A maximum likelihood framework for protein design

Affiliation: Claudia Kleinman, Nicolas Rodrigue & Hervé Philippe : Département de biochimie, Faculté de médecine, Université de Montréal

Analyse de la corrélation conditionnelle dérivée de la coévolution d’un système de trois gènes par un modèle du maximum de vraisemblance

Les gènes codant pour des protéines peuvent souvent être regroupés et intégrés en modules fonctionnels par rapport à un organelle. Ces modules peuvent avoir des composantes qui suivent une évolution corrélée pouvant être conditionnelle à un phénotype donné. Les gènes liés à la motilité possèdent cette caractéristique, car ils se suivent en cascade en réponse à des stimuli extérieurs. L’hyperthermophilie, d’autre part, est interreliée à la reverse gyrase, cependant aucun autre élément qui pourrait y être associé avec certitude n’est connu. Ceci peut être dû à un déplacement de gènes non orthologues encore non résolu. En utilisant une approche bio-informatique, une modélisation mathématique d’évolution conditionnelle corrélée pour trois gènes a été développée et appliquée sur des profils phylétiques d’archaea. Ceci a permis d’établir des théories quant à la fonction potentielle du gène du flagelle FlaD/E ainsi que l’histoire évolutive des gènes lui étant liés et ayant contribué à sa formation. De plus, une histoire évolutive théorique a été établie pour une ligase liée à l’hyperthermophilie.

Revisiting optimization algorithms for maximum likelihood estimation

Parmi les méthodes d’estimation de paramètres de loi de probabilité en statistique, le maximum de vraisemblance est une des techniques les plus populaires, comme, sous des conditions l´egères, les estimateurs ainsi produits sont consistants et asymptotiquement efficaces. Les problèmes de maximum de vraisemblance peuvent être traités comme des problèmes de programmation non linéaires, éventuellement non convexe, pour lesquels deux grandes classes de méthodes de résolution sont les techniques de région de confiance et les méthodes de recherche linéaire. En outre, il est possible d’exploiter la structure de ces problèmes pour tenter d’accélerer la convergence de ces méthodes, sous certaines hypothèses. Dans ce travail, nous revisitons certaines approches classiques ou récemment d´eveloppées en optimisation non linéaire, dans le contexte particulier de l’estimation de maximum de vraisemblance. Nous développons également de nouveaux algorithmes pour résoudre ce problème, reconsidérant différentes techniques d’approximation de hessiens, et proposons de nouvelles méthodes de calcul de pas, en particulier dans le cadre des algorithmes de recherche linéaire. Il s’agit notamment d’algorithmes nous permettant de changer d’approximation de hessien et d’adapter la longueur du pas dans une direction de recherche fixée. Finalement, nous évaluons l’efficacité numérique des méthodes proposées dans le cadre de l’estimation de modèles de choix discrets, en particulier les modèles logit mélangés.

Carboxydothermus hydrogenoformans comme catalyseur biologique pour la conversion du monoxyde de carbone en hydrogène simultanément a la minéralisation de calcium et phosphate

La gazéification est aujourd'hui l'une des stratégies les plus prometteuses pour valoriser les déchets en énergie. Cette technologie thermo-chimique permet une réduction de 95 % de la masse des intrants et génère des cendres inertes ainsi que du gaz de synthèse (syngaz). Le syngaz est un combustible gazeux composé principalement de monoxyde de carbone (CO), d'hydrogène (H2) et de dioxyde de carbone (CO2). Le syngaz peut être utilisé pour produire de la chaleur et de l'électricité. Il est également la pierre angulaire d'un grand nombre de produits à haute valeur ajoutée, allant de l'éthanol à l'ammoniac et l'hydrogène pur. Les applications en aval de la production de syngaz sont dictées par son pouvoir calorifique, lui-même dépendant de la teneur du gaz en H2. L’augmentation du contenu du syngaz en H2 est rendu possible par la conversion catalytique à la vapeur d’eau, largement répandu dans le cadre du reformage du méthane pour la production d'hydrogène. Au cours de cette réaction, le CO est converti en H2 et CO2 selon : CO + H2O → CO2 + H2. Ce processus est possible grâce à des catalyseurs métalliques mis en contact avec le CO et de la vapeur. La conversion catalytique à la vapeur d’eau a jusqu'ici été réservé pour de grandes installations industrielles car elle nécessite un capital et des charges d’exploitations très importantes. Par conséquent, les installations de plus petite échelle et traitant des intrants de faible qualité (biomasse, déchets, boues ...), n'ont pas accès à cette technologie. Ainsi, la seule utilisation de leur syngaz à faible pouvoir calorifique, est limitée à la génération de chaleur ou, tout au plus, d'électricité. Afin de permettre à ces installations une gamme d’application plus vaste de leurs syngaz, une alternative économique à base de catalyseur biologique est proposée par l’utilisation de bactéries hyperthermophiles hydrogénogènes. L'objectif de cette thèse est d'utiliser Carboxydothermus hydrogenoformans, une bactérie thermophile carboxydotrophe hydrogénogène comme catalyseur biologique pour la conversion du monoxyde de carbone en hydrogène. Pour cela, l’impact d'un phénomène de biominéralisation sur la production d’H2 a été étudié. Ensuite, la faisabilité et les limites de l’utilisation de la souche dans un bioréacteur ont été évaluées. Tout d'abord, la caractérisation de la phase inorganique prédominante lorsque C. hydrogenoformans est inoculé dans le milieu DSMZ, a révélé une biominéralisation de phosphate de calcium (CaP) cristallin en deux phases. L’analyse par diffraction des rayons X et spectrométrie infrarouge à transformée de Fourier de ce matériau biphasique indique une signature caractéristique de la Mg-whitlockite, alors que les images obtenues par microscopie électronique à transmission ont montré l'existence de nanotiges cristallines s’apparentant à de l’hydroxyapatite. Dans les deux cas, le mode de biominéralisation semble être biologiquement induit plutôt que contrôlé. L'impact du précipité de CaP endogène sur le transfert de masse du CO et la production d’H2 a ensuite été étudié. Les résultats ont été comparés aux valeurs obtenues dans un milieu où aucune précipitation n'est observée. Dans le milieu DSMZ, le KLa apparent (0.22 ± 0.005 min-1) et le rendement de production d’H2 (89.11 ± 6.69 %) étaient plus élevés que ceux obtenus avec le milieu modifié (0.19 ± 0.015 min-1 et 82.60 ± 3.62% respectivement). La présence du précipité n'a eu aucune incidence sur l'activité microbienne. En somme, le précipité de CaP offre une nouvelle stratégie pour améliorer les performances de transfert de masse du CO en utilisant les propriétés hydrophobes de gaz. En second lieu, la conversion du CO en H2 par la souche Carboxydothermus hydrogenoformans fut étudiée et optimisée dans un réacteur gazosiphon de 35 L. Parmi toutes les conditions opérationnelles, le paramètre majeur fut le ratio du débit de recirculation du gaz sur le débit d'alimentation en CO (QR:Qin). Ce ratio impacte à la fois l'activité biologique et le taux de transfert de masse gaz-liquide. En effet, au dessus d’un ratio de 40, les performances de conversion du CO en H2 sont limitées par l’activité biologique alors qu’en dessous, elles sont limitées par le transfert de masse. Cela se concrétise par une efficacité de conversion maximale de 90.4 ± 0.3 % et une activité spécifique de 2.7 ± 0.4 molCO·g–1VSS·d–1. Malgré des résultats prometteurs, les performances du bioréacteur ont été limitées par une faible densité cellulaire, typique de la croissance planctonique de C. hydrogenoformans. Cette limite est le facteur le plus contraignant pour des taux de charge de CO plus élevés. Ces performances ont été comparées à celles obtenues dans un réacteur à fibres creuses (BRFC) inoculé par la souche. En dépit d’une densité cellulaire et d’une activité volumétrique plus élevées, les performances du BRFC à tout le moins cinétiquement limitées quand elles n’étaient pas impactées par le transfert de masse, l'encrassement et le vieillissement de la membrane. Afin de parer à la dégénérescence de C. hydrogenoformans en cas de pénurie de CO, la croissance de la bactérie sur pyruvate en tant que seule source de carbone a été également caractérisée. Fait intéressant, en présence simultanée de pyruvate et de CO, C. hydrogenoformans n’a amorcé la consommation de pyruvate qu’une fois le CO épuisé. Cela a été attribué à un mécanisme d'inhibition du métabolisme du pyruvate par le CO, faisant ainsi du pyruvate le candidat idéal pour un système in situ de secours.

Étude du maximum et des hauts points de la marche aléatoire branchante inhomogène et du champ libre gaussien inhomogène

Voir la bibliographie du mémoire pour les références du résumé. See the thesis`s bibliography for the references in the summary.

Development of Elastomeric Hybrid Composite Based on Synthesised Manosilica and Short Nylon Fiber

Nanoscale silica was synthesized by precipitation method using sodium silicate and dilute hydrochloric acid under controlled conditions. The synthesized silica was characterized by Scanning Electron Microscopy (SEM), Transmission Electron Microscopy (TEM), BET adsorption and X-Ray Diffraction (XRD). The particle size of silica was calculated to be 13 nm from the XRD results and the surface area was found to be 295 m2/g by BET method. The performance of this synthesized nanosilica as a reinforcing filler in natural rubber (NR) compound was investigated. The commercial silica was used as the reference material. Nanosilica was found to be effective reinforcing filler in natural rubber compound. Filler-matrix interaction was better for nanosilica than the commercial silica. The synthesized nanosilica was used in place of conventional silica in HRH (hexamethylene tetramine, resorcinol and silica) bonding system for natural rubber and styrene butadiene rubber / Nylon 6 short fiber composites. The efficiency of HRH bonding system based on nanosilica was better. Nanosilica was also used as reinforcing filler in rubber / Nylon 6 short fiber hybrid composite. The cure, mechanical, ageing, thermal and dynamic mechanical properties of nanosilica / Nylon 6 short fiber / elastomeric hybrid composites were studied in detail. The matrices used were natural rubber (NR), nitrile rubber (NBR), styrene butadiene rubber (SBR) and chloroprene rubber (CR). Fiber loading was varied from 0 to 30 parts per hundred rubber (phr) and silica loading was varied from 0 to 9 phr. Hexa:Resorcinol:Silica (HRH) ratio was maintained as 2:2:1. HRH loading was adjusted to 16% of the fiber loading. Minimum torque, maximum torque and cure time increased with silica loading. Cure rate increased with fiber loading and decreased with silica content. The hybrid composites showed improved mechanical properties in the presence of nanosilica. Tensile strength showed a dip at 10 phr fiber loading in the case of NR and CR while it continuously increased with fiber loading in the case of NBR and SBR. The nanosilica improved the tensile strength, modulus and tear strength better than the conventional silica. Abrasion resistance and hardness were also better for the nanosilica composites. Resilience and compression set were adversely affected. Hybrid composites showed anisotropy in mechanical properties. Retention in ageing improved with fiber loading and was better for nanosilica-filled hybrid composites. The nanosilica also improved the thermal stability of the hybrid composite better than the commercial silica. All the composites underwent two-step thermal degradation. Kinetic studies showed that the degradation of all the elastomeric composites followed a first-order reaction. Dynamic mechanical analysis revealed that storage modulus (E’) and loss modulus (E”) increased with nanosiica content, fiber loading and frequency for all the composites, independent of the matrix. The highest rate of increase was registered for NBR rubber.

An investigation into observational characteristics of rainfall and temperature in Central Northeast India—a historical perspective 1889–2008

Mann–Kendall non-parametric test was employed for observational trend detection of monthly, seasonal and annual precipitation of five meteorological subdivisions of Central Northeast India (CNE India) for different 30-year normal periods (NP) viz. 1889–1918 (NP1), 1919–1948 (NP2), 1949–1978 (NP3) and 1979–2008 (NP4). The trends of maximum and minimum temperatures were also investigated. The slopes of the trend lines were determined using the method of least square linear fitting. An application of Morelet wavelet analysis was done with monthly rainfall during June– September, total rainfall during monsoon season and annual rainfall to know the periodicity and to test the significance of periodicity using the power spectrum method. The inferences figure out from the analyses will be helpful to the policy managers, planners and agricultural scientists to work out irrigation and water management options under various possible climatic eventualities for the region. The long-term (1889–2008) mean annual rainfall of CNE India is 1,195.1 mm with a standard deviation of 134.1 mm and coefficient of variation of 11%. There is a significant decreasing trend of 4.6 mm/year for Jharkhand and 3.2 mm/day for CNE India. Since rice crop is the important kharif crop (May– October) in this region, the decreasing trend of rainfall during themonth of July may delay/affect the transplanting/vegetative phase of the crop, and assured irrigation is very much needed to tackle the drought situation. During themonth of December, all the meteorological subdivisions except Jharkhand show a significant decreasing trend of rainfall during recent normal period NP4. The decrease of rainfall during December may hamper sowing of wheat, which is the important rabi crop (November–March) in most parts of this region. Maximum temperature shows significant rising trend of 0.008°C/year (at 0.01 level) during monsoon season and 0.014°C/year (at 0.01 level) during post-monsoon season during the period 1914– 2003. The annual maximum temperature also shows significant increasing trend of 0.008°C/year (at 0.01 level) during the same period. Minimum temperature shows significant rising trend of 0.012°C/year (at 0.01 level) during postmonsoon season and significant falling trend of 0.002°C/year (at 0.05 level) during monsoon season. A significant 4– 8 years peak periodicity band has been noticed during September over Western UP, and 30–34 years periodicity has been observed during July over Bihar subdivision. However, as far as CNE India is concerned, no significant periodicity has been noticed in any of the time series.

Maximum mass of neutron stars

We determine the structure of neutron stars within a Brueckner-Hartree-Fock approach based on realistic nucleon-nucleon, nucleon-hyperon, and hyperon-hyperon interactions. Our results indicate rather low maximum masses below 1.4 solar masses. This feature is insensitive to the nucleonic part of the EOS due to a strong compensation mechanism caused by the appearance of hyperons and represents thus strong evidence for the presence of nonbaryonic "quark" matter in the interior of heavy stars.

Production, purification and partial characterization of a novel protease from marine Engyodontium album BTMFS10 under solid state fermentation

Engyodontium album isolated from marine sediment produced protease, which was active at pH 11. Process parameters influencing the production of alkaline protease by marine E. album was optimized. Particle size of <425 mm, 60% initial moisture content and incubation at 25 8C for 120 h were optimal for protease production under solid state fermentation (SSF) using wheat bran. The organism has two optimal pH (5 and 10) for maximal enzyme production. Sucrose as carbon source, ammonium hydrogen carbonate as additional inorganic nitrogen source and amino acid leucine enhanced enzyme production during SSF. The protease was purified and partially characterized. A 16-fold purified enzyme was obtained after ammonium sulphate precipitation and ion-exchange chromatography. Molecular weight of the purified enzyme protein was recorded approximately 38 kDa by SDS-PAGE. The enzyme showed maximum activity at pH 11 and 60 8C. Activity at high temperature and high alkaline pH suggests suitability of the enzyme for its application in detergent industry

Lipase from marine Aspergillus awamori BTMFW032: Production, partial purification and application in oil effluent treatment

Marine fungus BTMFW032, isolated from seawater and identified as Aspergillus awamori, was observed to produce an extracellular lipase, which could reduce 92% fat and oil content in the effluent laden with oil. In this study, medium for lipase production under submerged fermentation was optimized statistically employing response surface method toward maximal enzyme production. Medium with soyabean meal- 0.77% (w/v); (NH4)2SO4-0.1 M; KH2PO4-0.05 M; rice bran oil-2% (v/v); CaCl2-0.05 M; PEG 6000-0.05% (w/v); NaCl-1% (w/v); inoculum-1% (v/v); pH 3.0; incubation temperature 35 8C and incubation period-five days were identified as optimal conditions for maximal lipase production. The time course experiment under optimized condition, after statistical modeling, indicated that enzyme production commenced after 36 hours of incubation and reached a maximum after 96 hours (495.0 U/ml), whereas maximal specific activity of enzyme was recorded at 108 hours (1164.63 U/mg protein). After optimization an overall 4.6- fold increase in lipase production was achieved. Partial purification by (NH4)2SO4 precipitation and ion exchange chromatography resulted in 33.7% final yield. The lipase was noted to have a molecular mass of 90 kDa and optimal activity at pH 7 and 40 8C. Results indicated the scope for potential application of this marine fungal lipase in bioremediation.

The role of ligneous vegetation for livestock nutrition in the sub-Sahelian and Sudanian zones of West Africa: Potential effects of climate change

Climate change and variability in sub-Saharan West Africa is expected to have negative consequences for crop and livestock farming due to the strong dependence of these sectors on rainfall and natural resources, and the low adaptive capacity of crops farmers, agro-pastoralist and pastoralists in the region. The objective of this PhD research was to investigate the anticipated impacts of expected future climate change and variability on nutrition and grazing management of livestock in the prevailing extensive agro-pastoral and pastoral systems of the Sahelian and Sudanian zones of Burkina Faso. To achieve this, three studies were undertaken in selected village territories (100 km² each) in the southern Sahelian (Taffogo), northern Sudanian (Nobere, Safane) and southern Sudanian (Sokouraba) zone of the country during 2009 and 2010. The choice of two villages in the northern Sudanian zone was guided by the dichotomy between intense agricultural land use and high population density near Safane, and lower agricultural land use in the tampon zone between the village of Nobere and the National Park Kaboré Tambi of Pô. Using global positioning and geographical information systems tools, the spatio-temporal variation in the use of grazing areas by cattle, sheep and goats, and in their foraging behaviour in the four villages was assessed by monitoring three herds each per species during a one-year cycle (Chapter 2). Maximum itinerary lengths (km/d) were observed in the hot dry season (March-May); they were longer for sheep (18.8) and cattle (17.4) than for goats (10.5, p<0.05). Daily total grazing time spent on pasture ranged from 6 - 11 h with cattle staying longer on pasture than small ruminants (p<0.05). Feeding time accounted for 52% - 72% of daily time on pasture, irrespective of species. Herds spent longer time on pasture and walked farther distances in the southern Sahelian than the two Sudanian zones (p<0.01), while daily feeding time was longer in the southern Sudanian than in the other two zones (p>0.05). Proportional time spent resting decreased from the rainy (June - October) to the cool (November - February) and hot dry season (p<0.05), while in parallel the proportion of walking time increased. Feeding time of all species was to a significantly high proportion spent on wooded land (tree crown cover 5-10%, or shrub cover >10%) in the southern Sahelian zone, and on forest land (tree crown cover >10%) in the two Sudanian zones, irrespective of season. It is concluded that with the expansion of cropland in the whole region, remaining islands of wooded land, including also fields fallowed for three or more years with their considerable shrub cover, are particularly valuable pasturing areas for ruminant stock. Measures must be taken that counteract the shrinking of wooded land and forests across the whole region, including also active protection and (re)establishment of drought-tolerant fodder trees. Observation of the selection behaviour of the above herds of cattle and small ruminant as far as browse species were concerned, and interviews with 75 of Fulani livestock keepers on use of browse as feed by their ruminant stock and as remedies for animal disease treatment was undertaken (Chapter 3) in order to evaluate the consequence of climate change for the contribution of browse to livestock nutrition and animal health in the extensive grazing-based livestock systems. The results indicated that grazing cattle and small ruminants do make considerable use of browse species on pasture across the studied agro-ecological zones. Goats spent more time (p<0.01) feeding on browse species than sheep and cattle, which spent a low to moderate proportion of their feeding time on browsing in any of the study sites. As far as the agro-ecological zones were concerned, the contribution of browse species to livestock nutrition was more important in the southern Sahelian and northern Sudanian zone than the southern Sudanian zone, and this contribution is higher during the cold and hot dry season than during the rainy season. A total of 75 browse species were selected on pasture year around, whereby cattle strongly preferred Afzelia africana, Pterocarpus erinaceus and Piliostigma sp., while sheep and goats primarily fed on Balanites aegyptiaca, Ziziphus mauritiana and Acacia sp. Crude protein concentration (in DM) of pods or fruits of the most important browse species selected by goats, sheep and cattle ranged from 7% to 13% for pods, and from 10% to 18% for foliage. The concentration of digestible organic matter of preferred browse species mostly ranged from 40% to 60%, and the concentrations of total phenols, condensed tannins and acid detergent lignin were low. Linear regression analyses showed that browse preference on pasture is strongly related to its contents (% of DM) of CP, ADF, NDF and OM digestibility. Interviewed livestock keepers reported that browse species are increasingly use by their grazing animals, while for animal health care use of tree- and shrub-based remedies decreased over the last two decades. It is concluded that due to climate change with expected negative impact on the productivity of the herbaceous layer of communal pastures browse fodder will gain in importance for animal nutrition. Therefore re-establishment and dissemination of locally adapted browse species preferred by ruminants is needed to increase the nutritional situation of ruminant stock in the region and contribute to species diversity and soil fertility restoration in degraded pasture areas. In Chapter 4 a combination of household surveys and participatory research approaches was used in the four villages, and additionally in the village of Zogoré (southern Sahelian zone) and of Karangasso Vigué (northern Sudanian zone) to investigate pastoralists’ (n= 76) and agro-pastoralists’ (n= 83) perception of climate change, and their adaptation strategies in crop and livestock production at farm level. Across the three agro-ecological zones, the majority of the interviewees perceived an increase in maximum day temperatures and decrease of total annual rainfall over the last two decades. Perceptions of change in climate patterns were in line with meteorological data for increased temperatures while for total rainfall farmers’ views contrasted the rainfall records which showed a slight increase of precipitation. According to all interviewees climate change and variability have negative impacts on their crop and animal husbandry, and most of them already adopted some coping and adaptation strategies at farm level to secure their livelihoods and reduce negative impacts on their farming system. Although these strategies are valuable and can help crop and livestock farmers to cope with the recurrent droughts and climate variability, they are not effective against expected extreme climate events. Governmental and non-governmental organisations should develop effective policies and strategies at local, regional and national level to support farmers in their endeavours to cope with climate change phenomena; measures should be site-specific and take into account farmers’ experiences and strategies already in place.

Downscaling and Modeling the Effects of Climate Change on Hydrology and Water Resources in the Upper Blue Nile River Basin, Ethiopia

The Upper Blue Nile River Basin (UBNRB) located in the western part of Ethiopia, between 7° 45’ and 12° 45’N and 34° 05’ and 39° 45’E has a total area of 174962 km2 . More than 80% of the population in the basin is engaged in agricultural activities. Because of the particularly dry climate in the basin, likewise to most other regions of Ethiopia, the agricultural productivity depends to a very large extent on the occurrence of the seasonal rains. This situation makes agriculture highly vulnerable to the impact of potential climate hazards which are about to inflict Africa as a whole and Ethiopia in particular. To analyze these possible impacts of future climate change on the water resources in the UBNRB, in the first part of the thesis climate projection for precipitation, minimum and maximum temperatures in the basin, using downscaled predictors from three GCMs (ECHAM5, GFDL21 and CSIRO-MK3) under SRES scenarios A1B and A2 have been carried out. The two statistical downscaling models used are SDSM and LARS-WG, whereby SDSM is used to downscale ECHAM5-predictors alone and LARS-WG is applied in both mono-model mode with predictors from ECHAM5 and in multi-model mode with combined predictors from ECHAM5, GFDL21 and CSIRO-MK3. For the calibration/validation of the downscaled models, observed as well as NCEP climate data in the 1970 - 2000 reference period is used. The future projections are made for two time periods; 2046-2065 (2050s) and 2081-2100 (2090s). For the 2050s future time period the downscaled climate predictions indicate rise of 0.6°C to 2.7°C for the seasonal maximum temperatures Tmax, and of 0.5°C to 2.44°C for the minimum temperatures Tmin. Similarly, during the 2090s the seasonal Tmax increases by 0.9°C to 4.63°C and Tmin by 1°C to 4.6°C, whereby these increases are generally higher for the A2 than for the A1B scenario. For most sub-basins of the UBNRB, the predicted changes of Tmin are larger than those of Tmax. Meanwhile, for the precipitation, both downscaling tools predict large changes which, depending on the GCM employed, are such that the spring and summer seasons will be experiencing decreases between -36% to 1% and the autumn and winter seasons an increase of -8% to 126% for the two future time periods, regardless of the SRES scenario used. In the second part of the thesis the semi-distributed, physically based hydrologic model, SWAT (Soil Water Assessment Tool), is used to evaluate the impacts of the above-predicted future climate change on the hydrology and water resources of the UBNRB. Hereby the downscaled future predictors are used as input in the SWAT model to predict streamflow of the Upper Blue Nile as well as other relevant water resources parameter in the basin. Calibration and validation of the streamflow model is done again on 1970-2000 measured discharge at the outlet gage station Eldiem, whereby the most sensitive out the numerous “tuneable” calibration parameters in SWAT have been selected by means of a sophisticated sensitivity analysis. Consequently, a good calibration/validation model performance with a high NSE-coefficient of 0.89 is obtained. The results of the future simulations of streamflow in the basin, using both SDSM- and LARS-WG downscaled output in SWAT reveal a decline of -10% to -61% of the future Blue Nile streamflow, And, expectedly, these obviously adverse effects on the future UBNRB-water availibiliy are more exacerbated for the 2090’s than for the 2050’s, regardless of the SRES.

Maximum Entropy Discrimination

We present a general framework for discriminative estimation based on the maximum entropy principle and its extensions. All calculations involve distributions over structures and/or parameters rather than specific settings and reduce to relative entropy projections. This holds even when the data is not separable within the chosen parametric class, in the context of anomaly detection rather than classification, or when the labels in the training set are uncertain or incomplete. Support vector machines are naturally subsumed under this class and we provide several extensions. We are also able to estimate exactly and efficiently discriminative distributions over tree structures of class-conditional models within this framework. Preliminary experimental results are indicative of the potential in these techniques.

Biologically Plausible Neural Circuits for Realization of Maximum Operations

Object recognition in the visual cortex is based on a hierarchical architecture, in which specialized brain regions along the ventral pathway extract object features of increasing levels of complexity, accompanied by greater invariance in stimulus size, position, and orientation. Recent theoretical studies postulate a non-linear pooling function, such as the maximum (MAX) operation could be fundamental in achieving such invariance. In this paper, we are concerned with neurally plausible mechanisms that may be involved in realizing the MAX operation. Four canonical circuits are proposed, each based on neural mechanisms that have been previously discussed in the context of cortical processing. Through simulations and mathematical analysis, we examine the relative performance and robustness of these mechanisms. We derive experimentally verifiable predictions for each circuit and discuss their respective physiological considerations.