct communication technology between the food producer and the consumer creates dependency on the intermediate actors for both producers and the consumers. A tool allowing producers to directly and efficiently market produce that meets customer demands could greatly reduce the dependency enforced by intermediate actors. To this end, in this thesis, we propose, develop, implement and validate a Real Time Context Sharing (RCOS) system. RCOS takes advantage of the widely used publish/subscribe paradigm to exchange messages between producers and consumers, directly, according to their interest and context. Current systems follow a topic-based model or a content-based model. With RCOS, we propose a context-awareness approach into the matching process of publish/subscribe paradigm. Finally, as a proof of concept, we extend the Apache ActiveMQ Artemis software and create a client prototype. We evaluate our proof of concept for larger scale deployment.

Urban dynamics evaluation of Envigado city

This article presents the methodological conceptualization and the main results of a System Dynamics model, which main objective is to support the housing policies in the city of Envigado -- The used methodology developed a scenario-based model to emulate the approximate evolution of the housing demand and supply for the city, using a scenario of the Gross Domestic Product (GDP) and a housing authorization strategy as input -- Diverse results were obtained, for instance it was found that due to the soil availability, the housing supply reaches the saturation point between 2040 and 2046 -- Finally this article could be considered as an example of how academic tools such as System Dynamics can be used by decisions makers in the government

An Analysis of Colombian Power Market Price Behavior from an Industrial Organization Perspective

We analyze the behavior of spot prices in the Colombian wholesale power market, using a series of models derived from industrial organization theory -- We first create a Cournot-based model that simulates the strategic behavior of the market-leader power generators, which we use to estimate two industrial organization variables, the Index of Residual Demand and the Herfindahl-Hirschman Index (HHI) -- We use these variables to create VAR models that estimate spot prices and power market impulse-response relationships -- The results from these models show that hydroelectric generators can use their water storage capability strategically to affect off-peak prices primarily, while the thermal generators can manage their capacity strategically to affect on-peak prices -- In addition, shocks to the Index of Residual Capacity and to the HHI cause spot price fluctuations, which can be interpreted as the generators´ strategic response to these shocks

Robustness in facility location

Facility location concerns the placement of facilities, for various objectives, by use of mathematical models and solution procedures. Almost all facility location models that can be found in literature are based on minimizing costs or maximizing cover, to cover as much demand as possible. These models are quite efficient for finding an optimal location for a new facility for a particular data set, which is considered to be constant and known in advance. In a real world situation, input data like demand and travelling costs are not fixed, nor known in advance. This uncertainty and uncontrollability can lead to unacceptable losses or even bankruptcy. A way of dealing with these factors is robustness modelling. A robust facility location model aims to locate a facility that stays within predefined limits for all expectable circumstances as good as possible. The deviation robustness concept is used as basis to develop a new competitive deviation robustness model. The competition is modelled with a Huff based model, which calculates the market share of the new facility. Robustness in this model is defined as the ability of a facility location to capture a minimum market share, despite variations in demand. A test case is developed by which algorithms can be tested on their ability to solve robust facility location models. Four stochastic optimization algorithms are considered from which Simulated Annealing turned out to be the most appropriate. The test case is slightly modified for a competitive market situation. With the Simulated Annealing algorithm, the developed competitive deviation model is solved, for three considered norms of deviation. At the end, also a grid search is performed to illustrate the landscape of the objective function of the competitive deviation model. The model appears to be multimodal and seems to be challenging for further research.

Successional specialization in a reptile community cautions against widespread planned burning and complete fire suppression

Summary: Conservation of biodiversity in fire-prone regions depends on understanding responses to fire in animal communities and the mechanisms governing these responses. We collated data from an Australian semi-arid woodland reptile community (4796 individuals captured over 6 years) to: (i) determine the ability of commonly used shorter-term (2 years) surveys to detect reptile responses to time since fire (TSF) and (ii) investigate whether ecological traits of species reliably predicted their responses to fire. Of 16 reptile species analysed, four had responses to TSF consistent with shorter-term surveys and three showed no response to TSF. Nine species had responses to TSF not detected in previous studies using smaller but substantial subsets of the same data. Among the 13 affected species, times of peak abundance ranged from 1 to 50 years after fire. Nocturnal, burrowing species tended to be early successional and leaf-litter dwellers to be late successional, but these were only weak trends. Synthesis and applications. We found only limited support for a generalizable, trait-based model of succession in reptiles. However, our study revealed that the majority of common reptile species in our study region specialize on a post-fire successional stage and may therefore become threatened if homogeneous fire regimes predominate. Our study highlights the importance of interpreting results from time- or sample-limited fire studies of reptiles with the knowledge that many ecological responses may not have been detected. In such cases, an adaptive or precautionary approach to fire management may be necessary. We found only limited support for a generalizable, trait-based model of succession in reptiles. However, our study revealed that the majority of common reptile species in our study region specialize on a post-fire successional stage and may therefore become threatened if homogeneous fire regimes predominate. Our study highlights the importance of interpreting results from time- or sample-limited fire studies of reptiles with the knowledge that many ecological responses may not have been detected. In such cases, an adaptive or precautionary approach to fire management may be necessary.

Detecting subclinical diabetic cardiac autonomic neuropathy by analyzing ventricular repolarization dynamics

In this study, a linear parametric modeling technique was applied to model ventricular repolarization (VR) dynamics. Three features were selected from the surface ECG recordings to investigate the changes in VR dynamics in healthy and cardiac autonomic neuropathy (CAN) participants with diabetes including heart rate variability (calculated from RR intervals), repolarization variability (calculated from QT intervals), and respiration [calculated by ECG-derived respiration (EDR)]. Surface ECGs were recorded in a supine resting position from 80 age-matched participants (40 with no cardiac autonomic neuropathy (NCAN) and 40 with CAN). In the CAN group, 25 participants had early/subclinical CAN (ECAN) and 15 participants were identified with definite/clinical CAN (DCAN). Detecting subclinical CAN is crucial for designing an effective treatment plan to prevent further cardiovascular complications. For CAN diagnosis, VR dynamics was analyzed using linear parametric autoregressive bivariate (ARXAR) and trivariate (ARXXAR) models, which were estimated using 250 beats of derived QT, RR, and EDR time series extracted from the first 5 min of the recorded ECG signal. Results showed that the EDR-based models gave a significantly higher fitting value (p < 0.0001) than models without EDR, which indicates that QT-RR dynamics is better explained by respiratory-information-based models. Moreover, the QT-RR-EDR model fitting values gradually decreased from the NCAN group to ECAN and DCAN groups, which indicate a decoupling of QT from RR and the respiration signal with the increase in severity of CAN. In this study, only the EDR-based model significantly distinguished ECAN and DCAN groups from the NCAN group (p < 0.05) with large effect sizes (Cohen's d > 0.75) showing the effectiveness of this modeling technique in detecting subclinical CAN. In conclusion, the EDR-based trivariate QT-RR-EDR model was found to be better in detecting the presence and severity of CAN than the bivariate QT-RR model. This finding also establishes the importance of adding respiratory information for analyzing the gradual deterioration of normal VR dynamics in pathological conditions, such as diabetic CAN.

Statistical properties of radiation of multiwavelength random DFB fiber laser

In the presented paper, the temporal and statistical properties of a Lyot filter based multiwavelength random DFB fiber laser with a wide flat spectrum, consisting of individual lines, were investigated. It was shown that separate spectral lines forming the laser spectrum have mostly Gaussian statistics and so represent stochastic radiation, but at the same time the entire radiation is not fully stochastic. A simple model, taking into account phenomenological correlations of the lines' initial phases was established. Radiation structure in the experiment and simulation proved to be different, demanding interactions between different lines to be described via a NLSE-based model.

Lung cancer prediction from microarray data by gene expression programming

Lung cancer is a leading cause of cancer-related death worldwide. The early diagnosis of cancer has demonstrated to be greatly helpful for curing the disease effectively. Microarray technology provides a promising approach of exploiting gene profiles for cancer diagnosis. In this study, the authors propose a gene expression programming (GEP)-based model to predict lung cancer from microarray data. The authors use two gene selection methods to extract the significant lung cancer related genes, and accordingly propose different GEP-based prediction models. Prediction performance evaluations and comparisons between the authors' GEP models and three representative machine learning methods, support vector machine, multi-layer perceptron and radial basis function neural network, were conducted thoroughly on real microarray lung cancer datasets. Reliability was assessed by the cross-data set validation. The experimental results show that the GEP model using fewer feature genes outperformed other models in terms of accuracy, sensitivity, specificity and area under the receiver operating characteristic curve. It is concluded that GEP model is a better solution to lung cancer prediction problems.

The use of traits to interpret responses to large scale - edge effects: a study of epigaeic beetle assemblages across a Eucalyptus forest and pine plantation edge

Context: Edge effects due to habitat loss and fragmentation have pervasive impacts on many natural ecosystems worldwide. Objective: We aimed to explore whether, in tandem with the resource-based model of edge effects, species feeding-guild and flight-capacity can help explain species responses to an edge. Methods: We used a two-sided edge gradient that extended from 1000 m into native Eucalyptus forest to 316 m into an exotic pine plantation. We used generalised additive models to examine the continuous responses of beetle species, feeding-guild species richness and flight-capable group species richness to the edge gradient and environmental covariates. Results: Phytophagous species richness was directly related to variation in vegetation along the edge gradient. There were more flight-capable species in Eucalyptus forest and more flightless species in exotic pine plantation. Many individual species exhibited multiple-peaked edge-profiles. Conclusions: The resource based model for edge effects can be used in tandem with traits such as feeding-guild and flight-capacity to understand drivers of large scale edge responses. Some trait-groups can show generalisable responses that can be linked with drivers such as vegetation richness and habitat structure. Many trait-group responses, however, are less generalisable and not explained by easily measured habitat variables. Difficulties in linking traits with resources along the edge could be due to unmeasured variation and indirect effects. Some species’ responses reached the limits of the edge gradient demonstrating the need to examine edge effects at large scales, such as kilometres.